1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the expansion of QDII fund scale and the increase in the number of Southbound Connect investors, the demand and allocation ratio of overseas bond assets by Chinese - funded institutions will rise, and Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - There is a 'long - holiday market' pattern in the bond market this year. Given the large - scale adjustment of yields and a favorable slope, the market during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday may be positive [22]. - Favorable cyclical factors of emerging from low inflation and structural institutional designs such as reducing the savings rate, A - share volatility, attracting long - term funds into the market, and increasing the dividend payout ratio will improve the long - term return of A - shares relative to bonds [23]. - The US bond market is large - scale and mature. However, risks in US municipal bonds should be noted due to the possibility of local government bankruptcy [23]. - The cost - performance of chasing pan - technology stocks in the stock market is decreasing. It is recommended to shift to mid - cap stocks and deploy traditional sectors with low valuations and policy expectations and non - banking sectors. Convertible bonds still have room for performance [23]. - The yield spread has reached a long - cycle bottom. With the end of debt - resolution policies, risks may be re - priced [24]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% of the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month's 50.1% and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. New RMB loans in financial institutions reached 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [2]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [2]. - The PBC's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the stability of the capital market. The A - share market has shown a positive trend this year [3]. - China's water conservancy infrastructure construction has made new progress. The investment in water conservancy construction is expected to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan during the '14th Five - Year Plan' period, 1.6 times that of the '13th Five - Year Plan' [3]. - The US has introduced export control rules, and China firmly opposes this and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose. Gold prices hit a record high. London base metals mostly increased. The eight - department plan for the non - ferrous metal industry will support the demand for base metals in the long term [5]. - Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [5]. - As of September 26th, the inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed, with tin and zinc inventories decreasing, nickel and aluminum inventories changing, and copper and lead inventories hitting new lows [5]. - As of September 29th, the position of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.60% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center launched the 'Iron Ore Port Spot Price Index' to challenge the international pricing system [7]. - After the Trump administration's policies, some US coal mining companies' stock prices rose [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC + may increase oil production again in November, and a meeting will be held on October 5th to discuss the increase [9]. - TotalEnergies' CEO said that if the EU bans Russian LNG imports, it can be shipped to Turkey or India. The company expects gas demand to grow by 6% - 7% in the next few years [9]. - Crude oil from the Iraqi Kurdistan region is flowing into Turkey's Ceyhan Port at a rate of 150,000 - 160,000 barrels per day [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Chinese customers have reduced purchases of US soybeans, and South American soybeans are replacing US soybeans in the Chinese market [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture released data on the export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 29th, the central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 48.1 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [13]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [13]. - In August, local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan were issued. From January to August, the total issuance was 7.6838 trillion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.7% [14]. - Shanghai issued a document to promote the high - quality development of free - trade offshore bonds [15]. - The US and Japan have introduced export control measures, and China firmly opposes these and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [15]. - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are promoting holiday - themed financial products, but investors need to be aware of risks [15]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [16]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's banking industry's external financial assets, liabilities, and net assets were 1.7721 trillion US dollars, 1.5377 trillion US dollars, and 234.4 billion US dollars respectively [16]. - Some bond - related events include defaults, asset seizures, mergers, and judicial auctions [16]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed, adjusted, or revoked [17]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long - end bonds. The 30 - year treasury bond yield rose by more than 2bp, and the corresponding futures contract fell by 0.47% [18]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, and some fell [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.87%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.10% [18]. - On September 29th, most money market interest rates rose, and the performance of inter - bank repurchase rates varied [19]. - European and US bond yields generally fell [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 143 points, and the central parity rate was raised by 63 points. The US dollar index fell by 0.26%, and most non - US currencies rose [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - The bond market may have a positive trend during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday [22]. - Long - term A - share returns relative to bonds may improve [23]. - The US bond market has its characteristics, and risks in US municipal bonds should be noted [23]. - Stock and convertible bond investment strategies are recommended [23]. - The bond market is at a crossroads, and the yield spread may face re - pricing [24]. 3.4 Stock Market Highlights - A - shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. The trading volume was 2.18 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.89%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of 16.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Over 60% of private equity institutions plan to hold heavy positions during the holiday, and most are optimistic about the post - holiday A - share market, with a preference for technology - related sectors [27]. - The capital market is cracking down on illegal activities such as financial fraud [28]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [28].

随着港元债务证券发行成本下降，今年上半年港元债务证券总发行金额按年增加11.5%，达至28287亿 港元。(完) 2025年上半年香港多项经济及金融数据表现理想 中新社香港9月29日电 香港金融管理局29日发表的《货币与金融稳定情况半年度报告》显示，2025年上 半年香港多项经济及金融数据表现理想。 报告指出，受惠于货物出口表现强韧及本地需求改善，香港经济今年上半年稳健增长，但未来关税因素 或对出口增长构成压力。然而，中国内地推出经济刺激措施等，应有助增强营商信心。住宅物业市场活 动在宽松的金融状况下有所改善，楼价进一步呈现企稳迹象。 今年上半年，香港零售银行的税前经营溢利按年增长13.4%，主要由来自外汇和衍生工具业务的收入以 及收费和佣金收入的增加带动。银行业维持高流动性及充裕资本。 与环球股市相若，港股于4月初急跌后回升。2月底至8月底，恒生指数上升9.3%。今年上半年，港股首 次公开招股融资总额达1071亿港元，是去年同期的八倍。 今年上半年，港元外汇及货币市场交易继续畅顺有序。由于资本市场活动畅旺，港元在4月后持续走 强。银行信贷总额重返正增长，存款总额持续上升。今年前七个月，认可机构存款总额增加7 ...

赵诣指出，第三季度例会表述和第二季度例会表述整体变化不大，国内经济层面强调稳中有进，并认可 高质量发展新成效。 货币政策层面，第三季度例会指出，要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。第二季度相应部分表述为，要实 施好适度宽松的货币政策。 此外，将"保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"修正为"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"。赵 诣指出，这体现了对政策落地生效进度的关注。 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度（总第110次）例会于日前召开。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。 相较第二季度例会内容，最新例会新增"抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应"。中信证券固 定收益分析师赵诣最新解读，这更多体现了对现有存量工具使用的关注，后续央行或更多关注存量工具 的使用情况。 "充分释放政策效应" 维护金融市场稳定发展 第三季度例会指出，要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业， 增强银行资本实力，共同维护金融市场的 ...

每经AI快讯，指南针（SZ 300803，收盘价：166.81元）9月29日晚间发布公告称，公司第十四届第八次 董事会会议于2025年9月29日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于补选公司第十四届董事会独立董事的 议案》等文件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——农夫大战怡宝，抢到更多蛋糕的却是宗馥莉！农夫绿瓶上市后，怡宝上 演"滑铁卢"：市占率大跌近5个百分点 （记者 王晓波） 2024年1至12月份，指南针的营业收入构成为：互联网金融服务占比79.22%，证券业占比20.76%，其他 业务占比0.02%。 截至发稿，指南针市值为1014亿元。 ...

而在肯尼亚，矿主奥马里向深圳采购一台7000美元的锂矿设备，需先将280万肯尼亚先令兑换为美 元（汇兑损失1.2%），再经纽约梅隆银行代理转账（耗时3天，手续费45美元）。最终因汇率波动，实 际多支付200多美元。 这两笔支付的强烈反差，揭示了全球金融治理的"百年变局"：金融强国的标准，已从"谁掌握主权 货币"转向"谁能提供更安全、低成本、普惠的跨境支付方案"。 2025年9月27日清晨，两笔跨越半球的支付同时发生： 在杭州，来自泰国的留学生阿珍用数字人民币App支付7元购买珍珠奶茶。后台依托"多边央行数字 货币桥"，31.28泰铢直接兑换为人民币，全程耗时4.2秒、手续费为0，未经过SWIFT（国际资金清算系 统）和美元中转。 这场"去美元化"暖流中，争议不断：美国彼得森研究所称"人民币缺乏完全可兑换性与深度离岸市 场"；而巴西央行指出，人民币已助其年省15亿美元汇兑成本。 中国能否将这股"暖流"转化为未来的主流？关键在于用好"五把钥匙"；而每把钥匙的背后，都有数 据支撑、现实可行的破局路径。 钥匙一：贸易场景"双向奔赴"——把每笔订单变成人民币需求 核心逻辑：不追求全球替代，优先实现区域主导，通过"便利化 ...

Group 1 - HSBC predicts that by 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 4500 points, the CSI 300 Index will reach 5400 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index will reach 16000 points, representing an increase of 17-20% [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that over 90% of roadshow clients expressed willingness to increase exposure to Chinese assets, marking the highest interest since early 2021 [1] - Fidelity International notes a significant increase in global investors' interest in Chinese assets, with hedge funds showing the highest activity in China's stock market in recent years [2] Group 2 - Barclays states that gold prices do not appear overvalued, with gold ETF holdings at their highest since 2022, and prices have surged over 40% this year [2] - Nomura expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its cash rate, with a shift towards a less dovish communication stance [3] - Nomura also indicates that volatility in the USD/JPY exchange rate may increase due to upcoming data and events [4] Group 3 - CICC suggests that the credit cycle in both China and the US may be approaching turning points, impacting market directions [9] - Guotai Junan emphasizes the importance of the fourth quarter for cyclical industries and high-growth sectors, with a historical tendency for cyclical industries to perform well [11] - Huatai Securities predicts that PPI year-on-year and industrial profits are likely to continue their recovery trend [14]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - Last week, the PBOC's net injection in the open market was 640.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The liquidity situation shifted from loose to tight, with overnight funding rates rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day funding rates increasing significantly from 1.52% to 1.80% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 516.6 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 192.7 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - Despite the approaching quarter-end, the current pace of institutions in crossing the quarter is relatively fast, and the limited scale of government bond payments and reverse repos maturing suggests that liquidity fluctuations will likely be limited [2] - Analysts expect that the funding environment will likely return to a loose state after the "Double Festival" holiday, supported by high fiscal spending levels typically seen at quarter-end [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee recently shifted its focus from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "refining the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy," emphasizing the execution of monetary policy measures [3] - The new policy direction includes support for small and micro enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade, while maintaining support for technology innovation and consumption [3] - Although there was no mention of interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, the monetary policy stance remains "moderately loose," with expectations for potential fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter [3] Group 4 - Analysts predict that the PBOC will enhance liquidity in the interbank market through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or increasing the volume of monetary policy tools [4] - Following the capital increase of four major state-owned banks, other types of banks are also expected to focus on capital replenishment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may break through its downward space in the fourth quarter. After experiencing multiple "stress tests" in the third quarter, the bond market has shown strong resilience. With the improvement of the bond market's adaptability to the strengthening of the equity market and the decline of the excessive trading of long - term bonds, a more rational pricing logic may dominate the market again, and the stable allocation demand will become the "ballast stone" for the interest rate to decline. The interest rate is expected to be in a "moderate" downward state [8][46]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Can the Bond Market Break Through the Sideways Trend in the Fourth Quarter? 3.1.1 The Bond Market Fluctuated Widely in September, with Bulls and Bears in a Fierce Battle and a Wavy Uptrend - The valuation yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has basically completed the anchoring to the "new bond". The spread between the new bond (250016) and the old bond (250011) is basically stable at 5 - 8BP, and the yield - to - maturity compensation due to value - added tax is about 2.8% - 4.5% [1][11]. - The capital interest rate fluctuated significantly due to the cross - quarter effect, and the central level increased to some extent. The increase in the central level of the capital interest rate led to an upward trend in the bond market interest rate and a compression of the Carry space, resulting in bond market selling pressure [1][14]. - The bond cashing demand of the bank's OCI account is one of the factors pressuring the bond market. From September 1st to 26th, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were the main sellers in the bond market [2][18]. - Regulatory policy adjustments and the increasing expectation of restarting treasury bond trading also drove the bond market trend. The "new rule" led to a rapid correction in the bond market in early September, while the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading supported the rebound in mid - September [2][21]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market May Break Through the Downward Space in the Fourth Quarter - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds weakened in September. If the equity market turns into a slow - bull pattern in the fourth quarter, the suppression on the bond market from the equity market may ease [3][23]. - The price level is still in the repair stage, with PPI bottoming out and rising, but CPI has not shown signs of recovery. If the economic recovery slope is lower than expected or Sino - US economic and trade relations deteriorate unexpectedly, there is still a possibility of another interest rate cut this year [5][28]. - From the supply side, the fourth quarter is usually the "off - season" for government bond supply, but attention should be paid to the possible advance issuance of the special bonds for replacing hidden debts in 2026. Even if the supply pressure increases, the impact on the market may be relatively controllable, and the central bank may use open - market operations for hedging [6][33]. - From the demand side, even if the "new rule" is implemented in the fourth quarter, its impact on the bond market is likely to be short - term and frictional, not a trend - based decline in demand. The demand from core bond - market allocators such as wealth management and insurance remains strong [7][40]. 3.2 Important Matters - The net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan in September. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a maturity scale of 300 billion yuan in September [48]. 3.3 Money Market 3.3.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From September 22nd to 26th, the central bank injected a total of 2.4674 trillion yuan through reverse repurchase operations, with a maturity of 1.8268 trillion yuan, and the net injection was 640.6 billion yuan. It is expected that 516.6 billion yuan of base money will be recalled from September 29th to 30th [50]. - The inter - bank liquidity was tight first and then loose last week, mainly due to the central bank's protection of liquidity. As of September 26th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 16.49BP, 3.78BP, - 14.62BP, and 2.17BP respectively compared with September 19th [54]. 3.3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit showed a net outflow, with a net financing scale of - 188.79 billion yuan last week. The issuing scale of state - owned banks was the largest, but they also had the largest net outflow [59][63]. - The issuing interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit at all maturities showed an upward trend [64][67]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds was relatively small last week. The total actual issuance was 60.834 billion yuan, with a maturity of 9.2 billion yuan and a net financing of 51.634 billion yuan [68]. - In the secondary market, the bond market sentiment was relatively weak last week, showing an upward trend in the shock, and the curve shape became steeper. The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year CDB bond active bonds decreased, and the liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased [68][77]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally in August but was at a seasonal low year - on - year. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased last week, with an average of about 7.27 trillion yuan [94][99]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years and 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks continued to sell but with a reduced intensity; insurance institutions continued to increase their holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds sold significantly [104]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.85% [107]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures decreased, while those of cathode copper, cement, and glass increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased [117]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased, and the vegetable wholesale price increased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased [117]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.12 last week [117].

分区域看，对美出口增长6.1%，对华出口增长1.6%，而对欧盟和东南亚国家出口增速更为突出。尤金 投资证券经济学家李正勋强调，作为韩国前两大贸易伙伴，对美国和中国的出口均受到美方关税政策的 压制。 进口方面，预计9月进口将增长5.6%，扭转8月下降4.1%的颓势，创13个月来最快增速。9月贸易顺差预 估中值为78.1亿美元，高于上月的65.1亿美元。 韩国官方将于首尔时间10月1日(周三)上午9点公布9月贸易数据，相当于北京时间上午8点。 然而，经济学家对韩美贸易谈判前景仍存隐忧。因韩国尚未正式签署7月与特朗普政府达成的初步协议 书面文件，双方贸易磋商可能陷入长期拉锯。 渣打银行分析师指出，尽管出口增长加速，但汽车和机械行业正面临美国持续关税压力，可能制约后续 增长空间。 从本月前20天数据看，出口整体增长13.5%，其中半导体出口激增27%，但日均出口额同比下降10.6%， 显示工作日增加带来的基数效应显著。 一项最新调查显示，受技术需求强劲及日历效应双重利好推动，韩国9月出口增速有望创13个月新高。 根据19位经济学家预测中值，本月韩国出口预计同比增长7.2%，较上月修正后1.2%的增幅(为三个月来 最慢 ...

三部门发文 债券回购是金融机构之间以债券为标的的短期资金融通行为，也是国际上应用最广泛的流动性管理工具 之一。记者了解到，公告发布后，银行间债券市场的境外机构投资者均可参与债券回购业务，包括通过 直接入市和"债券通"渠道入市的全部境外机构投资者。境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务，将采取国际 市场通行做法，实现标的债券过户和可使用。 近年来，中国人民银行有序推动银行间债券市场债券回购业务对外开放。自2015年起，支持境外主权类 机构、境外人民币业务清算行和境外参加行在银行间市场开展债券回购业务，2025年与香港金管局共同 推出以"债券通"北向通债券为标的的离岸回购业务。 截至2025年8月末，共有来自80个国家和地区的1170家境外机构进入中国债券市场，持债总量约4万亿元 人民币。 [ 责编：金昱希 ] 支持境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务 本报北京9月28日电（记者徐佩玉）中国人民银行、中国证监会、国家外汇局近日联合发布公告，支持 可在中国债券市场开展债券现券交易的境外机构投资者开展债券回购业务。 ...