投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/29 | -149.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, due to the combined effects of increasing supply and weakening demand[5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - Cycle Analysis - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile[1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed significantly lower by 2.07% to 478.0 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night[5]. 3.3 Driving Logic - Supply: After OPEC+ oil - producing countries increased the daily crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels in May 2025, they may further increase production in June, and Kazakhstan may not strictly abide by the compensatory production - cut plan, increasing supply pressure[5]. - Demand: In May, North American crude oil demand is in the off - season, refinery operating rates are at a low level, consumer demand is insufficient, and inventory accumulation pressure is prominent[5].

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on April 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 22 to April 28, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 141.4, - 143.4, - 144.4, - 146.4, - 147.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the basis of INE crude oil was - 40.24 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1469 [9]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For commodities like natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., basis data from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber on April 28 was - 180 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for multiple chemical commodities are given, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of natural rubber being - 985 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on April 28 was 121.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar was - 97.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40 [15]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on April 28 was - 40 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on April 28, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 28.60, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.27 [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on April 28 was - 265 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for multiple agricultural products are given, such as the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 8 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spreads like the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on April 28, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.79 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 22 to April 28, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on April 28 was 51.02 [47]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 32.8 [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 will maintain a weak and volatile trend. The main reasons are the uncertainty of OPEC+'s production plan for June in the May meeting, which increases concerns about oversupply, and the reduction in oil demand due to power outages in Spain and Portugal, along with the release of strategic oil reserves by the Spanish government [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price and Trend** - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed down 1.15% at 488.5 yuan/barrel overnight on Monday [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2506 are all weak and volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Driving Logic** - The OPEC+ May meeting's uncertainty about the June production plan has led to concerns about increased oversupply pressure [5]. - Power outages in Spain and Portugal caused several refineries to close. Spain will release three - day strategic oil reserves due to about one - tenth of European oil consumption in these two countries, resulting in weakened demand and expected supply increase [5].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. Although the macro - sentiment has improved recently, the supply of the rubber market is expected to increase, and the domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are about to enter a new tapping season. Meanwhile, domestic tire enterprises are approaching the May Day holiday, and the operating rate is under pressure to decline, so the rubber price lacks follow - up momentum for rebound [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. However, the supply - demand fundamentals of methanol are still weak, with a significant increase in weekly production and a high operating rate of coal - to - methanol. The upward space for methanol in the future may be limited, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. After the negative impact of Kazakhstan's production increase has been digested, the crude oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence, and the upward movement of the futures price is blocked by the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that the domestic oil price will maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. In the first quarter of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. In March 2025, China's heavy - truck sales were about 105,000, a month - on - month increase of 29% and a year - on - year decrease of about 9%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 259,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average operating rate of domestic methanol was 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly production of methanol was 189,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 920 tons, and a significant increase of 21,010 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and coal (methanol) - to - olefin plants increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rates of dimethyl ether and MTBE decreased. The futures disk profit of methanol - to - olefin decreased slightly week - on - week but rebounded significantly month - on - month. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 450,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,700 tons. As of the week of April 24, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260 tons [10][11][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 11, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 481, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels per day and an increase of 360,000 barrels per day compared with the same period last year. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points. Since April 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend. As of April 22, 2025, the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly week - on - week [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 14,730 yuan/ton | -220 yuan/ton | -180 yuan/ton | +220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,485 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,310 yuan/ton | +22 yuan/ton | +175 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 455.8 yuan/barrel | -0.1 yuan/barrel | 498.0 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | -42.2 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [16][28][40]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]