Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the rebound in agricultural products. Currently, the sectors with relatively strong cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black and energy sectors [3]. - The short - term momentum of the black sector has declined, with a decrease in the positions of iron ore and rebar, indicating a more cautious sentiment after the realization of positive factors [3]. - The cross - section of agricultural products has reversed, with the short - term momentum of soybean oil slightly decreasing and that of soybean meal increasing, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - **Sector Performance**: The cross - section of non - ferrous and agricultural sectors is strong, while the black and energy sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum has marginally rebounded, and the decline in silver's positions is small. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has marginally rebounded, and the long - term momentum continues to rise, with copper being strong and alumina being weak. In the black sector, coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - term momentum cross - section of the energy - chemical sector has expanded, and the chemical sector is on the short side of the cross - section [3]. - **Factor Performance**: The supply factor increased by 0.98% last week, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [13]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side signal remains long, the demand side signal turns neutral, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal remains neutral [13]. Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased slightly, the demand factor is long, the inventory factor is short, and the spread factor is long. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, similar to the above balanced state [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, also in a balanced state [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, with low operability and a balanced trend [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, the same as the others [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term, with overall low - level range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to demand changes and the progress of domestic demand stimulus policies as the off - season approaches [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level, with the market starting to trade the reality of marginal relaxation of fundamentals [3] - The coke market has a third - round price increase expectation, but the steel's pressure on raw material prices is strong. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [4] - The coking coal market's price is not expected to decline continuously. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety supervision in major production areas [6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread steel's apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand remained good, production rose slightly, and inventory also decreased [2] - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated [2] - The real estate investment declined significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand was weak, and the market sentiment was low [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened. Global shipments decreased, but were still at a high level. Domestic arrivals reached a new high this year, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - Last week, iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate hit a new low this year. There is further production - cut pressure after entering the off - season [3] Coke - The coke price decreased during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase, but the coking profit is average, and downstream demand is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price decreased. Some coal mines in Wuhai resumed production, but the price is not expected to decline continuously. The total inventory increased slightly [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. The manganese ore price increased slightly [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the supply was at a high level with inventory decreasing [8]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 26 products experiencing price increases, 22 seeing declines, and 2 remaining stable in late October 2025 compared to mid-October 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) price is 3122.3 CNY per ton, up by 11.8 CNY, a rise of 0.4% [5] - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) price is 3281.7 CNY per ton, up by 17.4 CNY, a rise of 0.5% [5] - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) price is 3425.5 CNY per ton, down by 19.8 CNY, a decline of 0.6% [5] - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) price is 3319.6 CNY per ton, down by 6.7 CNY, a decline of 0.2% [5] - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) price is 4096.3 CNY per ton, down by 9.8 CNY, a decline of 0.2% [5] - Angle steel (5) price is 3412.6 CNY per ton, down by 4.0 CNY, a decline of 0.1% [5] Group 2: Price Changes in Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) price is 86808.8 CNY per ton, up by 1378.8 CNY, a rise of 1.6% [6] - Aluminum ingot (A00) price is 21098.8 CNY per ton, up by 192.1 CNY, a rise of 0.9% [6] - Lead ingot (1) price is 17150.0 CNY per ton, up by 229.2 CNY, a rise of 1.4% [6] - Zinc ingot (0) price is 22145.0 CNY per ton, up by 135.0 CNY, a rise of 0.6% [6] Group 3: Price Changes in Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) price is 714.3 CNY per ton, up by 59.6 CNY [6] - Caustic soda (liquid caustic, 32%) price is 869.3 CNY per ton, down by 7.8 CNY, a decline of 0.9% [6] - Methanol (first grade) price is 2161.3 CNY per ton, down by 51.1 CNY, a decline of 2.3% [6] - Pure benzene (industrial grade) price is 5414.7 CNY per ton, down by 174.6 CNY, a decline of 3.1% [6] - Styrene (first grade) price is 6437.9 CNY per ton, down by 108.1 CNY, a decline of 1.7% [6] Group 4: Price Changes in Energy Products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) price is 4237.1 CNY per ton, up by 396.9 CNY, a rise of 10.3% [7] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) price is 4240.4 CNY per ton, down by 130.5 CNY, a decline of 3.0% [7] - Gasoline (95 National VI) price is 8093.6 CNY per ton, down by 169.4 CNY, a decline of 2.1% [7] - Diesel (0 National VI) price is 6791.8 CNY per ton, down by 88.6 CNY, a decline of 1.3% [7] Group 5: Price Changes in Agricultural Products - Rice (Japonica) price is 3919.6 CNY per ton, down by 20.0 CNY [8] - Wheat (National Standard Grade 3) price is 2468.6 CNY per ton, up by 23.5 CNY, a rise of 1.0% [8] - Corn (Yellow Corn Grade 2) price is 2152.8 CNY per ton, down by 1.5 CNY, a decline of 0.1% [8] - Cotton (White Cotton Grade 3) price is 14505.4 CNY per ton, up by 239.5 CNY, a rise of 1.7% [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the text. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27% overall, with only the black sector rising 1.96%, while non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.36%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.97% respectively [1]. - The Fed cut interest rates and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, but Powell's stance was hawkish, and geopolitical uncertainties, along with a rebound in the US dollar index, may lead to short - term oscillations in the commodity market [1]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may oscillate at high levels; non - ferrous metals may operate stably; the black sector may face pressure; energy prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term; the chemical industry may oscillate; and in the agricultural products sector, meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Summary - **Overall Market**: The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27%. The black sector was the only one to rise, up 1.96%, while other sectors declined [1]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were apples, iron ore, and coking coal, with increases of 4.38%, 3.76%, and 3% respectively. The top - losing varieties were methanol, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with declines of 4.05%, 3.92%, and 3.47% respectively [1]. - **Volatility and Capital**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with most varieties in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black, and chemical sectors seeing an increase in volatility. The overall market capital scale decreased, with only the black sector seeing an increase in capital, and outflows mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. 2. Sector - by - Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term oversell, the sector rebounded last week. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and ended balance - sheet reduction, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy disagreements among officials, along with the US government shutdown in a game stage, may lead to high - level oscillations in the sector [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index, and China's PMI unexpectedly declined. The supply side remains tight, but the terminal is weak, and inventories have slightly increased. The sector may operate stably in the short term due to expected incremental stimulus policies and a suspension of trade frictions [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to improve last week, production increased, and inventories continued to decline. Hot metal production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate reached a new low this year. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be relieved. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and there are expectations for safety production assessments in the coking coal main production areas, but steel mills have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The sector may face pressure in the short term [2]. - **Energy**: US EIA data showed that crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories declined more than expected, supporting oil prices. However, the Fed's negative guidance on a December interest - rate cut, the easing of Sino - US relations, and OPEC +'s decision to increase production in December limit the rebound height of oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken in the medium term. With a lack of more positive factors, it may oscillate in the short term. For building materials, the weak reality persists, with rising costs and decreasing inventories, and it may fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: US soybeans are supported by optimistic trade expectations, and meal performance is strong. Palm oil in Malaysia has not shown seasonal production cuts, and with weak export demand, the risk of a decline in oils has increased. Meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the total scale of gold ETFs decreasing by 2.91% and the total trading volume decreasing by 4.22% [33]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy and chemical ETF had a weekly return of - 0.83%, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a 2.22% return, the non - ferrous metals futures ETF had a 0.20% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a - 0.12% return. The total scale of commodity ETFs decreased by 1.83%, and the total trading volume decreased by 6.43% [33]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Manufacturing**: In October, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Supply contracted (3 - month average: the production index was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), demand declined (new orders were 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (finished - product inventory up 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, raw - material inventory down 0.1 percentage points to 47.9) [3]. - **Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Supply slowed (3 - month average: the employee index was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), demand increased (new orders were 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (inventory was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month) [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Eight industries were in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and 3 less year - on - year [9]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Thirteen industries were in the expansion range, 5 more month - on - month and 1 more year - on - year [9]. 3.2 Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Automobile and Textile Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [16]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service new orders decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, while construction new orders increased 1.1 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [16]. 3.3 Supply: Focus on the Decline of Civil Engineering and the Improvement of Automobile and Pharmaceutical Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the production index in October was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Seven industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined. The employee index was 48.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eleven industries improved month - on - month, and 4 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the employee index in October was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 3 declined [24]. 3.4 Price: Focus on the Decline of Ferrous Metals and the Improvement of Aviation - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the ex - factory price index in October was 48.3, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. The profit trend in March decreased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, continuing to converge [32]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in October was 47.9, unchanged month - on - month. Service was unchanged, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 5 declined. The profit in March increased 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, with service unchanged and construction increasing 2.7 percentage points month - on - month [32]. 3.5 Inventory: Focus on the De - stocking of Non - ferrous Metals, Postal, and Construction Decoration Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the finished - product inventory in October increased 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Nine industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined. The raw - material inventory decreased 0.1 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined [39]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing inventory in October was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Service increased 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and construction increased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined [39]. 3.6 Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts The report provides detailed data on various manufacturing industries' PMI, including specific values, month - on - month, year - on - year, and three - year average changes for multiple indicators such as new orders, production, and inventory in industries like special equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others [47][49][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: In the off - season, trade based on expectations and pay attention to rebound opportunities. Negative feedback dominates the industry logic, and focus on the rhythm of steel mill production cuts. The cost of scrap steel is high, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [3][6]. - Iron Ore: With positive macro - expectations, it will fluctuate at a high level. The recent rebound in ore prices is mainly driven by stronger macro - expectations, but the industrial fundamentals may limit the upside space in the future [3][83]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The current supply - demand situation is tight, and prices will fluctuate at a high level. The spot prices remain strong, and the valuation may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [3][132]. - Ferroalloys: Affected by sector sentiment and fundamental contradictions, prices will fluctuate widely [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Macro - environment**: Overseas, US inflation in September declined more than expected, and the valuation of pro - cyclical commodities increased. The Sino - US summit had good results, easing the previous frictions. Domestically, manufacturing and infrastructure investment declined due to the "anti - involution" effect, and demand - side efforts are needed in the long - term. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the domestic market shifted back to "anti - involution" trading [8][11][12]. - **Supply - demand and inventory**: Supply is at a low level, demand has increased, and inventory levels are healthy. For thread steel, last week, the Shanghai spot price was 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3106 (+60) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 124 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 (+3) yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the Shanghai spot price was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3308 (+58) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 22 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 10 (+5) yuan/ton [7][25][46]. - **Demand**: For thread steel, new - home sales remained low, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remained high, showing rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. For hot - rolled coils, the peak demand season was lackluster, but export profits were available, and exports remained at a high level [26][29][47]. - **Production profit**: The expected production restrictions were revised, and steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the thread steel spot profit was 52 (- 37) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 59 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the East China thread steel valley - electricity profit was 40 (- 7) yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot profit was - 8 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 111 (- 5) yuan/ton [41][60]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The year - end shipment rush continued, and overseas shipments were at a high level. Global shipments in the recent week were 3388.54 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 303.2 million tons. Australian shipments were 1919.5 million tons, Brazilian shipments were 925.1 million tons, etc. [81][82]. - **Demand**: The iron - water production decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis and was close to the level of the same period last year [83]. - **Contract and spot prices**: The main 01 - contract price fluctuated strongly, closing at 800.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 540,000 lots (a decrease of 25,400 lots). The average daily trading volume was 336,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 lots. Spot prices increased week - on - week [85][89]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation trend continued, which may suppress the upside space of ore prices in the future [83][115]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Supply**: The actual supply in the production areas was still lower than expected. The weekly production of FW raw coal was 851.81 (+3.81) million tons, and the production of FW clean coal was 434.92 (+1.47) million tons. The daily average production of independent coking plants was 64.61 (- 0.68) million tons [132][134]. - **Demand**: The trading atmosphere in the production areas was warm. With the strengthening of the expectation of further price increases for downstream coke, it may support the demand for high - priced coal [132]. - **Viewpoint summary**: The current supply - demand situation is tight, and spot prices remain strong. Affected by macro - factors, the valuation may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. Some planning contents may have medium - to long - term impacts on major asset classes. For example, strategic positions of science, technology, and emerging industries are strengthened; there are impacts on consumption, investment, anti - involution, macro - economic policies, financial markets, RMB internationalization, and supply chain security [9][10]. - For different asset classes: - Equity index: The market is expected to consolidate at the end of the year and has an offensive window before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [2]. - Government bonds: The short - term impact is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias in November and December [2]. - Commodities: The demand - pull effect will diverge, with new energy - related demand growth likely to benefit more [3]. - Energy transition and carbon neutrality: Focus on the shift between traditional and new energy sources, and carbon prices may fluctuate upward [3]. - Technological self - reliance and advanced manufacturing: Sectors related to new - quality productive forces are expected to maintain rapid growth [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Macro Economy - On October 28, the Proposals and the Explanation were released. The policy orientation in the Proposals aligns with expectations. In terms of structure, compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline, the importance of opening - up and social welfare protection chapters has increased. Digital development is incorporated into the science and technology chapter, new - type urbanization is merged into regional economic layout, and two other chapters are consolidated into Part III [8][9]. - Qualitative planning is made for the next five - year key tasks, with quantitative targets and detailed arrangements to be determined in the Plan Outline. Some planning contents may impact major asset classes: - Science, technology, and emerging industries: Stocks and related commodities in the technology sector may benefit as key technological fields are expected to attract more capital and real demand [10]. - Consumption: "Vigorously boost consumption" may lead to relaxed restrictions on real estate and vehicle purchases, benefiting related stocks and commodities [12]. - Investment: The proportion of construction - related demand in commodities may decline, while products related to "a better life" may have incremental demand [12]. - Anti - involution: Policy attention on key sectors' prices will continue, curbing disorderly competition and regulating local government investment - promotion practices [13]. - Macroeconomic policy: The pricing logic of refined oil products may change due to potential consumption tax reform [13]. - Financial markets: The equity market will focus more on shareholder returns, and the futures and derivatives markets may enter a new development stage [13]. - RMB internationalization: The central level of RMB exchange rate volatility may decline [14]. - Supply chain security: Certain strategic minerals may see incremental demand [14]. 3.2 Equity Index - The equity market has fully priced in short - term policy positives, and the medium - term upward trend is consolidated. Adopt a long - term perspective with short - term tactical operations, focusing on four policy themes: - Stabilize growth: Expect further strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustments [15][16]. - Manufacturing and technology: Emphasize advanced manufacturing and self - reliance, highlighting emerging and future industries and key fields [17]. - Optimize traditional industries: Require major cyclical industries to enhance their position and competitiveness, which may increase leading enterprises' market share [18]. - Boost domestic demand: Focus on people's livelihood, but the shift to consumption - driven growth takes time. The stock market is expected to be optimistic before next year's Two Sessions, focusing on technology and "anti - involution" themes [19][20]. 3.3 China's Government Bonds - The Proposals convey a medium - to long - term policy tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" with high - quality development as the theme. The weight of economic growth may increase, and growth sources and modes may adjust. - Regarding monetary policy, it aims to improve the central banking system, build a sound monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macroprudential governance system. The next stage of building the macroprudential governance framework focuses on four areas [22][23]. - The short - term impact on the bond market is limited. In November and December, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly stronger bias, influenced by monetary policy, year - end institutional allocations, and fund fee reform [24]. 3.4 Commodities - On the supply side, the Proposals call for optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, which will support commodity prices through supply elasticity management in different sectors such as ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26]. - On the demand side, policies support economic growth and set a floor for commodity demand, but the impact varies by sector. New energy - related metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium will see clear demand growth, while other commodities face different challenges and opportunities [27]. - The commodities market is entering a phase of structural divergence. Short - term policy expectations may boost sentiment, but long - term trends depend on fundamentals [28]. 3.5 Energy transition and Carbon Neutrality - Energy: The Proposals emphasize accelerating new energy system construction, promoting green transformation, and increasing new energy supply. They also call for developing new energy storage and strengthening power grid construction, which may increase demand for certain metals. For fossil energy, consumption is expected to peak, and the consumption structure may change [30]. - Carbon market: The Proposals mention expanding the carbon market and developing a voluntary emission reduction market. In the short term, carbon prices are affected by quota carry - over policies; in the long term, they may fluctuate upward due to tightened quota allocations and market expansion [31]. 3.6 Technological Self - Reliance and Advanced Manufacturing - The 15th Five - Year Plan Proposals elevate scientific and technological self - reliance to the second main objective. It emphasizes advanced manufacturing and breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies. Investment in key areas like integrated circuits is expected to maintain rapid growth, driving related material demand [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows increased prices and better spot trading volume. The "15th Five-Year Plan" may issue a proposal for clearer guidance, and the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and APEC meeting may boost market risk appetite. The steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, carbon elements may outperform iron elements [2]. - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors supporting the rebound, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures continue to challenge the "anti - involution" trading high. The second round of spot price increases has been fully implemented. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease [6]. - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating. The supply side has no major problems, but high iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 27, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, JM2605, HC2605, J2605 were 3312.00, 400, 4000, 1910.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 45.00, 45.00, 13.00, 15.00 yuan and increases of 1.45%, 1.73%, 1.38%, 0.79%. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, JM2601 were 3299.00, 3100.00, 786.50, 1263.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 15.00, 47.00, 47.00 yuan and increases of - 0.96%, 1.45%, 0.79%, 1.54% [1]. - The spot trading volume has recovered to 120,000 tons, which is at a relatively high level this year. The overall steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, in line with the seasonality. The "Silver October" still has a peak - season demand release, but the demand has no strong explosive power, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve [2]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see or fluctuating approach for single - side trading; observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil when the spread of the 01 contract is below 150. For futures - spot reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking and wait for positive arbitrage [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The rebound space is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a positive macro - environment, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - Suggestions: Gradually take profit on previous long positions [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On October 27, the spot prices of coking coal and coke showed certain changes. The second round of spot price increases for coke has been fully implemented. The coking coal auction prices are mostly rising, but the market for Mongolian coal is cold [1][6]. - The coking coal supply is low due to frequent supply - side disturbances, and the steel mills' high - level iron - making water results in strong demand for coking coal. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation may ease [6]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. For industrial customers with a premium on the coke futures market, consider selling some spot goods on the futures market when the price rises [6][7]. Iron Ore - The supply side of iron ore has no major problems. The BHP's current shipment is down 10.4 tons/day compared to the previous period, still within a reasonable range. High iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations [7].