据CME"美联储观察"：美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为96.4%，降息50个基点的概率为3.6%。美联储 10月累计降息25个基点的概率为16.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.0%，累计降息75个基点的概率 为3.0%。 特朗普再度敦促美上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克 9月12日，商务部新闻发言人就中美在西班牙举行会谈事答记者问时表示，经中美双方商定，中共中央 政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于9月14日至17日率团赴西班牙与美方举行会谈。双方将讨论美单 边关税措施、滥用出口管制及TikTok等经贸问题。据新华社报道，当地时间9月14日，中美双方在西班 牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。 本周迎来"超级央行周"。美国、日本、英国、加拿大央行将公布利率决议。巴西、南非、挪威央行也将 公布最新政策利率。美联储主席、日本央行行长将于利率决议之后举行货币政策发布会。 美联储将公布9月利率决议 北京时间周四（9月18日）凌晨，美联储将公布9月利率决议结果，目前市场预计其会降息25个基点。如 果结果符合预期，那么预计市场会将焦点转向美联储未来的利率路径上，特别是最新的经济预期、"点 阵图"和美联储主席鲍威尔随后的新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The demand expectation still provides support, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to the high - level maintenance of both supply and demand, and sufficient pricing of macro - level positive factors, along with seasonal demand support from steel mills [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Weekly Viewpoint - The supply side shows that Brazilian Vale's shipments have significantly declined due to port maintenance, and non - mainstream shipments are also weak; the demand side indicates that blast furnace operations have quickly recovered, and the raw material demand expectation remains strong; macro - level factors suggest that the market may have fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation, and there is still some macro support for commodity valuations. Overall, the iron ore price may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 799.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 543,000 lots (an increase of 41,800 lots). The average daily trading volume was 345,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices were relatively strong, but the price increase of medium - grade PB powder was relatively narrow. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased from 900 to 920 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder increased from 782 to 794 yuan/ton [11] Iron Ore Supply Side Mainstream Mines - Brazilian port maintenance led to a sharp drop in shipments, and mainstream shipments declined. For example, Brazil's weekly shipments decreased by 509.1 million tons compared to the previous week, and Australia's decreased by 320 million tons [4] Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream shipments also had a phased decline [20] Domestic Mines - The operation in North China has recovered, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has been revised upwards [26] Iron Ore Demand Side Downstream - Pig iron production has rapidly recovered, and the port's imported iron ore clearance volume may increase seasonally, with expectations of downstream restocking demand [29] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - Scrap steel arrivals increased again on a week - on - week basis. The scrap - pig iron price difference stopped falling after reaching a recent low [30] Iron Ore Inventory - The port inventory level has been relatively stable recently [32][34] Downstream Profits - Downstream operations have quickly recovered, and profits are oscillating at a low level [37] Spot Category Price Difference - The price of medium - grade PB powder has been relatively weak. The high - medium grade price difference has continued to strengthen, and the medium - low grade price difference has continued to narrow [39][40] Futures Contract Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread reached a phased high (24.5) and then declined [44] Basis Performance - Both futures and spot prices were strong, and the overall basis level has been relatively stable [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances affect the black sector. In the industrial aspect, the decline in iron ore shipments and the increase in molten iron production boost the spot demand. The expectation of stockpiling before the National Day holiday may support the iron ore futures and spot prices to run strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 785 for the I2601 contract and control the operation rhythm and risks. Also, it is suggested to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [8][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 799.5 (+10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 848 (+11) yuan/dry ton [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2329.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 572.5 million tons [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2572.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2448.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1320.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.2 million tons [6] - The average daily molten iron production was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [6] - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1632.42 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8993.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53.18 million tons [6] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [6] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August only increased by 22,000, far below the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Mexico plans to raise the import tariff rates of about 1400 tariff items such as automobiles, toys, steel, textiles and plastics to 10% - 50% for countries including China that have not signed free - trade agreements with Mexico. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the next - stage work focus, promoting capacity management in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries [8] - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, while the domestic port inventory continued to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron production returned above 2.4 million tons [8] - Technical aspect: The center of gravity of the iron ore I2601 contract moved up, the daily K - line moving average combination was in a long arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis, and the red column was stable [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price fluctuated strongly. The I2601 contract was weaker than the I2605 contract, and the spread on the 12th was 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton [14] - On September 12, the iron ore warehouse receipt volume at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 34074 lots, an increase of 9065 lots compared with the previous week [22] - On September 12, the 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 572.5 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 72.1 million tons week - on - week [31] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 30.40 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume increased by 14.06 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 65.51 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 101.26 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 27.85 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 53.18 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills increased by 15.98 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 1.53 days [34] - As of September 11, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On September 11, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2111, a week - on - week increase of 132 [39] - In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 60.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%; the average daily fine powder production was 382,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,000 tons; the inventory was 341,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 129,000 tons [42] - In July 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 86.325 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 595.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The fine iron powder output of 433 domestic iron mines in July was 23.119 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 185,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 326,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel import was 3.977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [49] - On September 12, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.20 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 171,700 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - With the significant recovery of molten iron production, the spot demand for iron ore increases. The expectation of steel mills to stockpile before the National Day holiday may support the strong operation of ore prices. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

Economic Indicators - The US August CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%[5] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose by 2.9%, up from the previous 2.7%[5] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, marking the highest level in nearly four years, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve[5][29] Market Performance - US stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones rising 617 points (1.36%) to close at 46,108 points, marking its first time above 46,000 points[9] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw gains of 0.85% and 0.72%, respectively[9] - A-shares experienced significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.65% to 3,875 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 3.36%[16] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices fell by 2%, with WTI crude closing at $62.37 per barrel due to concerns over OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply[26] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 97.53, reflecting market sentiment towards potential rate cuts[26] - Gold prices slightly declined, with NYMEX gold closing at $3,645.0 per ounce, down 0.2%[26] Sector Highlights - Oracle's (ORCL US) earnings report positively impacted the tech sector, with its cloud infrastructure revenue growing by 55% year-on-year[7] - In the A-share market, technology stocks surged, with some companies in the computing power supply chain seeing increases of over 20%[16] - The healthcare sector faced pressure due to potential regulatory changes, with stocks like Songli Pharmaceutical dropping nearly 20%[11] Bond Market Insights - The US Treasury yield curve flattened, with the 30-year bond auction showing robust demand, indicating market confidence in long-term bonds[29] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 4.02%[29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season without signs of recovery. There is an expected increase in apparent demand during the peak season from August to September, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Steel supply - demand has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Steel prices will follow the expected changes in the coking coal supply side. For the January contract, pay attention to the support level of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease. Steel mill profit margins have slightly declined, but after major events, iron ore production will increase this week, and steel mills' replenishment demand will rise. It is expected that supply and demand will increase simultaneously this week. Port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. Due to high steel mill profitability, iron ore production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and low port inventory provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke Industry**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile decline, with intense price fluctuations. Spot auction prices were stable to weak, and Mongolian coal quotes were weak. Domestic coking coal auctions have weakened, and downstream procurement willingness has decreased. After the lifting of production restrictions, coal mines in major producing areas are resuming production, and market supply - demand has eased. Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and after the first round of price cuts in coke spot, it remained stable. The supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. For both coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with a volatile view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contract prices also declined [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel product costs and profits changed, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increasing by 1 yuan, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20 yuan [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0 (a 4.6% decline), and the production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7 (a 2.7% decline) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7 (a 2.2% increase), and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 (an 8.3% decline), and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8 (a 3.5% decline) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 (a 3.6% increase), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 (a 5.6% decrease) [3] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0 (a 3.1% decline), and the global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2 (a 22.5% decline) [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 (a 4.2% decline) [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 24.3 to 13849.65 (a 0.2% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 6686.8 (a 0.7% decline) [3] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal and Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and coking coal futures showed a volatile decline. The first - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and coking coal spot auction prices are stable to weak [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline), and the raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 817.3 (a 5.0% decline) [5] Demand - The weekly iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline) [5] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased. Coking coal inventory in coal mines, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased, while port and border - crossing inventory increased slightly [5]

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明, 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可你的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供�考，报告中的信息或所靠达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者撰此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月11日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) ...

2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...