Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook for copper and aluminum, while emphasizing the potential for rare metals and lithium to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [1][3]. Copper Industry - The copper supply-demand landscape is influenced by ongoing global supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for price increases supported by a global interest rate cut cycle [3][21]. - Domestic copper production is projected to slow down due to tightening copper concentrate supplies and low smelting fees, while demand from the renewable energy sector and AI electronics is expected to continue rising [3][50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's refined copper production reached 889.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, driven by significant contributions from recycled copper and improved smelting technology [3][28]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by rigid supply constraints and differentiated demand, with prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [3][55]. - Domestic aluminum production is supported by stable bauxite supply and increasing imports, with a notable rise in imported bauxite by 33.6% year-on-year [3][59]. - The report indicates that the aluminum price is likely to maintain an upward trajectory due to the ongoing economic recovery and the anticipated demand from various sectors [3][55]. Strategic Metals - The rare earth supply is expected to stabilize, but demand needs to be boosted, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - Tungsten supply is projected to remain tight due to resource depletion and environmental regulations, while demand is stable, driven by applications in hard alloys and emerging technologies [3][4]. - Lithium production is set to benefit from the rapid expansion of energy storage and solid-state battery technologies, with a significant increase in demand anticipated [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility [3][5]. - The report highlights that gold's monetary attributes are likely to be reinforced amid geopolitical tensions and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Western Mining (601168) for industrial metals, while recommending Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) for small metals and new materials [6]. - For energy metals, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) are highlighted as key players to watch [6]. - In the precious metals sector, Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) are recommended due to their potential for price appreciation [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [3] Core Views - The report highlights ongoing speculation regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on gold and copper markets. The expectation for a December rate cut remains uncertain, influenced by mixed employment data and the lack of CPI data due to government shutdowns. Despite fluctuations in market expectations, historical trends suggest that even if a rate cut does not occur, it will not alter the long-term direction for gold [10][11] - The impact of Russia's gold sales is deemed limited, as the country has significantly reduced its gold purchases in 2023 and is primarily selling gold domestically due to sanctions on international transactions. This is expected to have minimal effect on the global market [10] - Copper prices show resilience, remaining stable within the range of $10,600 to $11,000 per ton, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals. Recent production guidance from Freeport has been adjusted downward, indicating a tighter supply outlook for 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Gold Market - The ongoing debate over interest rate cuts is affecting gold prices, with December cut probabilities fluctuating between 30% and 70%. The report suggests that the direction for gold remains positive regardless of short-term rate cut outcomes [10] - Russia's gold reserves are over 2,300 tons, but their recent sales are not expected to significantly impact international gold prices due to domestic selling constraints [10] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strong resilience, not following broader market declines. The report notes a recent increase in the operating rate of copper rod production, indicating robust demand [11] - Freeport's production guidance for copper has been revised downwards, suggesting a tighter supply situation moving forward [11] - The report anticipates further upward adjustments in earnings expectations for copper mining stocks due to ongoing fiscal expansion and liquidity conditions [11] Market Performance - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals index has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 6.75% recently. Specific sectors such as lithium and gold have shown varying performance, with lithium stocks performing relatively better [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and silver is likely to see a decline catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. Short - term gold and silver have "bottom - fishing" value, and the new high of silver within the year can still be anticipated [6]. - The price of copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the long - term logic of price increase driven by consumption still exists. It is advisable to go long on dips in the long run, and opportunities for internal - external reverse arbitrage can be sought [79][84]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.04%, and London silver fell 5.97%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83.1, the 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.82%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 100.15 [6]. Price Analysis - Silver's sharp decline this week was mainly affected by the fall in overseas risk appetite and the decline in equities. It is difficult for silver to break through the previous high, and the callback exceeded expectations. The risk is relatively controllable [6]. - The gold - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. Transaction - related Data - Overseas: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 was 1.479 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 22.4 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 was 0.329 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.285 dollars per ounce [12][15]. - Domestic: The gold futures - spot spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19][21][25][29]. - Delivery cost: The cost of long - term and short - term cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for gold and silver was calculated, and the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, while that for silver was mainly paid by shorts to longs [32][33][34][35][36]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. Gold futures inventory remained unchanged, silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the gold exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [38][40][43]. - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly. The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 8.36 tons, and the SLV silver ETF inventory increased by 39.5 tons [45][51][53]. Copper Market Performance - The price of copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a price range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan per ton [79]. Fundamental Analysis - Macro: There is strong uncertainty in the macro - environment. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and the US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed [84]. - Supply: The logic of tight raw material supply is continuously weakening. Copper concentrate imports are increasing, and scrap copper imports and domestic production are also rising. Domestic refined copper production remains at a high level [84]. - Demand: High copper prices suppress consumption in the short term, but the long - term consumption recovery logic is strong, driven by factors such as AI data centers, energy storage, and new energy vehicles [84]. - Inventory: Global total inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Nearly 45% of global visible inventory is COMEX warrant inventory, and copper inventory outside the US is relatively low [84]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, LME, and COMEX copper all declined. The LME copper price volatility was around 7.5%, and the SHFE copper volatility was around 13% [88]. - Term spread: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium weakened [90][92]. - Position: COMEX copper positions increased, while LME and SHFE positions decreased. The LME commercial short net positions increased [93][99]. - Spot premium: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium remained stable [103][105]. - Inventory: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory [106].

- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals industry, indicating an upward cycle despite liquidity disturbances [2][3]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts and changing market sentiment towards AI narratives have led to fluctuations in base metal prices. However, the fundamentals for energy metals remain strong, with prices trending upwards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Market sentiment is affected by volatility in risk assets and central banks reducing gold reserves. The Federal Reserve's mixed economic assessments and fluctuating expectations for a December rate cut dominate the market [5][7]. - Gold prices as of November 21: SHFE gold decreased by 3.36% to 926.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold fell by 0.77% to 4062.80 USD/oz [7][25]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces as of the end of October, marking 12 consecutive months of growth [7]. 2. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure due to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. As of November 21, SHFE copper decreased by 1.43% to 85,660 CNY/ton, and LME copper fell by 0.69% to 10,777.5 USD/ton [10][22]. - The supply side is impacted by an accident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand remains strong, particularly from AI data centers and power grids [10][22]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to macroeconomic expectations. As of November 21, SHFE aluminum decreased by 2.29% to 21,340 CNY/ton, and LME aluminum fell by 2.54% to 2,786 USD/ton [9][22]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, while overseas supply concerns persist. The processing operating rate is steady at 62% [9][22]. 4. Energy Metals - The lithium sector shows strong demand, with lithium prices trending upwards. As of last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,100 tons, up by 585 tons, while inventory decreased by 2,052 tons [11]. - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while demand from the downstream sector is cautious [11]. 5. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have slightly increased before retreating, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. As of November 21, prices were 549,000 CNY/ton for praseodymium and neodymium, and 1,485,000 CNY/ton for dysprosium [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, due to the unclear prospect of a December interest rate cut, the prices will likely continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range [3]. - **Copper**: The intraday procurement and sales sentiment has increased, and the spot price has risen while the premium has weakened. The copper price faces pressure at 86,500 - 86,600. Given the weak impact of the unemployment data on the December interest rate cut expectation and the dollar index remaining above 100, the copper price will likely fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum will maintain a moderately strong long - term trend. In the short - term, weak fundamentals and a lower probability of a December interest rate cut have led to profit - taking by previous funds. It will likely consolidate with an overall higher price center. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental restrictions and short - covering, but it is still in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics to Shanghai aluminum and strong downside support [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of an interest rate cut has cooled. In terms of fundamentals, the smelting end is competing for ore, resulting in a significant decline in November TC. The smelting end's willingness to reduce or halt production has increased in November. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Currently, there are large differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [59]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has continued to decline, breaking below 900 and still falling due to weak downstream demand. Under the situation of a significant collapse in costs, the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel spot has high shipment pressure, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. Attention should be paid to the demand trend and Indonesian policy support expectations [75]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, there is some resumption of production in Yunnan, but due to the lower - than - expected resumption of production in Wa State, the import of concentrate has sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. In the short - term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: This week, lithium carbonate production and inventory showed the characteristic of "increasing production and reducing inventory", but the inventory reduction process has significantly slowed down. High prices have weakened downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, suppressing price increases. Technically, the futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward momentum and significant callback risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, considering supply - demand and technical factors, the price has strong downside support and limited downward space. For polysilicon, policy - driven short - term stimulation coexists with a weak fundamental situation, and the price increase is limited due to insufficient demand support [115]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend; short - term fluctuation and adjustment with possible range narrowing [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including price trends, spreads, and relationships with other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9][12]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai copper main contract is at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.55% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,815 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.72% [23]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are given. The current copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 82.21% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are provided. The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a daily decline of 9.44% [33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term with a higher price center; alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract is at 21,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.88% [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic aluminum spot prices, premiums, and spreads are presented. For example, the East China aluminum price is at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 9.09% [46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 69,283 tons, with a daily decline of 0.18% [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Uncertainty exists due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and supply - side issues. Observe export and macro factors and the bottom space at the end of the month [59]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai zinc main contract is at 22,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07% [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the SMM 0 zinc average price is at 22,440 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [68]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 72,897 tons, with a daily decline of 1.05% [72]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Outlook**: Ferronickel prices are falling, and the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel has high shipment pressure [75]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai and London nickel and stainless steel futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract is at 114,050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1% [76]. - **Downstream Data**: Data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented, such as the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the profit margin of China's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [80][83]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai tin main contract is at 290,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.44% [89]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot prices are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is at 291,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07% [93]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London tin warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts are 5,906 tons, with a daily decline of 1.42% [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: The "increasing production and reducing inventory" process has slowed down. High prices have suppressed downstream replenishment willingness. The futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward space [104]. - **Futures Data**: The latest closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided, along with data on spreads between different contracts [105][107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot prices are presented, such as the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price at 92,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate exchange inventory, including warehouse receipts, social inventory, smelter inventory, and downstream inventory, are provided [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon has strong downside support and limited downward space. Polysilicon has limited upside space due to weak fundamentals [115]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Data**: The latest prices of various industrial silicon products in different regions and their basis data are provided. For example, the East China 553 industrial silicon is at 9,550 yuan/ton [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. For example, the industrial silicon main contract is at 8,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27% [117]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Data**: Price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory and production data of the industry chain, are presented [125][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The short - term spot demand supports copper prices, but the macro - face has a large impact. With the continued selling of US stocks, rising Japanese bond yields, and upcoming important US data, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper stopped falling. The selling of US stocks continued, but the A - share market stopped falling during the day, and market risk - aversion sentiment cooled. The spot price rose 110 to 86,115, and the spot premium rose 15 to 85. The decline of copper prices to 86,000 stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. The LME0 - 3 contango structure expanded to 35, and the domestic spot import loss was around 270. With the narrowing of the import loss, the supply of imported goods is expected to increase [10] Group 5: Industry News - From January to September 2025, the production of major global copper enterprises showed differentiation. BHP's cumulative production in the first three quarters was 1.0509 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; Rio Tinto's copper mine production was 0.5377 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.03%; MMG's production was 0.3455 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.84%. Freeport - McMoRan's production decreased by 8.8% year - on - year, and Glencore's production decreased by 23.54% year - on - year. Most companies maintained their annual production guidance, but Codelco lowered its annual target from 1.34 - 1.37 million tons to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons due to a safety accident [11] - Zhejiang Kefei Technology Co., Ltd. signed an EPC contract for the SHOMBERWA 60kt/a copper smelting and chemical project with LEDYA Group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project will process 2 million tons of high - grade copper - cobalt sulfide ore annually, with a planned annual production of 60,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supporting blister copper and sulfuric acid production systems will be built in two phases, ultimately reaching an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of blister copper (Cu98%) and 180,000 tons of industrial sulfuric acid (98% H₂SO₄), with expansion space reserved [11][12] - Freeport - McMoRan plans to restart the production of the Grasberg copper - gold mine in Indonesia by July next year. The mine was shut down in September this year due to a fatal accident. It is expected that the total production of copper and gold of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, about 1 billion pounds of copper and 90 ounces of gold, and production is expected to increase from 2026 to 2027 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][12]. Core Insights - Demand for copper and aluminum is showing signs of improvement, with a focus on the recovery in the antimony market [1]. - The report highlights a slight recovery in downstream demand for copper, with LME copper prices increasing by 1.2% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices rose by 1.1% [4]. - Aluminum demand is supported by the automotive and cable sectors, with LME aluminum prices decreasing by 0.3% and SHFE aluminum prices increasing by 1.0% [4]. - The gold market is influenced by hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, with SHFE gold prices rising by 3.5% and COMEX gold prices increasing by 1.9% [4]. - The report notes a recovery in antimony prices and a tight supply-demand situation for tungsten, with tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 1.8% [4]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are frequent, but there is a slight recovery in downstream demand. The copper processing rate is at 66.88%, up by 4.91 percentage points week-on-week [4]. - October's copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month-on-month, but year-on-year it increased by 9.63% [4]. Aluminum Sector - The aluminum processing rate is at 62.0%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4 percentage points. The demand is bolstered by the sales of new energy vehicles, which reached approximately 1.4 million units in October, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [4]. Gold Sector - Investment demand for gold is slightly recovering, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings increasing by 1.9 tons week-on-week [4]. Minor Metals Sector - Antimony prices are showing signs of recovery, while tungsten supply remains tight. The report emphasizes the need to monitor export licensing and ongoing demand [4]. Steel Sector - The West Manganese project has officially commenced production, which is expected to gradually improve steel mill profitability. The report notes a decrease in total inventory of steel products by 26.23 million tons week-on-week [5].