我们先看一下从清明节的这个大跌到五一节之后从逐渐从下跌转入到一个反弹之后的一个正当行情那么在宏观方面呢其实也是比较纷繁复杂我们看一下宏观方面我们看到近期的数据就是美国第一季度它的实际GDP呢在2022年以来的首次萎缩 国内这块的话呢这个所有的官方制造业的PMI呢也显示了这个景气水平的回落所以中美的这个宏观方面都会带来因为这个贸易的原因带来了一定的忧虑但是我们看到近期的一个国内的一个会议对于整个政策的一个支撑的预期还是比较强的再加上近期的一个中美的一个接触贸易有这个贸易摩擦也有这个缓和的预期 也是给前期的这个利空带来了一定的这个边际修复但是我们还是需要关注一下他的一个实地的落地情况还是需要去关注的就是宏观的风险还没有完全的过去我们再看一下这个基本面这一块我们看一下基本面这块其实从供给上来说呢国内一直都是面临一个铜金矿比较紧张再加上近期我们看到整个冷料的供应预期呢也开始了偏紧 还是面临这个原料紧张的这个问题看到我们后面会看到铜晶矿还是属于这个偏负的还是属于负值然后像这个阳极板包括一些粗铜的加工费也是在下降所以整个原料端其实还是预期包括现实都是比较偏紧的那么对于演练厂而言它面临的这个生产压力还是没有还是没有解除所以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Economic Overview - The June economic data reveals five "anomalies," indicating new changes in the economy that may affect the second half of the year [9] - The GDP growth for Q2 was in line with expectations at 5.2%, while retail sales and fixed asset investment showed signs of decline [9] - The construction industry has weakened significantly, impacting overall economic performance [9] Company Analysis: 德源药业 (DeYuan Pharmaceutical) - The company focuses on chronic metabolic diseases and has a robust portfolio of generic drugs, with plans to transition to innovative drug development [12] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 192 million, 218 million, and 200 million yuan respectively, with a target market capitalization of 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a potential 42% upside [12] - The company is advancing in innovative drug development, particularly in diabetes and hypertension treatments, with significant market opportunities identified [12] Industry Analysis: Chemical Sector - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery after price declines, with signs of bottoming out and increased supply disruptions [11][14] - Key sub-sectors such as pesticides, fluorochemicals, and explosives are expected to see profit growth in Q2 2025, driven by improved demand and pricing [11] - The industry is shifting from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, indicating a more stable supply-demand balance moving forward [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "buy" rating for 德源药业 based on its growth potential and market positioning in the pharmaceutical sector [12] - The chemical sector is rated positively, with a focus on companies that can benefit from the ongoing recovery and supply chain improvements [11][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 is significantly driven by macroeconomic factors, reflecting weak demand from China and the U.S., as well as changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations. The second half of the year will continue to focus on economic and policy trends, with domestic "anti-involution" movements influencing market perceptions of capacity adjustments and commodity value reassessment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the commodity market experienced notable macro-driven changes, with geopolitical tensions pushing precious metals to new highs while domestic supply conditions pressured many commodities to near historical lows [6][20]. - The market can be divided into three phases: pre-February with concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty, March to mid-May with rising commodity risk sentiment, and post-mid-May following the Geneva agreement between China and the U.S. that led to a rebound in previously low-priced commodities [8][9][10]. - The market's basic reflection of policy environments and past economic changes indicates that spot prices for some assets are relatively effective, but intuitive trading based on insufficient analysis poses risks [3][19]. Group 2: U.S.-China Economic Cycle - The economic conditions of China and the U.S. significantly influence commodity pricing, with both countries experiencing a phase of weak demand, leading to overall market pressure [28][30]. - The cyclical relationship between China and the U.S. suggests that while there are opportunities for commodity rebounds, the overall adjustment cycle has not yet concluded [27][28]. - The "anti-involution" policies in China are interpreted as a direction to help industries escape competitive dilemmas, leading to a potential revaluation of commodity prices [26][43]. Group 3: Potential Trading Logic - Energy prices are sensitive to supply expectations, with OPEC+ decisions impacting market trends. The recent increase in production by OPEC+ has created a bearish trend, while U.S. policy shocks have further depressed prices [53][55]. - In the non-ferrous metals sector, U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding copper, are crucial for pricing dynamics, with inventory shifts affecting market conditions [60][61]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing adjustments due to low-price competition, necessitating industry self-discipline and policy regulation to restore balance [66][70]. Group 4: Agricultural Commodities - Weather conditions and trade flows are critical for agricultural commodities, with the summer season being pivotal for crop growth. Predictions indicate that extreme weather may not significantly impact yields this year [71][74]. - Changes in trade policies are likely to alter pricing logic, with potential shifts in trade flows affecting domestic pricing strategies for agricultural products [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic export and financial data are better than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic market. However, short - term external risks need to be noted. The domestic risk preference continues to rise, and the short - term optimistic sentiment persists [2][3]. - The short - term trends of various assets are as follows: The stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term; treasury bonds fluctuate at a high level; among commodity sectors, black metals rebound from a low level, non - ferrous metals fluctuate, energy and chemicals fluctuate, and precious metals fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US president's announcement of more tariff letters leads the EU to take counter - measures, and the market takes a wait - and - see attitude. Fed officials indicate no urgent need for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds in the short term [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continues to rise, and export and financial data in June are better than expected, with economic growth accelerating. Policy emphasizes "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, metals, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuate due to policy expectations and避险情绪. Silver shows a strong upward trend, and the gold - silver ratio is significantly repaired. In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Although the export in the first half of the year is good, the demand weakens in reality, and the supply decreases due to the implementation of production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the short - term steel market is still treated with a rebound mindset [5]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to rebound. The fundamentals of iron ore weaken marginally, and the implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. The short - term macro - logic dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remain flat, and the futures prices rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreases, and the short - term prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The concern about tariffs resurfaces. The future trend of copper prices depends on the time when tariffs are implemented. If implemented before August 1, copper prices will continue to weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum drops significantly. In addition to tariff concerns, the significant increase in social inventory is also an important factor [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the short - term price will fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [11]. Tin - The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rises significantly. The production increases, and the inventory accumulates. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rises. The production increases, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy [14]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon rises. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices change. Affected by policy news, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about tariffs continues, and the demand worry puts pressure on oil prices. However, the short - term tightness in the spot market supports the price [16][17]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates. The shipment volume decreases, the factory inventory starts to accumulate, and the demand in the peak season is average [17]. PX - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate weakly. The upstream profit is greatly reduced, and the downstream demand may weaken [17]. PTA - The PTA market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The price has limited upward space in the short term and may decline [18]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol returns significantly, and the demand slows down. It will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber follows the polyester sector and fluctuates weakly. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high [18][19]. Methanol - The fundamental situation of methanol deteriorates, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 01 contract can be considered for long positions [19]. PP - The supply pressure of PP increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down [19]. LLDPE - The demand for LLDPE is in the off - season, and the inventory increases. The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the long - term price center may move down [19]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The export inspection volume of US soybeans is lower than expected, and the压榨 volume is expected to decline. The future of Sino - US soybean trade relations will directly affect US soybeans [20]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are under pressure, and the risk of downward pressure on soybean meal and rapeseed meal increases. The consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far from expected, and the inventory is slow to decline [21][22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - The supply and demand of soybean oil are loose, and the price difference is weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil is slow to decline, and the policy premium support weakens [23]. Palm Oil - The inventory of palm oil is repaired, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term. However, the export demand may be supported [24]. Corn - Affected by factors such as the substitution of new wheat and the auction of imported corn, the corn market is under pressure. However, there is still a risk of rebound after the over - decline [25]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs increases, and the pig price is under pressure at a high level. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10684.52 points, down 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets was 623.1 billion yuan for Shanghai and 835.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector led the market gains, driven by a significant procurement project from China Mobile for humanoid biped robots, with a total budget of 124 million yuan, marking the largest single procurement in the domestic humanoid robot field [2] - In May, China's industrial robot production increased by 35.5% year-on-year, reaching 69,100 units, while service robot production grew by 13.8% to 1.2164 million units [2] - The export market share for China's industrial robots rose to second globally last year, with a 61.5% increase in exports in the first half of this year [2] Policy and Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to develop humanoid robots and improve common technology research and data infrastructure [3] - The Chinese robotics industry is positioned for growth due to recovering domestic and international demand, supportive policies, and enhanced product performance, suggesting a favorable long-term trend for domestic brands [3] Bond Market - Different maturities of bonds experienced adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.6710% and the 30-year yield at 1.8825%, both hitting a one-month high [4] - The issuance of long-term bonds by the Ministry of Finance exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in secondary market yields [4] Economic Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution measures may constrain production and impact employment and income, potentially affecting demand [6] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support economic activity amid weakening fundamentals and low inflation [6] Copper Market - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by Trump is expected to pressure copper prices, with a significant influx of arbitrage funds impacting both London and Shanghai copper prices [7] - Short-term demand for copper is recovering, with a 3.3 percentage point increase in copper rod operating rates to 67.0% [7] - Long-term, strong investment and consumption, along with supportive monetary policy, are expected to elevate copper prices [7] Gold Market - Trump's new tariffs on EU and Canadian goods may bolster gold prices as a safe-haven asset [8] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system [8] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions will show a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the repeated negotiations on reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should focus on the 78000 support level [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely in the range of 2950 - 3250 this week. Mid - term, it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices. For aluminum, the current aluminum price is running at a high level, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected to be under short - term high - level pressure. The main contract should focus on the 20800 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mine end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium - to - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, but the market sentiment is currently stable. The nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 118000 - 126000 [10]. Tin - In the short term, macro disturbances are large. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high prices, and pay attention to the resumption progress in Myanmar and US tariff policies [13]. Stainless Steel - Currently, macro uncertainties increase, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, weakening cost support. The supply - side production cuts are less than expected, and demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the market will be mainly in a volatile state, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the balance surplus may increase recently. The market will be in a state of game between sentiment and fundamentals, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract referring to the range of 60000 - 65000 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.13% to 78720 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.18 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.30% to 20790 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 150.5 yuan/ton to - 1324 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2511 - 2512) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.13% to 22430 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 86.06 yuan/ton to - 1524 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons month - on - month. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 1.29% to 122150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 202 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 0.11% to 904 yuan/nickel point [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31800 tons, a decrease of 3220 tons month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 19157 tons, an increase of 10325 tons month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.64% to 266700 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 848.75 yuan/ton to - 17105.21 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13449 tons, an increase of 3588 tons month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.39% to 12700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2508 - 2509) decreased by 85 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In April, the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons month - on - month. The 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in Indonesia (Qinglong) remained unchanged at 36.00 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% to 63750 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 1460 yuan/ton to - 1600 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, an increase of 6010 tons month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93875 tons, a decrease of 145 tons month - on - month [18].