Group 1 - The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing an increase. The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159157) saw its index rise by 0.25%, with a trading volume of 1.72 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 11.69%, leading in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159157) recorded a net subscription of over 1 million units during the trading session, accumulating a net inflow of 424 million yuan over the past two trading days. As of February 9, 2026, the fund's latest scale reached 1.468 billion yuan, setting a new high since its listing and ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159157) covers a wide range of industries including copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, allowing it to better capture the beta market trends across different economic cycles [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that the new Federal Reserve Chair will not quickly advance balance sheet reduction, alleviating market concerns regarding monetary tightening [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has announced plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms [2] - Reports indicate that copper and aluminum supply is tight due to production disruptions and increased demand from AI data centers, while rare earth product prices have significantly risen [2] - The optimization of industrial structure and ongoing green transformation are driving rapid growth in the equipment manufacturing sector, leading to improved profits for industrial enterprises, particularly in the non-ferrous metal industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% in the week from February 2 to February 6, ranking last among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant drop of 17.38%, while industrial metals fell by 9.49% [1][14] - The market is currently in a low-risk environment characterized by "Wash Trading," leading to continued high volatility in precious metals. The report remains optimistic about gold's upward momentum in the context of expansive monetary policies, while silver's performance will depend on changes in physical asset holdings [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 8.51%, underperforming the index by 7.24 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced declines, with precious metals down 17.38%, industrial metals down 9.49%, and energy metals down 3.59% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper decreased, with LME copper at $13,060 per ton (down 0.08%) and SHFE copper at ¥100,100 per ton (down 3.45%). Increased inventories in Shanghai, New York, and London are pressuring prices [2][31][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fell to $3,110 per ton (down 0.81%), and SHFE aluminum prices dropped to ¥23,315 per ton (down 5.07%). The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to further increase inventory levels [3][36][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose slightly to $3,383 per ton (up 0.39%), while SHFE zinc prices fell to ¥24,450 per ton (down 5.36%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [40] - **Tin**: LME tin prices fell to $47,155 per ton (down 6.81%), and SHFE tin prices dropped to ¥357,000 per ton (down 12.71%). Increased supply from traders has led to a more relaxed market [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce (up 1.65%), while SHFE gold closed at ¥1,090.12 per gram (down 6.14%). Despite weak labor market data in the U.S., the market remains in a low-risk environment, supporting gold's potential for further gains [4][50][51] - **Silver**: The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in silver holdings to assess the impact of physical asset shortages on the futures market [4][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% in the week from February 2 to February 6, ranking last among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant drop of 17.38%, while industrial metals fell by 9.49% [1][14] - The market is currently in a low-risk environment characterized by "Wash Trading," with cross-asset sell-offs affecting precious metals, which continue to exhibit high volatility. The report remains optimistic about gold's upward momentum in the context of expansive monetary policies [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming by 7.24 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals declined, with precious metals leading the drop [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper decreased, with LME copper at $13,060 per ton (down 0.08%) and SHFE copper at ¥100,100 per ton (down 3.45%). Increased inventories across major markets are pressuring prices [2][31][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fell to $3,110 per ton (down 0.81%) and SHFE aluminum to ¥23,315 per ton (down 5.07%). The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to further suppress demand [3][36][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices increased slightly to $3,383 per ton (up 0.39%), while SHFE zinc prices fell to ¥24,450 per ton (down 5.36%) [40] - **Tin**: LME tin prices dropped significantly to $47,155 per ton (down 6.81%), with SHFE tin at ¥357,000 per ton (down 12.71%) due to increased market supply [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce (up 1.65%), while SHFE gold was at ¥1,090.12 per gram (down 6.14%). Despite weak labor market data in the U.S., the market remains in a low-risk environment, supporting gold's potential for further gains [4][50][51] - **Silver**: The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in silver positions to assess the impact of physical asset shortages on the futures market [4][51]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices since 2025 is attributed to multiple factors including policy support, industrial transformation, improved liquidity, and restored market confidence, with high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy showing strong performance [2] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund managed by Tao Can has achieved a remarkable return of 473.70% since its inception, with a year-to-date return of 5.07% and a one-year return of 51.37% [5][6] - The fund's strategy focuses on capturing "reform dividends" by investing in sectors benefiting from national reforms, such as state-owned enterprise reform and resource pricing reform [6][14] - The fund's performance is supported by a stable management team and a dual-dimensional approach that enhances risk resistance [4][14] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy employs a "3+3" framework, selecting industries from a top-down perspective while also picking stocks from a bottom-up approach, focusing on business models and competitive landscapes [2] - The fund emphasizes long-term value and adjusts positions flexibly to respond to market changes, which has proven effective during market fluctuations [4][14] - The fund's core investment logic revolves around identifying structural opportunities arising from national policies, avoiding short-term fads [6][14] Group 3: Sector Focus - The fund has prioritized investments in leading companies that achieve scale through mergers and restructuring, which tend to have stronger growth potential [4] - In the new energy sector, the fund focuses on high-growth areas such as upstream materials for electric vehicles and midstream manufacturing, benefiting from technological advancements and demand expansion [18][20] - The fund's holdings include significant investments in companies like Ningde Times, which has seen a stock price increase of 343% during the fund's holding period [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the A-share market, highlighting recent fluctuations in major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext, which experienced declines of -1.33%, -2.68%, and -3.28% respectively during the week [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Volatility**: The A-share market has shown signs of volatility, with major indices declining over the week, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2][3]. 2. **Strong Performance in Specific Sectors**: The food and beverage, as well as textile and apparel sectors, have outperformed others, ranking first and second in terms of weekly gains. Other strong sectors included banking, power equipment, and transportation, while non-ferrous metals and telecommunications lagged behind [2][3]. 3. **Value vs. Growth**: Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks, with the value index declining by 0.53% compared to a 1.99% drop in the growth index. Factors contributing to this performance include dividends, low turnover, low liquidity, and low volatility [2][3]. 4. **Market Sentiment Indicators**: The macroeconomic outlook is cautious, reflected in the macroeconomic expectation difference index. However, the left-side timing indicators suggest a more optimistic view based on valuation levels, market sentiment, and capital flows [3][4]. 5. **Technical Indicators**: The QRS indicator shows a bearish signal for several tracked indices, indicating potential resistance at market tops [3][4]. Additional Important Content 1. **Quantitative Model Performance**: The adaptive rotation model underperformed the industry equal-weight benchmark by 0.2 percentage points, with a recent weekly return of -1.1% compared to -0.8% for the benchmark. However, the model has shown a cumulative return of 29.9% since August 2023, outperforming the benchmark by 4.7% [4]. 2. **Multi-Factor Stock Selection**: The CSI 500 index enhanced strategy outperformed its benchmark by 0.70 percentage points this week, with a cumulative return of 157.70% since January 2019, exceeding the benchmark by 101.33 percentage points [5]. 3. **Active Quantitative Stock Selection**: The growth trend strategy ranked in the top 10% among equity funds this year, despite a weekly return of -3.6%. Since its inception in 2009, it has achieved an annualized return of 30.9% [6]. 4. **Risk Warning**: The models are based on historical data, and there is a potential risk of failure in future predictions [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into market trends, sector performances, and quantitative strategies.

图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price movements, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran talks continue, but core differences remain. The market has reduced concerns about supply disruptions in the short - term, yet geopolitical risks persist. Brent oil prices are highly volatile and contain significant geopolitical risk premiums [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors and tight spot supply in the short - term. However, it may face pressure in the medium - term if geopolitical risks ease. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by increased overseas refinery supply, but European extreme weather may provide support [22] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply pressure is limited in February, and consumption has improved slightly year - on - year. The price trend is mainly affected by crude oil, and the crack spread is expected to remain strong [23] - **Urea**: Urea production is high, and orders are progressing. The market is supported by local agricultural and reserve demand. It will likely oscillate in the short - term and strengthen after the Spring Festival [24] - **Methanol**: Coastal demand for methanol is weak, and port de - stocking is difficult. Domestic production is increasing, and main - producing areas are de - stocking smoothly. The market is affected by geopolitical situations and may gradually de - stock after the Spring Festival [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a stage of sharp oscillation. The market is waiting for US non - farm payrolls and CPI data to assess the prospects of interest rate cuts. Short - term volatility is high, and it is advisable to wait [3] - **Copper**: Copper prices rebounded overnight. The market is concerned about geopolitical risks and long - term strategic value. After the Spring Festival, prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rise based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Inventory performance is weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the support at 23,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: Downstream demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and there is a short - term supply surplus. The rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is weak, but it has support at 24,000 yuan/ton. A short - selling strategy can be considered when TC rebounds [8] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead is at the lower end of the oscillation range. Demand is weak, and cost - side support is emerging. There is strong support at 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded, but market trading was light. Stainless steel inventory increased, and market confidence declined. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [10] - **Tin**: Tin prices continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to the high volatility of the outer market during the Spring Festival. The focus is on post - holiday supply and demand changes [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is in a low - level oscillation. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and there may be spot selling. The futures price has crashed, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market has light trading, and the price is expected to oscillate. The spot fundamentals lack driving forces, and it is advisable to wait and see [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices are under pressure, affected by the weak performance of polysilicon futures and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction targets. Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is oscillating strongly. Supply is expected to recover after the hurricane, and demand is weak. The overall supply surplus pressure is large, and prices are under short - term pressure [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are oscillating. Supply is in surplus, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [19][20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans rose, but domestic soybean meal futures did not follow. Short - term risks should be noted. Rapeseed meal may oscillate weakly [36] - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil are in a state of position - reduction oscillation. US soybean oil may be strong, and attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture report. Rapeseed oil is affected by Canadian菜籽 import policies [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: Soybean No. 1 rose strongly with increased positions. Policy - related soybean auctions and strong external soybean prices have a positive impact [38] - **Corn**: The national corn sales progress is 61%. Spot prices are weak, and trading is light before the Spring Festival. Corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly [39] - **Hogs**: Hog spot prices are falling, and the near - month contract has converged with the spot price. There is supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and long - term prices may have a low point [40] - **Eggs**: Egg spot prices have weakened, and the futures premium has been reduced. Egg prices may rise in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the Spring Festival [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded. Domestic cotton processing and sales are increasing, and imports have increased. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production in India is increasing, while in Thailand it is slower than expected. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is slow, but there is an expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season. Sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are oscillating. The Spring Festival stocking is in full swing, but the high purchase price and quality issues may affect inventory reduction [44] - **Timber**: Timber futures are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak before the Spring Festival. Low inventory provides some support [45] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures are falling. Port inventory has increased for five consecutive weeks, and demand support is weak. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate [46] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose sharply, and the trading volume increased. The stock index futures also rose. The market is expected to continue to recover, and attention should be paid to technology - related sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures rose, and the curve showed a slight bull - steepening. The market is expected to be strong before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to curve - trading opportunities [48] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot market price is stable. Airlines plan to raise prices in March, but the post - Spring Festival period is a traditional off - season. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is under pressure from resumption of flights [21] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic production of pure benzene is increasing, and downstream utilization has improved. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve around the Spring Festival, and port inventory may gradually decrease [26] - **Styrene**: Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing before the Spring Festival. Social inventory will accumulate seasonally after the Spring Festival [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - holiday supply is tight. Polyolefin demand is weak as factories are on holiday [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating narrowly, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Exports are good, and prices are expected to rise. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly, but there is cost - side pressure [29] - **PX and PTA**: PX is recommended for long - positions in the first half of the year, but the current demand is weak. PTA load has increased slightly. Consider long - positions in PX processing margin and positive spreads after the Spring Festival [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol production is increasing, and demand is weak. Inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. There is an expectation of improvement in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Consider positive spreads after the Spring Festival [32] - **Glass**: Glass futures are rising. Inventory is increasing, and there is pressure during the Spring Festival. Industry capacity is being compressed, and there may be opportunities for low - price purchases [33] - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Rubber inventory is increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is running weakly. Inventory is rising, and there is supply - demand surplus pressure in the long - term. A short - selling strategy can be considered [35]

Group 1 - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue in January was $4.55 billion, an increase of 7.8% compared to the same period last year [2] - Chile is the world's largest copper producer [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, in collaboration with copper industry chain enterprises, has compiled a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" to assist the industry in navigating these changes [2]

Group 1 - Precious metals have regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.1% to $5084.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that uncertainties driven by the Trump administration's policies and the midterm elections may remain high, but an optimistic outlook for the gold market is still possible, which could positively influence other precious metals [1] - The bullish trend in non-ferrous metals is anticipated to continue into 2026, especially if leading indicators for infrastructure and manufacturing in China and the U.S. show improvement [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has its top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 49.87% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua closely tracks the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2]