Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The issuance of new shares by Huadian New Energy has raised a total of 15.801 billion yuan, making it the largest fundraising company this year, primarily for wind and solar power projects [2]. Group 1: New Share Issuance - Huadian New Energy issued 4.969 billion shares at a price of 3.18 yuan per share, raising 15.801 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 50 companies have gone public this year, raising a cumulative amount of 54.588 billion yuan, with an average fundraising of 1.092 billion yuan per company [1]. - Among the new issuances, 11 companies raised over 1 billion yuan, with one company exceeding 10 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fundraising Distribution - The distribution of fundraising amounts shows that the Shanghai main board had 12 new issuances raising 29.562 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen main board had 7 issuances raising 3.761 billion yuan [1]. - The ChiNext board had 19 new issuances raising 11.428 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had 7 issuances raising 7.901 billion yuan [1]. - The Beijing Stock Exchange had 5 new issuances raising 1.937 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Notable Fundraising Companies - Huadian New Energy is followed by Zhongce Rubber, which raised 4.066 billion yuan for working capital and tire production projects [2]. - Other notable companies include Tianyouwei, Yitang Co., and Yingshi Innovation, raising 3.740 billion yuan, 2.497 billion yuan, and 1.938 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The average initial public offering price this year is 23.73 yuan, with four companies priced above 50 yuan, the highest being Tianyouwei at 93.50 yuan [2]. Group 4: Regional Distribution - New share issuances are primarily concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, with 11, 10, and 10 companies respectively [2]. - The top fundraising provinces are Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, with amounts of 15.801 billion yuan, 9.693 billion yuan, and 7.299 billion yuan respectively [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil market is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will hardly have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply - demand situation is acceptable, with support at the lower price level, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - position mindset should be maintained for the medium - term, and long positions should be gradually established in batches. For the short - term, a neutral mindset is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out trading. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [10] - In the PVC market, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The market is currently rebounding driven by the rebound of the black building materials sector, but will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [12] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover [14] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July [17] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July. However, the LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [20][21] - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The demand side is slightly under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rallies [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures closed down $0.18, a 0.27% decline, at $67; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.49% decline, at $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.80 yuan, a 0.55% decline, at 503.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.21 million barrels to 9.15 million barrels, a 2.23% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.55 million barrels to 14.35 million barrels, a 4.00% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.57 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 8.48% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 5.23 million barrels, a 6.89% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 11.03% decrease; the total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.37 million barrels to 40.93 million barrels, a 3.23% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2399 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of +46 [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels. The market has gradually priced in the overseas supply disruptions, and market fluctuations have narrowed. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profit has improved, but the overall level is still low, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. It is expected that the upside space is limited in the off - season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1735 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer operating rate has continued to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the start of autumn fertilizer pre - sales. Export container shipping is still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly. The subsequent demand is concentrated on compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers and exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, it is the seasonal off - season for demand, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than the previous week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than the previous week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase, or a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 million tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.66 (+1.19) million tons [9][10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 8 yuan to 4906 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+28) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 97 (+13) yuan/ton [12] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase. Factory inventories were 38.6 million tons (-0.9), and social inventories were 59.2 million tons (+1.7). The corporate profit pressure has further increased, and there are many maintenance plans recently, but the production volume remains high, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissionings in the short - term. The domestic operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is gradually entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken. The cost support is expected to weaken as the calcium carbide production restriction eases [12] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices have fallen, while futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase over the weekend. The cost of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has decreased. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate with a downward bias [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen. The主力 contract closed at 7282 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan decrease [17] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories at a high level have started to decline marginally, which provides some support for prices. It is the seasonal off - season, and the order volume of agricultural films on the demand side has decreased marginally, with the overall operating rate fluctuating downward. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July. The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen. The主力 contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in July. The LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 254 yuan (-5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan (-40) [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The Chinese PX operating rate was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China were 34 million tons, a 3.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a 16.5 - million - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 271 dollars (-11), and the naphtha crack spread was 73 dollars (+8). After the end of the maintenance season, the PX load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. The current valuation is at a neutral level [20][21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan. The basis was 97 yuan (-30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan (-24) [22] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.5% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance or reduced their loads. On June 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.7 million tons, a 0.3 - million - ton decrease. The spot processing fee of PTA fell 7 yuan to 292 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 9 yuan to 333 yuan. In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and it is not expected to significantly reduce production, but the bottle - chip plants have plans to reduce production. The demand side is slightly under pressure [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan. The basis was 76 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan (0) [23] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 3 was 1 million tons. Port inventories were 54.5 million tons, a 7.7 - million - ton decrease. The naphtha - based production profit was - 483 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 828 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1028 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 490 yuan. It is expected that the port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views - Trump plans to send new tariff rate notices (10% - 70%) to countries without trade agreements from August 1st, likely a weaker "aftershock" compared to April [6] - In the long - term bullish pattern of stock index futures, pay attention to internal and external marginal drivers. The market may rise in a slightly volatile way, and its continuation depends on internal and external factors [7][8] - Short - term butadiene rubber is weak, with limited downward space, and the medium - term fundamentals are under increasing pressure [9] - In the short term, the contradiction in the live pig market is not obvious, but the sentiment in the far - end market is strengthening [11] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Gold and Silver - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected. Gold has a trend strength of - 1 [19][23] - Silver: Continues to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [19][23] 2. Copper - Global copper inventories are increasing, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [25][27] 3. Zinc - Zinc prices are moving sideways. The trend strength is 0 [28] 4. Lead - Supported by the expectation of short - term consumption peak season. The trend strength is 1 [30][31] 5. Tin - Driven by the macro - environment, tin prices are rising. The trend strength is 0 [33][36] 6. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The upward elasticity of nickel prices is limited, and prices are under pressure at low levels. Stainless steel inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The trend strength of both is 0 [37][38][43] 7. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure at the upper level. The trend strength is - 1 [44][47] 8. Polysilicon - Pay attention to policy changes. The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [48][50] 9. Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is - 1 [51] 10. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [53][54][56] 11. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is - 1 [57][60] 12. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's first - round price increase is brewing, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is 0 [62][64] 13. Steam Coal - Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] 14. Logs - The main contract is switching, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [70]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,250.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.57% observed [1] - Demand for synthetic rubber is weak, particularly in the semi-steel tire sector, leading to difficulties in inventory reduction [1] - The supply of butadiene is expected to continue to decline, with a significant gap between butadiene and downstream capacity, which may lead to price volatility due to low circulation [1] Group 2 - Recent weak performance in the raw material market and ongoing selling pressure have led to cautious market sentiment, with a slight decrease in overall inventory for domestic butadiene rubber producers [2] - Tire manufacturers are experiencing a decrease in capacity utilization rates, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which negatively impacts overall production [2] - As maintenance periods conclude, production is expected to recover, potentially boosting overall capacity utilization for tire manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Supply pressure has slightly eased, but demand improvement remains limited, with cost factors expected to support a stabilization and potential rebound in the market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of rubber prices has returned to fundamentals with reduced influence from external geopolitical conflicts. The current rubber supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and the futures price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][84][85] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a slight decline overall. As of July 4, 2025, it closed at 14,005 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.28% for the week [14] - **Spot Price**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 19,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,250 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][21] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly shrank. As of July 4, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber slightly declined last week, while the overseas price remained flat [24][27] Important Market Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: US non - farm payrolls in June significantly exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of a July interest rate cut. China's Caixin Services PMI in June was below expectations, but the China Logistics Prosperity Index continued to rise. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June reached its highest level since August 2022 [8][31] - **Automobile Market**: In June, China's heavy - truck sales recovered, and new energy vehicle sales increased. The 1 - 5 month cumulative export of Chinese tires increased slightly year - on - year. The inventory of tire enterprises was high, and the start - up rate decreased last week [33][35][53] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [39][44][48] Demand - side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the start - up rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.41%, down 7.64% from the previous week; the start - up rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.75%, down 1.89% from the previous week. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month [53][57][60] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,110 tons to 18,885 tons. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [81] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [82] - **Demand**: Last week, the start - up rate of tire enterprises decreased, downstream factories purchased on demand, and tire inventory reduction was slow. In June, heavy - truck sales recovered, and from January to May, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while China's social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [82] 后市展望 - The price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract fluctuated in a range last week, rising after falling and showing a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, the rubber supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigations, and Sino - US tariff changes [84] Operation Strategy - The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [85]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 ------------------------------------------ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to a weak fundamental situation, with cautious market funds under macro uncertainties, and the NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 489 tons, with an expected slight decrease in the annual harvesting area by 0.1% to 22.5 million rai, and an increase in the annual yield per mu by 1.9% to 217 kg/rai [5]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 2.7% year - on - year to 546,000 tons, and the total exports to China increased by 4.5% year - on - year to 392,000 tons [7]. - Malaysia launched the rubber production subsidy (IPG) for small farmers in June 2025 [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets showed a slight decline, with a relatively larger decline in Japanese rubber. On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 0.28%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.70% respectively compared to the previous week [12][13]. Basis and Spread - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU and the spread between September and January contracts showed different trends. As of July 4, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 88.89% and a year - on - year increase of 99.02%. The spread between September and January contracts was - 865 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year increase of 26.38% [14]. - The spreads between RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 widened, while the spreads between RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were 1920 yuan/ton, 2805 yuan/ton, 431.95 yuan/ton, and - 1437.96 yuan/ton respectively [20][21]. - The spreads of non - standard basis and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were as shown in the data, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [23][31]. - The spreads between substitute products and RU widened. As of July 4, 2025, the values of the spreads between butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber and RU were - 2505 yuan/ton and - 2205 yuan/ton respectively [33]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was at a high level, and the settled funds decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 8.09 and 11.34 respectively, and the settled funds were 4.281 billion yuan and 816 million yuan respectively [35][36]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeastern region was slightly lower this week, and the rainfall decreased month - on - month; the weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. In Yunnan and Hainan in China, the recent rainfall increased significantly, restricting the output of new rubber and causing an increase in raw material prices. In Southeast Asia, the weather improved, and the tapping work gradually resumed, but the supply side still lacked strong drivers [40][41][44]. - The price difference between Thai cup lumps and latex decreased significantly, and the price difference between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these price differences were 6.05 baht/kg and 1200 yuan/ton respectively [50][51]. - The production profit of Thai cup lumps decreased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets, concentrated latex, and Hainan concentrated latex improved. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these production profits were - 556 yuan/ton, 1447 yuan/ton, 417.79 yuan/ton, and 819.48 yuan/ton respectively [53][54]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [57][58]. - **Demand** - This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory of tires decreased marginally. As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.53% and 64.13% respectively, and the inventory days were 40.45 days and 46.48 days respectively [61][62]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. The sales of passenger cars and heavy - trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [65][66]. - **Inventory** - As of June 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to increase, mainly due to the increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The futures and spot inventories of natural rubber and 20 - rubber at relevant exchanges also showed corresponding changes [68][72][73]. Operation Suggestions - It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77].

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 14000 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -65 | -125 | 60 | 48.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13900 | 13950 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 非标价差 | -115 | -175 | 60 | 34.29% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.55 | 48.20 | 0.35 | 0.73% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.50 | 55.00 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-04 轮胎厂开工率继续回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14015元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。NR主力合约12125元/吨，较前一日变动-150 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13900元/吨， 较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11300元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，7月份轮胎企业订单存一定差异，部分半钢胎企业受订单影响，月初存检修计划，对整体产出形成一 定拖拽，全钢胎企业表现基本稳定，排产波动不大。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前5个月，越南出口天然橡胶合计20.5万吨，较去年的25万吨同比下降18%。其中， 标胶出口11.8万吨，同比降26%，包括SVR10降47%至3.8万吨，SVR3L持平至4.2万吨，SV ...