Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11% and spot silver increasing over 10%, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 175%, significantly outpacing gold [1][3] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The current price of silver has surpassed that of WTI crude oil, with silver at $79.19 per ounce and oil at $56.93 per barrel, a situation not seen since April 2020 [1][3] - The market has experienced a supply shortage for five consecutive years, with an estimated cumulative shortfall of 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025, indicating a structural deficit with no quick resolution in sight [6] Group 2: Demand Factors - Industrial demand for silver has risen to account for 50% to 60% of total demand, driven by its essential role in various industries, including solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics [3][4] - The solar industry alone consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling, highlighting the growing industrial demand despite potential reductions in U.S. solar support [4] Group 3: Supply Constraints - There is little prospect for significant new silver production, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being a byproduct of mining other metals like copper and gold [5] - COMEX silver inventories have decreased by 70% since 2020, and London vaults have seen a 40% drop, with available silver stocks in some regions only sufficient for 30 to 45 days of demand [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns that precious metal prices have reached levels difficult to justify by fundamentals, with predictions of a potential decline in silver prices to around $42 by the end of next year [7][8] - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of short-term catalysts and long-term structural factors, with a warning that the rapid increase may lead to heightened market volatility and potential corrections [8]

Market Overview - The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.14%, down 2 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.69% to 98.0[3] - The A-share market saw all indices rise, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 leading the gains[3] - Gold prices increased by 4.24% this week, driven by a short squeeze in silver, leading precious metals to outperform global assets[3] Capital Flows - In the week ending December 24, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $12.6 billion, while domestic capital inflows reached $71.32 billion[3] - The US stock market saw a significant inflow of $222.6 billion into fixed income funds, while Chinese equity markets attracted $83.9 billion[16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at the 87.5th percentile over the past decade, trailing only the S&P 500 and CAC 40[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares slightly decreased but remains at a historically neutral level[15] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 index has shown a low recovery, indicating a more optimistic pricing of volatility compared to the previous week[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.08, reflecting a slight rise in bearish sentiment[3] Economic Data - The US consumer confidence index fell significantly to 51.0, indicating a cooling economy[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 increased to 82.3%, up from 77.9% the previous week[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant weekly increase of 6.3%, driven by rising prices of lithium, copper, gold, and silver, although stock prices remain stagnant compared to commodity price increases. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit non-ferrous metals as they are expected to gain from overseas inflation [1] - The report expresses optimism about the valuation recovery potential in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly for lithium, copper, silver, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased, with COMEX gold at $4540.1 per ounce (+4.10%) and silver at $79.0 per ounce (+18.14%). The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have contributed to this rise, alongside strong demand from central banks and ETFs [2] - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have risen, with LME copper at $12133.0 per ton (+3.46%) and SHFE copper at ¥98600 per ton (+6.53%). Supply constraints and reduced processing fees are influencing the market, while demand from downstream industries is currently subdued [3] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, with LME aluminum at $2956.5 per ton (+1.35%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥22335.0 per ton (+1.66%). The macroeconomic environment and liquidity are supporting prices, despite a trend towards seasonal weakness in demand [8] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at ¥337560 per ton (-0.4%). Supply remains tight, and concerns about imports from key regions persist, while demand is expected to rise due to the electronics sector [9] Energy Metals - Lithium prices have surged, with carbonate lithium futures at ¥130520 per ton (+17.2%). The market anticipates increased demand for energy storage and power batteries, with a positive outlook for lithium prices in 2026 [10] - Recommended stocks include Dazhong Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Yongxing Materials [10] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are showing mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide at ¥595500 and ¥607500 per ton, respectively. The approval of export licenses may boost demand [13] - Recommended stocks include Huahong Technology, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [13]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.21% to $12,133.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 5.95% to 98,700 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 14.96% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 88,200 tons year-on-year [1] - High copper prices are suppressing market demand, leading to a decline in operating rates for domestic wire and cable enterprises [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.03% to $2,956.50 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.99% to 22,400 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 617,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% due to weak orders and high aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.24% to $4,505.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 15.73 tons to 1,068.27 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks are influencing the gold market, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [3] - The market is anticipating significant developments in international relations that could impact gold prices [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 3.33% this week [4] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is boosting demand forecasts for rare earths [4] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 6.94% to 103,400 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 3.22% to 89,800 yuan per ton [5] - Lithium production increased to 22,200 tons this week, with a slight rise in output [5] - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with strong demand from the new energy sector supporting high prices [5] Group 6: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.85% this week, attributed to profit-taking by speculative funds [4] - The outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [4] - Resource scarcity and reduced production from overseas mines are expected to support upward price trends [4] Group 7: Tin - Tin price decreased by 1.07% this week, with inventory increasing by 4.72% [4] - Supply disruptions in major overseas tin mining regions are contributing to price fluctuations [4] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to expected demand growth in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [4] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 7.0% to $15,700 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 12.0% to 125,000 yuan per ton [5] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential supply tightening from Indonesia [5] - Current market dynamics reflect a balance between strong expectations and weak demand realities [5]

在法务服务支持方面，内蒙古建立IPO会诊机制，通过上市审核法务和财务专家的诊断，筛选上市后备 企业合规性和可行性。 在金融服务支持方面，内蒙古推行主办银行机制，为拟上市重点企业提供"陪伴式"融资支持。 "天骏计划"以提高上市公司质量为目标，构建"培育一批、辅导一批、申报一批、上市一批"的梯次推进 企业上市格局，构建全生命周期企业上市培育体系。内蒙古联合沪深北交易所，通过资本市场服务月活 动，对规模以上企业开展现代企业制度和资本市场知识常态化培训，累计服务企业4446家次；建立起动 态上市后备企业库，实现上市资源"储备充足、接续有力"。 编辑：刘润榕 新华财经呼和浩特12月28日电（记者蔡博腾）"十四五"以来内蒙古资本市场交出亮眼答卷，5年来全区 新增上市公司12家，境内外上市公司总量增至35家，19家A股上市公司总市值突破一万亿元。内蒙古深 入实施企业上市"天骏计划"，扎实推进助企行动，构建资本市场投融资协调发展的优良生态，为经济高 质量发展注入强劲动能。 "天骏计划"通过资本赋能，推动优质企业带动产业链协同发展。天和磁材、英思特两家稀土企业上市， 与包钢股份、北方稀土形成稀土产业发展矩阵。赤峰黄金成为自治区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver is approaching $80 per ounce, driven by a structural deficit in the global market, plummeting inventories, and a disconnection between paper trading and physical supply, which poses significant challenges to modern industrial chains [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a rapid price increase, surpassing gold, with concerns raised by Elon Musk regarding its implications for industrial development [3][4]. - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories depleting rapidly and major exchange stock levels significantly declining [6][9]. - The supply-demand gap is widening, with projected silver demand reaching 1.24 billion ounces by 2025, while supply is only expected to be 1.01 billion ounces, resulting in a shortfall of 100 to 250 million ounces [9]. Group 2: Industrial Importance - Silver is not only a precious metal for investment but also a critical raw material for solar panels, electric vehicles, electronic products, and medical devices, with industrial demand accounting for 50% to 60% of total demand [8][10]. - The rigid nature of silver mining supply, primarily as a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, along with the long lead time for new mines, exacerbates the supply constraints [9]. - The significant drop in inventory levels, with COMEX silver stocks down 70% and London vault stocks down 40% since 2020, indicates a precarious supply situation, with some regions having only 30 to 45 days of available silver inventory [9]. Group 3: Paper vs. Physical Silver - There is a severe imbalance between "paper silver" and physical silver, with an estimated ratio of 356:1, meaning each ounce of physical silver corresponds to hundreds of claims in paper trading [10]. - This disconnection heightens market vulnerability, as even a small number of buyers requesting physical delivery could risk system collapse, contributing to the recent price surge [10]. - Industrial buyers, who are less sensitive to price fluctuations due to the lack of effective substitutes, face significant challenges amid supply shortages, as highlighted by Musk's concerns about the volatility impacting critical industries [10].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - Precious metals are experiencing a surge in demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to record high gold prices [11][12]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are seeing price increases despite weak demand, driven by market speculation and supply constraints [13][14]. - New energy metals, especially lithium, are witnessing significant price increases, although spot trading remains sluggish [19][20]. - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are experiencing price fluctuations, with some prices declining due to weak demand [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data have boosted gold prices to new historical highs, with significant interest in stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan [11][12]. - Silver and platinum prices are also rising, with specific stocks recommended for investment [12]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased despite a weak spot market, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts [13][14]. - Aluminum production is increasing in Xinjiang, while demand remains strong due to the automotive sector [17][18]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with significant increases in production and demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19][20][23]. - The report highlights strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks due to their potential in the electric vehicle supply chain [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are fluctuating, with praseodymium and neodymium experiencing a rise followed by a decline, while dysprosium and terbium prices are decreasing [24]. - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks in the rare earth and tungsten sectors for potential investment [24]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 6.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, with significant gains in lithium chemical products [25][28]. - Notable stock performances include Yuyuan Powder Materials and West Materials, with increases of 41.87% and 24.02% respectively [25][35]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the non-ferrous industry is 29.55, indicating relatively low valuations for copper and aluminum sectors [40]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 3.28, suggesting room for growth in aluminum valuations due to supply constraints and increased demand for green metals [42].

在美联储降息预期、各国央行加大贵金属储备，以及市场上投资性资金大量涌入的背景之下，2025年包括黄金、白银在内的贵金属价格 有望创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅。 如果将金、银、铂、钯视为单纯的投资品种，从年内价格变动的情况来看，2025年以来金、银、铂、钯等贵金属的价格涨幅远超同期铜、铝等 基本金属的价格涨幅，也明显超过同期美股市场道琼斯工业指数，以及同期A股市场上证指数涨幅。贵金属已成为2025年以来回报率最高的大类 投资品种之一，2025年俨然成为贵金属的投资"大年"。 黄金：多种因素助推 金价或创下最近46年来最大年度涨幅 2025年的黄金显然迎来了投资"大年"。行情数据显示，截至目前，伦敦金现货价格已突破4500美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅已超过70%。 数据显示，上一次伦敦金年度涨幅超过70%还是46年前的1979年，当年伦敦金现货价格涨幅超过100%。由于2025年仅剩下几天，这意味着， 2025全年黄金价格将大概率创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅，并将大概率创出最近46年来最大年度涨幅。 2025年以来金价的大幅上行受到多种因素助推，其中美联储的降息动作，以及进一步降息的预期是其中一项重要原因。截至目前，20 ...

据每日经济新闻，世界首富、特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对白银价格上涨表示担忧。当地时间12月 27日，他在社交媒体平台发帖称："这可不好。白银在许多工业生产过程中是必须的。" 据中国经济网，受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格12月26日再创新高。其中，交投最活 跃的2026年2月黄金期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎司79美元，逼近 80美元。 12月26日，现货白银涨10.07%，报79.1075美元/盎司，续创历史新高，本周累涨17.92%，年初至今累涨 174.45%。白银的迅猛涨势远超黄金。 伦敦银现 Q < W SPTAGUSDOZ IDC 昨结 71.810 总量 0 y (e) 71.810 现手 0 +7.519 +10.47% 开盘 最高价 79.405 持 仓 0 外 盘 0 最低价 71.629 增 仓 0 内 盘 0 分时 五日 日K 周K 电子 FK (0) 叠加 设均线 MA5:71.728↑ 10:67.995↑ 20:63.533↑ 82.564 -79.405 - 62.459 45.513 42.354 n and the dire ...