Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily morning observations on various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each commodity [5][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro changes increase, and the overall pressure on meal products is rising. The international soybean pressure is high, and the domestic soybean meal may face more downward pressure. It is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads, and sell call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The price of foreign sugar has fallen, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to open lower. The global sugar production is increasing, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the foreign market. It is recommended to short on rallies [17][18][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is to maintain a shock. The palm oil export volume in Malaysia has increased, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is ahead. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on significant pullbacks [20][21][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The new grain spot price has rebounded, and the futures market is expected to be strongly volatile. The US corn production may be adjusted, and the domestic new corn supply is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions on the 05 and 07 contracts on dips [23][24][25]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price is generally stable. The short - term supply is still high, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [25][26][27]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts may experience a reduction in production, and the short - term trend is to be strongly volatile. The spot price is stable, and the oil mills are starting to purchase. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 contracts on dips and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [28][29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is fair, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions [31][32][35]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and the fruit price is rising steadily. The price of high - quality apples is expected to be firm, and the price gap will be large. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [36][37][39]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton purchase progress has accelerated, and the cotton price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will maintain a volatile trend [40][41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by coal mine safety accidents, the black metal sector has rebounded. The steel production is decreasing, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on the shock and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips [46][47][48]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is disturbed, and there is support at the bottom. The coal mine safety supervision is strengthening, and the steel mill profit is not good. It is recommended to take profits on some long positions and go long on dips [48][49][50]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. The global iron ore supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to short in the medium - term and conduct cash - futures reverse spreads [51][52][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment drives the rebound, but the demand pressure still exists. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to expect a rebound driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment, but the price will be in a bottom - shock state [53][54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trump's trade stance has softened, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. The precious metals prices have fallen after a long - term rise. It is recommended to take profits and wait for new long - entry opportunities [59][60][61]. - **Copper**: The supply - side disturbances are increasing, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The copper supply is affected, and the consumption is average. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold cross - market positive spreads [61][64][65]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is mainly grinding at a low level. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the supply - side changes [65][68][69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to the macro - expectations this week, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The macro - sentiment is improving, and the consumption is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [70][74][75]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro - panic sentiment has improved, and the alloy price can be bought on dips. The tariff panic has eased, and the demand is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and attention should be paid to the export volume and frequency. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the export window is open. It is recommended to close out some profitable short positions and short on rallies [78][79][82]. - **Lead**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the lead price may decline. The domestic lead supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold profitable short positions and short on rallies [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the shock range [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak demand tests the cost support. The price is below the cost, and the demand is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain a weak - shock pattern [91][92][93]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range - shock state, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term supply is slightly excessive, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a full pullback [93][94][95]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and long positions should be held. The capacity integration is progressing, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions [96][97][98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand provides support, the supply is uncertain, and the lithium price is rising. The demand is stable, and the supply has uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [97][98][100]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - disturbances are large, and the tin price may be under pressure. The short - term consumption is weak, and the price is in a range - shock state. It is expected that the tin price will be under pressure [100][101][102].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market updates. It indicates that the economy is generally stable with some positive signs, but also faces challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential risks in the financial market. The bond market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, while the stock market is expected to have long - term upward momentum with short - term adjustments [17][20][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing a slight improvement. The growth rate of social financing scale and M1, M2 money supply had changes, and the CPI and PPI were still in the negative range [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Sino - US economic and trade consultations are expected to resume. The US government is relaxing some tariff policies. The trading rules of gold and silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be adjusted. Analysts expect the LPR to remain flat in October with potential for future cuts, and the US will extend the tariff credit arrangement for auto parts imports [2][3]. Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, and the base metal market may oscillate widely. Gold has increased by over 60% this year, and there are different views on its future trend. Silver prices have also risen significantly, with a nearly 70% increase this year. Some domestic and Japanese precious metal prices have reached new highs, and some companies plan to raise prices [5][6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - The National Energy Administration aims to promote the high - quality development of coal washing, and the US Treasury Secretary urges the World Bank to fund various energy sources including coal [11]. Energy and Chemicals - China has achieved multiple breakthroughs in the energy field. The new regulations on the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline networks will be implemented. India's oil imports from Russia have increased, and Egypt will freeze domestic fuel prices [12]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. On October 17, the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan on that day [16]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations are expected to resume. The US government is relaxing tariff policies, and the US president admits that high - tariff strategies are unsustainable. Analysts expect the LPR to remain flat in October. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The government will promote green trade and agricultural production, and the financial situation shows a stable and upward trend [17][18][20]. Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with yields of long - term bonds declining. Bond futures rose, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. The bond market is affected by policy expectations and stock market fluctuations and is in an oscillatory pattern [26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [31]. Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond and stock markets. Generally, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the stock market is expected to have long - term upward momentum with short - term adjustments [32][33]. 4. Stock Market Important News - As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year has exceeded that of 2024, with stock - type funds reaching a 15 - year high in terms of new establishment and issuance scale. The ETF market has seen significant capital inflows, and two capital - market monetary policy tools have effectively boosted market confidence [37][38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views - The softening of the US President's trade stance boosts global risk appetite, and the short - term macro upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US relations. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends, with some suggesting cautious long - positions and others suggesting cautious waiting and watching. [2] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas, the softening of the US President's trade stance boosts the US dollar index and global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans are introduced, increasing policy support. The market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US relations, and the short - term macro upward drive has strengthened. [2] - For assets: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position; bonds are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; for commodities, black metals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are adjusted, with cautious long - positions; energy and chemicals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are strongly volatile at high levels, with cautious long - positions. [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and semiconductor components, the domestic stock market has fallen significantly. However, economic growth acceleration, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and domestic policy support boost risk appetite. The market focuses on policies and Sino - US relations, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell last Friday. With the softening of the US President's trade stance, global risk aversion declined, and gold prices dropped after hitting a record high. In the short term, precious metals are volatile at high levels, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - positions can be held or reduced on rallies, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is recommended. [3] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, with low trading volume. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts and expectations of policy benefits support the market. Fundamentally, demand has changed little, inventory has decreased, and supply is likely to decline. In the short term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound. [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices were weak last Friday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits, iron ore demand is likely to decline. Supply has changed, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices. [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were flat last Friday, and the futures prices were volatile. The decline in steel production has reduced ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are weak, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased. Silicon iron prices are stable, and the market for some raw materials is tight. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to remain range - bound. [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro factors include the easing of trade tensions and the impact of US bank credit issues. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices, but it is temporary, and future supply is expected to increase. Domestic copper inventory is high, and demand is facing challenges. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose and then fell last Friday. The market is affected by bank credit issues. Aluminum inventory has decreased, but demand is weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound. [9] Tin - On the supply side, Indonesian policies and mining approvals affect supply, and the end of maintenance in a large Chinese smelter increases production. On the demand side, demand is weak in traditional and emerging industries. High prices suppress demand, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [10] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The decline in spot market benchmarks and premiums has led to a fall in futures prices. The return of Asia - Pacific procurement is the focus, and Russian supply is a risk point. In the short term, there may be a price rebound, but the long - term outlook is bearish. [11] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are following oil prices and remaining low and volatile. The basis is low, and there is pressure on factory inventory accumulation. Profit has recovered slightly, and supply pressure is increasing. The future trend depends on oil prices and inventory. [11] PX - Affected by falling oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices are falling. Although PTA's high - level operation provides some support, PX is expected to remain weak and volatile. [11] PTA - Downstream demand is weak, and processing fees are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and the basis is decreasing. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. [12] Ethylene Glycol - Inventory has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain low, with limited room for rebound. [12] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber is adjusting with the polyester sector and is expected to remain weak and volatile. The improvement in terminal orders is limited, and the future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] Methanol - Short - term supply has decreased, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, traditional demand is weak, and there are plans to restart production, so prices are expected to be volatile. [13] PP - Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Falling oil prices weaken cost support. The future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] LLDPE - Supply has increased, and inventory has accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, and cost support is weakening. The market is under short - term pressure. [14] Urea - Daily production is stable. Industrial demand is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking. The market may be stagnant and then rise slightly, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. [14] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA reports are delayed, and Sino - US soybean trade concerns persist. Domestic consumption provides some support. Brazilian and Argentine soybean conditions are good. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and Sino - US trade is the key factor. [15] Soybean Meal - Domestic oil mill supply has recovered, but inventory pressure remains. Oil mill profit is in deficit, increasing the willingness to support prices. There is a supply gap risk before the arrival of South American soybeans next year. After the oversold situation, the market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate. [15] Oils - For rapeseed oil, the easing of China - Canada relations reduces risk appetite, and the market is expected to be volatile before trade news is clear. Palm oil supply and demand are stable, and prices are supported. Soybean oil is in the peak season, and the price is stable. [15][16] Corn - Corn from Northeast and North China is on the market, causing a seasonal impact. The current price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the price decline. [16] Pigs - After the festival, the production and inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low. There is support from fat - to - lean price differences and some restocking, and the supply may decrease in late October, stabilizing prices. However, significant price recovery is difficult without a large increase in demand. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline and reached the lowest point of the year. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the decline in Russian exports still exists, but most refineries plan to end maintenance at the end of October. If the operating rate of Russian refineries recovers, the high - sulfur market may face negative factors. Meanwhile, the crude oil import quotas of domestic local refineries are gradually being consumed, and some small and medium - sized refineries may increase fuel oil imports in the future, which needs continuous attention. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the external market has shown little fluctuation recently. Although the number of domestic LU warehouse receipts is gradually decreasing, the opening of the internal - external price difference will continue to attract foreign spot goods for delivery, which will significantly suppress the near - month valuation, and the monthly spread will remain weak in the near future [4]. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2650 - 2800, and LU is valued at 3050 - 3350 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU have entered a low - price range, and the short - term downward space is relatively limited. 2) Inter - period: There is a probability that the LU monthly spread will continue to decline. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU price difference may still shrink slightly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Multiple charts show the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), the maintenance volume of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil over different years [6][10][20]. Demand - Charts present the demand data of fuel oil at home and abroad, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years [23]. Inventory - Charts show the global fuel oil spot inventory, including the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Include the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (such as in Singapore and Fujairah), the European region (such as in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean), and the US region (such as in the US Gulf and New York Harbor) over different years [34][36][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU over different years [46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Include the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [56][57]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Present the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [60][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Show the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [64]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts show the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years [69][71]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Present the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [73]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Show the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Price Difference - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Spot Market**: Include the internal - external price differences of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil, as well as the internal - external price differences between LU and Singapore [82][83][85]. - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Futures Market**: Include the internal - external price differences between FU and Singapore (such as FU main contract, FU continuous contract 1) and between LU and Singapore (such as LU continuous contract, LU continuous contract 1, LU continuous contract 2) [86][87]. - **Changes in the Positions and Trading Volumes of FU and LU**: Show the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, continuous contract 1, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract 1 over different years [90][92][95]. - **Changes in the Warehouse Receipt Quantities of FU and LU**: Present the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of fu and lu over different years [102][103].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】31号 ITGE 照销货 LPG数据日报 20000 3500 24/12 25/08 25/02 25/04 25/06 10-28 12-27 03-02 05-01 01-01 06-30 08-29 民用液化气商品量季节性分析(万吨) PDH开工率零节性分析 (%) =2024年度 -2025年度 == -- 2024年度 =2025年度 == == == == 30 > 20 01-01 03-02 10-28 12-27 03-02 10-28 05-01 06-30 08-29 01-01 05-01 06-30 08-29 12-27 LPG华东基差(元/吨) PG月间价差走势 ===- 2022年度 == 2024年度 2025年度 == PG2511-PG2512 PG2512-PG2601 PG2512-PG2602 ---- PG2511-PG2601 1500 1000 500 -500 -1000 04/06 06/05 00 /05 数据来源:Wind、钢联教程库 务外况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的报何意见或趋议提否符合其特定状况，据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: Amid Sino - US trade frictions, market risk preferences may be suppressed in the short - term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is affected by the strong stock market, and gold and silver maintain their strength due to geopolitical and policy factors [2]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, the shipping index is short - term strong, while steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors, and most chemical products are under downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index** - **Trend**: Sino - US trade frictions lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. The export chain is warming up, and the index rebounds with shrinking volume [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. **Treasury Bonds** - **Trend**: The 10 - year Treasury bond has different values at different interest rate levels. The short - term bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within the range, and the T2512 fluctuation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3 [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Trend**: Gold remains strong before the geopolitical conflict eases and the US policy situation becomes clear. Silver also maintains its strength due to slow overseas EFP conversion progress [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in gold and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Keep a long - buying idea for silver above 11000 yuan [2]. **Shipping Index (EC - European Line)** - **Trend**: The short - term trend is strong and fluctuating [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously go long [2]. **Steel** - **Trend**: Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the steel market is converging [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the month - spread should be short - sold at high prices. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is converging [2]. **Iron Ore** - **Trend**: Supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the market is turning weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the range is between 750 - 800. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Trend**: After the holiday, the coal price in the producing areas is weak, and the downstream replenishment demand is weakening. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the holiday, but further increases are difficult [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1080 - 1200. Go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1550 - 1700. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Trend**: Copper prices fluctuate, alumina cost support is loosening, aluminum and its alloys maintain high - level oscillations, zinc prices have limited support, tin prices are weak, nickel prices oscillate, and stainless steel demand is insufficient [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For copper, pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000. For other metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their trends, such as waiting for buying opportunities for tin [2]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Trend**: Oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and pessimistic IEA reports. Most chemical products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given for each product, such as short - selling at high prices, holding short positions, and conducting arbitrage operations [2]. **Agricultural Products** - **Trend**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar, cotton, and eggs are weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding 3 - 7 reverse spreads for live pigs [2]. **Special and New Energy Commodities** - **Trend**: Glass production and sales are average, rubber is affected by the peak production season, industrial silicon prices are weak, polysilicon prices are rising, and lithium carbonate maintains oscillations [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding long positions for polysilicon [2].

"十四五"以来，河南聚焦科技与产业创新深度融合，围绕重大战略、重点产业完成19户省管企业战略重 组，"一业一企一强"新格局基本形成。截至2024年底，省管企业净资产达1.2万亿元(人民币，下同)，较 2020年底增长104.8%。 河南省政府新闻办15日举行新闻发布会作上述通报称，"十四五"期间，除了通过重组省管企业整合国资 平台，该省还在超硬材料、人工智能、低空经济、生物医药等领域组建了一批专业化子公司，设立绿色 钢铁、中豫格林、中豫科创、低空发展等多只基金，发行科技创新债券143.7亿元。 河南省政府国资委主任吴祖明在发布会上一一列举称，重组中国河南国际合作集团有限公司打造该省对 外开放主平台，组建中豫航空集团有限公司做强郑州—卢森堡"空中丝路"并在东南亚等地复制推广，河 南中豫国际港务集团有限公司运营的中欧班列(中豫号)不断扩容加密，累计开行班列数居全国第二位。 河南整合国资平台不止于此。上个月，两家营收超千亿元的能源企业——中国平煤神马控股集团有限公 司和河南能源集团有限公司战略重组的消息一出，广受业界关注。吴祖明表示，此举意在打造具有国际 竞争力的世界一流能源和新材料企业。 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021- ...

10月15日，省政府新闻办召开河南省高质量完成"十四五"规划系列主题新闻发布会第十一场发布会，全 面介绍河南省"十四五"时期国资国企改革发展情况。 省政府国资委党委副书记、主任吴祖明介绍，"十四五"以来，全省国资国企系统认真贯彻落实习近平总 书记关于国有企业改革发展和党的建设的重要论述、考察河南重要讲话精神，在省委、省政府坚强领导 下，不断推动国资国企功能提档、改革提速、发展提质、监管提效，成为全省经济社会发展的重要力 量。 截至2024年年底，省市两级监管企业资产总额7.3万亿元，净资产2.3万亿元。其中，省管企业资产总额 4.4万亿元，净资产1.2万亿元，较2020年年底分别增长84%、104.8%。2024年省管企业实现营业收入超 7000亿元、利润236亿元，较2020年分别增长33.3%、191.5%。 "一业一企一强" 重塑发展新格局 "十四五"以来，省政府国资委聚焦国有资本"三个集中"，推动企业加快传统产业焕新蝶变，完成19户省 管企业战略重组，"一业一企一强"新格局基本形成。 研发投入突破百亿 创新动能澎湃 全力支撑交通强省建设。推动我省铁路、高铁、城市轨道建成里程分别达到6810公里、226 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with an obvious style shift. The bond market recovered due to the stock market adjustment and loose liquidity. Precious metals prices were volatile, with gold reaching a new high. The shipping index (European line) had an upward trend in the futures market. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also showed different trends and characteristics, affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and international trade relations [2][5][7][11] - The market is affected by multiple factors, including domestic and international policies, economic data, and trade frictions. For example, the Sino - US tariff issue, the Fed's monetary policy, and the political situation in the United States all have an impact on the market. In the short term, the market may experience fluctuations, but in the long term, the overall trend is still affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand [4][8][17] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - share major indexes opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99%. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis spreads of the main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, China imposed counter - measures on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a potential interest - rate cut [3][4] - **Funding**: On October 14, the A - share market trading volume increased. The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound. It is recommended to wait for the fluctuations to converge before entering the market at low levels [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed high, with all contracts rising. Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bonds showed a differentiated trend, with medium - and long - term bonds strengthening and short - term bonds weakening [5] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 910 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the short - term liquidity was loose. The money market rate was low, and the long - term capital rate was slightly higher than the previous day [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market recovery is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities, with the T2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 107.4 and 108.3 [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: China imposed counter - measures on US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Powell hinted at an end to balance - sheet reduction and a possible interest - rate cut. The international precious metals market was volatile, with gold reaching a new high and then falling back [7][8][9] - **Outlook**: The risk of US economic recession has increased, and the Fed's policy may strengthen the downward pressure on the US dollar. Precious metals are expected to have a bull market, but the price may fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a long - position thinking above 11,000 yuan [9][10] - **Funding**: Global economic and political turmoil has led investors to increase their allocation of precious metals through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of October 14, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe basic ports from different shipping companies were provided [11] - **Shipping Index**: As of October 13, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the US - West route index decreased by 1.64% month - on - month. As of October 10, the SCFI composite index increased by 4.12% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of October 14, the global container total capacity increased by 7.41% year - on - year. The eurozone's September composite PMI was 51.2, and the US September manufacturing PMI was 49.1 [11] - **Logic**: The futures market showed an upward trend. Although November and December are traditional peak seasons, macro - factors such as Sino - US tariffs and the cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict are negative factors for the European line [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to many macro - uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the December contract [12] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of October 14, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the average price of spot premium decreased. The spot trading was expected to remain weak [12] - **Macro**: The Sino - US tariff issue may affect copper prices. The weak US employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed [12][17] - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore continued. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased, and it was expected to continue to decline in October. The decline in sulfuric acid prices may affect the smelter's profit and production [14] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper showed some resilience. Although the demand in the fourth quarter may slow down, the power industry may have more orders in the second half of the year [15] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased [16] - **Logic**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The Sino - US tariff issue and the shortage of copper ore supply were the main influencing factors [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan [17] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On October 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory was accumulating [17] - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased. The industry's operating capacity was at a high level, and it was expected to continue to have an oversupply situation in October [18] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19] - **Logic**: The futures price continued to decline. The supply was abundant, the cost support was weakening, and the demand was sluggish [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3,000 yuan [20] - **View**: Oscillation with a downward trend [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the average price of spot premium increased [21] - **Supply**: In September 2025, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. It was expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots would continue to increase slightly in October [21] - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, but the start - up rate decreased due to the holiday [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [22] - **Logic**: The price of Shanghai aluminum futures increased, but the high price suppressed spot purchases. The macro - environment was favorable, and the supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,700 and 21,300 yuan [23] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [23] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [23] - **Supply**: In August, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It was expected that the start - up rate would increase slightly in September [24][25] - **Demand**: The demand in September showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and the high price suppressed procurement [25] - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the social inventory in some areas was close to full [25] - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The cost support was strong, the supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was gradually recovering [26] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 and 20,800 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, consider the arbitrage of going long on AD12 and short on AL12 when the spread is above 500 [26][27] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On October 14, the average price of 0 zinc ingot increased slightly, and the spot was in a weak state with a discount [27] - **Supply**: From January to September, the supply of the zinc industry chain was loose, but the decline in domestic TC and sulfuric acid prices limited the increase in zinc ingot production [28] - **Demand**: The overall demand did not exceed expectations. The start - up rate of primary processing industries decreased due to the holiday, and it was expected to recover gradually next week [29] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price oscillated, and the supply - demand fundamentals were relatively weak. The price was expected to remain oscillating in the short term [30][31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On October 14, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot trading was light [31] - **Supply**: In August, the import of tin ore and tin ingots showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved in the short term, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia decreased [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the start - up rate of solder increased slightly, but the demand in traditional fields was weak. The inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The supply was relatively strong, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by macro - factors and the supply situation in Myanmar [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls [34] - **Recent View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of October 14, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import spot premium increased [34] - **Supply**: In September, the production of refined nickel increased. It was expected to continue to increase slightly [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel was stable or weak, while the demand for alloys was good. The demand for nickel sulfate had short - term support but faced challenges in the medium term [35][36] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory was stable [36] - **Logic**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The macro - environment was uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals were complex. The price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [37] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 120,000 and 126,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [37][38] - **Short - term View**: Range oscillation [38] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of October 14, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased [38] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of chrome iron increased [38] - **Supply**: In September, the production of domestic stainless steel increased, and it was expected to continue to increase in October [39] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased after the holiday, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [39] - **Logic**: The stainless - steel price oscillated downward. The macro - environment was weak, the supply was under pressure, and the demand did not meet expectations [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,400 and 12,800 yuan. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill dynamics [40][41] - **Short - term View**: Weak oscillation [42] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of October 14, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the trading was light [42] - **Supply**: In September, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it continued to increase in the week of October 9. The increase mainly came from new projects and lithium - spodumene processing [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, with an increase in orders from the new - energy and energy - storage sectors. The export volume also increased [43] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory seasonally [43] - **Logic**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state during the peak season. The price was expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main - contract price is expected to oscillate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro - risks [44][45] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation and consolidation [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from a high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [45] - **Supply**: In September - October, the production of molten iron remained high, but decreased slightly during the National Day holiday. The production of five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year [45][46] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased year - on - year but improved seasonally. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased year - on - year and was basically the same month - on - month [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories rising. The inventory was expected to increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [47] - **View**: The steel price weakened, but the decline was less than that of iron ore. The supply - demand of steel improved, but the demand for hot - rolled coil needed to be observed. Pay attention to the support levels of 3,000 and 3,200 yuan for rebar and hot - rolled coil in the January contract [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of October 14, the spot prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased [48] - **Futures**: As of October 14, the iron - ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [48] - **Basis**: The optimal deliverable product was PB powder, and the basis of different iron - ore varieties was calculated [48] - **Demand**: As of October 9, the daily output of molten iron, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased slightly [48] - **Supply**: As of October 13, the global iron - ore shipment decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased. The monthly import volume in September increased [49] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased, the daily port - clearance volume decreased, and steel - mill import inventory decreased [49] - **View**: The iron - ore futures price oscillated downward. The supply - demand fundamentals were complex, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [49][50] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of October 14, the coking - coal futures price oscillated and rebounded. The spot price in Shanxi was stable or decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal increased [51][54] - **Supply**: As of October 8, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed [51][52] - **Demand**: As of October 8, the daily output of coke decreased slightly, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [53] - **Inventory**: The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [53] - **View**: The coking - coal