1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soda ash capacity utilization remains high, with new capacity gradually ramping up and overall production increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although high - level exports ease some pressure and anti - involution sentiment provides support, high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of pressure when the sentiment fades and the market returns to the weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, showing a volatile and upward trend in the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The resistance is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 72,467 lots, and the open interest increased by 22,832 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1176, and the closing price was 1198, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Tianjin Soda Industry resumed production, leading to a narrow - range increase in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor restocking willingness and a wait - and - see attitude [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27% month - on - month; the combined - soda process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, up 0.42% month - on - month [2] - Inventory: As of January 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,541,000 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 1.30% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 838,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 702,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - High soda ash capacity utilization and new capacity ramping up lead to increasing production. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may weaken rigid demand. High - level exports and anti - involution sentiment provide some support, but high inventory restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a risk of pressure when sentiment fades [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a neutral fundamental situation with a range - bound trend. Supply - side blast furnace profits are stable, electric furnace profits are weakening, and short - term production may continue to increase. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is seasonally weakening, and inventory will continue to accumulate [3]. - The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, with seasonal inventory accumulation. However, due to the support from the steel market and the expected restocking by steel mills, the downside price space is limited [23]. - The coking coal market shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures", and the basis is at a high level. Short - term spot prices may face回调 pressure, and medium - to - long - term prices may face significant downward pressure under certain conditions [33]. - The ferroalloy market is in a range - bound pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are slightly better than those of silicomanganese [50]. - The soda ash market has an increasing excess supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [64]. - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. The high inventory of the mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure [87]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: - Rebar: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3200, 3123, and 3169 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3326, 3280, and 3301 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3313 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Spread Data**: - Rebar spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 77, - 46, and - 31 respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 46, - 21, and - 25 respectively [4]. - Other spreads: The roll - rebar spread, basis, and other spreads also have corresponding values and changes [9][12][17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - Futures prices: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 783, and 764.5 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 793 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: - On January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 thousand tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 310.73 thousand tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16766.53 thousand tons [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: - Coking coal spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 178, - 80, and 258 respectively [36]. - Coke spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 91.5, - 71, and 162.5 respectively [36]. - Other data: The basis, coking profit, and other indicators also have corresponding values and changes [36]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1640 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloy - **Ferrosilicon Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was - 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicomanganese Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 188 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1198, 1259, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 61, - 36, and 97 respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1067, 1173, and 1227 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 106, - 54, and 160 respectively [88]. - **Sales and Production Data**: - On January 27, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 122%, and in Hubei was 138% [89].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension of tapping, and overseas raw material prices are likely to rise, strengthening cost support. Demand is weak, with slow domestic sales and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are strong. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to maintenance, while PE's standard product pressure increases. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal device maintenance [2]. LPG - The price is affected by factors such as inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates. The downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market situation needs to be further observed [3]. Urea - The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, with the main contract of urea focusing on the range of 1,760 - 1,800 [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand. PVC is expected to have a downward adjustment in the market, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weakly volatile market. Soda ash is affected by inventory and demand, while glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the pre - holiday off - season [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene's price may be under pressure at high levels due to factors such as increased import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and its price is also expected to be under pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply - side factors support the rise in oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is being depleted, but high production restricts the rebound space. The port inventory is slightly increasing, and the demand for MTO is weak [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX, PTA, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and seasonality. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol has a pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term supply - demand [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned full - latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed to varying degrees, and the basis has also fluctuated [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries' production in November has changed, and indicators such as tire production, export volume, and import volume in December have also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of bonded areas and factory warehouses has changed, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao have also changed [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries have changed, and the inventory of enterprises and society has decreased [2]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has increased, port inventory has decreased, and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed [3]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts have fluctuated, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production has increased, inventory has decreased, and demand is weak [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures have decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries have changed, and inventory has increased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash spot and futures have decreased, and the basis has changed [7]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed, and real - estate data has also changed [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different products have changed [8]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have decreased, and the spreads and cash flows have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil in different regions have changed [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have decreased, and the spreads and basis have changed [14]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory have changed, and upstream - downstream operating rates have also changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. have changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of POY, FDY, etc. have changed [16]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [16]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [16]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and inventory and operating rates have also changed [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has weakened, and prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash continue to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also in a state of oscillatory operation with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [1][3] - The strategies for glass and silicomanganese are to expect an oscillatory trend, and for soda ash, it is an oscillatory and weakening trend, while for silicon - iron, it is also an oscillatory trend [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass 2605 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and some manufacturers slightly raised prices with a fair trading atmosphere. The soda ash 2605 contract mainly oscillated, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass fundamentals are still weak. With the Spring Festival approaching, production line cold - repairs continue, and there are still expectations of production suspension. Recently, shipments have improved, and inventory pressure on the supply side has eased. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday. For soda ash, 1719 warehouse receipts were recorded yesterday. As the delivery month approaches, a sharp increase in single - day warehouse receipts suppresses prices. The latest data shows an increase in inventory, weak demand, and deepening supply - demand contradictions. Considering the warehouse - receipt game in the delivery month, soda ash prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese main contract showed a weakening trend during the day with a large increase in positions. The alloy cost has fair support, with the 6517 northern market price ranging from 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. An eastern steel mill set the silicomanganese tender price at 5830 yuan/ton today, with a tender quantity of 4000 tons. The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate weakly yesterday, the ferrosilicon market had a slight adjustment, and the market sentiment was rather flat. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5750 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities being put into operation, so the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, the demand for silicomanganese is expected to improve. The recent South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, and it may increase the manganese ore cost in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes. For ferrosilicon, the fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and winter stockpiling, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to decline further next year and the overall ferrosilicon production capacity is in surplus, the price increase is restricted. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of ferrosilicon and the electricity price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing up by $1.76 to $62.39 per barrel, a rise of 2.90% [2] - Brent March contract rose by $1.98 to $67.57 per barrel, marking a 3.02% increase [2] - The severe cold weather in the U.S. disrupted several refineries along the Gulf Coast, leading to a temporary halt in crude oil exports [2] - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production policy unchanged in the upcoming meeting [2] - Chevron's Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is projected to recover less than half of its production capacity by February 7, with further recovery remaining uncertain [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.57% to 2692 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.35% to 3165 yuan/ton [3][16] - Downstream demand is showing signs of recovery, but an increase in supply may create pressure on the market fundamentals in the coming month [16][17] - Geopolitical factors, particularly regarding Iran, continue to influence price volatility [17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract rose by 0.31% to 3279 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in refinery output expected in February [4][18] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions affecting end-user demand [18] Rubber - The main rubber contract fell by 25 yuan/ton to 16205 yuan/ton, with NR main contract remaining stable at 13085 yuan/ton [5][19] - Increased imports and rising port inventories are expected to limit price fluctuations [19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5258 yuan/ton, down 3.31%, while EG2605 closed at 3938 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [6][20] - The polyester downstream is experiencing reduced production, leading to low inventory levels and weak profit margins [20] Methanol - Methanol prices are stable, with Taicang spot price at 2267 yuan/ton and CFR China prices between $270-$274 [7][21] - Domestic supply remains high, but demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for oil-based and methanol-based PP [8][23] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream factories are expected to halt operations, leading to potential inventory accumulation [23] PVC - PVC prices are adjusting downwards, with the East China market seeing prices between 4680-4770 yuan/ton for calcium carbide method [9][24] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [24] Urea - Urea futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1790 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [10][25] - Supply is stable, but demand is showing signs of divergence between agricultural and industrial sectors [25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are experiencing slight declines, with the main contract closing at 1194 yuan/ton [11][26] - The market is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment, but overall demand remains limited [26] Glass - Glass futures prices are weak, with the main contract closing at 1066 yuan/ton, down 0.93% [12][27] - The supply remains stable, but demand may decrease as the holiday approaches [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets have seen sentiment repair, with glass and soda ash prices expected to remain volatile, and soda ash showing a weakening trend [1][2] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment, and their prices are expected to remain volatile [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The main glass contract showed a volatile rebound. Spot market quotes remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in the futures and spot markets improved [1] - Soda ash: The main soda ash contract also had a volatile rebound. Spot market quotes fluctuated at high levels, and downstream buyers were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with improved futures - spot trading [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Short - term market sentiment was repaired, and there was a rebound demand after the previous over - decline. Cold repairs continued on the supply side, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved, with float glass still mainly for rigid - demand procurement [1] - Soda ash: The operating rate decreased, but inventory increased. With the approaching Spring Festival, float glass demand was low, and restocking was weak, deepening the fundamental contradiction. In the short term, due to sentiment repair, speculative demand increased, and prices were expected to remain volatile [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile and weakening [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis** - Silicon manganese: The main silicon manganese contract was weak in the early part of the day and closed slightly down, showing a volatile trend at the beginning of the week. The alloy cost had a certain support, with the 6517 grade having a price range of 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market [3] - Silicon iron: The silicon iron futures were volatile and weak, and the market was slightly adjusted, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron was priced at 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon manganese: The fundamentals improved, but inventory pressure was still large, and new production capacity was put into operation, with supply - demand remaining relatively loose. There was an expectation of increased iron water output and steel mill restocking before the Spring Festival, so demand was expected to improve. The South African tariff policy might increase manganese ore costs [3] - Silicon iron: The fundamental contradiction was controllable, and enterprises actively reduced production loads. Considering steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, demand was expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi affected market sentiment, but overall over - capacity and expected lower electricity prices in the coming year would suppress price increases [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon iron: Volatile [4]

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]