1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks have reignited, and oil prices have restarted their upward trend. The current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance, and it is not advisable to short - sell oil prices rashly even with the OPEC meeting approaching. Investors are advised to control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. However, the high valuation of methanol spot has compressed downstream profits. It is expected that imports in August will be limited, and it is difficult for ports to accumulate large - scale inventories before the 09 contract. The overall short - term contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [4]. - For urea, with more maintenance devices and falling domestic demand, it has entered a range - bound operation. Although exports are ongoing and port inventories are rising, domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the future, supply will decline, and demand and exports are expected to improve slightly. It is advisable to consider short - term long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have shifted from a stagnant - rise to a decline. Bulls focus on potential production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand. Short - term trading should adopt a neutral approach, and a long - term bullish view can be maintained for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, the cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and both supply and demand are weak. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Although it has rebounded recently, it will still face pressure in the future [14]. - For styrene, the cost of pure benzene has increased, supply has risen, and demand is in the off - season. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [17]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to inventory reduction driven by high - maintenance. With no new production capacity planned in July, the price is expected to remain volatile [19]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in June [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season has ended, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories due to new PTA device production. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of crude oil [22][23]. - For PTA, the load remains stable, and downstream load has decreased. In the future, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is under slight pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load has decreased, and the downstream load is expected to decline from its high level. The inventory reduction at ports is expected to slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: WTI主力原油期货收跌0.35美元，跌幅0.52%，报67.18美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.30美元，跌幅0.43%，报68.85美元；INE主力原油期货收涨8.10元，涨幅1.63%，报506.3元[1]. - **Singapore ESG Oil Product Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 12.37 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 7.18%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.47 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 4.54%; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.88 million barrels to 23.38 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.91%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 45.65 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [1]. Methanol - On July 3, the 09 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2414 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was + 46. It has low inventory and strong spot performance, but high spot valuation has compressed downstream profits. Imports in August are expected to be limited, and it is difficult for ports to accumulate large - scale inventories before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [4]. Urea - On July 3, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was + 23. More maintenance devices have led to a decline in production, and domestic demand is weakening. Exports are ongoing, but domestic demand is entering the off - season. In the future, supply will decline, and demand and exports are expected to improve slightly. It is advisable to consider short - term long - position opportunities on dips [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have shifted from a stagnant - rise to a decline. Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears are concerned about weak demand due to a poor macro - outlook and the off - season. As of July 3, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.73%, down 1.89 percentage points from last week; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.04%, down 7.64 percentage points from last week. Short - term trading should adopt a neutral approach, and a long - term bullish view can be maintained for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][11][12]. PVC - The PVC09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4914 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 134 (+36) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 110 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate has decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Although it has rebounded recently, it will still face pressure in the future [14]. Styrene - Spot prices have fallen, and futures prices have risen, with a weakening basis. The cost of pure benzene has increased, supply has risen, and demand is in the off - season. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - Futures prices have risen. After the end of the Iran - Israel conflict, crude oil prices have stabilized. Spot prices have fallen, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories have started to decline marginally, providing some support to prices. Demand is in the off - season, and the operating rate is declining. With no new production capacity planned in July, the price is expected to remain volatile [19]. Polypropylene - Futures prices have risen. The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in June [20]. Polyester PX - The PX09 contract fell 50 yuan to 6740 yuan, the PX CFR fell 5 dollars to 849 dollars, and the basis was 259 (+7) yuan. The load in China and Asia has decreased. The maintenance season has ended, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories due to new PTA device production. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of crude oil [22][23]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan/ton to 4746 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 35 yuan to 4890 yuan, and the basis was 127 (-20) yuan. The load remains stable, and downstream load has decreased. In the future, supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is under slight pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, it is advisable to consider long - position opportunities on dips following the trend of PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4288 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 8 yuan to 4370 yuan, and the basis was 76 (+2) yuan. The supply load has decreased, and the downstream load is expected to decline from its high level. The inventory reduction at ports is expected to slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities in the future [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 declined, inventory remained stable, basis weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fees dropped. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas still had shutdowns, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained. In the future, downstream profits will improve, the further compression space of TA processing fees is limited when the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the absolute price is expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the开工 decreased month - on - month, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened month - on - month, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies do not decrease, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage with the increase of domestic开工. With the current low inventory and not - low valuation, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the proximal Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, the开工 dropped to 93.8%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory slightly increased. On the demand side, the开工 of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, benefits slightly improved, and staple fiber exports maintained a high growth rate. In the future, there are also production reduction plans for staple fiber, but the implementation of production reduction in the industry needs further follow - up as the inventory and benefit pressure are acceptable, and the processing fees are expected to remain weak [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of POY fluctuated between 67.1 - 69.1, PX CFR fluctuated between 132 - 271, PTA internal spot price fluctuated between 4890 - 7075, etc. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2509(+124) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 3.6 - million - ton plant; Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton plant had maintenance; Hengli Dalian's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the external price of MEG was 850, the internal price fluctuated between 4328 - 4377, the profit was between - 870 - - 837, the total load was 67.2, and the port inventory was 54.5 [4]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line plant had maintenance; Anhui Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the spot price was around 6744, and the market basis was around 08 + 50. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit also changed during this period [4]. - **Device Changes**: Proximally, Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, and the开工 dropped to 93.8% [4]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Data**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and other types of rubber all changed. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased from 1715 to 1705 [4]. - **Key Spreads**: The spreads such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber - NR09 - RU0, RU main contract - NR main contract, etc., also changed during this period [4]. Other Chemical Products - **Ethylene and Pure Benzene**: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast) remained at 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 740 to 728 [8]. - **EPS, PS, ABS**: The prices of EPS (East China general material), PS (semi - transparent material), and ABS (0215A) all decreased to varying degrees during this period, and the domestic profits of these products also changed [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating and strongly - trending pattern, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 14,110 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic high - level meetings have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the tire production and sales growth slowing down and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract showed an oscillating and strongly - trending pattern, with the futures price slightly rising 0.18% to 11,290 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic high - level meetings have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber last week. The downstream demand is weak, with the tire production and sales growth slowing down and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term. Next week, as enterprises finish their maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,015 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 865 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,125 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 155,114 lots, down 1,571 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 36,726 lots, down 2,219 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 24,393 lots, down 8,086 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,003 lots, up 14 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 188,880 tons, down 270 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 28,023 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,342 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 217 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.88 Thai baht/kg, down 0.21 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 62.31 Thai baht/kg, down 0.69 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, up 0.73 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.34%, down 0.02 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.9%, up 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.84%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.83%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping decreased slightly in the northern hemisphere and changed little in the southern hemisphere [2]. - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, up 14,800 tons or 2.40% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 80,700 tons, down 0.62%; the inventory in general trade was 551,400 tons, up 2.85% [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and about 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume was about 533,300 vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week. However, downstream shipping pressure remains, and production and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance schedules, and some reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, as maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. [2] - The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 11,185 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the position of the main contract was 28,760, up 871. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 700 tons, unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 315 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. [2] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil was 69.11 dollars/barrel, up 2 dollars; WTI crude oil was 67.45 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 572.25 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 8,875 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan. [2] b. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 69.75%, down 0.31 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,450 tons, down 950 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit was 45.02%, up 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.94 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 68.54%, up 2.22 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 578 yuan/ton, down 1,165 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.41 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,650 tons, up 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,370 tons, down 450 tons. [2] c. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. [2] d. Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56%. [2] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year. [2] - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 5.333 million vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year. [2]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： ------------------------------------------ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on their weak supply - demand structures [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Supply is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. Although the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a stable oscillating trend on Tuesday night, rising 0.36% to 14025 yuan/ton, it lacks upward space. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up last week's production and capacity utilization rate. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. In the context of a weak supply - demand structure, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday night, falling 0.89% to 11120 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current geopolitical risks have gradually subsided, but the short - term decline in oil prices has been significant. It is believed that the current oil prices have reached a reasonable range. Short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals. The reality is still low inventory, and the spot performance is relatively strong. The valuation of methanol spot itself is relatively high, and the downstream profits have been significantly compressed. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply is starting to decline, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the autumn will gradually start. Exports are expected to continue. It is believed that the supply - demand situation of urea may improve slightly, and the short - term downward space for prices is relatively limited. One can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, there is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber. NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - For styrene, the cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [15]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies, but beware of ethane import risks [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.56, or 0.86%, to $65.53; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.28; INE main crude oil futures rose 1.10 yuan, or 0.22%, to 499.4 yuan [2]. - **Data**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 7.61 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.54 million barrels to 1.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 24.94%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 9.13 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 18.37 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 6.49% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 270 yuan/ton, and the basis was +136 [3]. - **Analysis**: It has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. The downstream profits have been compressed, and it is expected that the port will not accumulate a large amount of inventory before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was +39 [5]. - **Analysis**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, and domestic demand has weakened. Exports are continuing, and port inventory is rising. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve slightly, and one can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: There is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber, and NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls are optimistic due to the expected production reduction, while bears are pessimistic due to the poor macro - outlook and weak demand. The tire start - up rate has increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations [8][9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 68 yuan to 4821 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), the basis was - 81 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 93 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton) [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost side has some upward pressure, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the exports are expected to weaken. The market is expected to operate weakly [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7249 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: The short - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis was 176 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the price will be bearish in June [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6794 yuan, the PX CFR fell 13 dollars to 861 dollars, and the basis was 305 yuan (- 110 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 160 yuan (- 34 yuan) [18]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4980 yuan, the basis was 175 yuan (- 49 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 126 yuan (- 18 yuan) [20]. - **Analysis**: In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 4273 yuan, the East China spot price fell 6 yuan to 4328 yuan, the basis was 69 yuan (+ 5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 21 yuan (+ 6 yuan) [21]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [21].