Core Viewpoint - Recent policies are focused on expanding domestic demand to achieve a "good start" for 2026, with six major focal points identified [1][2] Group 1: Major Policies - The UK Prime Minister's visit to China resulted in several positive outcomes, including visa exemptions and reduced import tariffs on whiskey [2][11][12] - Multiple measures to support service consumption were introduced, including a plan to issue subsidies for elderly care services and tax incentives for community service industries [2][21][26] - The Ministry of Finance announced a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises [2][27] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised regulations to attract "patient capital" by expanding the types of strategic investors and setting minimum shareholding requirements [2][19] - The local governments are entering the two sessions period, with an average GDP target of 5% across 22 regions, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [2][28] Group 2: Local Policies - Local two sessions are concluding, with 22 regions announcing their GDP targets, showing an average target of 5%, down 0.3 percentage points from last year [2][28] - Economic provinces have set varied GDP targets, with the highest being 5.5% for Hubei and the lowest being 4.5% for Guangdong [2][29] Group 3: Industry Policies - Various regions are optimizing housing fund and housing ticket management to stimulate housing demand, with initiatives like electronic housing tickets and increased loan limits [2][30][31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to promote energy-saving and carbon reduction in key industries by 2027 [2][30]

这场贵金属市场"海啸"，市场各方普遍认为，因美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一届美联储主席 而起。但随后金银"脱缰"重挫，则在于杠杆资金连续挤压下的踩踏效应。 "有无数人一夜归零甚至穿仓。"市场人士告诉上海证券报记者，在急涨行情下，国际期货市场中累积了 相当规模的杠杆头寸。当价格暴跌时，投资者被强制平仓，被动抛售，进而引发"滚雪球"般快速下行。 伊朗紧张局势有所缓解！特朗普希望与伊朗"能够达成协议"，伊朗也重磅表态 当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望"能够达成协议"。 来源：新浪证券 【头条要闻】 资金"踩踏式"出逃！黄金白银遭遇史诗级暴跌，后市怎么走？ 恐慌性抛售，令国际金银价格上演了崩盘走势。1月31日凌晨（北京时间），伦敦现货黄金一度下跌超 12%，为40余年来最大单日跌幅；伦敦现货白银则创下历史最大日内跌幅纪录，一度跌超36%。截至收 盘，伦敦金跌9.25%，报4880.034美元/盎司；伦敦银跌26.42%，报85.259美元/盎司。COMEX黄金、白 银期货价格同步下挫。 "周末加班加点，下周一（2月2日）开盘实时估值将不再提供。"某三方机构人士向智通财经 ...

特此公告。 富国基金管理有限公司 | HERRUN) | 胰菌膏苯 | | --- | --- | | N=7H | 1.50% | | 7 HONE 30 H | 0.75% | | 50日≤N<180日 | 0.50% | | No=180 H | 0 | | HERRANA | 相同型率 | | --- | --- | | N<7H | 1:50% | | 7 LINK 30 H | 0.75% | | 30 日本N~90日 | 0.50% | | N290 H | 000 | | 中国会副M(合中期费) | 品脂膏素 (通过直销中心申购的养老会等) | 申閲妙景 (其德投资者) | | --- | --- | --- | | M<300万元 | 0.15% | 1.90 | | M2500 7991: | 链累1000元 | | | 基金公家 | 你都只和提合到正要投资基金 | | --- | --- | | 基金属序 | 家国内流程合 | | 基金制代码。 | 025717 | | 最安端下方式 | 知约最开放式 | | 被波片同生数日 | 2025年11月5日 | | 去会管理人公募 | 第三基金 ...

| | | 【2月1日晚间重要公告摘要】 | | --- | --- | --- | | 类型 | 公司 | 主要内容 | | | 吉华集团 | 控股股东筹划控制权变更 2日起停牌 | | 聚焦 | | 赛力斯等多家车企披露1月产销数据 | | | 福石控股 | 实控人、董事长兼总经理被留置 | | | 指南针 海航控股 | 2025年净利润同比增加118.74% 拟10派0.8元 2025年预盈18亿元至22亿元 同比扭亏 | | | | 11 11 - | | | 南方航空 | 2025年预盈8亿至10亿元 同比扭亏 | | | 奥比中光 | 2025年预盈1.23亿元 同比扭亏 | | | 宏微科技 | 2025年预盈1400万元至2100万元 同比扭亏 | | 业绩精选 | 赛诺医疗 | 2025年净利润同比预增2767%至3233% | | | 博杰股份 | 预计2025年净利润同比增长484.16%至618.97% | | | 太极集团 | 2025年净利润同比预增313% | | | 中际旭创 | 预计2025年净利润同比增长89.50%至128.17% | | | 中金公司 | 2025年净利 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 01 日 固 定 收 益 央行新工具意义何在 地方债发行放量期限压缩 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260201 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 5805 亿元，本周一有 2000 亿元 MLF 到期，周三财政部开展 1500 亿元 1M 国库现金定存操作，中标利率 连续 3 月维持在 1.73%。本周初 OMO 净投放规模有限，但 MLF 到期叠 加缴准以及政府债大量缴款，使得资金边际收紧，但此后外生扰动减弱， 临近月末央行投放规模也逐步增大，DR001 回落至 1.33%附近。 益 定 期 报 告 质押式回购成交量周一后持续回落；质押式回购整体规模周四前震荡 回升，周五明显回落。大型银行净融出在周一下行后维持震荡，中小型银 行净融出周四前持续上行，周五回落但仍高于上周；银行整体净融出维持 震荡，中枢较上周略有回落。非银刚性融出持续上升，其中货基、其他产 品、理财融出延续上升。非银刚性融入震荡上行，其中其他产品升幅较大。 资金缺口指数在周一上行后持续回落，但周五再度走高，季调后指数升至- 4098，略高于上周五的-4961，而季调前指数周五为- ...

宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the strategy differentiation of major financial institutions will reshape the bond market landscape. The trading attributes of banks will be enhanced, and the pressure to exchange floating profits will be reduced. If the regulatory constraints on interest - rate sensitivity indicators are relaxed, it may provide long - term bond allocation space for banks. Securities firms' proprietary trading will continue the aggressive strategy of "bond foundation, equity enhancement" with regulatory support. Wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" era, with product closure and defensive allocation becoming the mainstream. Public funds are expected to repair the liability side through the new fee regulations, the duration strategy may be reopened, and the use of hedging tools will increase. Insurance institutions will focus on long - term allocation, increasing their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - dividend assets. The overall trading attributes of the market will be enhanced, and the allocation strategies will gradually diversify [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Overall, it shows the characteristics of "configuration adjustment and trading enhancement". In 2026, if China follows the Basel regulatory new rules, large banks are expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of government bond allocation space, and the ability to undertake long - term bonds will be marginally improved. The trading attributes of state - owned large banks are gradually strengthening, and they will continue to maintain high trading activity in 2026. If the cost - performance of inter - bank certificates of deposit rises in the future, the bond - allocation strength of rural commercial banks may moderately recover [15]. - Constrained by the deepening of the asset - liability term mismatch, the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds is limited. However, if China implements the adjusted international regulatory standards, it is estimated that about 1 trillion yuan of bond - allocation capacity will be added for large banks. In 2025, the AC account proportion of various banks decreased, and the OCI account proportion increased. In 2026, although the pressure on banks to make up for the performance gap by realizing floating profits will weaken, there are still incentives to realize floating profits [16][21]. - State - owned large banks' trading volume of 7 - 10Y treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds in 2025 increased, and the proportion of trading volume also increased compared with the previous two years, showing an active trading strategy. It is expected that this high trading activity will continue in 2026 [29]. - Since the beginning of 2025, affected by the new capital regulations and the decline in the cost - performance of certificates of deposit, the bond - allocation behavior of rural commercial banks in the secondary market has significantly shrunk. If the cost - performance of certificates of deposit recovers and the capital occupation pressure eases in 2026, the bond - allocation strength may moderately recover [32][33]. 3.2 Wealth Management - In 2026, wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" operation mechanism. In terms of products, "fixed - income +", closed - end and minimum holding - period products will be used to deal with net - value fluctuations; in terms of operation, the management requirements for duration, leverage and liquidity will continue to increase, and the asset allocation will focus on stability and term matching [40]. - In 2026, in the context of low - interest rates and the full - completion of valuation rectification, the scale and number of "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow. The proportion of "fixed - income +" products in fixed - income wealth management is expected to rise steadily [41][42]. - After the full - completion of valuation rectification, the net - value stability constraint of wealth management products has been significantly enhanced. The closed - end and quasi - closed - end operation characteristics of new products are expected to be further strengthened in 2026 [44]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will pay more attention to the liquidity safety cushion. The proportion of high - liquidity assets in wealth management asset allocation is likely to remain relatively high [50]. - In 2026, wealth management drawdown is expected to be controllable and will change around interest - rate fluctuations. Wealth management institutions may deepen the application of multi - asset allocation strategies to reduce the impact of bond - market fluctuations on net value [52]. - In 2026, the allocation value of amortized - cost bond funds will be further highlighted. The re - investment demand of the expired funds of amortized - cost bond funds is expected to support the short - end credit - bond market [58]. 3.3 Public Funds - In 2026, with the implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds, the bond - market sentiment is expected to be moderately repaired, and the stability improvement of the liability side may create conditions for reopening the duration strategy. The development of innovative tools such as stock - bond constant ETFs is expected to introduce incremental funds, and the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase. The supervision of customized funds and dividend mechanisms will continue to be optimized [65]. - In 2025, the leverage ratio of bond funds decreased, and the duration fluctuated greatly. In 2026, the liability - side and asset - side durations of public funds are expected to increase [66]. - The implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds in 2026 is expected to promote the moderate repair of the bond market and the internal optimization of the bond - fund pattern [71]. - In 2026, the pure - bond fund market may face product - pattern adjustment. The smooth development of stock - bond constant ETFs may bring incremental funds to the equity and interest - rate bond markets and weaken the traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect in the short term [76]. - In 2026, the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase to manage risk exposure in the context of low - interest rates and high volatility in the bond market [79]. - In 2026, there is still room for optimization of customized funds and dividend mechanisms in the public - fund industry. The regulatory authorities may put forward rectification requirements for customized funds with a high institutional - holding ratio and optimize the dividend mechanism [82][84]. 3.4 Insurance - In 2026, the investment strategy of insurance institutions is expected to shift from "trading" to "allocation - based". The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds such as treasury bonds has declined, and the asset - allocation structure will be further optimized [87]. - In 2025, affected by the regulatory reduction of the liability - side pricing ceiling, new - policy attractiveness weakened, and premium growth slowed down. Insurance funds preferred a Carry - based strategy, with a decline in the turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and a stable or rising allocation weight [88]. - As of Q3 2025, bonds still accounted for more than 50% of insurance - fund asset allocation, but the growth rate of equity investment was relatively fast. In 2026, if the new fee regulations weaken the cost - performance of bond funds, some insurance funds may shift to equity assets, but it will not significantly affect their bond - market allocation [94]. - In 2026, under the dual - system drive of the new asset - liability regulations and new accounting standards, insurance institutions will significantly increase their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - grade general credit bonds and reduce the allocation of bank Tier 2 capital bonds. The proportion of participating insurance is expected to continue to increase, and the equity - asset allocation will focus on high - dividend and low - valuation stocks [100][101]. 3.5 Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading - In 2026, the bond - allocation of securities firms' proprietary trading will continue to focus on interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and the equity - allocation is expected to achieve "both quantity and quality improvement" under regulatory encouragement, with a preference for standardized products such as broad - based index constituent stocks and liquid ETFs [103]. - From March 2021 to November 2025, the bond - holding scale of securities firms' proprietary trading increased, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds rose. In 2026, the bond - holding scale is expected to continue to grow, and the credit - bond allocation will continue to concentrate on high - grade bonds [104][105]. - In 2025, the floating - profit scale of securities firms' proprietary trading turned from negative to positive, and they showed advantages in stop - profit operation and holding - cost control [109]. - Regulatory support for securities firms' proprietary trading to increase equity - asset allocation has increased. In 2026, securities firms may further increase their equity - asset allocation, with a possible preference for standardized products [114].

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has continued to improve, but the momentum for further decline in interest rates is insufficient. The planned issuance of local government bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advancing, and the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand have not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. Additionally, although the equity market has cooled down under regulatory policy adjustments, market expectations remain optimistic, which may continue to suppress the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information to make a directional choice [105]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts fell by 0.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11% and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes of the TF and T main contracts increased, while those of the TS and TL main contracts decreased. The open interests of the TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while that of the T main contract increased [13][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a full - year reduction of 963.6 billion yuan. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a full - year reduction of 357.5 billion yuan. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a full - year reduction of 676.8 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and in December, the profit increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The National Tax Work Conference proposed to strengthen the standardization of tax incentives. The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill, and the US federal government faced a partial shutdown crisis [35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields widened, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - period spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [43][49][53]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures' main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - week Shibor rates rose, while the overnight and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.59%. The yields of Treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 1.7 - year yield falling by 0.3 - 1.8bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing to 1.81% and 2.26% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened [70][77]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.7615 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.181 trillion yuan maturing, and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, achieving a net injection of 530.5 billion yuan [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.026865 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 776.835 billion yuan, and a net financing of 250.029 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9678, with a cumulative appreciation of 251 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose, and the VIX index declined. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][96][101]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In Q4 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth rate reached 5.0%. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. In December, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the full - year profit increased, reversing the three - year downward trend. China's economic growth showed a pattern of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand" and "strong supply and weak demand" [104]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the vote, and the federal government faced a shutdown crisis. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, indicating that inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [104].

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2026-01-30 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《1 月收官，政府债供给压力如何？》 - 2026.01.27 固收专题 货币"新工具"会是什么样？ ⚫ 中国央行："向非银提供流动性"和"收窄利率走廊" 显然，当前投资者在讨论"中国版 ONRRP"时，已经将向"非银提 供流动性"和"提高利率走廊下限"两个政策取向混为一谈。但在以 往的央行公开政策论述中，这两者并非关联在一起的。第一，央行在 2025 年四季度和今年初提出"向非银机构提供流动性"问题，但前提 是在"在特定情景下"，而非常规操作。第二，央行在 2024 年之后多 次提到"利率走廊收窄"，至今未明确落地相关工具。央行诉求收窄 利率走廊由来已久，若推出新政策工具来框定资金利率的运行下限， 并不令人意外；但这种政策方向却与非银的流动性管理无关，央行对 非银的流动性管理被设定在流动性救助 ...