Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment has shown marginal convergence, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 16,550 billion yuan through open market operations, resulting in a total net withdrawal of 5,550 billion yuan for the week [7][8] - Short-term interest rates have decreased, while long-term interest rates have increased, leading to a widening of the yield spread [7][8] - The overall structure of equity fund supply has shown significant differentiation, with a notable decline in equity fund issuance and a record high in margin financing balance, which has surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan [2][10] Group 2 - The financing net inflow has been concentrated in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, while the food and beverage and building materials sectors have experienced net outflows [10][14] - The stock ETF has seen a net outflow of 1.81 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's net inflow of 354.41 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10][12] - The overall pressure on the stock market's funding demand has eased, with equity financing dropping to 43.85 billion yuan, and the scale of restricted stock unlocks decreasing to 1,650.32 billion yuan [13][15] Group 3 - The IPO issuance for the week amounted to 15.55 billion yuan, down from 33.01 billion yuan the previous week, indicating a slowdown in new equity offerings [15][16] - The scale of directed placements has significantly decreased to 28.3 billion yuan from 172.08 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in capital raising activities [15][16] - The net reduction in industrial capital has also decreased to 126.23 billion yuan from 146.61 billion yuan, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure from major shareholders [15][23]

Stock Market Overview - In December, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was implemented as expected, leading to fluctuations in future rate cut expectations, while the Nasdaq index experienced volatility [1] - The A-share market showed overall fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 11 consecutive gains by the end of the month, driven by a positive tone from the Central Economic Work Conference and a declining US dollar index [1] - The Wind All A index recorded a +3.3% increase for the month, with 60% of the Shenwan first-level industries rising, particularly strong performances in defense and military (+17.22%) and non-ferrous metals (+13.68%) [1] Bond Market Overview - The bond market continued to experience wide fluctuations in December, with increased yield volatility and a steeper curve [2] - Despite relatively ample liquidity and the central bank's resumption of bond purchases providing some support, concerns over long-term bond supply and other factors kept the market in a weak oscillation pattern [2] - The 10-year government bond yield ended the month at 1.85%, reflecting an N-shaped trend throughout December [2] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market showed a bullish atmosphere in December, with precious metals and non-ferrous sectors being the strongest performers [3] - Gold prices fluctuated, with London gold closing at $4318.25 per ounce, up 2.36% from the previous month, while copper prices also saw significant increases [3] - The oil market experienced a downward trend, with Brent crude oil closing at $60.91 per barrel, down 2.26% for the month [3] Macroeconomic Performance - In November, China's exports demonstrated strong resilience, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in machinery and high-tech product exports [5] - However, domestic consumption remained weak, with retail sales growth slowing to 0.3% year-on-year, indicating structural constraints on internal demand [5] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with real estate investment adjustments dragging down overall figures, highlighting the challenges in achieving self-sustaining growth [5] Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on addressing the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" [9] - The strategic shift will prioritize investment in human capital and social welfare, aiming to enhance income levels and consumer demand [9] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more active stance, with a nominal deficit rate targeted around 4.0%, while monetary policy will shift focus from total volume to price stability [10][11] Asset Allocation Analysis - In December, net buying in the stock market rebounded to over 2.5 trillion yuan, with significant inflows into equity ETFs [14] - The manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations by companies [15] - Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to experience structural trends, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate sustainable performance and profitability [16]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 铜：现货走强，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 103,800 | 2.36% | 103320 | -0.46% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,172 | 1.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 562,942 | -224,328 | 694,612 | 12,971 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 35,741 | 8,674 | 325,000 | -446 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 116,622 | 5,406 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 137,225 | -1,750 | 16.09% | -0.91 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic copper and aluminum futures prices continue to rise, with over 10% increase in the past month, driven by strong demand expectations from the largest consumer and the growth of data centers for artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, international copper futures rose by 1.63%, closing at $13,209.5 per ton, nearing record highs [1] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) has attracted significant capital inflows, with over 1 billion yuan net inflow on January 12 alone, totaling 18.8 billion yuan over the past five trading days and 54 billion yuan over the last 60 days [1][3] Group 2: ETF Details - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, covering leading companies in copper, aluminum, and rare earths [4] - The ETF has seen its scale grow rapidly, surpassing 10 billion yuan on January 6 and exceeding 12 billion yuan by January 12 [3] Group 3: Demand and Supply Outlook - The current loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, combined with strong demand and limited supply, is expected to support the ongoing nonferrous metal bull market [4] - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index consists of 30 leading companies in the industrial nonferrous metal sector, with copper (34.4%), aluminum (21.8%), and rare earths (13.6%) being the top three metals, accounting for nearly 70% of the index [6]

两融数据显示，该股最新（1月12日）两融余额为10.96亿元，其中，融资余额为10.89亿元，近10日增加 1.01亿元，环比增长10.20%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入58.18亿元，同比下降0.60%，实现净利润 2.82亿元，同比下降17.19%，基本每股收益为0.2702元，加权平均净资产收益率5.12%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 安泰科技股价创出历史新高，截至9:35，该股上涨4.47%，股价报28.95元，成交量4018.80万股，成交金 额11.69亿元，换手率3.89%，该股最新A股总市值达304.13亿元，该股A股流通市值299.27亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，安泰科技所属的有色金属行业，目前整体跌幅为0.22%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有40只，涨幅居前的有铂科新材、安泰科技、湖南白银等，涨幅分别为4.72%、4.47%、3.82%。 股价下跌的有101只，跌幅居前的有天力复合、银邦股份、西部材料等，跌幅分别为11.84%、10.21%、 9.98%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2][4] - Silver: Rapid upward movement [2][4] - Copper: Strong spot market supports prices [2][7] - Zinc: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [2][10] - Lead: Decrease in LME inventory supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Oscillating upwards [2][16] - Aluminum: Bullish trend [2][23] - Alumina: Look for selling opportunities at high prices [2][23] - Cast aluminum alloy: Stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2][23] - Platinum: Narrow-range oscillation [2][25] - Palladium: Range-bound oscillation [2][25] - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a tug-of-war, with wide-range oscillation [2][29] - Stainless steel: Ferronickel lifts the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][30] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Data**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 1,026.28 with a daily increase of 1.97%, and its night - session closing price was 1008.54 with a 0.80% increase. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4608.80 with a 2.00% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Gold 2602 had a trading volume of 238,327, a change of 77,139 from the previous day, and an open interest of 116,450, a change of - 2,836 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory was 97,653 kg, unchanged from the previous day. Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 36,311,918, a decrease of 75,458 [4]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The University of Michigan's January consumer confidence preliminary reading reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran again and was reported to have listened to military strike plans. There were reports of Trump ordering the US military to plan an "invasion" of Greenland [4][6]. Silver - **Price Data**: Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 20957 with a daily increase of 11.92%, and its night - session closing price was 19438.00 with a 6.19% increase. Comex Silver 2602 closed at 85.155 with a 6.72% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Silver 2602 had a trading volume of 166,150, a decrease of 5,862 from the previous day, and an open interest of 80,173, a decrease of 6,635 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Silver inventory was 649,643 kg, an increase of 29381. Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 439,740,503, a decrease of 2,738,911 [4]. Copper - **Price Data**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 103,800 with a 2.36% increase, and its night - session closing price was 103320 with a - 0.46% change. LME Copper 3M electronic trading closed at 13,172 with a 1.59% increase [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Copper Index had a trading volume of 562,942, a decrease of 224,328 from the previous day, and an open interest of 694,612, an increase of 12,971. LME Copper 3M electronic trading had a trading volume of 35,741, an increase of 8,674, and an open interest of 325,000, a decrease of 446 [7]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 116,622, an increase of 5,406. LME Copper inventory was 137,225, a decrease of 1,750 [7]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Fed Chair candidate Hassett questioned Fed overspending. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Codelco's 2025 copper production was 1.332 million tons, slightly higher than 2024. By 2040, global copper demand is expected to surge, driven by AI and defense [7][9]. Zinc - **Price Data**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 24175 with a 0.86% increase. LME Zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 3149 with a 0.57% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract had a trading volume of 97940, a decrease of 45287 from the previous day, and an open interest of 101478, an increase of 24845. LME Zinc had a trading volume of 11232, a decrease of 3977, and an open interest of 233254, a decrease of 397 [10]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 35341, a decrease of 3533. LME Zinc inventory was 106800, a decrease of 650 [10]. - **News**: The US Department of Justice launched a "criminal investigation" into Fed Chair Powell. Hassett questioned Fed overspending [10][11]. Lead - **Price Data**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17475 with a 0.46% increase. LME Lead 3M electronic trading closed at 2046.5 with a 1.49% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Lead's main contract had a trading volume of 35542, a decrease of 5669 from the previous day, and an open interest of 63535, an increase of 5171. LME Lead had a trading volume of 6649, a decrease of 4916, and an open interest of 175319, a decrease of 3306 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 16489, an increase of 301. LME Lead inventory was 221450, a decrease of 1275 [14]. - **News**: Hassett questioned Fed overspending. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran [14]. Tin - **Price Data**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 376,920 with a 6.92% increase, and its night - session closing price was 383,410 with a 5.24% increase. LME Tin 3M electronic trading closed at 48,200 with a 5.47% increase [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Tin's main contract had a trading volume of 282,983, an increase of 29,897 from the previous day, and an open interest of 50,635, an increase of 9,898. LME Tin 3M electronic trading had a trading volume of 1,114, an increase of 526, and an open interest of 23,240, an increase of 26 [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,333, a decrease of 96. LME Tin inventory was 5,905, an increase of 490 [17]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Apple will use Google Gemini to power its AI - enabled Siri. The US Department of Justice launched a "criminal investigation" into the Fed Chair. The China - EU electric vehicle case reached a "soft landing" [17][18][19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Data**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 24650, with a night - session closing price of 24630. LME Aluminum 3M closed at 3191. Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2866, with a night - session closing price of 2821. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closed at 23340, with a night - session closing price of 23445 [23]. - **Inventory and Market News**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 740,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons. LME Aluminum inventory was 495,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran and expressed concerns about the Supreme Court's tariff ruling [23][24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 622.80 with a 3.83% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 505.10 with a 1.21% increase [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Platinum trading volume was 40,554 kg, a decrease of 14,461 from the previous day, and its open interest was 39,301, a decrease of 289. Shanghai Palladium trading volume was 24.178 kg, a decrease of 16,235, and its open interest was 15,263, an increase of 239 [25]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX Platinum inventory (in ounces, the day before) was 624,755, a decrease of 260. NYMEX Palladium inventory (in ounces, the day before) was 211,306, unchanged [25]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts. The White House stated that Trump did not instruct the investigation of Powell [25][28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 144,200. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 [30]. - **Trading Volume and Industry News**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract had a trading volume of 1,083,202. The stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 356,984. Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and the government planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula and lower the 2026 nickel ore production target [30][31][33].

Group 1 - On January 12, 29 out of 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index received net financing inflows, with the computer industry leading at a net inflow of 5.593 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included electronics, defense and military, non-ferrous metals, media, electric equipment, non-bank financials, telecommunications, and machinery [1] Group 2 - A total of 2,310 stocks received net financing inflows on January 12, with 142 stocks having net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - Among these, 22 stocks had net inflows over 300 million yuan, with BlueFocus leading at a net inflow of 1.311 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows included China Ping An, Kunlun Wanwei, Goldwind Technology, Lens Technology, Northern Rare Earth, Haige Communications, Runze Technology, and CATL [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current analysis focuses on the commodities market, particularly oil, and its cyclical behavior driven by the Kondratiev wave theory, indicating a supercycle lasting approximately four years due to the expansion of dollar credit cracks [1][3][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Commodity Supercycle**: The current supercycle is characterized by a rotation in commodity prices: gold, industrial metals, oil, and finally agricultural products. This cycle is expected to continue until around 2026, particularly influenced by geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3][6]. - **Oil Price Signals**: The reversal of oil prices is anticipated to be signaled by three core indicators: 1. Major oil-producing countries expressing willingness to negotiate production cuts. 2. Effective execution of joint production cuts by these countries. 3. Continuous strengthening of the production cut agreements in terms of extent and duration. The emergence of the third signal is expected to lead to a rapid increase in oil prices [4][10]. - **Strategic Oil Reserves**: Global strategic oil inventories have reached historical lows, which, combined with a decade-long contraction in oil capital expenditures, supports the potential for future oil price increases [4][7]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The current international oil price has fallen below $60, nearing the breakeven point for the U.S. shale gas industry, suggesting limited downside risk and significant upside potential for investments in the petrochemical sector [2][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Kondratiev Wave Characteristics**: The supercycle during the Kondratiev depression phase is primarily driven by currency credit issues rather than demand. Since 2016, the global demand for the dollar has decreased, enhancing the reserve value of commodities, especially gold [6]. - **Historical Context**: Historical geopolitical events have shown that actions against Russia often lead to significant drops in oil prices, as seen in 1986 and 2014. The current situation reflects similar dynamics following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Future Economic Predictions**: For 2026, it is predicted that China's economy will enter a phase of prosperity, with the A-share market likely to reach new highs. Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, new consumption, high-end manufacturing, and domestic computing chains with competitive advantages [12]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a complex interplay of geopolitical factors, market dynamics, and historical patterns that shape the commodities market, particularly oil. Investors are advised to consider these elements when making strategic decisions in the coming years.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the market may exhibit characteristics of a bottom lift and active main lines in the first quarter and beyond, with China's economy expected to enter a recovery phase by 2026 under a policy framework of "stabilizing growth" and "strengthening technology" [1] - The transition from old to new driving forces is showing initial effectiveness, with a number of high-tech listed companies moving from "policy-driven" to "performance verification," providing necessary conditions for medium to long-term capital participation and continuous pricing [1] - The technology sector is anticipated to become a long-term focus for capital markets, driven by increasing market confidence and capital inflow, with long-term funds supporting the market and maintaining active trading under policy promotion [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will see China's economy enter a transformation phase dominated by new productive forces, with investment focusing on four main lines: technology self-reliance, green transition, silver economy driven by aging population, and strategic resource layout under development and security [2] - A dual-peak asset allocation strategy is recommended, with defensive investments in high-dividend assets (such as hydropower, telecom operators, and state-owned banks) for stable cash flow, and offensive investments in hard technology growth assets (like semiconductor equipment, industrial software, and humanoid robots) to capture excess returns from domestic substitution and industrial upgrades [2] Group 3 - There is a sustained optimism regarding investment opportunities in strategic metals characterized by resource scarcity and rigid supply, which often leads to a natural "bullish option" due to high geographical concentration of resources [3] - The demand for strategic metals is expected to benefit from significant changes in industries and national strategic reserves, as they are essential for developing new productive forces, with a new cycle of demand driven by new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence [3] - Global resource supply security is under threat, prompting countries to increase acceptable inventory levels to mitigate potential supply disruption risks, particularly for metals used in the military industry [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the market may exhibit characteristics of a bottom lift and active main lines in the first quarter and beyond, with China's economy expected to enter a recovery phase by 2026 [1] - The macro environment is supported by policies focusing on "stabilizing growth" and "strengthening technology," which will favor technology-related sectors through sustained institutional support and fiscal resources [1] - The transition from old to new driving forces is showing initial effectiveness, with several high-tech listed companies moving from "policy-driven" to "performance verification," providing necessary conditions for medium to long-term capital participation [1] Group 2 - The asset allocation strategy suggested by the company is a dual-peak strategy, focusing on defensive high-dividend assets for stable cash flow and offensive hard technology growth assets to capture excess returns from domestic substitution and industrial upgrades [2] - The report emphasizes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy will enter a transformation phase led by new productive forces, with investment focusing on technology self-reliance, green transition, silver economy due to aging population, and strategic resource layout [2] Group 3 - The company maintains a positive outlook on strategic metal investment opportunities characterized by resource scarcity and supply rigidity, which can create a "bullish option" due to their inherent supply vulnerabilities [3] - Strategic metals are essential for developing new productive forces and are expected to see increased demand due to significant changes in demand structure driven by global technological revolutions [3] - The report highlights that global resource supply security is under threat, prompting countries to increase strategic reserves, particularly for metals used in the military industry [3]