1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It evaluates the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for each commodity based on supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic factors, and industry - specific events. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. US PMI data exceeded expectations while European PMI data was weak. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and Glencore stated that the mountain ISA smelter was difficult to continue operating. Demand showed some resilience, with premiums for flat - water copper in East and South China at 70 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the London structure at a 392 - dollar back [1]. - Trading strategy: Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 20,365 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 435 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2,559 dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: LME has forced traders holding near - month contract positions exceeding available inventory to reduce their positions to limit spot liquidity risk. Aluminum ingots have seen inventory accumulation (15,000 tons) for the first time since June. It is necessary to observe whether the inventory accumulation is continuous, and aluminum prices may come under pressure to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 2,906 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 288 yuan/ton. On June 20, India had a transaction of 30,000 tons at a price of 366 dollars/ton (the previous transaction was also at 366 dollars/ton) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production capacity continued to be released, and the operating capacity increased. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity was stable [1]. - Trading strategy: The alumina futures price encountered resistance when rising. In the medium term, the pressure of production capacity release and inventory accumulation persists, and the price may continue to operate at a low level [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 09 contract closed at 7,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 303,119 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 439 lots to 54,184 lots [1]. - Fundamentals: Last week, spot prices stopped falling. On the supply side, there was no significant contraction, and the number of open furnaces increased by 5. Weekly inventory decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and after the market decline, the visible inventory of warehouse receipts turned into invisible inventory. On the demand side, the production of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared to May, and there are plans for复产 this week. The production of organic silicon was relatively stable, and the decline in industrial chain prices widened. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [1]. - Trading strategy: If the futures price continues to rise, it may face hedging pressure, and the rebound of the market may be limited. Before there is an effective reduction in actual supply during the flood season, maintain a bearish view. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level. Consider shorting lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to the on - site sentiment at the Leshan industry conference [1]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 08 contract closed at 30,615 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 10,054 lots to 78,183 lots. The 11 contract closed at 30,030 yuan/ton. Today, the warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged at 2,600 lots (7,800 tons) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production changed little, and the industry inventory decreased slightly. There are still expectations of复产 in the future, and the market is pessimistic about the joint production cuts by leading enterprises. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, which is related to the production scheduling of some enterprises' previous orders in the third quarter due to limited quotas. The expected production schedule for the third quarter is still declining quarter - on - quarter. According to the balance sheet, inventory will start to accumulate in July [1]. - Trading strategy: The industry's复产 plan exceeded expectations. In the short term, it is recommended to go short on the 07 contract on rallies. Pay attention to the industry's production cut plan [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined, affected by favorable weather in the production area and the sharp drop in crude oil prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply from South America was abundant in the near term, and the growth of US soybeans was normal in the long term. On the demand side, South America was the main influence in the short term, US soybean exports were seasonally weak, but the US biodiesel policy was beneficial to the demand for soybean crushing [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate strongly; in China, although there will be a large arrival of soybeans later, demand will also remain high. The domestic market will follow the international cost side [2]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2509 contract corrected, and the spot price of corn declined slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: This year, the supply - demand situation has tightened marginally, and the grain rights have shifted to channels, increasing the bargaining power of channels. The expected import volume of substitutes will decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. The wheat support - price purchase has boosted the wheat price, which will also drive up the corn price. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Trading strategy: With the reduction of remaining grain and the wheat support - price purchase, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and Malaysia's production in May increased by 5% month - on - month. On the demand side, the exports from the production area improved month - on - month. ITS showed that exports，from June 1 - 20 increased by 14% month - on - month [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the volatility of palm oil will increase, affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and other factors. The trading difficulty has increased. Pay attention to crude oil and biodiesel policies [2]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2508 contract performed strongly, and the spot price was stable [2]. - Fundamentals: Due to breeding losses, the culling of old hens is expected to decrease temporarily. Supply remains high, and the hot and humid weather is not conducive to egg storage, but low prices stimulate demand. With strong supply and weak demand and cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Trading strategy: With sufficient supply and cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate [2]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig 2509 contract performed strongly, and the spot price of pigs rose [2]. - Fundamentals: Large - scale farms have been continuously reducing the weight of pigs recently, and the pressure to sell at the end of the month has decreased. Small - scale farmers, on the contrary, continue to hold back pigs to gain weight. At the end of the month, the supply from the breeding side will decrease, and the entry of second - fattening will support the price. The pig price is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium term, the supply will continue to increase, and the center of the pig price will gradually decline. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of enterprises and the trend of second - fattening [2]. - Trading strategy: With reduced supply at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Energy Chemicals PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 4,897, down 0.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: PVC was driven up by the rise in crude oil prices and then retreated. On the supply side, the plants of Wanhua, Bohua, etc. are gradually being put into production, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The upstream operating rate is 80%, and maintenance has gradually ended. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing. On June 19, the new sample of PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month and 37.97% year - on - year. India has postponed the BIS anti - dumping investigation until December, which is beneficial to exports. The carbide price is 2,400 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the future. The spot price has stopped rising, with 4,800 yuan in East China and 4,870 yuan in Inner Mongolia [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. Since there is no driving force for a rebound, consider selling call options above 4,950 [4]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX is 899 dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,430 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 5,260 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 264 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: On the cost side of PX, domestic production still has maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shandong Weilian, and the load increase is limited. Overseas, a 400,000 - ton plant of South Korea's GS has restarted, a 500,000 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos has unexpectedly shut down, plants in Iran and Israel have shut down, the restart of a Saudi plant has been postponed, and Vietnam's NSRP has reduced production. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level. For PTA, Hengli Dalian and Fuhai Chuang are implementing maintenance plans, Yisheng New Materials has briefly reduced production, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant has restarted. Overall, the supply has decreased, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. After the peripheral factors drove the market last Friday, there was concentrated replenishment at the terminal; since the weekend, downstream enterprises have mainly been digesting their stocks, with only rigid demand following up. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, both PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern [4]. - Trading strategy: Continue to hold long positions in PX. PTA has tight short - term liquidity but large medium - and long - term surplus pressure. Maintain the view of shorting the processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,007, up 0.1% [4]. - Fundamentals: The glass trading volume has been mixed, and the average price has been stable. Downstream demand is gradually improving. On the supply side, 4 production lines will resume production in July, and the supply growth rate is expected to increase by 1.2% month - on - month. The daily melting volume of glass is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8.8% year - on - year. Inventory has unexpectedly accumulated. On June 19, the upstream inventory was 69,887,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.29% month - on - month and 16.82% year - on - year. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises are 9.8 days, the operating rate is about 48%, which is lower than in previous years. In terms of valuation, losses have increased, with a large loss of 195 yuan for the natural - gas route, a profit of about 85 yuan for the coal - gas route, and a loss of 105 yuan for the petroleum - coke route. The spot prices are 1,120 yuan in North China, 1,020 yuan in Central China, 1,230 yuan in East China, and 1,280 yuan in South China [4]. - Trading strategy: The downward trend of glass prices is hard to reverse. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [4]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,597 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 78 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Plants are restarting in a concentrated manner, increasing the supply. Pay attention to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan at the end of the month. Overseas, plants in Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia have restarted, increasing the import supply. The inventory at East China ports is around 620,000 tons, at a historically low level. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, the supply - demand situation of MEG has weakened [4]. - Trading strategy: With the easing of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to take short positions [4]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,173, down 0.3% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the supply is gradually recovering. On the supply side, the Lianyungang Soda plant has reached full production, and the upstream operating rate of soda ash is 86%. Summer maintenance has gradually ended, and Qinghai Fatou Soda and Xuzhou Fengcheng Soda have maintenance plans this month. Inventory has accumulated at a high level. On June 23, the upstream inventory was 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from last Thursday, a rise of 1.69%. The number of days of pending orders for upstream manufacturers is 11 days. The inventory at delivery warehouses is 311,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,000 tons, the inventory days are 30.5 days, and the photovoltaic glass production line of China National Building Materials Yixing has blocked the kiln mouth. The soda ash price has changed little, with the delivered price around 1,250 yuan, the futures - spot quotation in Shahe at 09 contract + 20, and the factory - pickup price in Inner Mongolia at 09 contract - 160 [4][5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand of soda ash is weak on both sides, and it will oscillate at the bottom. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 for soda ash options [5].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.