Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, the ChiNext Index rising by 49.57%, the CSI 300 increasing by 17.66%, the CSI 500 up by 30.39%, and the STAR 50 gaining 35.92% [1] - The most notable performance was in precious metals, with gold and silver entering a historic bull market, leading all asset classes. London spot gold rose by 64.56% throughout the year, nearing $4600 per ounce, while London spot silver surged by 147.79% [1] Precious Metals and Base Metals Cycle - Historical patterns indicate that after gold and silver, base metals like copper and aluminum may enter a super cycle. The sequence of price increases typically follows: gold, silver, copper, aluminum, oil, gas, and agricultural products [2] - By the end of 2025, gold had increased over 60%, closing around $4320 per ounce, while silver prices saw significant increases, particularly in December, breaking through key price levels [2] - International investment banks are bullish on copper and aluminum for 2026, citing a lack of large mining projects coming online and the decline of older mines. Demand is also expected to rise from sectors like AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and the photovoltaic industry [2] Investment Products in Base Metals - Investment products related to base metals can be categorized into two main types: those that include stocks or ETFs related to base metals and public mutual funds focused on base metals. Unlike precious metals, these products do not directly invest in physical metals [3] - Base metal index funds can be further divided into those tracking stock indices and those tracking futures indices. Examples include the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" and "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF," which invest in stocks of companies related to gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and rare metals [4] Performance of Base Metal Funds - Recent performance data for base metal ETFs shows significant gains, with the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 98.20%, "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 82.96%, and others also showing strong returns [6] - Some bank wealth management products also allocate a portion of their holdings to precious and base metals to enhance returns, although these products carry higher risks compared to pure bond products [8] Practical Investment Tips - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when investing in precious and base metals. For those with a preference for stability, bank wealth management products may be suitable, while those with higher risk tolerance might explore mining stocks and related funds [9] - In the context of base metals, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and consider the volatility of silver, platinum, and palladium. It is recommended to select products that hold ETFs related to gold and base metals for more stable investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting investor interest in specific sectors such as power equipment, communication devices, and gaming [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - TBEA (特变电工) saw a capital inflow of 1.846 billion, with a price increase of 10.01% [2] - Haige Communication (海格通信) experienced a capital inflow of 1.661 billion, with a price increase of 10% [2] - ZQ Game (掌趣科技) had a capital inflow of 0.791 billion, with a notable price increase of 14.91% [2] - Yonyou Network (用友网络) attracted 0.768 billion in capital, with a price increase of 7.87% [2] - Shanghai Construction (上海建工) received 0.603 billion, with a price increase of 10.14% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The power equipment sector, represented by TBEA, shows strong investor confidence with significant capital inflows [2] - The communication device sector, including Haige Communication and Lian Te Technology (联特科技), also reflects positive investor sentiment [2][3] - The gaming industry, represented by ZQ Game and Century Huaman (世纪华通), demonstrates robust growth potential with substantial capital inflows [2][3] - The education sector, represented by Zhonggong Education (中公教育), shows a healthy capital inflow of 0.508 billion, indicating investor interest [2] - The energy metal sector, represented by Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) and Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业), continues to attract investment, reflecting ongoing demand in the market [2][3]

消息面上，中国有色矿业公告，谦比希东南矿体主、副井于2025年12月完成修复工作，修复效果符合预 期，该矿山已于2026年1月1日正式复产。2026年，公司预计综合铜产量约48.4万吨，其中阴极铜约13.4 万吨，粗铜/阳极铜约35万吨。 智通财经APP获悉，中国有色矿业(01258)尾盘涨近5%，截至发稿，涨4.83%，报15.63港元，成交额3.08 亿港元。 值得注意的是，中国有色矿业上月发布公告称，拟进一步收购SM Minerals公司55%的股份，对应股份 为6.47万股，交易对价为8900万美元。此次收购完成后，该公司将合计持有SM Minerals 70%股份。该 公司是一间于哈萨克斯坦注册成立的公司，主要从事铜的开采和富集，其中本卡拉北矿区拥有约150万 吨铜资源。 ...

Group 1 - The core market performance shows that 29 out of 31 primary industries received net financing inflows, with the computer industry leading in net inflow amounts [1] - Over two thousand stocks experienced net financing inflows, with more than a hundred stocks having net inflows exceeding 100 million, and 22 stocks surpassing 300 million in net inflows [1] Group 2 - The determination of market highs and lows is primarily influenced by the trading intentions of institutional investors, which can be assessed through actual trading behaviors [6] - Quantitative data can reveal the true participation levels of institutional investors, helping to avoid misjudgments based solely on price movements [6][15] - The analysis of trading behavior through quantitative data can clarify that apparent price rebounds may not be supported by institutional participation, indicating that perceived lows may not be genuine [12][15] Group 3 - The use of quantitative big data allows for a more objective understanding of market conditions, helping to establish a rational perspective and avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading [15]

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

再推【钼】：海外军备或大幅扩张，22 年行情有望复现 20260112 摘要 钼价受供需关系影响显著，近期虽因南美进口矿超预期增加及钢厂盈利 走弱而下跌，但 11 月出口恢复理性，库存仍处低位，价格已回升至 4,200 元/吨。 2026 年前 11 个月，国内钼产量小幅增长，进口量大幅增加 93%，表 观消费增长 6%，需求旺盛与钢招量增长一致，验证了去库逻辑，支撑 钼均价持续上涨。 高端不锈钢是钼需求的主要构成，占比 50%，其次是品种钢和军用特钢。 油气领域资本开支减少对高端不锈钢消费有影响，但整体钢产量仍增长， 品种钢和军用特钢订单旺盛。 全球钼供应增速预计在 26-27 年较低（2-3%），而需求增速更强（4- 5%），叠加当前低库存，未来两到三年内钼价具备较强的上涨确定性。 钨与钼在军用领域存在替代或孪生关系，钨价创新高后，部分需求可能 转向成本相对较低的钼。美国国防开支增加也将拉动对钼的需求。 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点推荐木板块？ 目前木价已经回到了应有的位置，且美国总统特朗普宣布 2027 年国防开支将 达到 1.5 万亿美元，这一消息预示着海外军费预期大幅提升。钼本身的供需缺 口在 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce, driven by liquidity easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a potential continuation of the bull market in the metals sector [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of January 12, COMEX gold reached a historic high of over $4600 per ounce, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the deepening Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and rising geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The ongoing demand for gold from global central banks remains robust, contributing to the upward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints in Base Metals - Key base metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel are facing supply challenges, which are expected to support price increases. Recent strikes and production halts in major mining operations have exacerbated supply issues [3][4]. - Specific incidents include a strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and indefinite shutdowns at the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique, indicating significant supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Mining ETFs - The mining ETF (561330) has shown a remarkable performance, with a net inflow of nearly 600 million yuan over ten consecutive days, reflecting strong investor interest [1][4]. - The mining ETF is positioned to outperform due to a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 55.82% of the index, compared to 47.93% in the broader base metals index [4][7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and the favorable conditions of a rate cut cycle, which historically leads to price increases [12]. - The aluminum sector is constrained by production limits and strong demand from new energy sectors, suggesting sustained high prices [12]. - Lithium demand is projected to rise due to energy storage needs, with a potential supply-demand balance expected by 2026 [13]. - The rare earth sector may see profit elasticity and valuation improvements as China eases export restrictions, highlighting its strategic importance in global markets [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility with a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly driven by the surge in lithium carbonate futures and geopolitical tensions supporting gold prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant increase, rising over 2.8% and attracting more than 730 million yuan in capital inflow, totaling over 300 million yuan in the last two days [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector showed varied performance, with Zijin Mining up 3.89%, Ganfeng Lithium soaring 8.71%, and Shandong Gold increasing by 5.49% [2][7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous sector is currently influenced by multiple factors including frequent macroeconomic disturbances, rigid supply-side conditions, and new demand-side dynamics [5]. - Lithium, as an energy metal, is expected to benefit from export tax adjustments, potentially leading to increased battery production and tighter supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate [5][8]. - Gold prices are supported by rising geopolitical tensions and weak employment data, with expectations for prices to remain above $4,500 per ounce [5][9]. - Copper prices are driven by structural supply concerns and regional mismatches, with expectations for continued price increases due to a projected supply gap of over 100,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a comprehensive investment vehicle covering various metal sectors, with a high concentration of strategic assets [11]. - The ETF's index shows a leading concentration in copper and gold, with a copper content of 34% and gold content of 12%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing non-ferrous market cycle [11][13]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating a strong investment case [13].

Group 1 - A total of 11 companies were investigated by funds on January 12, with a focus on Xingfa Group, Jintian Co., and Tianlu Technology [1] - Among the companies surveyed, Xingfa Group received the most attention with 18 funds participating, while both Jintian Co. and Tianlu Technology had 7 funds each [1] - The surveyed companies included 6 from the Shenzhen Main Board, 2 from the ChiNext Board, and 3 from the Shanghai Main Board, covering 7 different industries [1] Group 2 - The electronic industry had the highest representation with 3 companies, followed by home appliances and basic chemicals, each with 2 companies [1] - Among the surveyed companies, 2 had a total market capitalization exceeding 50 billion yuan, with one exceeding 100 billion yuan, while 5 companies had a market capitalization below 10 billion yuan [1] - In terms of market performance, 10 out of the surveyed stocks increased in value over the past 5 days, with Liou Co., Newcap, and Tianlu Technology showing the highest gains of 32.42%, 21.60%, and 16.17% respectively [1] Group 3 - In terms of net capital inflow over the past 5 days, 5 stocks saw positive inflows, with Liou Co. leading at 64.48 million yuan [2] - The only company to release an annual performance forecast among the surveyed was Whirlpool, expecting a net profit of 505 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 150% [2] - The detailed list of surveyed companies includes Xingfa Group, Tianlu Technology, Jintian Co., Newcap, Huadian Co., Liou Co., Taihe New Materials, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Changhong Meiling, Yidao Information, and Whirlpool [2]

长江铜业网讯：今日沪铜主力2603合约高开，开盘价报103040元/吨，涨60元。 宏观面上，周一美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，特朗普政府内部现内讧，市场担忧美联 储遭政治干扰。当日美元、美债价格下跌，债券收益率上扬，贵金属金银价格大涨并创盘中历史新高。 中国计划推出一系列财政政策提振需求，助力经济良好开局，利好工业金属。同时，电动汽车普及、数 据中心建设及全球电网升级扩建，正改变全球铜需求格局。尽管"铝代铜"呼声渐起，但铜仍是电网扩 建、可再生能源和电动汽车基础设施的核心。新的需求来源不断涌现，数据中心和人工智能基础设施正 成为铜、铝等金属的主要消费市场。而未来几年，因缺乏新供应，铜供应或短缺，推高铜价。瑞银分 析，受新项目审批受限、生产中断及产量下调影响，2025年矿铜产量增长极低，2026年增长也有限。 基本面方面，目前国内铜精矿加工费持续承压，年初海外供应端干扰再现，矿端脆弱性凸显，为铜价提 供支撑。当前国内冶炼端受冲击有限，12月精炼铜产量环比增7.5万吨，主因检修冶炼厂复产、精废价 差拉大致废产阳极铜产量增加、原料补充等。国内光伏出口退税全面取消，抢出口预期拉动金属短期需 求，带动铜价 ...