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大类资产早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:15
研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...
深夜,中概股高开
证券时报· 2025-06-11 14:56
李成钢在中美经贸磋商机制首次会议结束后告诉中外媒体记者,过去两天,中美双方团队的沟通是"非常专 业、理性、深入、坦诚的"。 中概股大幅高开。 当地时间6月11日,美股三大指数集体小幅高开。中概股大幅高开,纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘涨1.1%,盘初 涨幅一度扩大至1.5%以上,随后有所收窄,目前涨幅约0.5%。 消息面上,当地时间6月9日至10日,中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长 贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦诚、 深入的对话,就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见,就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会 谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致,就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 据新华社消息,中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢10日晚在英国伦敦说,过去两天,中美双方团队 进行了深入交流,就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 马斯克突然发声:后悔了!特斯拉股价大涨 丨 刚 ...
“最被冷落的资产”要翻身?华尔街分析师看好小盘股逆袭
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-10 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The sentiment surrounding U.S. small-cap stocks is extremely low, which may create an opportunity for a significant rebound, according to Julian Emanuel from Evercore ISI [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Small-cap stocks have been underperforming compared to large-cap stocks for over a decade, and many on Wall Street consider them one of the least favored sectors [1]. - An internal survey by Evercore ISI indicates that the market's expectation for small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks by the end of 2025 has dropped to single-digit levels [1]. - Despite the weak performance of small-cap stocks year-to-date, Emanuel believes the current negative sentiment is a positive sign for future performance [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Small-Cap Stocks - Seasonal factors may trigger a rally, as historical data shows that small-cap stocks typically perform well in June, possibly linked to the annual adjustments of the FTSE Russell index [2]. - Small-cap stocks are currently valued lower than their long-term averages, which could support a continuation of the rally [2]. - Evercore ISI forecasts a 0.9% growth in U.S. GDP for 2025, which is expected to avoid a recession while not being strong enough to halt the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [2]. Group 3: External Influences - Easing trade war concerns and the passage of key budget proposals by President Trump may provide additional momentum for small-cap stocks [3]. - Previous predictions by analysts, such as Tom Lee from Fundstrat, suggested a potential 40% rebound for small-cap stocks, which saw some validation in mid-2020 but ultimately did not sustain [3]. - As of now, the Russell 2000 index has declined by 3.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has increased by over 2%, although small-cap stocks have shown a strong start in June [3].
博时基金宏观观点:关注5月经济金融数据和中美第二轮谈判
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-06-10 08:57
港股方面,近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强,短期趋势或延续;从中期来看, AH股溢价当前处于较低位置,美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高,这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面,关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪,但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累,OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险,油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面,关税带来的经济政策不确定性,以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持,短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑:叶景) 海外方面,美国5月就业数据出现一定分化,新增非农整体超预期,ADP偏弱,美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险,但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹,考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击,美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹,美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态,市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面,中美关税缓和后,5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖,生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升,印证了出口链景气度的修复;购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降,反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性,预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面,债券方面,上周央行超预 ...
高盛交易台:股票多空头寸及关键水平
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-10 02:16
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - CTAs are currently net short on RTY by $1.8 billion, with expectations of buying approximately $2.5 billion in the next week and $5.2 billion in the next month [2] - The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate increased by 1.29% from May 30 to June 5, outperforming the MSCI World TR which rose by 0.73% during the same period [2] - A significant portion of stocks (approximately 40%) is expected to enter a blackout period starting around June 16, estimated to last until July 25 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections CTA Corner - Over the next week, buyers are expected to contribute $2.77 billion, with $2.40 billion directed into the US market [5] - For the upcoming month, buyers are projected to contribute $8.19 billion, with $5.79 billion into the US [5] Key Levels for SPX - Short-term pivot level is at 5786, medium-term at 5793, and long-term at 5554 [5] Market Flows - Global equities saw net buying for the fifth consecutive week, with long buys outpacing short sales at a ratio of 1.7 to 1 [40] - Hedge funds have net bought US equities for five weeks, primarily driven by long buys in single stocks [42] - The US Energy long/short ratio is currently at 1.46, the highest level since October 2023 [42] Sentiment Indicators - The GS Sentiment Indicator decreased despite a market rally of 1.5%, indicating cautious investor sentiment [60] - The SPX put-call skew experienced a significant decline, suggesting increased demand for upside through call options [65]
大类资产早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 05:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/06/06, the US was at 4.508, with a latest change of 0.115, a one - year change of - 0.043. Some yields have increased recently, while others have decreased [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to 10 - year yields, there are differences among economies. The US 2 - year yield on 2025/06/06 was 3.870, with a latest change of - 0.090 and a one - year change of - 1.060 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies show different trends. For instance, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.560 on 2025/06/06, with a latest change of - 0.50% and a one - year change of 7.74% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices also have diverse performances. The S&P 500 on 2025/06/06 was 6000.360, with a latest change of 1.03% and a one - year change of 13.09% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (investment - grade and high - yield) in different regions (US, eurozone, emerging economies) have various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.49% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 3385.36 with a 0.04% change. Different indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., have different closing prices and percentage changes [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for different indices are provided, such as 12.56 for the CSI 300, with corresponding环比 changes [3]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data (1/PE - 10 rate) and their环比 changes are given for multiple indices [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market are presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 518.24 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and different indices are provided, along with环比 changes [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures like IF, IH, and IC are given [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) are shown. For example, T00 closed at 108.710 with a 0.03% change [4]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes are provided [4].
中美双雄竞智,期市屏息敛声:申万期货早间评论-20250609
申银万国期货研究· 2025-06-09 00:46
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].
美银Hartnett:特朗普减税像共和党,花钱像民主党,美股如同“80年代去监管+90年代科技狂潮”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-08 10:59
美国市场正处于一个罕见的"叠加时刻":特朗普既像典型的共和党那样大力减税,又延续民主党级别的 超高支出,美股则重现80年代去监管与90年代科技牛市的合体盛宴。 近日,美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新报告中犀利指出,美国政府正在以7万亿美元的支出 对抗5万亿美元的收入,2万亿美元的赤字缺口让美元在5%国债收益率下依然暴跌。市场欢乐的背后, 是美元崩跌、债务激增与AI驱动下的不确定性。 "减税+撒钱"下的危局,美元失色,债务无底 美银的数据显示,自大选以来,代表权贵科技与金融的"bro billionaire"股票篮子暴涨45%,而代表特 朗普票仓的小盘股罗素2000指数却下跌7%。关税、减税、制造业回流、去监管——所有利好政策一应 俱全,但小投资者却无人问津。 这种分化正在重塑市场格局。Z世代和千禧一代面对高不可攀的房价选择了退却,转而通过股票和加密 货币为未来储蓄并对冲AI风险。经纪交易商与房屋建筑商的比值已达16年高点,而20-24岁大学毕业生 的失业率在过去三个月飙升至6%,远高于2023年12月的4%。 特朗普"既要减税,也要豪掷",7万亿美元的财政支出,配合每年5万亿美元的收入 ...
海外高频 | 中美第二轮贸易谈判将启,美国非农就业强于预期(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-08 04:00
大类资产&海外事件&数据:中美第二轮贸易谈判将启,美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨,美债利率大幅上行。 当周,海外多数上涨,纳指上涨2.2%,仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%;美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2,离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶,COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布,将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判,或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期,欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人,市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%,但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象;5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5;欧央行6 月会议降息25BP,拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级;美国经济放缓超预期;美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...
大类资产早报-20250606
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 05:19
研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/06 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,客户应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交 易后果,凡据此入市者,我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我们均不承担任何责任。 国外货币市场 债 券 市 场 国内债券市场 国外债券市场 股 票 市 场 汇 率 市 场 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...