Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Silver: Fell from a high, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Copper: Firm spot premium restricts price decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][13] - Zinc: Oscillated downward, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][16] - Lead: Declining inventory restricts price drop, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17] - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][23] - Aluminum: The price center moved down, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Alumina: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Cast aluminum alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Nickel: Intensified long - short game, with nickel prices narrowly oscillating, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] - Stainless steel: Macro factors faded, and prices returned to fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 770.72, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 781.12, with a night - session increase of 1.33%. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 8918 yesterday, down 0.98%, and the night - session closing price was 8994.00, up 0.80% [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The Fed was divided over the employment situation [6][8] Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 78,400, up 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78170, down 0.29% [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Weak US non - farm employment data led to a sharp rise in interest - rate cut expectations. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [11][13] Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22320, down 0.11%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closed at 2729.5, down 1.18% [14] - **News**: The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China said that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious in the first half of the year [15] Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16735, unchanged, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closed at 1974, up 0.23% [17] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 2412 tons to 59948 tons, and LME Lead inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 275325 tons [17] Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 264,950, down 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 266,370, up 0.80% [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC + agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [21] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20510, and the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3162 [24] - **Comprehensive News**: China's imports and exports in June all achieved positive year - on - year growth [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. Some nickel - iron smelting projects in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [28][30]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]

Summary of Market Transactions and Positions as of August 1, 2025 Core Insights - The report provides a detailed overview of transaction volumes and positions across various market sectors, indicating significant changes in trading activity compared to previous periods [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index transactions amounted to 550.37 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 26.82% from the previous period [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 1103.066 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.12% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 49.35% [1] Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bond transactions totaled 382.529 billion yuan, down by 7.03% [1] - The holding amount for government bonds was 865.329 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.25% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was recorded at 44.77% [1] Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions reached 449.204 billion yuan, a significant drop of 25.58% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 482.903 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.72% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 107.44% [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions were 278.766 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial decline of 36.55% [1] - The holding amount for precious metals was 438.786 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.28% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 82.47% [1] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions totaled 447.496 billion yuan, down by 12.28% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 414.450 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.19% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 93.58% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions amounted to 320.812 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.97% [1] - The holding amount for agricultural products was 571.980 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.67% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 49.16% [1] Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions reached 495.117 billion yuan, down by 9.48% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 372.928 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.44% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 125.45% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the supply-demand imbalance and rebalancing in the base metals sector, with a focus on the cyclical nature of recession and recovery [3][10] - In the precious metals sector, central bank gold purchases and a shift in risk appetite are expected to drive gold prices upward [4][26] - The small metals sector is characterized by cyclical demand trends, with both supply-demand tug-of-war and long-term opportunities [5][46] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is anticipated to enter a new cycle, driven by the growing demand for high-performance materials in electric vehicles [6][65] - The report discusses the sandwich structure of investment in new metal materials, emphasizing long-term technological trends and short-term performance elasticity [7][80] Summary by Sections Base Metals - Base metals are closely tied to manufacturing and economic cycles, with copper facing supply constraints primarily at the mining level due to previous capital expenditure limitations [3][15] - Aluminum supply is bottlenecked at the smelting stage, with profitability per ton determining operational capacity [22][24] Precious Metals - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, contributing to rising demand [27][32] - The correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has shifted, indicating a market response to extreme risks [35][36] Small Metals - The small metals sector shows stronger price elasticity compared to industrial metals, with tungsten and tin being highlighted for their strategic importance and demand from the electronics sector [5][49][55] Rare Earths - The demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets is expected to grow, particularly in the automotive sector, while supply remains rigid [6][75] - The report notes a tightening supply-demand balance in the rare earth sector, driven by increasing demand from various applications [6][75] New Metal Materials - The investment framework for new metal materials is described as a sandwich structure, focusing on long-term trends, mid-term growth attributes, and short-term performance [7][80] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in semiconductor materials and high-performance applications driven by AI and power density trends [83][84]

每经AI快讯，当地时间7月31日，伦敦基本金属全线下跌，LME期锡跌2.02%报32685.00美元/吨，LME 期铝跌1.48%报2562.50美元/吨，LME期铅跌1.13%报1969.50美元/吨，LME期铜跌0.94%报9607.00美元/ 吨，LME期锌跌0.84%报2762.00美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.47%报14950.00美元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international spot gold price opened at $3316.24, reaching a high of $3333.89 and a low of $3307.79, closing at $3326.38, an increase of $11.60 or 0.35% [1] - The gold price is currently supported by monthly and quarterly lines, indicating potential for a rebound after a recent break [5] - Despite the strengthening US dollar, gold and other precious metals have shown resilience, suggesting a possible short-term reaction to technical support levels [5][8] Group 2: US Dollar Index Performance - The US dollar index opened at 98.64 points, peaked at 99.13 points, and closed at 98.90 points, up 250 points or 0.25%, marking a five-week high [3] - The dollar's strength is expected to exert increasing pressure on gold and commodity prices, testing their technical support levels [8] Group 3: Precious Metals Overview - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6995.28 points, with a high of 7046.05 points and a low of 6943.15 points, closing at 7023.70 points, an increase of 32.77 points or 0.47% [4] - Silver, platinum, and palladium prices also saw increases, with silver up 0.10% to $38.18, platinum up 0.60% to $1395.20, and palladium up 1.69% to $1254.50 [5] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - NYMEX crude oil prices increased significantly, with a rise of 2.94% on Monday and 3.39% on Tuesday, despite the strong dollar [8] - The current oil price dynamics suggest a potential bottoming out, with the market showing signs of resilience against the backdrop of inflation concerns [10][12] Group 5: Hedge Fund Positioning in Oil - The total market value of open contracts in NYMEX crude oil futures is $2635.40 billion, with hedge fund positions significantly reduced compared to previous years [15] - Hedge funds' net positions in the oil market are at a ten-year low, indicating limited capacity to exert downward pressure on oil prices [16]

2025年07月27日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 金属短期承压不改上行方向 ——20250727招商期货基本金属铜锡周报 品种分析：铜锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | 沪铝指数 | | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.5% | 17.1% | 7.2% | -2.0% | -4.1% | 16.1% | 过去一年 | 7.3% | 7.7% | | -0.1% | -6.1% | -5.1% | 8.8% | | 过去一月 | | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | ...

2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，施压价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡走弱 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：情绪回落 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance is catalyzing a bull market for minor metals, with prices for tungsten, cobalt, and rare earths expected to continue rising [4] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise in the second half of the year due to downstream enterprises beginning to replenish inventory and the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] - Tungsten prices have increased by 3.30% this week, with black tungsten concentrate prices nearing 190,000 yuan/ton, a 25.33% increase from May's low [5] - The demand for tungsten is bolstered by a significant increase in military orders, with the Ministry of Defense announcing a total of 978 billion yuan in new military orders for the 2025 fiscal year, a 16.8% year-on-year increase [5] - Lithium prices have surged due to optimistic supply expectations, with recommendations to buy on dips as prices may recover to 80,000-90,000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.9%, ranking second among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 1.03%, aluminum by 0.79%, zinc by 0.86%, lead increased by 0.30%, and tin by 0.65% [20] - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 3.06%, silver by 3.37%, while nickel decreased by 0.39% and cobalt increased by 0.82% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventory changes: copper decreased by 895 tons, aluminum increased by 6,166 tons, zinc increased by 374 tons, and lead increased by 3,675 tons [27]

Group 1 - The central government has initiated measures to prevent "involution" and unhealthy competition, with relevant ministries actively implementing "anti-involution" policies [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released a draft amendment to the Price Law, which includes ten articles focusing on government pricing, standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, and legal responsibilities for price violations [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need to resist "involution" competition and promote the restructuring and optimization of state-owned capital [3] Group 2 - On July 24, the basic metals index in the Wind China industry index rose by 3.94%, leading the industry indices, and has accelerated since the end of June [5] - The steel index also saw a significant increase of 2.43%, with substantial growth since July 1 [5] - The construction materials index experienced a surge following the commencement of the Yaxi Hydropower Super Project, continuing a trend of steady increases [9]