Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience volatility in the second half of the year, with a potential for stabilization followed by an upward trend, contingent on macroeconomic policies and external uncertainties [1] - The uncertainties affecting the market include tariffs, geopolitical issues, technological narratives, and macroeconomic policies, which necessitate a focus on certainty in investment strategies [1] - The recommendation is to prioritize stable investments initially, with a shift towards growth opportunities once uncertainties are alleviated, emphasizing dividend sectors and high-growth areas [1] Group 2 - The "transformation bull" market in China's stock market is becoming increasingly clear, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [2] - Investor sentiment has shifted from concerns about economic cycles to a focus on declining discount rates, particularly the reduction in risk-free rates and systemic risk awareness [2] - The Chinese government's policies aimed at debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization, along with capital market reforms and emerging business opportunities, are expected to boost long-term investor confidence [2] - Recent market activity has exceeded expectations, driven by new consumption and technology trends, although further momentum is needed to sustain the rally [2] - Suggested sectors for investment include innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, new consumption, and strong industrial demand in metals and chemicals [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.04% at 3,385.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.45% [1][6] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.15 trillion RMB, with over 2,400 stocks rising [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, the non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [1][6] - Concept sectors such as zinc metals, Tianjin Free Trade Zone, and lead metals saw significant increases [1][6] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index close down 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.63% [1][6] - In the U.S., all three major stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, the S&P 500 up 1.03%, and the Nasdaq up 1.20% [1][6] - European stock indices showed mixed results, while most Asia-Pacific markets experienced gains [1][6] Important News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a seminar on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, discussing ways to improve the valuation of high dividend and high yield companies [2][7] - The exchange emphasized the continuous improvement of the capital market system, structure, and institutional mechanisms, reinforcing confidence in Chinese assets [2][7] - Future initiatives will focus on encouraging listed companies to increase dividend payouts and frequency, utilizing tools like buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and investor communication to enhance investment value [2][7] - The product supply side will see an expansion of dividend index-related products to meet diverse market investment needs, promoting positive interactions between long-term capital, patient capital, and quality equity assets [2][7]

金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。 市场普遍分析认为，随着关税政策的调整，全球贸易格局面临重塑，金属市场的供应链稳定性受到冲击。投资者为了规避可能的风险，将资金转移至相对 稳定且具有避险属性的贵金属市场，白银作为其中的重要一员，自然成了资金流入的方向。这种基于宏观政策变动引发的市场行为，直接推动了白银价格 近日，贵金属市场上演了一场令人瞩目的行情。 现货白银价格大幅飙升，一度涨幅超过4.5%，突破关键的36美元/盎司整数关口，达到了自2012年2月以来的最高水平。尽管在收盘时价格有所回落，但仍 收报于35.63美元/盎司。 今年以来，现货白银累计涨幅已达约24%，展现出强劲的上升势头。投资白银的时机到了吗？后市会怎么走？ 白银价格涨幅超过黄金 市场数据显示，本周现货黄金价格累计上涨约0.6%，而现货白银的累计涨幅却超过9%，站上35美元/盎司关口，其间更是一度突破36美元/盎司关口，为 2012年2月以来首次。 有分析人士表示，这种分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所致。最近一段时间，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当于1盎司 黄金可以换100盎司白银，已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白 ...

Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: US economic data in May, including ADP employment growth, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI, were below expectations and previous values. The OECD cut the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" outlook. However, consumer confidence improved after the tariff truce, with increased spending intentions and lower inflation expectations [5]. - Domestic macro: Amid the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI showed resilience. China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than expected. From January to April, industrial enterprise profits were 21170.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. The May manufacturing PMI rebounded due to trade friction easing and policy support [5]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, Trump's tariffs won't solve the US deficit problem. In China, stable - growth policies focus on existing resources. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, while stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Financial markets**: Index futures showed different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.25%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%. Interest rates, foreign exchange, and other financial indicators also had their respective fluctuations [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: Most commodities showed varying degrees of price changes. Alumina had a significant daily decline of 3.92%, while gold had a daily increase of 0.17%. Different sectors such as shipping, precious metals, and energy had their own trends [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.95% daily, and COMEX gold increased by 0.61% daily. Various overseas commodities in energy, precious metals, and agriculture also had different performance [2]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Overseas**: US economic data was weak in May, but consumer confidence improved. The OECD cut the global and US growth forecasts, and the Fed warned of economic uncertainties [5]. - **Domestic**: Manufacturing showed resilience under policies. May's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year from January to April [5]. 3. Asset Views - **Overall**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [5]. - **Domestic**: Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven stocks [5]. 4. Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, stagflation trading cools down; in China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [7]. - **Financial**: Stock index futures have rising gaming sentiment but also concerns; index options have a slightly warm sentiment; treasury bond futures may be affected by capital and policy expectations [7]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver may adjust short - term due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The shipping market's sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the loading rate increase in June [7]. - **Black building materials**: Coal and coke supply contraction expectations increase, and black prices generally rebound, but different varieties have different trends [7]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: De - stocking slows down, and non - ferrous metals maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Demand growth is lower than expected, and the sector's performance is weak, with different trends for each variety [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have a positive impact on cotton prices, and different agricultural products have their own market situations [9].

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（6月6日） 4. 布宜诺斯艾利斯交易所在一份周报中表示："尽管收割延迟，但我们仍然看到单产高于最初预期，特 别是在南部农业区和布宜诺斯艾利斯省西部。"该交易所称，目前本年度大豆已收割完成约88.7%。该 交易所预计阿根廷2024/25年度将收获约5000万吨大豆和4900万吨玉米。 5. USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周 为17%，去年同期为1%。约21%的美国玉米种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为23%，去年同期为 2%。 6. 据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新数据，截至5月30日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单51536 手，环比增加1657手；未点价买入订单96452手，环比增加4064手。 7. 据隆众资讯，截止到2025年6月5日，国内纯碱厂家总库存162.70万吨，较上周四增加0.27万吨，涨幅 0.17%。其中轻质纯碱79万吨，环比减少2.83万吨，重质纯碱83.7万吨，环比增加3.10万吨。 8. 智利海关公布的数据显示，智利5月铜出口量为181234吨，当月对中国出口铜32721吨。智 ...

首席点评： 欧线领涨 美国 5 月 ADP 就业人数增 3.7 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最小增幅，预期增 11.0 万人，前值从增 6.2 万 人修正为增 6 万人。数据显示， 5 月份，私营企业仅创造了 37000 个新工作岗位，这是两年多来的最小 增幅，因为自 20 世纪 30 年代以来最严重的贸易战促使许多公司暂停招聘。在美国 5 月 ADP 就业数据 发布后，美国总统特朗普表示，鲍威尔现在必须降息。他还表示"这令人难以置信，欧洲已经降息九次 了"。美联储发布的最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称"褐皮书"）显示，美国经济活动自上次报告 以来略有下降，企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、物价压力加大的压力，整体经济前景仍显悲观。 重点品种： 煤焦，原油，集运欧线 焦煤 / 焦炭：新版《矿产资源法》将于 2025 年 7 月 1 日正式施行的，环保标准更严格。受迎峰度夏补 库影响，短期动力煤现货上预期迎来暂稳窗口期，此后仍将下行。焦煤供应略有缩减，山西部分煤矿减 产，影响一定产能。但是受到煤矿库存高位拖累，产地未见到情绪上的好转。双焦在低位都有一定反 复，期价到了阶段性低点，等待方向选择。钢厂利润有 ...

LME有色金属库存日报 金十期货6月4日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： 1. 铜库存141350吨，减少2500吨。 2. 铝库存367875吨，持平。 3. 镍库存201624吨，增加162吨。 4. 锌库存136275吨，减少1075吨。 5. 铅库存281550吨，减少1600吨。 6. 锡库存2605吨，持平。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.40% during the week of May 26 to May 30, ranking low among all primary industries. Precious metals fell by 3.55%, industrial metals by 2.56%, energy metals by 3.18%, small metals by 0.69%, and new materials by 1.09% [1][15]. - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened due to declining U.S. consumer spending and escalating trade tensions, impacting industrial metals negatively. However, gold is expected to strengthen due to rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.40%, underperforming the index by 2.38 percentage points [15]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw declines, with precious metals leading the drop [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices remained volatile due to seasonal demand declines and macroeconomic sentiment. As of May 30, LME copper was at $9,497/ton, down 1.22% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥77,600/ton, down 0.24% [2][34]. - **Aluminum**: Prices decreased slightly, with LME aluminum at $2,449/ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,070/ton (down 0.42%). Social inventory fell to 549,600 tons, down 6.47% [3][38]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc was at $2,630/ton, down 3.06%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,225/ton, up 0.05%. Inventory levels decreased for both exchanges [41]. - **Tin**: Prices fell significantly, with LME tin at $30,230/ton (down 7.45%) and SHFE tin at ¥250,300/ton (down 5.40%). Supply expectations have increased due to resumed operations in certain mines [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The COMEX gold price rose to $3,313.10/oz (up 0.55%), while SHFE gold fell to ¥771.80/g (down 1.06%). The market anticipates a rise in U.S. inflation, providing a bullish outlook for gold [4][50]. Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 6.3% in April, indicating weakening consumer spending and investment sentiment. The PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, the lowest since March 2021 [4][28]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper due to disruptions in production and a seasonal decline in demand. The macroeconomic environment is expected to exert more influence on copper prices in the short term [2][34]. Inventory Trends - Copper inventories showed mixed trends, with LME stocks at 149,900 tons (down 9.02%) and SHFE stocks at 105,800 tons (up 7.22%) [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the industry report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector.

⑥国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.48%报3284.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌0.65% 报33.10美元/盎司； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.28%报99.8965，离岸人民币兑美元跌10个基点报7.1927； ⑧伦敦基本金属收盘普跌，LME期铜收跌32美元报9565美元/吨，LME期铝收跌16美元报2468美元/吨， LME期锌收跌18美元报2687美元/吨，LME期铅收跌3美元报1982美元/吨，LME期镍收跌398美元报 15011美元/吨，LME期锡收跌952美元报31636美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.16个基点报3.986%，3年期美债收益率涨2.55个基点报 3.953%，5年期美债收益率涨3.02个基点报4.064%，10年期美债收益率涨3.37个基点报4.477%，30年期 美债收益率涨2.47个基点报4.976%； ①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.58%报42098.7点，标普500指数跌0.56%报5888.55点，纳指跌0.51% 报19100.94点； ②热门科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超1%，微软、亚马逊、英伟达、谷歌跌幅不足1%； ...

昨日A股 隔夜外盘 纽约股市三大股指5月27日全线上涨。截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨740.58 点，收于42343.65点，涨幅为1.78%；标准普尔500种股票指数上涨118.72点，收于5921.54点，涨幅为 2.05%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨461.95点，收于19199.16点，涨幅为2.47%。 5月27日A股三大指数集体调整，截至收盘，沪指跌0.18%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌0.68%，北证50 指数涨0.08%。全市场成交额10241亿元，较上日缩量97亿元。全市场2500只个股飘绿。 欧洲三大股指5月27日涨跌不一。截至当天收盘，英国富时100种股票平均价格指数报收于8778.05点， 较前一交易日上涨60.08点，涨幅为0.69%；法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于7826.79点，较前一交易日 下跌1.34点，跌幅为0.02%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24226.49点，较前一交易日上涨198.84 点，涨幅为0.83%。 板块题材上，新消费、草甘膦、农化制品板块领涨；工业金属、消费电子板块跌幅居前。 盘面上，新 消费概念领涨，保健饮品、休闲食品、珠宝、 ...