Group 1 - The industrial metal sector saw multiple stocks open higher on December 1, with silver rising over 7% [1] - Shenghe Resources increased by more than 6%, while Jiangxi Copper and Shengton Mining also experienced gains [1]

Economic Outlook - Domestic policy expectations are rising in December, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is increasing, which may lead to improved external liquidity and a potential market rebound[5] - Key focus areas include the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could lead to a valuation recovery in the technology sector[5] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly AI hardware like optical modules and semiconductors, as well as energy storage and lithium battery sectors[5] 2. Market hot spots such as robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to rebound[5] 3. Chemical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies that optimize supply-demand dynamics[5] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended sectors include metals, chemicals, electric new energy, machinery, banking, automotive, pharmaceuticals, electronics, communications, and media[5] - Specific stock recommendations include: - Metals: Huaxi Nonferrous (华锡有色) with an expected EPS growth from 1.04 in 2024 to 2.17 in 2027[28] - Chemicals: Yara International (亚钾国际) with an expected EPS growth from 1.02 in 2024 to 5.87 in 2027[28] - Electric New Energy: Slin (斯菱股份) with an expected EPS growth from 1.73 in 2024 to 2.21 in 2027[28] - Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic (恒立液压) with an expected EPS growth from 1.87 in 2024 to 3.18 in 2027[28] - Banking: Bank of Communications (交通银行) with a projected PB of 0.58x in 2025[18] - Automotive: Top Group (拓普集团) with an expected EPS growth from 1.78 in 2024 to 2.38 in 2027[28] - Pharmaceuticals: Junshi Biosciences (君实生物) with a projected EPS turnaround by 2027[28] - Electronics: Dongshan Precision (东山精密) with an expected EPS growth from 0.64 in 2024 to 3.72 in 2027[28] - Communications: Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) with projected net profits of 105.19 billion in 2025[26] - Media: Kaiying Network (恺英网络) with a projected EPS growth from 0.76 in 2024 to 1.47 in 2027[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations due to slow employment growth, declining corporate revenues, and reduced market demand[30] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could adversely affect performance[30]

Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 289.30 points (0.61%) closing at 47,716.42, the Nasdaq rising 151.00 points (0.65%) to 23,365.69, and the S&P 500 increasing by 36.48 points (0.54%) to 6,849.09 [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones saw a cumulative increase of 3.18%, the S&P 500 rose by 3.73%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.91% [4] Technology Sector - Intel's stock surged over 10%, marking its best single-day performance since September 18 [1][6] - Other major tech stocks also saw gains, including Facebook (up over 2%), Amazon (up over 1%), and Microsoft (up over 1%), while Nvidia experienced a decline of over 1% [6] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.82%, with notable increases in stocks like Micron Technology (up over 2%) and Qualcomm (up over 1%) [7][8] Commodities - WTI crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, closing at $58.55 per barrel, marking the longest monthly decline since March 2023 [10] - Silver and copper prices reached record highs, with silver rising 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce and copper climbing 2.5% to a peak of $11,210.50 per ton before settling up 2.2% [11]

Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed a mixed performance on November 27, with platinum leading the gains, rising over 6%, followed by silver and tin with increases of over 3% and 2% respectively [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1481.51 points, up 9.37 points or 0.64% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2048.35 points, up 12.96 points or 0.64% [1] Group 2 - The precious metals sector remained strong, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which supported gold prices and consequently boosted silver and platinum prices due to supply shortages [2][3] - Tin prices surged over 2% due to concerns over supply disruptions from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with prices breaking the 300,000 yuan per ton mark [3] Group 3 - Agricultural products mostly rose, with eggs experiencing a significant rebound of over 2%, and various oilseed products increasing by over 1% [4] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.68%, with market sentiment weakening despite strong demand expectations and decreasing inventory [5] - Asphalt futures continued to trend weak, dropping by 1.41% due to declining demand as temperatures fell, leading to a subdued market [5]

Market Overview - On November 27, A-shares opened mixed with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.49%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.96%, and ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1] - Sectors such as industrial metals, photovoltaic equipment, and semiconductors showed significant gains [1] Futures Market - Platinum and palladium futures were listed for trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, with benchmark prices set at 405 CNY/gram for platinum and 365 CNY/gram for palladium [1] - On the first day of trading, the main contracts opened significantly higher [1] Gold and Platinum Market Dynamics - According to a researcher from Nanhua Futures, the demand for gold is rising due to de-dollarization, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to historical highs in gold prices [2] - Platinum, being a weaker safe-haven metal, is influenced by gold prices, with the gold-platinum ratio at historical highs, indicating a short-term trend where gold leads and platinum follows [2] - The long-term outlook suggests that platinum and palladium have substitution effects, anchoring palladium prices to platinum [2] Small Metals Sector Performance - The small metals sector in A-shares saw a rally, with Guoyan Platinum Industry (600459) rising over 8%, followed by West Mining and Cangge Mining [2] - The small metals index increased by 1.45% [3] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector experienced strong fluctuations, with Yishitong (688733) hitting the daily limit up of 20%, and other companies like Lian De Equipment and Zhidongli rising over 10% [4][5] - The solid-state battery index rose by 1.99% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the expectation of a December rate cut. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it is recommended to follow the key voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: China's internal economic momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has remained stable since May, suggesting the central bank may not rush to further relax policies. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have increased, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate work demand and production capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payrolls, the December rate - cut expectation was initially lowered, and the US dollar index rose. However, the New York Fed President's speech lifted the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to balance asset allocation in Q4, and pay attention to opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The Fed's expectation management is shifting, with a possible dovish turn in key figures' speeches in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic: Policy measures may support Q4 infrastructure investment. The central bank may not rush to relax policies. Real - estate sales have improved, but land transactions and work demand are weak [8]. - Asset Allocation: Balance asset allocation in Q4. Look for buying opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: With reduced overseas shocks, the risk appetite may rise. Stock index futures may rise in a volatile manner, stock index options may remain stable, and treasury bond futures may also rise in a volatile way [9]. - **Precious Metals**: In a short - term adjustment phase, gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the freight rate decline rate of the European container shipping line, which is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The rebound momentum is weakening. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Optimism is rising, and base metals may stop falling and rebound, with most products expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade situation has slightly eased, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, while some may decline [11]. - **Agriculture**: Market sentiment has improved, but trends are divergent. Some agricultural products are expected to rise, while others may decline or remain stable [11].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a near one-month high, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and a shift in metal flows to U.S. inventories, suggesting further price increases ahead [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On November 26, LME three-month copper rose by $157, or 1.45%, closing at $10,975.00 per ton, marking the highest level since October 30 [2]. - The copper price hit a historical high of $11,200 per ton on October 29, amid concerns over tightening supply from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [4]. - Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING, indicated that the upward risk for copper is increasing due to supply challenges, low inventories, and ongoing trade distortions, predicting a tightening supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - Nicholas Snowdon from Mercuria noted a surplus of 350,000 to 400,000 tons in the global cathode copper market this year, while there is a 500,000-ton deficit in copper concentrate, a situation expected to persist into next year [4]. - Snowdon emphasized that LME copper prices need to rise to attract copper back from the U.S. to the global market, where the U.S. currently holds 70% of global cathode copper inventories, potentially increasing to 90% by Q1 2026 [4]. - LME registered warehouse copper inventories have decreased by 42% this year, with significant metal flows directed to the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $60.50, or 2.16%, closing at $2,861.00 [2]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $63.50, or 2.12%, closing at $3,056.50 [2]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $1.00, or 0.05%, closing at $1,979.50 [2]. - LME three-month tin increased by $444.00, or 1.18%, closing at $37,991.00, the highest since April 2, driven by fund activity and ongoing supply concerns [5].

Market Overview - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 0.19% on November 26, with Yinbang Co., Ltd. leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Luoping Zinc Electric (002114) with a closing price of 9.72, up 9.95% [1] - Huafeng Aluminum (601702) at 18.07, up 6.73% [1] - Mengmei New Materials (002988) at 38.52, up 4.16% [1] - Conversely, Yinbang Co., Ltd. (300337) saw a decline of 4.04%, closing at 9.97 [2] Trading Volume and Value - Luoping Zinc Electric had a trading volume of 93,000 shares, with a transaction value of 90.41 million yuan [1] - Huafeng Aluminum recorded a trading volume of 320,900 shares, with a transaction value of 576 million yuan [1] - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 1.372 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 884 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed a net inflow in: - Northern Copper (000737) with 14.4 million yuan [3] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) with 94.99 million yuan [3] - Major funds experienced a net outflow in: - Huafeng Aluminum (601702) with a net outflow of 32.38 million yuan [3] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) with a net outflow of 44.74 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex scenario of "falling prices and heightened volatility" [2] - It emphasizes the need for companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness in light of these challenges, particularly with the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures [2] Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a divergence in trends across energy, metals, and agricultural products, with traditional supply-demand logic being disrupted [2] - Companies are facing unprecedented challenges in cost control, supply chain stability, and strategic transformation [2] Event Details - A seminar hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) in Hangzhou will explore the opportunities presented by the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the copper market and provide exclusive data on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [2][3] - The event is scheduled for December 4, 2025, and will feature various expert speakers discussing market insights and forecasts [3][4] Expert Contributions - Kian Pang Tan, an expert in agricultural research, will share insights on the palm oil market, leveraging over ten years of experience and advanced data analysis techniques [6] - Fu Xiaoyan, a senior director at Nanhua Futures, will discuss opportunities in the copper market, drawing from extensive experience in the futures industry [7][8] - Chen Xiaoyan, the agricultural research director at Dadi Futures, will provide an outlook on the cotton market amid changing tariff dynamics [9] Data and Analytics - LSEG emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization in commodity trading, highlighting the need for accurate information to enhance decision-making processes [13][14] - The company offers comprehensive solutions for energy, metals, and agricultural trading, utilizing a vast database and a team of analysts to support clients in identifying market opportunities [16][17][20]