Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the previous positive factors are digested and domestic tire inventory rises and export growth slows [4] - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend. Although methanol has seen an oversold rebound after the previous negative factors were digested, the current supply - demand structure remains weak [4] - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a stable and volatile trend as the previous negative factors are digested and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut rises [5] Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.31 million tons or 0.50% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, while general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [8] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9] - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9] Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10] - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 310,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons [11] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.47 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12] - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% from the July average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% from the July average [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | - 825 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,335 yuan/ton | 2,405 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | + 15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.2 yuan/barrel | 493.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.4 yuan/barrel | + 4.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Group 1 - The rubber sector experienced a rise of 2.15% on August 22, with Zhen'an Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3825.76, up 1.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12166.06, up 2.07% [1] - Zhen'an Technology's stock price increased by 19.98% to 25.34, with a trading volume of 498,100 shares and a transaction value of 1.167 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 118 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 16.9879 million yuan [2] - The trading performance of other notable stocks in the rubber sector included Tian Tie Technology, which rose by 9.95% to 8.84, and Kechuang New Source, which increased by 3.08% to 49.91 [1][2] - The overall trading volume and transaction values for various stocks in the rubber sector indicate active market participation, with significant movements in stock prices [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆ [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and suggests a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different influencing factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with stable spot sales basis and average spot trading. Pure cotton yarn trading was okay with stable prices. - In July 2025, domestic cotton inventory digestion slowed down, expected to improve in August as the peak season approaches. - In July, cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% or 1.48 million tons. - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang this year with more planting area and good weather. - Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of inland enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Due to insufficient precipitation, the sugarcane yield per unit in Brazil decreased. As of the end of June, the cumulative yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil was 79.32 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.04%. - The production progress this year was slow, leading to a significant year - on - year decrease in sugarcane and sugar production. - The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production increased year - on - year, and the sugar - alcohol ratio is at the upper edge of the historical range, so there is pressure on the upside of US sugar. - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales were fast this year, with inventory decreasing year - on - year and relatively light spot pressure. - The market focus has shifted to imports and the estimated output of the next crushing season. Syrup imports decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure of domestic sugar. However, the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and subsequent weather and sugarcane growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The price of early - maturing apples was basically stable, with high - quality apples having a high price and good purchasing enthusiasm from merchants. - The remaining inventory of cold - storage apples was small, and market demand was average. As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 461,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the de - stocking volume was 50,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31%. - The market focus has shifted to the estimated output of the new season. Although the western production area was affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on output was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the estimated output due to sufficient flower quantity in the production area this year. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased, the port price of external butadiene was stable, and the prices in the Thai raw material market fluctuated. - Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is still heavy rainfall in most Southeast Asian production areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with some plants restarting and some under maintenance or low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased significantly. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished product inventory of tire enterprises increased. - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 617,000 tons, with an increase in bonded area inventory and a decrease in general trade inventory. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 11,500 tons, and this week, the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased significantly to 27,300 tons as imported goods arrived. - Overall, demand is average, rubber supply is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures continued to decline. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was stable at 5,450 yuan/ton, the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish decreased by 50 yuan to 4,150 yuan/ton. - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. - In July, domestic social retail data weakened month - on - month, indicating a decline in domestic demand. Currently, port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. - Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The external price has rebounded for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot price was small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low. - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 600,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions. - As of August 15, the total national port log inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The total log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. - Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but peak - season demand has not started yet. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Unilateral: BR is expected to move upward in a consolidation phase; Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The domestic butadiene market showed minor fluctuations this period. Affected by partial plant maintenance and reduced operation, domestic butadiene production decreased. Although inventory increased due to ship arrivals, there was no significant pressure on the supply side. Meanwhile, the relatively good operation of downstream industries provided some support to the market [3] - The domestic cis - butadiene rubber supply maintained an increase. The market was influenced by macro - capital speculation and the significant trend of natural rubber. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly. However, at the end of the period, due to rapid capital withdrawal from the futures market and some uncertain rumors about the upstream supply in China and South Korea, the futures and spot markets fluctuated widely [3] Price and Spread - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2510.SHF was 11,715 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 11,790 yuan/ton, up 2.03%. The trading volume was 106,881 lots, down 36.78%; the open interest was 38,436 lots, down 62,183 lots or 36.78% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of domestic butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of butadiene in Shandong was 9,400 - 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber in different brands and regions also had certain differences [3] - **Futures Spread**: There were various changes in monthly spreads, cross - month spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For example, the spread between the second and third contracts of BR increased by 200% to 5 yuan/ton [3] Operation Strategy - Unilateral: BR is expected to move upward in a consolidation phase; Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rubber market shows a volatile performance. As the commodity market approaches the September delivery, it returns to the fundamental logic. The previous "anti - involution" trading expectation has cooled down, leading to weak commodity sentiment. Rubber may follow a volatile and weak trend. The recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the arbitrage of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 price is 15720, up 45 from the previous value; NR主力 is 12600, up 75; BR主力 is 11775, up 60 [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is 316.5 yen/kg, up 2.7; Sicom TF is 170.8 cents/kg, unchanged [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2601 - RU2509 is 1000, up 45; RU2605 - RU2601 is 95, down 10; NR主力 - 次主力 is - 20, down 70; BR主力 - 次主力 is 20, up 10 [3]. - **Futures Spreads**: RU - NR is 3120, down 30; RU - BR is 3945, down 15; NR - BR is 825, up 15 [3]. - **Cross - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is 42, down 12; NR - Sicom TF ($) is 47, up 11 [3]. Raw Material Prices - **Thailand**: Glue price is 54.70 baht/kg, cup - rubber price is 49.20 baht/kg, down 0.15 [3][5]. - **Hainan and Yunnan**: Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hainan glue for whole - milk is 13200 yuan/ton, down 200; Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk is 14200 yuan/ton, up 100 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Thailand is 929, up 55; Hainan is 640, unchanged [3]. - **Smoked Sheet and No.20 Rubber Gross Profits**: Thailand No.20 rubber is - 189, unchanged; domestic 9710 is 250, unchanged [3]. Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole - milk is 14750, unchanged; Vietnam 3L is 14900, up 50; Thai mixed is 14620, up 90; Malaysian mixed is 14570, up 90 [3]. - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard is 12903, up 90; domestic standard No.2 is 13850, unchanged [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene rubber BR9000 is 11750, up 150; styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12300, up 150; styrene - butadiene SBR1712 is 11300, up 100 [3]. Overseas Spot - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF is 1815, up 20; Malaysian standard CIF is 1810, up 25; Indian standard CIF is 1735, up 15 [3]. Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed is 100, down 90; RU - old whole - milk is - 30, unchanged; RU - Vietnam 3L is - 180, down 50 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 568, down 70; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is 6, down 70; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is - 532, down 105 [3]. Spot Spreads - **Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 10, up 5; Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed is 280, down 40; domestic standard No.2 - Thai mixed is - 770, down 90 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: Thailand's raw material glue price is 54.7 baht/kg, cup - rubber price is 49.20 baht/kg [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 128.5 tons, up 0.75 tons, an increase of 0.6%; dark - colored rubber social total inventory is 80.6 tons, up 1.2%; light - colored rubber social total inventory is 47.9 tons, down 0.4% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month - on - month and 7.01 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month - on - month and down 7.81 percentage points year - on - year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral [5] - BR is rated neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain stops. Currently, the overall supply pressure is small, but there is an expectation of increased supply at the end of August. Downstream tire开工率 shows a divided trend, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the supply is expected to increase next week. The downstream tire开工率 is divided, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,720 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the NR main contract was at 12,600 yuan/ton (+75 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,775 yuan/ton (+60 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton), Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15 US dollars/ton), Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton) [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery due to factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old operating trucks, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million pieces; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million pieces; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000 pieces; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million pieces; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million pieces [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,100 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,148 yuan/ton (- 35.31), the NR basis was 303.00 yuan/ton (+15.00); whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90), 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (+50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,320 yuan/ton (+90) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.15) [4] -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+2.35%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+2.76%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,090 yuan/ton (+99) [5] -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis BR was 69.15% (+4.63%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and on the strong side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.06% to 15765 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian and domestic producing areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, with high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has falling inventory, reduced operating loads, blocked exports, and slowed growth. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also affects the market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.25% to 11820 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has falling inventory, reduced operating loads, blocked exports, and slowed growth. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut impacts the market [7].

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 21, cup rubber is priced at 49.20 THB/kg (-0.15), while latex is at 54.70 THB/kg (0). Yunnan rubber water procurement price is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,810 USD/ton (+20), and Thai mixed at 14,600 CNY/ton (+50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month-on-month, but down 7.81 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month-on-month and up 7.01 percentage points year-on-year. The production of repaired enterprises has returned to normal, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory of tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of August 21, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days month-on-month and up 10.57 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days month-on-month and down 3.92 days year-on-year [1] Market Conditions and Price Trends - Continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas has led to insufficient upstream supply, keeping raw material prices at high levels. The reduction in Qingdao's spot inventory has slowed, and the increase in alternative planting in Yunnan has led to a rise in social inventory in China, expanding market bearish sentiment. Near the end of the month, agents may slightly increase their purchasing volume to meet monthly targets, while downstream continues to focus on regular replenishment [3] - External factors may slow trading in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and safety concerns may lead to suspensions in mining and engineering operations in other areas, negatively impacting overall replacement demand. The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with mixed bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to price fluctuations primarily within the range of 15,000 to 16,500. Future attention will be on the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in major producing areas [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]