固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 央行的"为"与"不为" 1、股市压制，债市先弱后强，曲线小幅走陡 本周（6/23-6/27），跨季与股债"跷跷板"成为主导债市行情的主要逻辑， 上半周受股市行情走强影响，对债市形成压制，震荡走弱，但央行加码流 动性投放呵护跨季资金面，并且保险补配，对债市形成一定支撑。进入下 半周，债市进入修复行情，股债联动效应的影响边际减弱，叠加股市表现 有所回落，期间，央行继续加码呵护，周五公布的工企利润数据显示修复 进程仍存在不确定性，上述因素均对债市形成一定利好。 2、跨季整体无虞，银行负债端压力可控 本周资金面整体平稳，临近跨季波动有所增加，7 天资金利率大幅上行， 上半周政府债发行规模较大。但央行呵护意图较为明显，全周逆回购投放 超 2 万亿元，存单发行利率低波震荡、小幅上行，大行融出未有明显回落， 整体波动于 4 万亿元上下的区间，指向跨季资金整体无虞，银行负债端压 力相对可控。 3、央行货币政策的"为"与"不为" 6 月以来，大行买入短端国债规模同环比均有增长，历史上大行买入短端 国债规模较大时期主要集中于 2024 年 8-12 月，为公开市场国债买入的 ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) signaled important adjustments in monetary policy and exchange rate management for the second half of the year, reflecting a more flexible approach in response to complex economic conditions [1][4] - The second quarter meeting emphasized maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy while enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual function of monetary policy tools [5][6] Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for the second quarter, with a target of around 4.7% for the second half to meet the annual growth goal, indicating manageable pressure under current policy measures [5] - Market analysts expect further policy adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, to support liquidity and economic stability [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting highlighted the need to implement existing financial policies effectively to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing housing stock and land [9][10] - Data from January to May showed a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area and sales revenue by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, although some first- and second-tier cities experienced growth [9] Domestic Circulation Strategy - The PBOC emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic focus, coordinating supply and demand, and enhancing macro policy coordination to stimulate economic recovery [11] - Recent policies included lowering interest rates on housing provident fund loans and optimizing capital market support tools, with a total of 800 billion yuan allocated for securities and stock repurchase financing [11] Exchange Rate Management - The second quarter meeting shifted its focus from strict measures to enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [12] - Historical data suggests the yuan may be entering a new appreciation cycle, which could help stabilize the global monetary system and support economic growth [12]

远东研究·债市研究 2025 年 6 月 27 日 债市"科技板"发行首月运行情况显示，市场兴起迅猛。一是 发行市场规模激增，Wind 资讯统计显示，债市"科技板"上市首月 发行合计 3897.77 亿元，同比增长 308.63%。二是发行主体多样性 增强，金融机构发行科创债券成为重要亮点，股权投资机构、科技 型企业踊跃发行科创债券。三是从不同角度助力科技创新，通过支 持科技企业、银行和证券机构、股权投资机构等发行主体，发挥科 创债券直接、间接支持科技创新的作用。四是融资成本相对较低， 样本券发行平均利率为 1.95%，低于同期信用债（不含科创债） 2.25%的水平，与科创债发行主体整体上信用等级较高有关。五是 评级服务积极作为。评级公司纷纷推进科技型企业、股权投资企业 评级方法模型，但针对不少科创债主体评级，普遍采用发行人所属 行业（例如商业银行、金融投资公司、电子行业）评级模型。 展望未来，债券市场"科技板"发展前景广阔，可从政策、市 场等角度展望其前景。首先，债券市场制度管理日臻完善，需注重 市场准入门槛设置合理性、维护信息披露质效、建立良好的市场反 馈和调整机制等方面。其次，市场主体结构仍有多样化空间 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing an optimistic wave driven by policy expectations, particularly regarding the unclear "trade understanding" between the US and China and strong bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The recent statement by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, confirming a formal agreement including rare earth transportation, is seen as a positive signal for easing trade tensions, although the specifics of the agreement remain highly opaque [2] - The upcoming deadline of July 9 for the US to implement reciprocal tariffs on other trade partners adds a layer of risk, particularly for countries like India, Japan, and the EU that have not yet reached agreements [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are a significant pillar supporting current market sentiment, with recent economic data indicating a slowdown, thereby increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [3] - Market speculation around the Fed's potential actions has led to the emergence of the "Fed Put" concept, suggesting that the market believes the Fed will intervene during significant economic slowdowns [3] - Political pressure from the White House is casting a shadow over the Fed's independence, adding uncertainty to future policy decisions, despite assurances from Fed officials that such pressure does not affect their communication [3] Group 3 - Global asset prices have reacted significantly to these macro narratives, with stock markets generally rising, US markets reaching new highs, and a weakening dollar aligning with rate cut expectations [5] - Oil prices have increased, reflecting market optimism regarding economic prospects, while US Treasury yields have declined, particularly at the short end, indicating pricing in of potential Fed rate cuts [5] Group 4 - Japan's economic data presents a mixed picture, with core CPI remaining above the Bank of Japan's target despite a decline, indicating accumulating inflationary pressures, while weak retail sales suggest a need for domestic demand stimulation [6] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges in balancing inflation pressures with economic momentum, with market expectations leaning towards normalization of policy, though the timing remains uncertain [6] Group 5 - The sustainability of the current market optimism largely depends on the actual progress of trade negotiations, the outcome of the July 9 deadline, and key economic data releases from major economies like the US and Japan [7] - The market is currently in a state of exuberance amidst uncertainty, highlighting the need for cautious trading strategies in response to potential unexpected developments [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

点击按钮▲ 预约直播 2025年，由蓝狮子与吴晓波频道联合打造的"百万粉丝博主年度书单"系列直播持 续聚焦各领域具有影响力的博主。我们邀请他们走进直播间，畅谈个人见解、推 荐精选书单，与观众共享阅读的乐趣与智慧启迪。 央行MLF操作连续4个月净投放 6月25日，央行开展3000亿MLF操作。本月有1820亿MLF到期，这意味着6月央行MLF净投放达到1180亿，为连续第四个月加量续作。自3月以 来，央行已连续4个月通过MLF实现净投放，叠加买断式逆回购操作，6月中期流动性净投放总额达3180亿元，持续为市场注入流动性。 从当前资金面来看，临近半年末，市场流动性整体表现平稳。 6月以来，DR007（银行间市场存款类机构7天期回购加权平均利率）走势平稳， 反映出市场资金供需相对均衡。中信证券首席经济学家明明测算，7月流动性缺口或达10000亿元，财政支出与政府债券发行缴款对资金面的压 力显著增加。（第一财经） ｜点评｜ 央行近几个月持续保持净投放，并打破常规提前向市场预告投放力度，充分展现了央行稳定市场预期的政策取向。去年 6月，银行业 开始逐步取消手工补息，部分银行存款流失，流动性承压，发行了大量1年期同业存单 ...

自新冠疫情以来，面对飙升的通胀，全球主要央行纷纷加息，现在，它们都已经开始降息，但日本央行 一直是个"异类"。 尽管日本的整体和核心通胀率自2022年4月以来一直高于其2%的目标，且整体通胀率在今年1月达到了 4%的两年高点，但日本央行却始终按兵不动，所谓的核心通胀自2022年10月以来也一直高于目标。 自2024年3月放弃负利率政策以来的14个月里，日本央行仅加息了60个基点。在最近的6月政策会议上， 它将政策利率维持在0.5%，并表示"基础CPI通胀可能保持疲软，主要原因是经济减速。" 美联储于2022年3月进行了自2018年以来的首次加息，同年除日本央行外的所有主要央行都提高了利 率。 在日本，通胀的主要驱动力是食品价格，特别是大米价格。该国的大米价格在2024年下半年急剧上涨， 并在2025年上半年进一步加速，主要原因是2023年和2024年的收成不佳。 今年5月，大米价格飙升了101.7%，这标志着半个多世纪以来的最大涨幅。 摩根大通资产管理的全球市场策略师Marcella Chow指出，大米约占日本核心通胀的一半，未来的通胀 趋势在很大程度上依赖于食品价格，尤其是大米。 暂时性的大米价格飙升？ 但 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of financial support for technological innovation as a key strategy for implementing the innovation-driven development strategy and serving the real economy [1][2] - The National Development Bank has focused on technology finance, providing financial services tailored to the needs of emerging industries and traditional industry upgrades, while actively participating in innovative financial tools in the bond market [1][2] - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market represents a significant step in financial tool innovation, with the National Development Bank successfully issuing technology innovation bonds to support various sectors including artificial intelligence and renewable energy [2][3] Group 2 - The National Development Bank's Anhui branch has issued a total of 646 billion yuan in technology loans, contributing to the establishment of Anhui as a hub for technological innovation and emerging industries [5][6] - The Anhui branch has collaborated with local authorities to support major technology projects, providing 192 billion yuan in credit and facilitating 354 billion yuan in syndicated financing [5][6] - The bank's support for the new energy vehicle industry includes 2.7 billion yuan in loans to Chery Group, aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the sector and promoting domestic production of key components [6][7] Group 3 - The collaboration between leading technology companies and policy banks is crucial for reducing financing costs and optimizing capital structures, thereby enhancing long-term competitiveness [7][10] - The financial support provided by the National Development Bank has enabled companies like iFlytek to undertake significant projects in artificial intelligence, including the establishment of a research base and the development of advanced models [8][9] - The ongoing efforts to address mismatches in risk and term in the banking sector are essential for effectively supporting the innovation and development of technology-driven enterprises [9][10]

临近6月底，资金面再度转紧。6月24日，上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜上行0.3个基点报1.37%，7天Shibor上行13.2个基点报1.629%。 6月25日，Shibor短端品种继续上行。隔夜品种上行0.1BP报1.371%；7天期上行4.2BP报1.671%。 A股市场早盘震荡走高，创业板指跳空大涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.28%，深成指涨0.64%，创业板指涨1.34%。 【导读】雷军官宣，AI眼镜突然"爆"了！蔡文胜出手，中国金融租赁暴涨超600% 中国基金报记者安曼 今天，央行出手，大手笔呵护流动性！ 6月25日，央行官网信息显示，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展3653亿元逆回购操作，中标利率为1.4%。因今日公开市场有1563亿元逆回购到期，净投放 为2090亿元。 雷军官宣 AI眼镜突然"爆"了 6月25日，小米官方微博宣布，将于6月26日晚7点发布"面向下一代的个人智能设备"，即小米AI眼镜。 随后，雷军在自己的微博上为小米AI眼镜"打call"。据他透露，小米AI眼镜支持第一人称视角拍摄，健身、骑行、攀岩、做饭、带娃等场景都可以同步拍 摄、同步记录。 沪深两市半日成交额为9272亿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-25 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...