Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since 2025, driven by the DeepSeek concept and southbound capital, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 40% year-to-date [1] Southbound Capital Flow - As of mid-April, southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 604.1 billion HKD, nearing 75% of the total inflow for 2024 [3] - The size of mainland investable Hong Kong stock ETFs surged to 179 billion HKD by the end of Q1, a 45% increase quarter-on-quarter, with March alone seeing a net inflow of 23.4 billion HKD [3] - The trend indicates a significant shift towards ETF investments by individual investors, contrasting with the relatively stable growth of active equity public funds [3] Fund Holdings Structure - Public funds are increasingly concentrating on new economy sectors, with their holdings in these areas rising from 71% in Q4 2024 to 79.3% [4] - Key sectors benefiting from increased allocations include e-commerce, semiconductors, biotechnology, and media entertainment, while traditional sectors like consumer services and energy are seeing a decline [4] - The concentration of holdings among public funds has reached a five-year high, with the top three holdings (Tencent, Alibaba, SMIC) accounting for 39.8% of the market value of the top 100 holdings [4] Future Southbound Capital Potential - Projections suggest that total southbound capital inflow for 2025 could reach between 800 billion to 1 trillion HKD, with a certain increase of 200 to 300 billion HKD expected [5] - If the proportion of active equity fund holdings rises to 35-40%, it could contribute an additional 75 to 150 billion HKD [5] - The emotional-driven nature of ETF investments may increase market volatility, making precise predictions challenging [5] Market Outlook - The Hang Seng Index target scenarios include a baseline of 20,500 points, an optimistic scenario reaching 23,000 to 24,000 points, and a pessimistic scenario dropping to 18,000 to 19,000 points [6] - Investment strategies should focus on internet technology stocks with low export exposure, cyclical sectors like consumption and infrastructure if fiscal policies are strengthened, and closely monitor export-related sectors for U.S. tariff policy changes [6]

以稳待胜 - 4 月政治局会议解读 20250428 • 政治局会议强调外部冲击加大，将经贸问题上升到斗争高度，政策重心向 外事倾斜。面对出口压力，内需需对冲，但政策保持底线思维，通过高质 量发展应对不确定性，避免大规模刺激。 • 内需方面，强调提高中低收入群体收入，抓手包括服务消费、两新两重。 服务消费被特别强调，两新要扩围，两重则要加力。这些措施旨在保民生， 并多措并举帮扶困难企业，加强融资支持。 • 防风险方面，地方债风险重新被放在首位，重点强调加快解决地方政府拖 欠企业账款问题，以改善企业现金流，从而保护企业主体，这与去年 12 月中央经济工作会议精神相符。 • 财政政策强调存量资金的使用，专项债和特别国债发行进度较慢，未来可 能需要提速。特别国债计划从 4 月持续到 10 月，二季度或调整单笔发行 规模，加快发行进度。 • 货币政策方面，增量主要体现在结构性工具上，新增设立了新的结构性货 币政策工具和新型政策性金融工具，以支持科技创新、消费和稳定外贸， 或类似于 2022 年央行与政策性银行共同发力。 Q&A 4 月份政治局会议的整体解读是什么？ 4 月份的政治局会议整体符合预期，主要以加快存量政策 ...

周五，大家最关心的月底会议发布了会议纪要。 总结一句话，经济呈现向好趋势，社会信心持续提振。 大家最关心的三个方面的表述如下： 1、宏观经济政策方面：加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 表述和之前基调一致。但由于本周川普撞了南墙，这两天多次提到已经开始和我们洽谈，我方连续回应没有收到美方要洽谈的消息。 至少，表面上来看不像月初那般"强硬"。既然你川普不打算硬钢（伤敌八百，自损三千）到底，那工具箱里面的政策，可以先按下不表。 所以，大家期待的降息降准没那么快，更别提其他方面的刺激政策。 于是，周五A股冲高回落。 2、会议开始之前，房地产明显是有异动的，据说相关小作文不少。 会议针对房地产的内容是：加力实施城市更新活动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存量商 品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 注意，基调与之前发生了改变。巩固一词明确的表示出，认为房地产此时已经企稳，不需要再加大刺激，而是要继续保持"稳定"。 房地产板块直线跳水 3、针对内需消费方面的表述：大力发展服务消费，设立服务消费和仰赖再贷款，加大资金支 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors.

Core Viewpoint - The spring capital market forum hosted by CITIC Securities emphasized the emergence of new core assets in China, particularly in the domestic computing power chain, which are expected to expand to a market value of $100 billion [1][2]. Group 1: New Core Assets - CITIC Securities highlighted that new core assets, driven by trends such as AI equity and domestic computing power, are expanding and have the potential to reach a market value of $100 billion [2][3]. - Traditional core assets, including sectors like LED, security, service robots, and integrated circuits, have about 30% of companies that have turned around in their operations [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently in a volatile phase, and a breakthrough will require the support of core assets rather than scattered themes [2]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support technology, supply-side reforms, and consumer promotion policies, which will positively influence the market [2]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - In addition to technology, the consumer sector is also viewed positively by several brokerage firms, with a focus on themes related to consumer iteration such as "self-economy" and "initial public offerings" [4]. - The improvement in asset prices is anticipated to gradually enhance consumer demand through wealth effects, supported by monetary and fiscal policies [4]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by three main features of a bull market: the need for asset allocation, significant available position space, and a high tolerance for valuations [6]. - The inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market indicates a sustained bullish sentiment, supported by strong earnings from tech stocks and signs of economic stabilization [7].