Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) is experiencing positive performance, with significant gains in key component stocks, indicating a favorable market environment for technology investments in Hong Kong [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 10, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) increased by 0.10%, with notable gains in component stocks such as InnoCare Pharma rising nearly 6% and BYD Electronics and Sunny Optical Technology rising nearly 5% [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 1.88% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 24.4556 million [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the ETF reached 315 million [1]. Group 2: Index Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) saw an intraday increase of 0.49%, outperforming other indices such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet and Technology indices [1]. - The latest market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF stands at 1.295 billion [1]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The HSSCITI's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 21.08, which is in the 0.75 percentile over the past year, indicating that the valuation is lower than 99.25% of the time in the last year, suggesting a historical low [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of July 8, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCITI include Kuaishou-W, SMIC, Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, Lenovo Group, Bilibili-W, Sunny Optical Technology, and Kingdee International, collectively accounting for 75.36% of the index [2]. - Notably, the combined weight of leading AI companies Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30%, alongside core "hard tech" stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, forming a concentrated group of technology leaders [2]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - According to GF Securities, the premium center of China's technology industry is expected to continue rising, with significant excess returns observed in Hong Kong's technology sector since 2005 [2]. - The technology sector has shown high elasticity and sustainability during various market cycles, with each increase in technology premium closely linked to industrial transformations, typically occurring in approximately five-year cycles [2]. - Current core industries in technology are entering a localization phase, with new productivity sectors such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy receiving policy support [2].

Group 1 - The core event was the simultaneous listing of five mainland companies and one ETF on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant moment for the market [1][2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown resilience and vitality, with over 200 companies currently in the IPO queue, indicating a potential for more simultaneous listings in the future [1][3] - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong completed 42 IPOs, raising over HKD 107 billion, a 22% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, making it the leading global market for IPOs [3][4] Group 2 - The active performance of the IPO market is attributed to ongoing reforms by regulatory bodies and improved valuations and liquidity in the Hong Kong market [4] - Deloitte forecasts that by 2025, there will be 80 new listings in Hong Kong, raising HKD 200 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates [4] - Southbound capital has been a positive factor for liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with net inflows reaching HKD 211.26 billion in just five trading days in July [4][5] Group 3 - The secondary market's activity is a key driver for attracting companies to list in Hong Kong, although there has been a recent slowdown in the upward momentum of major indices [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on technology, consumer, and high-dividend opportunities in the Hong Kong market, with a particular emphasis on the pharmaceutical and discretionary consumption sectors [6]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides analysis and trading strategies for financial and commodity futures and options, suggesting that the stock index is in a bullish cycle and the bond market is expected to strengthen, while the black and building materials sectors are expected to stop falling and stabilize. Summary by Directory Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Oscillating with a bullish bias - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2507 - **Core Logic**: Support policies are continuously implemented, overseas tariff risks are rising, the technical form shows a potential upward trend, and market risk appetite is increasing [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds are bullish - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - position approach for T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Inter - bank liquidity is loose, and there is an increasing expectation of policy support due to weak fundamentals [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector** - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil - **Intraday View**: Short - term shift between long and short positions, with weakening downward drivers - **Medium - term View**: Stop falling and stabilize - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in the call option RB2510 - C - 3000 and adopt a short - position strategy for the RB2510 straddle option (range: 2900 - 3200) - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure on steel raw materials is expected to ease, reducing the potential supply pressure on finished steel products [5]

Market Overview - On July 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.02%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.43%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.66%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.21%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.12% [4]. - The best-performing industries on July 7 were comprehensive (+2.57%), utilities (+1.87%), real estate (+1.68%), light industry manufacturing (+1.52%), and environmental protection (+1.1%). The worst-performing industries included coal (-2.04%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.97%), telecommunications (-0.77%), home appliances (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.67%) [4]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 7 was 1,227.1 billion yuan, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 12.067 billion Hong Kong dollars [4]. Key Insights Light Industry Manufacturing - The report emphasizes a trend in consumer growth industries, advocating for a balanced investment in value stocks [5]. - The market outlook indicates that the first half of 2025 saw insufficient national subsidies and weak overall consumption, leading to a structural growth in "new" consumption [5]. - The underlying logic of "new" consumption is attributed to generational shifts and changes in consumer attitudes during the economic transition period. Despite full pricing, mid-term performance growth is expected to digest valuations, making the second half of the year a clear investment focus for the sector [5]. - Key drivers include the sustained prosperity of new consumption and the performance turning point for traditional consumption [5]. - Recommendations include focusing on growth in consumer experience and prioritizing quality manufacturing stocks that have solidified their bottom lines [5]. Strategy Insights - The report projects that in Q3 2025, the domestic equity market may be dominated by local factors, suggesting banks as a stable investment while recommending balanced allocations in brokerage, military industry, and TMT sectors [6]. - The report notes a potential slowdown in the global trend of "de-dollarization" and emphasizes the need for rebalancing in dollar asset allocations. It suggests that U.S. stocks may show resilience beyond expectations, although caution is advised regarding potential inflationary pressures [6]. - Key factors to monitor include the expiration of the 90-day tariff exemption on China by the U.S. in mid-August and the earnings reports of U.S. stocks for Q2 2025 [7]. - The report highlights that the current dollar is likely entering a prolonged downtrend, with U.S. Treasury rates expected to remain high and volatile in Q3 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Appropriate realization and waiting for layout opportunities. Currently, the convertible bond market is facing supply - demand contradictions and high valuations. In the context of potential increased volatility in the equity market, convertible bonds may face valuation adjustment pressure. Short - term investment should focus on large - cap debt - biased varieties, avoid bonds with overly high downward - revision expectations, realize profits appropriately, maintain a flexible position, and wait for the next layout opportunity [2][45]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Appropriate Realization, Waiting for Layout Opportunities - **Market Performance in Q2**: The equity market showed a deep "V" trend in Q2. The convertible bond index rose 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. The low - price index rose 2.7%, and the equal - weighted index rose over 4% [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: In Q2, convertible bond supply accelerated, with 11 new issues and a scale of 8 billion yuan. However, due to maturities and forced redemptions, the total scale decreased by over 55 billion yuan compared to Q1. The short - term supply supplement is limited. On the demand side, it first decreased and then increased. In June, there was a large - scale capital inflow [13][21]. - **Valuation Analysis**: The valuation of balanced convertible bonds rose significantly at the end of June, breaking through the annual high. The valuation of debt - biased convertible bonds reached a historical high, while the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds remained at a low level [39][40]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Equity Market: Index Continued to Rise Strongly - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rose 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The market trading volume rebounded, and the theme hotspots rotated actively [47]. - **Style and Sector Performance**: Industries such as steel and building materials led the rise, while the banking sector reached a new high for the year. Some sectors such as computer and non - bank finance declined [47]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of all A - shares was 15.76X, and the PE (TTM) of the ChiNext was 36.38X, both showing an upward trend [48]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Market: Valuation Continued to Rise - **Index and Trading Volume**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 447.46, rising 1.21%. The average daily trading volume was 64.766 billion yuan, a 11.85% increase from the previous period [54]. - **Individual Bond Performance**: Dianhua, Saili, and Anke led the gains, while Jinji, Sanyang, and Jingduan led the losses [54]. - **Valuation**: The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity of 90 - 110 was 26.42%, and the average YTM of convertible bonds with a parity below 80 was - 0.27%, indicating a significant increase in valuation [56]. 3. Convertible Bond Investment Strategy 3.1 Stock Market - In the short term, the external uncertainty has increased significantly, and the index volatility may intensify. The broad - based index will be in a volatile state, and investors can focus on sectors such as innovative drugs, self - controllability, AI +, and solid - state batteries, as well as industries with improved prosperity [3]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds - The overall view is neutral and cautious, preferring structural individual bond opportunities. Specific areas to focus on include TMT, robotics, low - altitude areas, innovative drugs, debt - resolution directions, price - rising cyclical sectors, bottom - position bonds, and newly - listed bonds [4]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - Last week, 2 new convertible bonds were issued, 1 convertible bond was approved by the shareholders' meeting, and 1 convertible bond issuance was accepted by the exchange [5][68].

Core Insights - Strong demand from technology companies is driving the recovery of Beijing's office market [1] - The overall new leasing transaction area in Beijing increased by 33% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The net absorption of office space in Beijing reached 255,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 110% [2] Supply and Demand - Two new projects delivered in Q2 added 148,000 square meters of office space, contributing to a total of 180,000 square meters of new supply in the first half, achieving 83% of the annual target [1] - The vacancy rate for Beijing's office market decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 20.2% in the first half of the year [3] - The vacancy rate in key technology districts like Zhongguancun dropped to single digits at 8.9% [3] Rental Trends - Average rental prices in Beijing's office market decreased by 5.5% to 241.7 yuan per square meter per month [3] - The competition among landlords remains intense due to the overall supply still being ample compared to the recovery speed of demand [3] - The government’s recent initiatives to optimize the business environment are expected to positively impact demand from headquarters, R&D, and foreign investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the GF Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed ETF (code: 159262) provides an efficient tool for investors to access core technology assets in the Hong Kong stock market, with a fundraising scale of 1.337 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past 1.5 years for Hong Kong-related ETFs [1]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The ETF closely tracks the Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index, which focuses on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, specifically excluding non-technology industries such as pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles [1]. - The index consists of 30 pure technology companies that are tradable via the Hong Kong Stock Connect, ensuring a focused investment logic that directs funds towards cutting-edge sectors like AI computing power, large models, and domestic chip production [1]. Group 2: Index Composition and Performance - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 76% of its weight, with leading AI companies like Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent collectively representing over 30% [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, the total market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks exceeds 10.5 trillion HKD, approximately 13% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks [1]. - The Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index has recorded a 27.62% increase over the past three years, significantly outperforming the Hangseng Index (+9.40%) and the Hangseng Technology Index (+7.02%) [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Insights - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached 731.193 billion HKD, a historical high for the period, indicating strong confidence and demand for quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - Analysts suggest focusing on technology giants benefiting from AI industry catalysts, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumer directions driven by technological advancements, and high-dividend assets in sectors like banking and utilities [5].

Economic Data Release - China will release several important economic data this week, including June CPI, June PPI, July foreign exchange reserves, and July social financing data [1] - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period is about to end, and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [1] Stock Market Developments - This week, a total of 50 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of approximately 37.619 billion yuan. The top three stocks by market value of released shares are Lingyun Guang (5.952 billion yuan), Haohua Technology (4.263 billion yuan), and Weike Technology (3.636 billion yuan) [2] Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft business rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which includes detailed processes for account management, funding, and settlement [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures regarding government procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, requiring that non-EU companies' products must not exceed 50% of the total contract amount for certain procurement projects [5] Aviation Industry Initiatives - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on the development and regulation of these sectors [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and encourages local governments to implement precise policies to promote healthy development [7] Electricity Demand Surge - China's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, driven by high temperatures, marking an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [8] Oil Production Increase - Eight major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, adjusting their output based on current market conditions [9] New Tariffs Announcement - U.S. President Trump announced that new tariffs will likely be implemented starting August 1, with rates potentially reaching up to 70% [10] Stock Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation, with a focus on industry logic as half-year reports approach. High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor [14] - The market is cautiously optimistic for July, with expectations for steady upward movement in the index amid various influencing factors [14][15]

Macroeconomic Insights - Consumption has exceeded expectations, with May data showing a further recovery in consumer spending, slightly surpassing market forecasts[1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains negative year-on-year, but core inflation has stabilized above 0.5%[1] - Industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, indicating moderate production levels[1] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is positioned at the beginning of a new structural slow bull market, with a significant breakthrough at 3400 points expected to mark a new journey[3] - The ongoing trade tensions and the strengthening of China's manufacturing sector are expected to enhance global trade dynamics and investor confidence[3] - The stock market's attractiveness is increasing as interest rates decline, with a notable rise in stock fund issuance compared to the previous year[3] Bond Market Overview - The yield on 1-year government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points to 1.35%, reflecting a relatively ample liquidity environment[5] - The central bank's liquidity support and a weak economic backdrop are the primary drivers for the bond market's stability[5] - The market anticipates a slight decline in total growth data in Q3 due to diminishing export effects[5] Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable expansion, with a focus on technology and consumption sectors[6] - The banking index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 3.32%[24] - High-dividend stocks in the banking sector are becoming increasingly attractive as interest rates decline[6] Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales have seen an expanded decline, with a year-to-date cumulative sales area growth of only 0.2%[7] - The central bank is emphasizing the implementation of incremental policies to stabilize the real estate market[7] - The second-hand housing market has shown signs of recovery, with a year-to-date cumulative sales area growth of 26.1%[7] Securities Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in daily trading volumes have increased from below 1.1 trillion to 1.6 trillion, indicating heightened market activity[8] - The introduction of new policies for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to facilitate financing for quality tech companies[9] - The securities sector is likely to benefit from the government's initiatives to boost domestic demand and consumption[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "July Rebound" phenomenon in the A-share market, highlighting its historical patterns and potential investment opportunities based on behavioral finance and market trends [1][2]. Historical Performance - Over the past 15 years (2010-2024), the average return of the A-share index in June was -1.1%, while in July it rebounded to 0.9%, indicating a typical "bottoming-out and rebound" pattern [2]. - The success rate of the July rebound over the past 15 years was only 60%, with notable exceptions such as a more than 15% decline in July 2015 due to a liquidity crisis [2]. Structural Characteristics - The July market typically exhibits structural characteristics, with high success rates in sectors like military, new energy, and resource industries such as steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, driven by policy expectations and industry cycles [2]. Driving Forces Behind July Rebound - The July rebound is supported by three main factors: liquidity recovery, policy signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting, and the onset of mid-year earnings reports, which can enhance market sentiment and structural opportunities [5]. Investment Opportunities - In July, focus on sectors with earnings forecast discrepancies and recovery potential, including non-US export chains, price increase chains, AI chains, and financial sectors [6]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from policy and event-driven catalysts, particularly during the transition from the 14th to the 15th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The technology sector, especially AI, is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to favorable valuations and market sentiment [6]. - Resource sectors are likely to see improvements due to seasonal demand and price increases in the third quarter [6].