Core Viewpoint - Trump's reaffirmation of imposing tariffs if re-elected has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions and inflation, leading to significant declines in major U.S. stock indices [1][3]. Market Impact - On October 10, U.S. stock indices experienced substantial declines: the Dow Jones fell by 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 dropped by 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq decreased by 820.20 points (3.56%) [2][3]. - The decline was primarily driven by emotional reactions to Trump's tariff threats, with large tech stocks and Chinese concept stocks also experiencing downturns [2][4]. A-Share Market Outlook - Despite the external trade uncertainties, the medium-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with expectations for a style rebalancing in Q4, focusing on traditional value sectors such as real estate, brokerage, and consumer goods [2][5][6]. - Historical data indicates that similar market declines have occurred 21 times since 2020, often linked to sudden risks or macroeconomic shocks [3]. Emotional Market Sentiment - The CNN Fear & Greed Index for U.S. stocks dropped to around 29, indicating a shift to a "fear" dominated zone, down from a neutral position of 52 [5]. - The fundamental aspects and liquidity of the U.S. market have not been significantly affected, suggesting that the current market adjustment is primarily sentiment-driven [4][5]. Sector Performance - On October 10, a notable shift occurred in A-share market styles, with technology sectors declining significantly (e.g., the ChiNext index fell by 12.5%), while traditional value sectors like real estate and brokerage showed resilience [6]. - The report suggests that the market may experience increased volatility, often accompanied by a shift from high-growth to value styles, as seen in previous market cycles [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

Core Insights - The report indicates that despite the recent escalation in trade tensions, the medium-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with a focus on a style rebalancing towards traditional value sectors in Q4, such as real estate, brokerage, and consumer stocks [3][4][6]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The report highlights that the recent threats of tariffs from the U.S. have led to significant declines in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down by 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq dropping by 820.20 points (3.56%) on October 10 [3][4]. - The report notes that Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs, including a proposed 10% baseline tariff on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China, have heightened concerns about global trade tensions and inflation [4]. A-share Market Resilience - The report references past instances where A-shares experienced significant declines due to trade tensions, such as a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index in April 2025, but subsequently rebounded due to supportive domestic monetary policies [5][6]. - It emphasizes that the current policy environment remains conducive to a bullish outlook for A-shares, with expectations for policy measures to counteract price declines [5]. Style Rebalancing in Q4 - The report observes a notable shift from technology stocks to value stocks in the A-share market, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices falling by 5.61% and 4.55%, respectively, while real estate and brokerage indices saw slight increases [6]. - Historical comparisons are made to previous market phases, indicating that increased volatility often accompanies a shift back to value stocks, as seen in the second phase of the 1999 bull market and during periods of heightened volatility in 2020 [6].

Market Overview - The stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping over 5% at one point [1] - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.94% to 3897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.7% to 13355.42 points, and the ChiNext Index declined by 4.55% to 3113.26 points [1] - The STAR 50 Index saw a drop of 5.61%, with total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 25,345 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant downturn, with declines in non-ferrous metals and chip stocks [1] - Conversely, sectors such as gas, coal, steel, agriculture, food and beverage, oil, and real estate showed gains [1] - Financial sectors including insurance, banking, brokerage, and liquor also saw upward movement [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the market is currently in a consolidation phase that has persisted since late August, and a trend-driven market may require new catalysts [1] - Despite the downward pressure, the risk of further declines is considered limited due to several important changes that have previously heightened market liquidity [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October is expected to review the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may support market expectations [1]

Market Overview - On October 10, the A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.03 points, down 0.94% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42 points, down 2.7%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3113.26 points, down 4.55% [1] - Overall, more stocks declined than rose, with over 2700 stocks increasing in value [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The nuclear power sector remained active, with stocks such as China Nuclear Engineering, Hezhong Intelligent, Shenneng Power, Jinyu Group, and Antai Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The real estate concept stocks showed resilience, with TianTou City Development, Hefei Urban Construction, Shenzhen Zhenye A, Guangdong Mingzhu, Xinjiang Jiaojian, and Huaxin Cement also reaching the daily limit [1] - The robotics sector saw localized activity, with stocks like Shenneng Co., Pailin, Jingquan Hua, Huide Technology, Zhuolang Intelligent, and Lianfa Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - The gas sector experienced fluctuations, with Dazhong Public Utilities and Hongtong Gas reaching the daily limit [1] - The power sector showed unusual upward movement, with Guodian Nanzi, Xinte Electric, and Sifang Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, high-priced stocks collectively declined, with the semiconductor and precious metals sectors experiencing the largest drops [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

Core Insights - The performance of public funds in the first three quarters of 2025 shows significant differentiation, with over 50 funds doubling their net value, particularly in technology and pharmaceutical themes, while funds heavily invested in traditional finance and cyclical sectors performed poorly [1][2]. Fund Performance - Active equity funds achieved an average return of 34.54% year-to-date, outperforming passive index funds which averaged 27.56% [2]. - A total of 53 funds recorded returns exceeding 100%, with 48 being active equity funds, highlighting the success of active management in a structural market [2]. - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart A, had a return of 194.49%, followed by Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A at 161.1%, both focusing on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Traditional Sector Performance - In contrast, 41 funds reported returns below -5%, with 27 being active equity funds, primarily invested in traditional sectors like banking, real estate, and consumer goods [3]. - The performance gap between the best and worst active equity funds exceeded 200 percentage points, indicating a high level of market differentiation [3]. Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows due to their strong safe-haven appeal, with an average return of 41.04% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market [4]. - All 14 gold ETFs recorded positive growth in shares, with the largest ETF increasing by over 3.3 billion shares, and total market shares surpassing 20 billion [4]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its differentiation, with technology and innovative pharmaceuticals likely to remain the main themes in Q4 [5][6]. - Investment strategies should focus on "high-cut low" approaches, shifting from high-performing sectors to undervalued areas [6][7]. - The innovation drug sector may see reduced overall beta in Q4, suggesting a focus on individual stock opportunities rather than broad sector plays [7].

Core Insights - The holiday economy shows a steady increase, with a daily average of 154 million people traveling across regions during the first five days of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - There is a notable increase in outbound and overseas travel flights, exceeding 12% [1] - Consumer spending is driven by two main themes: "cost-performance ratio" and "emotional value" [1] Travel and Tourism - Strong demand for homecoming and tourism travel is observed [1] - Different provinces and cities show growth in tourist reception and tourism revenue, although the growth rates vary significantly [1] - Movie consumption remains subdued, influenced by film quality, with ticket prices continuing to decline [1] Consumer Goods - The automotive sector performs well due to the impending expiration of subsidies and the launch of new models [1] - Home appliance consumption is affected by high base disturbances, but smart and green categories show strong performance [1] Real Estate and Land Market - Real estate sales see a holiday decline, with year-on-year variations due to base disturbances [1] - The land market remains relatively cold [1] Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment is ramping up, with the issuance of special bonds at the fastest pace in recent years [1] - Post-holiday restocking drives accelerated port operations [1] - Production slows down before the holiday, while consumer goods prices show significant increases, particularly in food and beverages [1] - Industrial product prices experience a slight decline [1] - Liquidity remains ample, with the US dollar index returning above 98 [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3900 points, reaching the highest level since August 2015, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [4] - The market showed a structural divergence, with 3109 stocks rising and 2184 stocks falling, highlighting both opportunities and risks [5][11] Trading Activity - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 4700 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 21.63%, indicating extreme trading activity [6] - Resource stocks surged in the afternoon, driving the index to break through, while technology stocks experienced a short-term correction, creating a favorable "weight on stage, theme in play" market dynamic [6] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors displayed a cautious and observant approach, with a tendency towards conservative positioning, as most funds opted to remain inactive [8] - Retail investors showed high enthusiasm for entering the market, driven by the "opening red" profit effect, leading to increased risk appetite and a tendency to chase market hotspots and engage in thematic investments [8] Fund Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from major players, while retail investors experienced a net inflow [7] - The overall positioning of institutions was characterized by "cautious observation + partial layout," with some funds adjusting their positions in cyclical stocks while adopting a "sell on rallies" strategy for high-valuation technology stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong performance post-holiday, driven by the synergy of policy benefits and industry trends, with significant gains in technology growth sectors and cyclical resource products [1] Market Performance - A-share market indices have demonstrated strong growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.24% to 3931.07 points, marking a ten-year high; the ChiNext Index increased by 1.77% to 3295.58 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index surged 5.59% [2] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market rose, with a notable concentration of gains in nuclear power, gold, and semiconductor sectors, indicating a clear market focus on technology and resource sectors [2] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight recovery, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.04% to 26840.95 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.63% [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market's technology and resource sectors have formed a leading growth tier, with the metals sector rising 6.51% and gold stocks benefiting from international gold prices exceeding $4000 per ounce [3] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with a projected 27% share of AI data center semiconductor sales by 2025, driven by price reversals in storage chips and domestic substitution logic [3] - In the Hong Kong market, cyclical and infrastructure sectors have performed well, with copper prices driven by supply shortages and demand from computing power [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - Traditional consumer and cyclical sectors in the A-share market are under pressure, with the media sector down 1.5% due to disappointing box office results, and real estate stocks experiencing widespread declines [4] - The Hong Kong market's pharmaceutical and consumer electronics sectors are struggling, with innovative drug stocks facing policy risks and valuation adjustments [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is positioned at a critical juncture of "intensive policy implementation and accelerated industry trends," with three main investment themes suggested for Q4 [5] - The technology growth sector remains a core focus, particularly in the AI industry chain, with opportunities in semiconductor equipment, storage chips, and AI applications [5] - The cyclical and resource sectors present significant supply-demand mismatch opportunities, particularly in precious metals and chemical sectors, with expectations of performance recovery [5] Policy-Driven Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes new productivity areas such as AI and high-end manufacturing, with increased policy support for critical sectors like controlled nuclear fusion and semiconductor equipment [6] - The consumer sector may see marginal improvements, with low-valuation categories like home appliances and food and beverage potentially benefiting from upcoming consumption stimulus policies [6]