Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not rated - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated - Caustic Soda: Not rated - PX: Not rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: Not rated - Bottle Chip: Not rated - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin and polyolefin futures contracts showed different trends. The olefin futures declined, while the polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, putting pressure on prices [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had their own characteristics. The pure benzene market was expected to improve in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. The styrene market had cost support but limited unilateral drive [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA had different price trends, and the polyester industry was expected to increase its load. Ethylene glycol was in short - term low - level oscillation, and short - fiber was recommended for long - term configuration [4]. - The methanol market was in a weak trend, and the urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment [5]. - The PVC market was weak, and the caustic soda market had short - term support but long - term supply pressure [6]. - The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the glass market was expected to be near the cost line [7]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures: The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. There were both start - up and shutdown plans for devices. The inventory pressure of producers was relatively controllable, and the downstream demand was general [2]. - Polyolefin futures: The main contracts of polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply of polyethylene decreased slightly, and the demand improvement was limited. The supply of polypropylene was expected to increase, and the demand was weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The pure benzene market was expected to improve seasonally in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. It was recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3]. - Styrene: The styrene market had cost support, but the unilateral drive was limited. The domestic production was expected to increase [3]. Polyester - PX - PTA: The price of PX increased slightly, and the PX - PTA spread shrank. The polyester industry was expected to increase its load, and the PX supply - demand was expected to improve [4]. - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol price was above 4400 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and it was in short - term low - level oscillation [4]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was recommended for long - term configuration and monthly spread positive arbitrage [4]. - Bottle chip: The bottle - chip processing spread oscillated at a low level, and over - capacity limited the repair space [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The methanol market continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to reach a historical high in the third - quarter end [5]. - Urea: The urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment. The supply - demand was loose in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The PVC market was weak. The export competition pressure increased, the supply was high, and the demand was insufficient [6]. - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market had short - term support from replenishment demand but long - term supply pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price was under pressure [7]. - Glass: The glass market was expected to be near the cost line, and the short - term real - world trading was weak [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Urea - The short - term rebound of the urea futures is mainly driven by the export expectation on the demand side, with the co - existence of the lag in export policy implementation and the time constraint of Indian tenders. The secondary driver is the weak support from the increase in compound fertilizer production to industrial demand. However, the overall high supply situation remains unchanged. In the future, it is necessary to track the winning bids of Indian tenders and August export volume. If the export fails to meet expectations, the domestic supply pressure will drag down the futures price. It is recommended to maintain a band - trading strategy [33]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated. The main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risks and supply - side uncertainties. Geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term, while the supply increase from OPEC+ suppresses the upside potential. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path affects market risk appetite. Geopolitical factors are the core variables for short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, expand the spreads between October - November/December contracts, and capture opportunities in volatility contraction in the options market [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. In August, PTA plants had many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing margins, so the PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. However, with the approaching traditional peak season and new PTA plant commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited. For other products in the polyester industry chain, their prices and processing margins are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the demand has improved recently, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas is expected to rise in August, which will limit the rebound. For PVC, the supply pressure is large due to the release of new capacity, while the downstream demand remains weak, so it is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for the price. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the price increase is limited. For styrene, the supply is high in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve as some plants plan to shut down for maintenance and export expectations increase. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound is restricted by high inventory and limited oil - price support [48]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE and PP, on the supply side, PP maintenance is decreasing, PE maintenance is increasing in mid - to - late August, imports are low, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation in August - September. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates are low, but there is potential for restocking as the peak season approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to close short positions around 7000 for the previous short - selling strategy on LLDPE and continue to hold the LP01 spread [53]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant supply pressure, with high production and imports in August - September, and the port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The traditional demand is weak, and the low profit of downstream industries restricts the operating rate. The MTO profit has recovered, and attention should be paid to the start - up of a certain MTO plant at the port from late August to early September. The 09 contract is expected to see strong inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - rationing expectations [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 18, the 01 contract closed at 1754 yuan/ton (+0.98% compared to August 15), the 05 contract at 1790 yuan/ton (+0.39%), the 09 contract at 1731 yuan/ton (+0.58%), and the main contract at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [28]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton on August 18 (+21.74% compared to August 15), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 59 yuan/ton (-4.84%), the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was - 23 yuan/ton (-43.75%), and the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was 665 yuan/ton (+3.76%) [29]. - **Positions**: On August 18, the long - position of the top 20 was 101,968 (-0.89% compared to August 15), the short - position of the top 20 was 123,878 (+3.00%), the long - to - short ratio was 0.82 (-3.77%), the unilateral trading volume was 167,760 (+53.80%), and the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts was 3,573 (unchanged) [30]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng and power coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged. The price of power coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.29%, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 2.75%. The estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry processes remained unchanged [31]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong increased by 1.76%, 1.16%, and 0.53% respectively, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged. The FOB prices in China and the US Gulf also remained unchanged [32]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi changed by - 50%, - 7%, and 4% respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong changed by 35.14%, 17.65%, and - 5.26% respectively, while the basis in Shanxi decreased by 13.39% [33]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine in Shandong and 45% S/CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged, and the compound - fertilizer to urea ratio decreased by 1.15% [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production decreased by 0.78%, the coal - based urea production decreased by 0.99%, and the small - sized urea production decreased by 0.95%. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 1.51%, the weekly maintenance loss decreased by 4.48%, the factory inventory increased by 7.86%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.93%. The number of production - enterprise order days decreased by 3.68% [33]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, Brent crude was at $66.60/barrel (+1.14% compared to August 18), WTI at $63.35/barrel (-0.11%), and SC at 485.20 yuan/barrel (-0.76%). The spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was at 209.95 cents/gallon (+0.04%), NYM ULSD at 224.62 cents/gallon (+0.26%), and ICE Gasoil at $645.50/ton (-1.68%). The spreads of RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 also changed [35]. - **Refined - Product Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 19 compared to August 18 [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and other products changed slightly on August 18 compared to August 15. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also changed [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The CFR China PX price was $828/ton on August 18 (+0.6% compared to August 15), and the PX - related spreads also changed [40]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA East - China spot price was 4670 yuan/ton on August 18 (+0.2% compared to August 15), and the PTA - related spreads also changed [40]. - **MEG Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: The MEG port inventory was 547,000 tons on August 18 (-1.1% compared to August 11), and the expected arrival volume was 54,000 tons (-8.7% compared to the previous period) [40]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products, changed to varying degrees from August 8 to August 15 [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: On August 18, the prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda increased by 2.4% and 0.8% respectively. The prices of East - China calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased by 1.0% and remained unchanged respectively. The SH2509 contract increased by 1.1%, and the SH2601 contract decreased by 0.1%. The SH basis increased by 146.8% [45]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East - China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 42.3% [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast - Asia and CFR India prices of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 48.9% [45]. - **Supply - Side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 2.0%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.4%. The profit of externally - sourced calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 3.7%, and the Northwest integrated profit decreased by 5.1% [45]. - **Demand - Side Indicators**: The operating rates of caustic - soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing increased. The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles also changed [45]. - **Inventory Indicators**: The East - China caustic - soda factory inventory increased by 6.6%, the Shandong caustic - soda inventory increased by 1.6%, the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.1%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.5% [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the Brent crude (October) was $66.60/barrel (+1.1% compared to August 15), the WTI crude (September) was $63.42/barrel (+1.0%), and the CFR Japan naphtha price was $571/ton (-0.3%). The pure - benzene - related prices and spreads also changed [48]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East - China styrene spot price was 7290 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.1% compared to August 15), and the styrene - related spreads also changed [48]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, and ABS changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [48]. - **Inventory**: The Jiangsu port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 1.4%, and the Jiangsu port inventory of styrene increased by 8.5% [48]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industry chain, such as Asian pure - benzene, domestic hydro - benzene, and downstream products, changed from August 8 to August 15 [48]. Polyolefins - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the L2601 contract closed at 7334 yuan/ton (-0.23% compared to August 15), the L2509 contract at 7292 yuan/ton (-0.19%), the PP2601 contract at 7048 yuan/ton (-0.51%), and the PP2509 contract at 7026 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed [53]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The East - China PP raffia spot price was 6960 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.29% compared to August 15), and the North - China LDPE film - grade spot price was 7210 yuan/ton (-0.14%). The basis of North - China plastics remained unchanged, and the East - China PP basis increased by 14.29% [53]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of East - China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, PP injection, PP fiber, and PP low - melt co - polymer changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [53]. - **PE and PP Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.47%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%, the PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1%, and the PP downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.3% [53]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 13.76%, the PE social inventory decreased by 1.23%, the PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.07%, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 4.06% [53]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the MA2601 contract closed at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66% compared to August 15), the MA2509 contract at 2293 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the MA91 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-7.29%). The basis and regional spreads also changed [56]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% on August 18 (+0.64% compared to the previous period), and the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (+10.41%) [56]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 72.63% on August 18 (-0.74% compared to the previous period), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.92% (+0.68%), and the operating rates of other downstream industries also changed [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

"不断完善的PTA保税交割制度，降低了境外企业的参与成本，吸引了更多境外产业企业参与PTA期货 交易。这既为国内供应商拓宽了国际市场，也为境外参与者提供了便捷的交割渠道，促进了国内外企业 的交流合作。"徐际恩说。 在浙江万凯新材（301216）料股份有限公司（以下简称万凯新材料）副总经理陈灿忠看来，郑商所的出 口型保税交割制度意义重大。该制度允许企业用保税仓单进行交割，无需完成全部完税流程，不仅提升 了交付效率，还方便企业灵活调整交割方式与仓储布局。 以万凯新材料与某南美客户的合作为例，一套成熟的合作闭环已然形成：南美客户下达采购订单后，万 凯新材料参考郑州期货价格报价，同时根据订单量锁定原料价格，再结合订单安排生产、对接海关完成 出口；货款采用"20%定金+80%见提单支付"模式，确保结算顺畅。 据了解，2025年9月，逸盛石化旗下子公司逸盛大化与ITG的首单PTA保税交割将正式落地。通过滚动交 割模式，货物从工厂直达保税仓库，境外买方凭仓单即可提货。这张被喻为中国PTA"国际通行证"的仓 单，不仅让货物跨境流动更便捷，更像一把钥匙，打开了中国期货市场与全球产业链深度融合的大门， 使"郑州价格"借助市场化规 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies with sellers as the main focus, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy and chemical futures contracts are presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of the crude oil SC2510 contract is 484, with a decrease of 5 and a decline rate of -0.98% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy and chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.62, with a change of -0.04, and the open interest PCR is 0.75, with a change of 0.03 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy and chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 600, and the support level is 490 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy and chemical options is presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.47, and the weighted implied volatility is 30.44, with a change of 0.21 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation of crude oil involves OPEC+ production adjustments and Russian production cuts. The market shows a short - term upward受阻 and downward - trending pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the market shows a short - term bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory of methanol is increasing, and the market shows a weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is accumulating, and the market shows a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation of polypropylene shows different trends in production enterprises and traders. The market shows a weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The operating rates of tires show different trends. The market shows a short - term weak upward - pressured trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [11] 3.5.5 Polyester Options - **PTA**: The overall social inventory of PTA is increasing, and the market shows a weak - oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.6 Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda shows different trends in different regions. The market shows a short - term bullish rebound pattern. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory of soda ash is increasing, and the market shows an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.7 Urea Options - The port inventory of urea is decreasing, while the enterprise inventory is increasing. The market shows a low - level oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol has been mainly fluctuating within a range. The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). Overall, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is basically balanced, lacking obvious drivers, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. - The prices of PX - PTA have been maintaining a range - bound consolidation. The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee has been at a historical low. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of PX - PTA is not significant, mainly following the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, the structural contradiction between PX and PTA needs to be alleviated through additional PTA maintenance. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee on dips [5][6]. Summary by Directory MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports has reached 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 3 tons [1][2]. - **Device**: Sheng Hong's 1.9 million - ton device restarted after a short - term shutdown; Zhe Petrochemical's Phase II Line 1 with a capacity of 800,000 tons restarted and produced; Shenhua Yulin's 400,000 - ton device reduced its load for maintenance. Overseas, Saudi Sharq3's 550,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). The terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [2]. PX - TA - **PX**: Some PX devices have increased their loads, with the load rising to 84.3% (+2.3%). The subsequent supply is expected to increase, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. The PXN has shrunk to 253 (-8), and the PX - MX has recovered to 119.5 (+3) [5]. - **PTA**: The supply and demand of PTA lack obvious drivers, and the price has been fluctuating within a range. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has been at a low level, and there is a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in August. The demand side has seen an increase in the polyester load, and the terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [5][6]. Polyester - **Price and Profit**: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY have increased, while the prices of staple fibers, chips, and bottle chips have decreased slightly. The processing fees of filaments and bottle chips have been repaired [10]. - **Load**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%), and the loads of filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips have also increased to varying degrees [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of filaments has decreased, while the inventory of staple fibers has increased slightly. The inventory of bottle chips has remained stable [10]. Device Operation - **MEG Device**: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load - adjustments. Overseas, many MEG devices have also been shut down or are under maintenance [16]. - **PX Device**: Some PX devices in the Chinese mainland and overseas have been shut down for maintenance, and some have restarted [17]. - **PTA Device**: Some PTA devices in the Chinese mainland have been shut down, reduced their loads, or restarted [18]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, supply, demand, and inventory data of MEG from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **PX - TA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, supply, consumption, and inventory data of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025 [14].

Group 1 - The first PTA bonded delivery by Yisheng Petrochemical's subsidiary Yisheng Dahua and ITG is set to take place in September 2025, facilitating smoother cross-border transactions and integrating the Zhengzhou futures market with the global industrial chain [1] - The introduction of the export-type bonded delivery system by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has significantly reduced participation costs for foreign enterprises, attracting more international players to engage in PTA futures trading [2][4] - As of the end of 2024, over 700 foreign traders from more than 30 countries and regions have opened accounts to participate in specific trading at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, indicating a growing international interest [3] Group 2 - The PTA futures market has enhanced the international trade experience for companies by providing benchmark pricing, improving negotiation power, and ensuring efficient and transparent international deliveries [2] - Companies like Wan Kai New Materials have established a mature cooperation loop with South American clients, utilizing the Zhengzhou futures prices to lock in raw material costs and streamline export processes [2] - The growth of foreign participation in the PTA market has not only increased trading volumes but also reshaped the market ecosystem, leading to a more stable polyester market [3] Group 3 - The futures market has enabled Chinese companies to expand internationally, with firms like Wan Kai New Materials and Xiamen Guomao Petrochemical significantly increasing their production capacities and export volumes since 2018 [4][6] - The introduction of futures tools has allowed companies to manage risks across the entire supply chain, as seen with New Fengming Group's expansion in polyester production and export [5] - Yisheng Petrochemical has grown from a PTA producer with a capacity of 12.2 million tons to the world's largest with a capacity of 21.9 million tons, highlighting the transformative impact of futures trading on business models [6] Group 4 - The future outlook for the Zhengzhou futures market includes the expectation of incorporating more varieties and delivery points into the international framework, promoting global industrial chain collaboration [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (anticipated upward trend, with clear long - term investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows diversified trends, with different products having different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by supply changes, some by demand fluctuations, and some by both. Market participants need to pay attention to the fundamentals of different products and make investment decisions based on specific circumstances [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average, closing below it. Supply increased, demand was weak, and prices were under pressure [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow fluctuations. PE production enterprises were inclined to raise prices due to increased demand and macro - economic support. PP faced supply pressure and weak market sentiment [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated narrowly, with improved fundamentals but potential pressure in the fourth quarter. It was recommended to operate on the spread between months [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly. Production increased, port inventory decreased slightly, but there was no strong upward price drive [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded from lows. Terminal demand was expected to increase, and attention should be paid to oil prices and demand trends [5] - Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated weakly. Supply increased slightly, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5] - Short - fiber production increased, with stable supply - demand and weak processing margins. It was recommended to consider a long - position configuration in the medium term [5] - Bottle - chip processing margins oscillated at a low level, and over - capacity limited the margin repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Import volume was high, port inventory increased, and inland production was relatively strong. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream restocking [6] - Urea prices oscillated at a low level. Supply was relatively abundant, demand was weak, and the market was likely to continue to oscillate without new positive factors [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was in a weak trend. Supply was stable, demand was average, and inventory increased. Prices were expected to oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda was strong. Supply decreased slightly, demand for replenishment increased, and prices were expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited long - term increase [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated greatly. Supply increased, demand improved slightly, and the market was in an oversupply situation. Cautious operation was recommended [8] - Glass was in a weak trend. Production was affected by the parade, inventory might increase, and prices were expected to be difficult to break previous lows [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term: The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall driving force is still limited; the market will follow the crude oil price fluctuations in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the risk of price reversals [25] - Medium - to long - term: The polyester sector as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the low - level range, waiting for the demand to pick up [26] Group 4: Macro and Crude Oil News - IEA expects that this year's global crude oil supply surplus will exceed previous expectations, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. Global crude oil supply will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year [4] - The US - Russia presidential meeting is scheduled for 03:30 am Beijing time on Saturday. Trump said there is a 25% probability that the meeting will be unsuccessful, and he will promote sanctions against Russia if the talks go poorly [4] - EIA predicts that US oil production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, but production will decline in 2026 due to falling oil prices. Brent crude will average $51 per barrel next year, lower than last month's forecast [4] - OPEC raises the forecast of global oil demand for next year and lowers the forecast of supply growth from non - OPEC+ countries, indicating a tighter market outlook. Global oil demand will grow by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day [4] - As of the week ending August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714,000 barrels [4] - Traders fully price in a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in September. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.3%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 5.7% [5] Group 5: Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.22% week - on - week, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [7] - PX511 decreased by 1.61% week - on - week, and PX CFR: Taiwan Province decreased by 1.88% [7] - TA601 decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, and PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.83% [7] - EG509 decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased by 0.22% [7] - PF510 decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.62% [7] - PR511 decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.84% [7] - PX basis decreased by 11.83% week - on - week, PTA basis decreased by 51.22%, ethylene glycol basis increased by 24.05%, short - fiber basis increased by 14.29%, and polyester bottle - chip basis remained unchanged [7] Group 6: Supply Analysis - PX: Weilian Chemical's 1 - million - ton device restarted, and some devices are under maintenance. As of August 15, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 82.67%, and the weekly output is 693,300 tons. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 72.03%. Next week, PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11] - PTA: Hailun Petrochemical was put into production this week, and some devices restarted. As of August 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.01%, and the weekly output is 1.3841 million tons. PTA continued to destock this week. Next week, domestic supply is expected to increase [12] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic ethylene glycol supply decreased slightly this week. As of August 15, the domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 61.10%. Port inventory increased this week. Next week, total supply is expected to increase, and ports may continue to accumulate inventory [13] Group 7: Demand Analysis - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate is 86.35%, a 0.14 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [14] - Polyester inventory: Polyester filament and staple fiber destocked this week [17] - Terminal: As of August 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 58.07%, an increase of 2.29 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises are 8.34 days, an increase of 1.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days are 29.96 days, a decrease of 1.03 days [23] Group 8: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall driving force is still limited; follow the crude oil price fluctuations in the short - term and beware of price reversals [25] - Medium - to long - term: The polyester sector as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the low - level range, waiting for the demand to pick up [26] - Next week's focus: US - Russia meeting, US tariff policy, macro - market sentiment, EIA weekly inventory data, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices [26]

中证报中证网讯(记者马爽)8月19日至20日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的 2025中国(郑州)国际期货论坛将在郑州举行。其中，8月20日下午将同时举行农产品(油脂油料)分论坛和 工业品(聚酯)分论坛，两场主题分别为"期货市场助力油脂油料行业应对贸易变局"和"期货市场助力聚酯 产业走向国际"，活动将邀请中国植物油行业协会、中国化学（601117）纤维工业协会相关负责人以及 产业企业、金融机构专家，共同探讨新型贸易格局下油脂油料、聚酯产业的热点话题。 刘德伟表示，期待以今年工业品(聚酯)分论坛为契机，进一步深化与聚酯产业链国际客商的合作，也期 待推动我国聚酯产业链期货品种在主要出口目的地设立境外交割库的进程。 对于聚酯行业，厦门国贸（600755）石化有限公司总经理刘德伟表示："生产型企业可利用期货及衍生 品工具高效管理生产、加工成本波动风险，减少原料采购和产品库存因价格波动而带来的损失。以PTA 期货这样的国际化品种为例，境内企业可以与境外客户共同利用该工具锁定产业链加工利润，提升全球 贸易链的整体竞争力。" 益海嘉里粮食业务部花生业务总监郭立君表示，今年农产品(油脂油料)分论坛所设的议题 ...