Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with support at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index Data Tracking - On July 26, 2025, the current - month contracts of the four major futures indices showed mixed performance. IF fell 0.48%, IH fell 0.58%, IC fell 0.02%, and IM rose 0.03% [1]. - In terms of closing prices, index values were as follows: CSI 300 was 4127.16, SSE 50 was 2795.51, CSI 500 was 6299.59, and CSI 1000 was 6706.61 [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of futures indices declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. IF's total trading volume decreased by 21687 lots, IH's by 6615 lots, IC's by 18535 lots, and IM's by 45693 lots [2]. - In terms of positions, IF's total position decreased by 11192 lots, IH's by 3451 lots, IC's by 4233 lots, and IM's by 11290 lots [2]. 3.2. Futures Index Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - order changes of IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were - 3625, - 5795, and 532 respectively; the short - order changes were - 4398, - 6036, and 881 respectively [5]. - For IH contracts, the long - order changes of IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were - 8, - 2468, and - 154 respectively; the short - order changes were - 508, - 2599, and - 51 respectively [5]. - For IC contracts, the long - order changes of IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were - 2215, - 1875, and - 182 respectively; the short - order changes were - 2087, - 2628, and 298 respectively [5]. - For IM contracts, the long - order changes of IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were - 2637, - 6387, and - 540 respectively; the short - order changes were - 3420, - 7360, and 142 respectively [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with different levels of strength classification [6]. - The CSRC held a mid - year work meeting, emphasizing the basis and conditions for maintaining the stable and healthy operation of the capital market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Expenditures in key areas such as social security and employment, science and technology, education, and health increased [6]. - The US Secretary of Commerce said that the tariff increase deadline on August 1 would not be extended [6]. - A high - level US business delegation is set to visit China [6]. 3.4. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%. The A - share market's full - day trading volume was 1.82 trillion yuan, down from 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, with all three major indices rising for five consecutive weeks [7]. - In the afternoon session, funds flowed out of cyclical stocks and back into the technology sector. Lithography machines and STAR Market chip stocks were in high demand, and Cambricon once rose 16%. The film and television and rare earth sectors were also active [7].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].

Index Trends - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.3 points, with a trading volume of 857.046 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to close at 11059.04 points, with a trading volume of 1007.554 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.45% with a trading volume of 378.33 billion yuan. The opening price was 6634.12, the closing price was 6607.22, the highest price was 6667.86, and the lowest price was 6594.48 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.27% with a trading volume of 311.06 billion yuan. The opening price was 6218.21, the closing price was 6196.76, the highest price was 6256.15, and the lowest price was 6187.01 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.32% with a trading volume of 130.89 billion yuan. The opening price was 2798.96, the closing price was 2801.2, the highest price was 2824.86, and the lowest price was 2794.81 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 29.88 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Machinery, and Power Equipment significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 16.65 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Electronics and Machinery significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Basic Chemicals, National Defense and Military Industry, and Power Equipment significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 0.81 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Banks, and Household Appliances significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Power Equipment, and Machinery significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 9.02 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Banks, and Electronics significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Power Equipment, and Machinery significantly pulled the index down [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 48.5, IM01 was - 119.08, IM02 was - 302.24, and IM03 was - 461.12 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 34.98, IC01 was - 84.14, IC02 was - 208.95, and IC03 was - 322.64 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 5.22, IF01 was - 13.77, IF02 was - 44.24, and IF03 was - 74.51 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.54, IH01 was 0.86, IH02 was 3.02, and IH03 was 4.05 [12]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and annualized costs of IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time points are provided, including specific values at 09:45, 10:00, etc. [23][24][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the stock index futures market, the pro - cyclical theme continues to ferment, and the A - share market has increased in volume. In the bond market, it is in a weak and stable state, and the short - term is affected by the rebound of risk preference. The precious metals market is strong due to the weakening of the US dollar. The shipping futures market is expected to be weak. Most non - ferrous metals show different trends of rise and fall, and the black metal market is generally on the rise. The agricultural product market has different performances in different varieties [2][7][10][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On July 22, major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3581.86 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 1.12% and 0.90% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.15% and 0.66% respectively [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in China for reinvestment. Overseas, EU leaders will visit China [3] - **Funding**: On July 22, the A - share trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan, and the north - bound capital trading volume was 2414.97 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indices maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the performance reporting period, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board on July 22. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **News**: The A - share market rose, and most domestic commodity futures closed higher [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The risk - on sentiment suppresses the bond market, but the current fundamentals are still in a weak and stable state, which is bullish for the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Affected by multiple factors such as US trade negotiations and the possible continuation of Fed Chairman Powell's tenure, the US dollar index continued to fall, and gold and silver prices were strong. International gold closed at $3431.38 per ounce, up 1.02%, and international silver closed at $39.285 per ounce, up 0.94% [9][10] - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and the current market lacks a clear driver. Silver has a large change in physical demand, and the price center may move up. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 22, the spot prices of major shipping companies showed different levels [12] - **Index**: As of July 21, the SCFIS European line index fell 0.89% month - on - month, and the US West line index rose 2.78% [12] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year. The demand side showed different PMI data in the eurozone and the US [13] - **Logic**: The futures price fell on July 22. As the peak season is coming to an end, the spot price is expected to decline, and the sentiment of the main contract will be suppressed [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [14] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 79755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [15] - **Macro**: The domestic anti - involution policy boosts copper demand and may promote the clearance of smelting capacity [16] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper is expected to increase in July [17] - **Demand**: The demand for copper has certain resilience, and the power and new energy sectors support the demand [18] - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [18] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [19] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 22, the average spot price of alumina in various regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton [19] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased [20] - **Inventory**: The port inventory and registered warehouse receipts of alumina decreased [20] - **Logic**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the risk of short - squeeze, the price rose strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the market is slightly oversupplied [21] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be strong above 3100 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in July [22] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the start - up rate increased slightly last week [23] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory increased [23] - **Logic**: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [24] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [24] - **Supply**: In July, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly [25] - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the trading activity has decreased [25] - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and some areas are close to full storage [25] - **Logic**: The price of the aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price to rise slightly, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [27] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in July [28] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of the three primary processing industries are differentiated, and the overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [29] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [29] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is under pressure in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [30] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [30] Tin - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of SMM 1 tin was 266300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from the previous day [30] - **Supply**: In May, the import of tin ore and tin ingots increased [31] - **Demand and Inventory**: The start - up rate of solder decreased in June, and the LME inventory decreased [32][33] - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be repaired, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for the time being [33] - **Operation Suggestion**: Avoid short positions for the time being and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [33] Nickel - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous day [33] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is expected to increase slightly in July [34] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [34] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory has increased [34] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [35] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [36] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [37] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore has loosened, and the price of nickel iron has improved slightly [37] - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease in July [38] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing [38] - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [39] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [40] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous day [40] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in July, and the supply is relatively sufficient [41] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, and the seasonal performance is weakened [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory in all links is increasing [43] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment supports the price, but the fundamental logic has not changed. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to operate between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of steel billets and steel products increased [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has increased, but the steel price has also risen, and the profit of steel mills has increased [45] - **Supply**: The molten iron output has increased, and the production of steel mills is expected to increase [45] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products has remained stable at a high level [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has remained stable at a low level [46] - **Logic**: The anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the steel price is expected to continue to rise [47] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of mainstream iron ore powder increased [48] - **Futures**: The main 09 contract and the far - month 01 contract of iron ore rose [48] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties showed different levels [48] - **Demand**: The molten iron output and blast furnace operating rate increased [48] - **Supply**: The global shipment volume decreased slightly, and the arrival volume increased [48] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [49] - **Logic**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply is expected to be stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [49] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [49] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coking coal futures limit - up, and the spot price increased [50] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mines is slow, and the supply is still in short supply [51] - **Demand**: The coking and blast furnace operations are stable, and the demand for coking coal is relatively strong [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly [52] - **Logic**: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tightened, and the price is expected to continue to rise [52] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [52] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coke futures limit - up, and the second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented [53] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [53] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mines and corporate losses [53] - **Demand**: The demand for coke has increased due to the increase in molten iron output [54] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [55] - **Logic**: The price of coke is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in demand and the decrease in inventory [55] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in hedging operations [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On July 22, the price of domestic soybean meal was stable or increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The excellent rate of US soybeans has decreased, and the export inspection volume has increased [56][57] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to be supported at the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal is recommended to be cautiously bullish [57][58] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: On July 22, the spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding has decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has decreased [60] - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates, and the upward drive of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [60][61] Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable or increased slightly [62] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangzhou Port has increased [62] - **Market Outlook**: The market sentiment is stable, and the corn price is expected to rebound and fluctuate [62]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

1. Index Trends - On July 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, with a trading volume of 730.906 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, with a trading volume of 969.074 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%, with a trading volume of 359.908 billion yuan, opening at 6,557.25, closing at 6,612.26, with a daily high of 6,614.61 and a low of 6,555.04 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, with a trading volume of 272.008 billion yuan, opening at 6,115.03, closing at 6,161.31, with a daily high of 6,162.44 and a low of 6,110.99 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 96.839 billion yuan, opening at 2,770.36, closing at 2,772.24, with a daily high of 2,777.05 and a low of 2,763.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.67%, with a trading volume of 377.939 billion yuan, opening at 4,069.77, closing at 4,085.61, with a daily high of 4,086.12 and a low of 4,063.44 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 60.19 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [5]. - The CSI 500 rose 61.7 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [5]. - The SSE 300 rose 27.06 points from the previous closing price, with sectors like power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [5]. - The SSE 50 rose 7.72 points from the previous closing price, with non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and power equipment driving the index up, and pharmaceutical biology and the banking sector pulling it down [5]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 50.58, IM01 of - 120.58, IM02 of - 303.37, and IM03 of - 462.59 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 37.03, IC01 of - 85.76, IC02 of - 210.76, and IC03 of - 322.81 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.09, IF01 of - 15.75, IF02 of - 47.51, and IF03 of - 73.04 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.92, IH01 of 1.2, IH02 of 4.32, and IH03 of 6.2 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts from 09:45 to 15:00 [21][23][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodity futures. It assesses market trends, key factors influencing prices, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on different market conditions. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed an upward trend, with cyclical sectors rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and the basis of the main contracts was seasonally repaired. With the market breaking through the annual high, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 for the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish stance [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, causing the bond market to decline across the board. Although the current fundamentals are still in a weak stabilization state, which is generally favorable for the bond market, the macro situation is complex in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies, and consider appropriately betting on a steeper yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - The trade friction between the US and the EU and concerns about the US fiscal deficit have intensified, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a continuous rise in precious metals. Gold has a long - term bullish trend, and silver has further upward potential above $38 in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver [7][9][11]. Shipping Futures (Container Shipping) - The EC main contract fluctuated. The spot price increase drove the rise of the 08 contract, but the cancellation of the high - price quotes by CMA may impact the near - month contracts. It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the anti - involution policy, the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the demand weakens during the off - season, the domestic macro - policy support and low inventory provide a bottom for the copper price. The main contract is expected to trade between 78,500 and 81,000 [14][17]. - **Alumina**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the increasing risk of a short squeeze, the price is expected to be strong in the short term and trade above 3100 yuan. In the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the potential oversupply [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The market sentiment is bullish, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract trading between 20,200 and 21,000 [20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract trading between 19,400 and 20,200 [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased both at home and abroad, and the macro sentiment has boosted the price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract trading between 22,000 and 23,500 [25][28]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment is strong, but the supply is expected to recover, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has boosted the price, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 118,000 and 126,000 [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates strongly, but the demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract trading between 12,600 and 13,200 [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by the strong macro sentiment, the price continues to rise, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The price is expected to trade strongly in the short term, with the main contract trading between 68,000 and 74,000. It is recommended to wait and see [38][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The anti - involution expectation has strengthened, driving up the steel price. The profit of steel mills has increased, and the production enthusiasm has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions and avoid short positions, with potential resistance at 3250 for rebar and 3400 for hot - rolled coils [43][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has improved, and the increase in molten iron production and steel mill replenishment support the price. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 2509 contract [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction flow - rate has decreased, and the coal mine复产 progress is lower than expected. The spot price is strong, and the demand for downstream replenishment is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 09 contract [49][52]. - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been initiated by mainstream coking plants. The price is expected to continue to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 09 contract [53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The US soybeans have strong support at the bottom, and the import cost supports the domestic meal price. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias [56][58]. - **Pigs**: Policy support benefits the pig futures, but the spot price fluctuates. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but there is pressure above 14,500 for the 09 contract [59][61]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is basically stable, and the price rebounds and fluctuates. In the short term, the supply is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and pay attention to subsequent policy auctions [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][3][4] - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as international policies, economic data, supply and demand relationships, and seasonal patterns, and the trends of different products vary [15][16][20] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 09 contract down 1.98% and SC09 contract up 2.3%. After the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, oil prices first rose and then fell. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the oil price trend has shifted from strong to volatile [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expected increase in the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil producing areas is limited, and demand lacks drive. FU cracking continues to decline. LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than that of SC since mid - July, and its cracking has also declined [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, refinery production is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory has slightly increased, while factory inventory has decreased significantly. Overall, supply increase resilience needs to be observed, demand remains weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, with the BU price showing an upward trend [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists, and overseas prices continue to fluctuate weakly. Import costs have declined, but PDH margins remain stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is under pressure at the top. The market is in a summer off - season pattern, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The recent macro - sentiment is positive, and precious metals are relatively stable. Due to high uncertainty in US tariff policies, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio still has room to decline [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper rose close to $9,800, and SHFE copper's main contract shifted to 2509. The domestic copper industry's capacity regulation space is limited. The previous 2508 option portfolio expired this week [4] - **Aluminum**: Affected by the news of the upcoming ten - key - industry growth - stabilization plan, non - ferrous metals are generally strong. Aluminum ingot and billet inventory accumulation is not smooth, and SHFE aluminum may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: Black prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment has improved. The import window is closed, and the external market drives the internal market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and supply is expected to increase. The SHFE zinc term structure has flattened, and it is still considered a rebound - under - pressure situation [8] - **Lead**: Both domestic and foreign inventories have increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs. The price has declined. However, the cost support is strong. The price has stopped falling at 16,800 yuan/ton and may face resistance at the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. Technically, SHFE nickel still has room to rebound, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [10] - **Tin**: LME tin has been volatile, and SHFE tin is supported at 260,000 yuan. The main contract has shifted to 2509. Social inventory has increased. High - level short positions from the previous period are held [11] - **Other Metal - related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows SHFE aluminum and is in a strong - volatile state, but trading is inactive. Despite weak industrial demand, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it may be more resilient than aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: On Friday night, alumina prices rose sharply. Supply - side policy expectations have strengthened, but domestic operating capacity has reached a historical high, and there is a possibility of mine restart in Guinea. After the sharp rise driven by expectations, there is a risk of correction [7] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: As of July 15, about 7% of US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought. The US - India trade agreement and Indonesia's potential B50 biodiesel plan have boosted US agricultural product prices. In China, oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is mainly guided by US soybean - producing area weather [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has risen strongly, and soybean oil has followed. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending ratio and the competitiveness of its palm oil in the export market have pushed up prices. Long - term, a long - at - low strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed exports may be affected by Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to be volatile in the short term, and factors such as weather, policies, and biodiesel should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn rose on Friday night. Cofco's increased auctions have affected market expectations, and the auction success rate of US - imported corn was low. Dalian corn futures may continue to bottom - oscillate [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig prices have rebounded slightly. However, the overall supply is abundant in the medium - term, and the industry can participate in short - hedging at high prices [41] - **Eggs**: Large - sized egg prices have strengthened slightly, while small - sized egg prices have weakened. Cold - storage eggs are being released, suppressing price increases. Long - term, the egg - price cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen continuously, but there are concerns about a potential short - squeeze. Pure - cotton yarn prices have increased, but downstream procurement is still cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of the textile - industry growth - stabilization plan [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar is in a downward trend, and the Brazilian production outlook is negative. In China, sugar imports are low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased, and sugar prices are expected to be volatile [44] - **Apples**: Apple futures are volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased year - on - year. The market is focused on new - season yield estimates, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood futures have rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and due to low inventory and historical - low prices, there is an expectation of price increase. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures have continued to rise. Port inventory has decreased, but domestic imports are still high. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares have increased in volume and oscillated higher. US economic data has been positive, and policies have boosted market risk appetite. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy, and a strategy of increasing technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures have oscillated. The market has fully priced in the expectation of monetary easing. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is still strong, and most airlines may raise prices in early August. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [20] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports have increased significantly, and port inventory has accumulated rapidly. Domestic producers are planning autumn maintenance, but some may postpone it due to good profits. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream - device changes [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic pure - benzene production has increased slightly, and port supply is abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. A month - spread band - trading strategy is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Main - port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened, dragging down the futures market [27] - **Polypropylene and Polyethylene**: The cost - side oil price is volatile. Polyethylene supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Polypropylene has some support from ongoing maintenance, but downstream demand is still sluggish [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Affected by the news of backward - capacity elimination, PVC has shown a strong trend. Caustic soda is also strong, but there are concerns about long - term supply increases and weak downstream acceptance [29] - **PX and PTA**: PTA's processing margin is low, and demand is weak, which drags down PX. There are expectations of PTA processing - margin repair [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production has declined, and port inventory has decreased. The price has strengthened, and a short - term long - position strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chips**: Short - fiber production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. Bottle - grade chips production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The short - fiber spot processing margin has repaired, while the bottle - grade chips processing margin has oscillated [32]