1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, potentially under pressure after the holiday [7] 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with prices slightly fluctuating. The overall contradiction is not prominent, but the pre - holiday inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly rising [1]. - The iron ore market is in a state of cautious waiting, with prices oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the support from raw material prices is weakening [3]. - The downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke is completed, and the trading atmosphere is dull. The prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday [5][6]. - The output of thermal coal is continuously shrinking, and the price lacks driving force. The pre - holiday price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and may face pressure after the holiday [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot prices were generally stable. This week, the inventory accumulation of building materials continued to increase, and the plate inventory also rose. The output of building materials decreased significantly, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Before the holiday, the production and sales of building materials declined simultaneously. The short - process production suspension scale increased, and the inventory continued to grow. The demand for plates was relatively stable, but the high inventory restricted the price space of hot - rolled coils. Overall, the pre - holiday inventory of steel continued to increase, the supply - demand pressure increased slightly, and the raw material prices weakened. The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the margin increase and position reduction before the holiday may affect the market fluctuations [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume at major domestic ports was 238,000 tons, a 57.21% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 380,000 tons (5 transactions), a 45.32% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, the non - mainstream shipments remained high at high ore prices, and the global shipment volume decreased seasonally. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the iron ore consumption increased slightly month - on - month. The port inventory of iron ore continued to increase, and as the steel mills' replenishment was nearing completion, the support from raw material prices weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to deepen, and if the port liquidity factors were removed, the port supply would cause a great impact [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation with a bearish bias; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated within a narrow range. For coking coal, as the holiday approached, coal mines successively announced production suspension and holiday plans, and downstream procurement slowed down or stopped, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. For coke, the spot price was relatively stable. After the first price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises gradually recovered. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, the supply increased slightly recently. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling. As the holiday approached, coking plants adjusted their production independently, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term, following the cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the pig iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and the rigid demand for coking coal remained resilient. As the downstream replenishment was nearing completion, the speculative demand shrank. As the Spring Festival approached, coal mines successively stopped production for holidays, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal was relieved. The coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable with a narrow - range adjustment [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of production areas, the number of coal mines on holiday in the main production areas continued to increase, and the operating mines were mainly large state - owned mines, with the supply continuously decreasing. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the main transactions were concentrated in long - term contracts, and the pre - holiday price was expected to change little. At ports, the market trading was dull, mainly with long - term contract coal. More traders were on holiday, and basically all had entered the holiday state. Affected by the shortage of imported coal and the rise in domestic prices, sellers were more willing to hold prices. In the import market, the RKAB in Indonesia was not fully implemented, the offers from Indonesian miners were scarce, and the market quotes and tender prices increased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the supply decreased due to coal mine holidays, and downstream factories were also gradually on holiday, so both supply and demand were weak. Affected by the supply in the import market, the price of domestic trade coal continued to rise slightly. Recently, the full approval of RKAB by leading mines in Indonesia was expected, and the approval results of other mines were expected to be announced successively. The supply in Indonesia was expected to recover. Overall, the pre - holiday price increase was limited, and it was expected to run stably with a slight upward trend. After the holiday, as the coal mine supply recovered and the peak season was approaching the end, the coal price may be under pressure [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Youfa Group (601686) has announced an investment of 500 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., aimed at enhancing its competitive edge and national strategic layout [1] - The new subsidiary will be registered in Nanhai District, Foshan, and will focus on technology services, new material research and development, and manufacturing and sales of metal products [1] - A cooperation agreement has been signed with the local government to build a modern green factory, which is expected to achieve an annual output value of 8 billion yuan upon reaching full production [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Xinda Energy, the steel sector has potential for recovery due to a bottoming out of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a liquidity-rich environment, with Youfa Group identified as a key focus among high-quality steel enterprises [2] - The report highlights that the industry's "anti-involution" policies are likely to promote high-quality development, although caution is advised regarding risks from the real estate downturn [2] Group 3 - On February 11, 2026, Youfa Group's stock price remained stable with a trading volume of 47.7046 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.52% [3] - The company has attracted market attention due to its high dividend yield (over 4.7% for the past three years) and its involvement in underground pipeline and water conservancy concepts, although there has been a net outflow of major funds [3] - The stock price was reported at 6.22 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.16% and a year-to-date increase of 3.86%, while the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 11.08 times, indicating a short-term volatile trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production enterprises of short - process construction steel in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and overhaul during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different production suspension arrangements, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the number of non - farm employees increased by 1.3 million last month, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The strong employment data made traders lower their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year [3] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects at home and abroad are ramping up production, pushing up the daily output. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream processing enterprises are on holiday, the operating rate is declining, and the demand is weakening [4] - The comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing last week was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. There are significant differences among different sectors. The operating rates of aluminum plate and strip, aluminum foil, aluminum cable, and aluminum profile have different trends [4] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has been accumulating for about two months before the Spring Festival. As of February 9, it reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday. It is expected that the downstream demand will not improve significantly before the Spring Festival [4] Non - ferrous Metals - The short - term market sentiment has eased to some extent. The linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous sectors is still strong, and the market trading sentiment is cautious. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [5] - Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [5]

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/12 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/05 | 3120 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/06 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/09 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/10 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/11 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, the stock index futures show a trend of decreased trading volume and narrowed fluctuations, while the bond market sentiment remains relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the agricultural product market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and policy changes affect the prices of different products. In the energy and chemical sectors, geopolitical risks and supply - demand fundamentals play important roles in price trends. [20][23][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume decreased and fluctuations narrowed. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with a suggestion of a slightly bullish bias and a strategy of buying on dips. [20][21] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The pre - holiday sentiment remained warm. The short - term probability of policy interest rate cuts is low, and after the holiday, the bond market sentiment may become more cautious. Suggestions include waiting and trying to short the TS contract on rallies. [23][25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price increased significantly due to increased position - reduction on the disk. The international supply is relatively loose, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and use a strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [28][29] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is also expected to follow suit. It is recommended to wait and sell call options in the short term. [30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The sector oscillated and declined as the holiday approached, maintaining a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to try shorting on rallies or buying on dips after the correction, and consider reverse arbitrage for y59. [35][37] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the disk is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view on the outer - market 03 corn after it stabilizes, and short the 05 corn on rallies. [39][40] - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has some support. It is recommended to wait and use a strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [42][45] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the disk oscillates in a narrow range. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanuts on dips and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [46][48] - **Eggs**: As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, the egg price has declined. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies. [49][50] - **Apples**: The pre - holiday sales are good, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage. [53][55] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the cotton price has some support. It is expected that the US cotton will oscillate weakly in the short term, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate within a range. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival. [57] Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand continues to decline, and the steel price is under oscillatory pressure. It is recommended to follow the market sentiment and maintain an oscillatory and weak trend, and short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short - position on the coil - rebar spread. [60][61] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are on holiday. After the holiday, changes in the domestic and international coal markets need to be monitored. It is recommended to conduct band - trading, go long on dips, and sell out - of - the - money put options. [61][64] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are continuously weakening, and the ore price is running weakly. It is recommended to hold a small short position. [66] - **Ferroalloys**: As the long holiday approaches, it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions on rallies. [68][69] Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The non - farm payroll data shows differences, and the market focus has shifted to the CPI. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and hold no positions during the holiday, while aggressive investors can hold long positions on Shanghai gold and silver with reference to the moving averages. [71][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and asset fluctuations are high. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait for the right time to enter the market. [74][75] - **Copper**: The non - farm payroll data is positive, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. The copper price is in a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to operate cautiously during the Spring Festival. [77][78] - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply - side production capacity. It is recommended to be cautious in participation, with short - term oscillation and the possibility of increased volatility. It is advisable to buy call options. [79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The strong non - farm payroll data has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and pay attention to the power negotiation progress of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique. [82][84] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates with the outer - market aluminum price. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, with high - level oscillation in the short term. [85][86] - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. [88][89] - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions. [90][91] - **Nickel**: The news of nickel ore quotas has boosted the price. It is recommended to hold a light long position or no position during the holiday and sell out - of - the - money put options. [92][94] - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to observe more and take a long - position on dips before the holiday. [96][97] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the support near the previous low. It is recommended to wait for the disk to stabilize. [98] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of industry self - discipline and price support. It is recommended to wait for low - price opportunities on the disk, and consider buying call options. [99][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, but the spot market is weakening. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options. [104][105] - **Tin**: The non - farm payroll is strong, and the tin price is resilient. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday. [107][108] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and pay attention to the risks of the Iranian situation. It is recommended not to hold positions during the holiday and conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage on a rolling basis. [110][111] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The tense situation in Iran is driving the oil market. The international oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. [113][114] - **Asphalt**: The trading is light, and the inventory is at a low level. The spot prices in various regions are basically stable. It is recommended to conduct long - position trading on dips for the BU2606 contract. [114][116] - **Fuel Oil**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks before the year, and it is advisable to enter the market cautiously. It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage on the FU59 contract and take profit on rallies, and pay attention to the near - month reverse arbitrage of LU. [117][119] - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. It is recommended to conduct wide - range oscillation trading. [120][121] - **Natural Gas**: The US natural gas and LNG are waiting for guidance. It is recommended to continue to hold short positions on the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract. [123][125] - **PX & PTA**: The cost support is increasing. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory and bullish trading. [127][128] - **BZ & EB**: The supply is returning. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory consolidation trading. [129][131] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory consolidation trading. [132][134] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber factories are reducing production as planned. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory and bullish trading. [135] - **Bottle Chips**: The market is light as the holiday approaches. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory and bullish trading. [137][138] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory consolidation trading. [140][141] - **Plastic PP**: The export delivery value of the rubber and plastic industry is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions on the L and PP 2605 contracts and set stop - losses. [143][144] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is oscillating. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory trading. [146][147] - **PVC**: It is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips. [148][150] - **Soda Ash**: The price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to expect a possible rise followed by a fall after the holiday, and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage before the holiday and sell call options. [151][153] - **Glass**: The price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to expect a downward trend after the holiday, and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage before the holiday and sell call options. [154][155] - **Methanol**: It is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections. [156][158] - **Urea**: It is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the futures market. [159][160] - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The price difference between Thai glue and cup - lump rubber is continuously strengthening. It is recommended to hold long positions on the RU 05 contract and short the NR 04 contract, and conduct long - RU2605 and short - RU2609 arbitrage. [162][167] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The apparent demand for butadiene rubber is decreasing marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 04 contract and set stop - losses. [168][170]

Core Viewpoint - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Supporting the Transformation and Upgrading of Advanced Manufacturing in Shanghai (2026-2028)" aims to accelerate the establishment of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, promoting green and intelligent transformation across various enterprises in Shanghai [1][2]. Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The action plan includes four major actions and 17 measures to enhance the development of advanced manufacturing [1]. - By 2028, Shanghai aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan and increase the number of large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain by 500 [1]. Group 2: Industry Development Paths - The plan outlines three development paths: - For traditional advantageous industries, it emphasizes "optimization and enhancement" [1]. - For leading industries, it promotes "strategic guidance" [1]. - For key and emerging industries, it focuses on "expansion and development" [1]. Group 3: Innovation and Resource Support - The action plan supports enterprises in high-level R&D and high-value product transformation, addressing industry pain points and overcoming key core technologies [2]. - It encourages full-process upgrades, AI integration in manufacturing, and carbon footprint management to achieve quality and efficiency improvements [2]. Group 4: Financial Incentives - The plan provides substantial financial support for R&D, including: - A one-time subsidy of 10 million yuan for enterprises with annual R&D expenditures of 100 million yuan or more [2]. - A one-time subsidy of 5 million yuan for those spending between 50 million and 100 million yuan [2]. - A one-time subsidy of 2 million yuan for R&D expenditures between 1 million and 5 million yuan [2]. Group 5: Additional Financial Support Measures - The plan includes subsidies for fixed asset investment loans related to technology upgrades, with a maximum of 20 million yuan [3]. - Companies upgrading energy-saving processes and equipment can receive rewards based on coal consumption, up to 10 million yuan [3]. - A one-time reward of 200,000 yuan is available for enterprises recognized as national green factories [3].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 13 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 13 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：情绪利好推升盘面，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 | 19 | | 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 | 19 | | 铁矿石：区间震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：事件扰动，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 28 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Range - bound trading [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range trading [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range trading affected by events [2][15] - Logs: Range - bound trading [2][19] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The closing price of I2605 was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%); the position decreased by 6,983 hands to 506,957 hands [4] - **Spot Price**: Imported and domestic ore prices remained stable [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed slightly [4] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.07%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). The position of RB2605 decreased by 1,877 hands, and that of HC2605 increased by 9,529 hands [6] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in major cities remained unchanged [6] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [6] - **News**: On February 5th, steel production, inventory and apparent demand data changed; in late January, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed; BHP's iron ore production hit a record high; China's steel import data changed; some steel products were subject to export license management [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 decreased, while those of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 increased [11] - **News**: A new capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia was ignited; Jupiter would not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were reported; a steel mill's silicon - iron procurement price was determined; electricity prices in some southern regions increased, and southern silicon - manganese production was expected to decrease [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.1%). The position of JM2605 decreased by 14,309 hands, and that of J2605 increased by 820 hands [15] - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained stable, with a 2 - yuan increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [15] - **News**: On February 11th, CCI metallurgical coal index data was reported; the coking coal online auction had a 43% non - successful bid rate, with most transaction prices falling [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Price, Volume and Position**: The closing prices, trading volumes and positions of different log contracts changed, with some showing declines. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [19] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Before the festival, demand weakens, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures price is under pressure to adjust downward, but the downward space is limited due to pre - two sessions macro disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The inventory pressure increases, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the post - festival demand expectation is average, and the futures price is under pressure to oscillate [8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure is healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal [10] - Coking coal: Before and after the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production is restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely [11] - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year [12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [12] - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost [14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure continues to increase, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the current market's post - festival demand expectation is average, the futures price is under pressure, but after the rapid decline, the pressure is released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The global shipping volume has declined slightly this period, mainly due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side will maintain a relatively loose pattern. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and the support for prices may weaken as restocking progresses [2][7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products. The average arrival volume this week has decreased significantly, and the daily consumption has also decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased, and the total inventory available days are close to the same period last year [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal. After the first round of price increases, the coking profit has improved significantly, and the overall coke supply has increased. The demand side has a strong rigid demand for coke, and the inventory of steel mills has increased, but the available days are lower than the same period [2][10] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of domestic coal mines will decline, and the import of Mongolian coal is still at a high level. The inventory of coking coal is transferring from upstream mines to downstream [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost. The upstream inventory is high, the cost price is firm, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the market inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost. The cost side has strengthened support, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the daily production level of ferrosilicon continues to be low [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply side is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand side is weak, and the mid - level inventory suppresses the futures price [3][12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline. The supply side's daily output has increased, the demand side's demand for heavy soda ash is weakening, and the overall downstream demand is showing a downward trend [3][12]

Macro Insights - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has significantly decreased due to seasonal factors and the drop in fresh vegetable prices, but the upward trend remains intact. The transmission of raw material price increases to downstream durable consumer goods continues, and the central government's policy on pig production capacity may accelerate the reduction of pig production, leading to a moderate improvement in pork prices in the second half of the year [1] - The PPI month-on-month growth rate has accelerated, with price increases spreading further, influenced by external factors and domestic policies aimed at reducing competition. It is expected that the PPI year-on-year growth may turn positive in the second quarter [1] Industry Research - In the steel and aluminum sector, the potential for increased dividend payouts is supported by three factors: the inclusion of market capitalization management in assessments, high dividend yield as a core strategy for insurance capital allocation, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries. Companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are likely to have strong dividend potential. Key recommendations include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials, with a suggestion to pay attention to China Aluminum [3] Company Research - Jiantao Laminated Board (1888.HK) is a leading global manufacturer of copper-clad laminates with a vertically integrated supply chain. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be HKD 2.17 billion, HKD 3.95 billion, and HKD 4.84 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 64%, 82%, and 22% respectively. The company excels in cost control and supply chain stability, enhancing profit elasticity during rising copper price cycles, and its deep upstream material layout and AI electronic fabric are expected to open new growth avenues. The company is considered to have a certain level of scarcity and valuation upside, thus receiving a "buy" rating [4]