重磅研报 持股过节 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 | 【宏观】高频半月观—数据进入"假期模式"——20260208 | | --- | | 【金融工程】持股过节——20260208 | | 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周资金面和宏观基本面弱化—— | | 20260207 | | 【固定收益】持债过节——20260208 | | 【固定收益】资金更为宽松，政府债融资将回落——流动性和机构行为 | | 跟踪——20260207 | | 【建筑材料】竣工端建材将迎来长周期拐点——20260208 | | 【电力设备】钙钛矿：迎来 GW 级量产——20260206 | 【钢铁】方大特钢（600507.SH）-成本优势明显，增长潜力突出—— 20260208 朝闻国盛 研究视点 【煤炭】印度扩产炼钢提振焦煤需求，拟加码美国进口优化供应格局— —20260208 【房地产】C-REITs 周报——双轨并行，商业不动产 REITs 密集上报—— 20260207 【计算机】新国都（300130.SZ）-年报业绩符合预期，软硬出海+港股 上市加速全球化布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the A-share market experienced a decline this week, driven primarily by a decrease in risk appetite, with a notable shift between high and low-performing stocks [1] Summary by Categories Market Overview - The overall external macro risks have been initially priced in, with a cooling of financing funds and a narrowing of net outflows from ETFs, while both domestic and foreign institutional investors have shown a net inflow against the trend [1] Structural Analysis - The report suggests that segments with floating profits, crowded trading, and significant performance verification pressures have largely completed their initial pricing, indicating that the adjustment phase may be nearing its end [1] Calendar Effect - The report notes that the calendar effect for February in the A-share market is relatively positive, recommending a gradual increase in portfolio flexibility [1] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on selecting high-beta and relatively high valuation-cost performance segments within industries experiencing a reversal in prosperity or a continuation of improvement trends, particularly in lithium battery chains, communication equipment, semiconductors, certain building materials, and chemicals [1] - For low-beta segments, attention should be given to agriculture [1] - From a mid-term perspective, it is advised to overweight the upstream sectors of the power chain, insurance, and the aerospace industry chain [1]

八部门发文，强化虚拟货币监管 日前，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部、公安部、市场监管总局、金融监管总局、中 国证监会、国家外汇管理局印发《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》，进一步防范和 处置虚拟货币、RWA代币化相关风险，明确虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动，严格监管赴境 外开展RWA代币化相关业务活动。 央行连续第15个月增持黄金 国家外汇管理局2月7日发布的数据显示，截至2026年1月末，中国黄金储备为7419万盎司，环比增加4万 盎司，为中国央行连续第15个月增持黄金。 我国成功发射可重复使用试验航天器 下周，A股将迎来春节前的最后一个交易周。业内机构认为，春节前市场或维持区间震荡，建议均衡配 置；春节后市场焦点可能重新转向具备产业催化、业绩确定性的成长板块。 大宗商品市场方面，国际金价继续宽幅震荡。在业内机构看来，尽管调整可能意味着出现布局良机，但 黄金的波动性已显著加大，投资者应将其作为资产配置的一部分，而非单一投机工具。 影响后市投资大事件 兴业证券：持股过节兼具胜率与赔率 近期全球叙事变化对市场情绪冲击最大的时刻或正逐步过去，后续事件催化增多、"春节效应"等因素， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The urgency for strategic security investments and new infrastructure in the US reflects a growing competition, balancing short-term shareholder interests with long-term strategic value [2] - China's capital market has already completed the pricing adjustment from virtual to real, currently undergoing a verification and pricing process for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - A potential "favorable timing and conditions" for a new upward cycle in the A-share market is anticipated in the coming months, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] - Historical data shows that February, especially around the Spring Festival, is a period of strong market activity, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform [3] - The recent market pullback is seen as an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the upcoming upward cycle, especially around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The global market is quickly pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Chinese government is shifting its focus towards domestic demand, which is expected to boost economic prospects [5] - The recent emphasis from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on stabilizing the capital market is expected to support a gradual recovery in the A-share market [5] - Recommendations include focusing on emerging technologies and sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and traditional manufacturing [5] Group 4 - The recent global asset adjustment is more about digesting emotions rather than fundamental changes, with a favorable environment for market recovery expected post-Spring Festival [6] - Key sectors to focus on include technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, with a particular emphasis on AI hardware and high-end manufacturing [6] - The upcoming period is expected to see increased industry catalysts and a rise in risk appetite, creating opportunities for thematic investments [6] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having value for investment, with expectations of a rebound once the liquidity shock subsides [7] - The market is expected to experience a stronger performance post-Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The rotation of investment focus is anticipated to accelerate in February, particularly towards sectors like oil, food and beverage, and construction materials [7] Group 6 - The global risk-off mode has led to a reevaluation of assets, with a focus on physical assets and a recovery in manufacturing trends [8] - Recommendations include investing in commodities like oil, copper, and lithium, as well as sectors with confirmed bottoming out in the Chinese manufacturing industry [8] - The return of capital and easing of pressure from quantitative tightening are expected to support a recovery in consumer sectors [8] Group 7 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily driven by internal factors, with external shocks having limited impact on the fundamental industry landscape [9][10] - The market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and a continuation of the spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival [10] - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, chemical industries, and power equipment, with potential catalysts from local policy signals [10] Group 8 - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a shift towards value and consumer sectors as high-valuation tech stocks face selling pressure [12] - Defensive sectors like banking and food and beverage are likely to attract investment, while growth sectors may regain focus post-Spring Festival [12] - The upcoming policy window and recovery in risk appetite are expected to shift market attention back to growth sectors with clear performance catalysts [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that public fund holdings in the construction materials sector have slightly increased but remain at a low level, with the market value of heavy holdings in the construction and materials sectors accounting for 0.42% and 0.71% of A-shares, respectively [13][14] - The concentration of holdings in the construction and materials sectors has decreased, with 47 and 23 stocks held by sample funds, representing 29% and 32% of their respective industries [12][14] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Holding Analysis - The market value of heavy holdings in the construction and materials sectors has increased slightly, with respective shares of 0.42% and 0.71% of A-shares, ranking in the 28th and 26th percentiles over the past decade [13] - The concentration of holdings in the construction and materials sectors has decreased, with 47 and 23 stocks held by sample funds, representing 29% and 32% of their respective industries [12][14] 2. Individual Stock Holdings Analysis - The top five stocks by market value in the construction sector are Jin Chengxin (2.74 billion), China Construction (1.96 billion), Honglu Steel Structure (1.20 billion), Shanghai Port (0.88 billion), and Oriental Iron Tower (0.71 billion) [2] - The top five stocks by market value in the materials sector are Oriental Yuhong (2.24 billion), Sankeshu (2.05 billion), China National Materials (1.61 billion), Conch Cement (1.37 billion), and Huaxin Materials (1.11 billion) [2]

本周各家券商策略分析师讨论的焦点在于是否持股过节，整体偏向乐观。 华西策略李立峰团队也指出，可稳步备战节后"红包"行情。 其复盘2017-2025年，万得全A春节后10个交易日平均涨幅3.3%，春节前10个交易日平均跌幅-1.3%，多数年份节后表现优于节 前。从胜率角度看，近九年万得全A春节后5个交易日、春节后10个交易日胜率分别为78%、78%，相较春节前胜率有明显抬升； 行业层面，31个申万一级行业中28个节后胜率高于节前，TMT指数在春节后5个交易日、10个交易日的胜率分别为89%、100%， 相比节前有明显提升，指向科技板块通常在节后阶段表现较好，弹性更足。 银河策略杨超团队称，A股市场上行动能仍较强，春节后上涨概率或大幅提升，"持币"虽可锁定确定性收益，但极有可能部分失 去节后上涨带来的超额收益。以2016年至2025年间历 史规律看，春节前，资金偏好向高股息、消费、防御板块集中，大盘风格表现占优，随着春节将至，A股市场逐步修复回暖，或 出现"节前躁动"；春节后，A股市场上涨概率较大，资金转向小盘风格，周期风格和成长风格表现更优。 广发策略刘晨明团队指出，目前4000点左右的位置，占据天时地利人和。 ...

由此来看，近期海外一系列不确定性因素对风险资产的冲击更多是在叙事与情绪层面，而并非基本面或 政策路径出现实质性变化，尤其是支撑春季行情的国内核心逻辑——向好的基本面、政策"开门红" 与 充裕的流动性均未发生任何改变，这也是我们看好春季行情尚未结束的核心原因。 往后看，随着前期调整释放一定风险，近期全球叙事变化对市场情绪冲击最大的时刻或正在逐步过去。 一方面，从资产表现来看，周五（2月6日）比特币、美股、中概股、贵金属等一系列风险资产企稳反 弹，表明全球风险偏好已在逐步修复；另一方面，从我们跟踪的一系列情绪指标来看，当前A股与港股 已调整出一定的性价比，尤其是我们构建的港股情绪指数已经回落至去年12月19日底部的水平，并跌穿 滚动一年均值-1.5倍标准差，显示港股已到值得重点关注的区间。 从事件催化和日历效应的角度来看，后续也将逐步进入一个有利于权益资产演绎的良好环境。事件催化 角度，下周即将进入中美宏观数据的披露窗口，国内物价、社融等数据对于基本面改善的验证值得期 待，美国非农和CPI数据也有望对货币政策预期形成校准。此外，国内外AI应用等产业层面的密集催化 也有望在春节前后集中演绎。经历近期轮动加快、主线降 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the price of ordinary electronic cloth has exceeded expectations, with significant price increases observed in recent months, suggesting a sustained high demand in the market [12][13] - Shanghai's initiative to purchase second-hand homes for rental purposes is expected to boost the supply of rental housing and stimulate the construction materials market [13][14] - The construction materials industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with potential for recovery as demand stabilizes and supply-side improvements take effect [23][25] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of ordinary electronic cloth has seen cumulative increases of 1-1.2 RMB/m due to supply-demand imbalances and rising copper prices, indicating a long-term bullish trend [12] - The Shanghai government has launched a program to acquire second-hand homes for rental purposes, focusing on small-sized units, which is anticipated to enhance the supply of rental properties and invigorate the construction materials sector [13] - Recent data shows a recovery in second-hand home transactions, with significant year-on-year increases, suggesting a potential rebound in the real estate market [14][15] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals and Company Performance - The construction materials sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with various sub-sectors like cement and fiberglass showing signs of recovery, supported by supply-side adjustments and improved market conditions [23][25] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials segment are demonstrating resilience, with improved revenue growth rates compared to the overall market, indicating strong operational capabilities [29] - Cement prices have recently decreased by 1%, but the overall market is expected to stabilize as companies implement price control measures and benefit from lower coal costs [25][26] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Three Trees, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market recovery [23][25] - In the cement industry, companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and historical performance [25][26] - The fiberglass sector is also noted for its growth potential, with leading firms like China Jushi and Zhongtai Technology expected to capitalize on increasing demand for high-end electronic cloth [26][28]

Group 1 - The recent global risk asset adjustment is primarily driven by narrative and sentiment rather than fundamental or policy changes, indicating a rebalancing of global assets and internal styles [10][25][32] - The core logic supporting the spring market remains unchanged, with positive fundamentals, favorable policies, and ample liquidity still in place [3][25][28] - The upcoming macro data releases from China and the US are expected to validate improvements in fundamentals, which could enhance market sentiment [7][28] Group 2 - The post-Spring Festival market is anticipated to favor technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, driven by an increase in risk appetite [11][32] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing (such as renewable energy and innovative pharmaceuticals), and price recovery chains (including chemicals, building materials, and steel) [14][35][38] - The AI application sector is expected to see concentrated catalysts, with its current crowding level being reasonable, making it a focal point for investment [17][38]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The 11th Senegal International Building, Renovation and Infrastructure Exhibition and the 5th Senegal International Power and New Energy Exhibition were held from February 5 to 7 in Dakar, showcasing a variety of products and solutions tailored to local needs [1] - Chinese companies displayed a strong presence, with products ranging from engineering vehicles and building materials to power distribution equipment and smart metering [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Hangzhou Haixing Electric Power Technology Co., Ltd. has established a significant market share in Senegal's residential electricity metering sector and has partnered with local distribution companies to localize production [1] - China Liansu Group has set up production bases in multiple countries, including Tanzania and Angola, to better respond to local demands [2] - Shandong Hongtai Metal Technology Co., Ltd. plans to establish a factory in Africa to shorten logistics distances and better serve local customers [2] Group 3: Market Reception - Senegalese companies have positively responded to Chinese suppliers, appreciating their ability to provide tailored solutions based on budget and quality [2] - The acceptance of Chinese heavy-duty vehicles in Senegal has increased, with Chinese brands capturing nearly 60% of the local market share for large vehicles [2] - The establishment of after-sales services, including maintenance workshops and training for local drivers, is seen as essential for long-term customer relationships [3]