Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a cyclical rise, with certain sectors and styles remaining undervalued, making Chinese assets attractive for global allocation in 2026. Key investment opportunities are identified in four main areas: globally competitive manufacturing leaders, industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, sectors with low valuations and potential for significant fundamental changes, and industries with high long-term returns but mismatched valuations [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is currently active in terms of trading volume and turnover, but there is a notable differentiation among stocks, with some being overvalued while others remain undervalued, particularly in real estate and domestic demand sectors [4]. - The current market environment suggests a focus on safety margins and certainty in investments, avoiding blind speculation on volatility [4]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The U.S. economy is not performing as well as perceived, with potential fiscal and monetary stimulus expected ahead of the mid-term elections, which may lead to a new economic cycle [4]. - Domestic policies in China may adapt based on international conditions, with interest rate cuts potentially signaling fiscal expansion [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The first investment opportunity focuses on manufacturing leaders with global competitiveness, including sectors like power equipment, batteries, electric vehicles, home appliances, chemicals, and machinery [7]. - The second opportunity targets industry leaders in sectors where supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, such as real estate, aquaculture, chemicals, and light industry [8]. - The third opportunity involves sectors with low valuations and potential for significant changes, similar to past trends in coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [8]. - The fourth opportunity highlights industries with high long-term returns and significant valuation mismatches, such as airport and airline services, insurance, and non-brewery food sectors [8]. Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include inflation persistence, undervaluation of the RMB, and the impact of AI on labor and competitive dynamics [9].

Moneyfarm的分析师Richard Flax在一份报告中说，美国经济预计将在2026年实现稳健增长。他说，对人 工智能行业的大量投资、美联储降低利率以及政府的支持可能会促进经济增长。 另外，市场对地缘局势的担忧情绪有所回升，也吸引避险买盘支撑银价。当地时间12月29日，央视记者 获悉，美国总统特朗普在采访中表示，美军在委内瑞拉行动中摧毁了一座"大型设施"。但他没有提供有 关此次行动的更多细节。 同日，俄罗斯指责乌克兰对俄罗斯总统府在俄罗斯北部的住宅发动无人机袭击，这促使莫斯科重新考虑 其在和平谈判中的立场。 日图来看，纸白银昨日暴跌，今日价格持续回温上涨，目前涨超4%，布林带向上开口，表明目前处于 上涨轨道，一小时DMI显示警惕回调风险，MACD向零线倾斜，表明目前上涨动能减弱，纸白银走势下 方关注14.50-15.50支撑，上方关注16.50-17.00阻力。 今日周二(12月30日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.694一线上方，今日开盘于16.071元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报16.809元/克，上涨4.38%，最高触及16.891元/克，最低下探15.947元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the central government's approach to the real estate market, emphasizing "stabilizing the market" rather than merely pushing for recovery [2][4][13] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing increased downward pressure, with the supply-demand relationship shifting from total shortage to basic balance, highlighting structural supply deficiencies [2][4] - The central economic work conference has outlined a policy framework focusing on supply-demand coordination, inventory reduction, and promoting quality housing [3][5] - The report notes that as of November 2025, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area stands at 753 million square meters, indicating a high inventory level that requires ongoing efforts for reduction [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market is under pressure, with new housing transaction volumes continuing to decline, while "good houses" are becoming the mainstay of market support [1] - The central government's focus has shifted to stabilizing the market, with an emphasis on addressing structural supply issues and enhancing the quality of housing [2][4] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference has introduced measures to control land supply, encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing, and promote the construction of quality housing [3][4] - The report highlights that local governments are expected to implement various policies, including purchase subsidies and tax reductions, to stimulate inventory reduction [4][5] Demand Dynamics - The demand side is seeing improvements, with the central government advocating for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the housing market, particularly in core cities [5] - Recent policy changes in Beijing have aimed to optimize housing purchase restrictions, supporting families with multiple children and adjusting credit policies [5][8] Market Performance - In November 2025, the average price of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a slight month-on-month increase, while the overall sales volume and value continued to decline year-on-year [5][8] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with significant declines noted in major cities, although transaction volumes are showing signs of recovery [8][9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11% today, with a trading volume of 1,004.34 million shares and a transaction value of 17,424.85 billion yuan, representing a 0.72% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: Up by 2.43%, with a transaction value of 162.59 billion yuan, led by Tongyi Co., which rose by 10.01% [1]. - Machinery Equipment: Increased by 1.38%, with a transaction value of 1,591.32 billion yuan, led by Buke Co., which surged by 20.00% [1]. - Automotive: Gained 1.35%, with a transaction value of 949.77 billion yuan, led by Tsinghua Technology, which rose by 30.00% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - Commercial Retail: Decreased by 1.66%, with a transaction value of 298.04 billion yuan, led by Baida Group, which fell by 10.00% [2]. - Social Services: Down by 1.13%, with a transaction value of 104.28 billion yuan, led by Tian Su Measurement, which dropped by 15.65% [2]. - Real Estate: Fell by 1.02%, with a transaction value of 180.88 billion yuan, led by Suzhou High-tech, which declined by 6.88% [2].

Overall Research - In December, A-shares showed a general increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 6.3% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 1.4%. The defense, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors performed well, while financial real estate and consumer sectors lagged behind [1][7] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility in December, influenced by expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and fluctuations in US stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.8% [1][10] A-share Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a steady upward trend, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and increased capital inflows. Historically, a "spring rally" occurs almost every year in the A-share market, with 13 out of 14 years since 2012 (excluding 2022) witnessing such rallies [2][15] - The central economic work conference emphasized a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," which is expected to provide a solid foundation for economic growth and capital market prosperity [2][15][16] - The report suggests focusing on growth and consumer sectors, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing, which have historically shown greater elasticity during spring rallies. The consumer sector, currently underperforming, may attract "missed opportunity" funds [2][17][18] Hong Kong Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to domestic policy support and a weaker US dollar. Despite recent gains, overall valuations remain low, indicating high long-term investment value [3][20] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. Key areas include self-sufficiency, chips, and high-end manufacturing, as well as stable dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities [3][20] Stock Recommendations - For January 2026, the A-share stock selection includes: - Sunlord Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, SMIC, PetroChina, Sinopec, Haier Smart Home, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, and Shanghai Lingang [2][22] - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for January 2026 are: - Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Yujian, and Goldwind Technology [2][26]

Group 1 - The concept of "embodied intelligence" has been included in the government work report, indicating a significant market potential in this area [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption model has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, thus promoting the circular economy [4] - China's foreign trade has continued to expand despite a challenging international economic environment, supported by various digital communication and cross-border activities [5] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend among enterprises is evident as industries like solar energy, automotive, and e-commerce shift focus from price wars to innovation and value creation [6] - The "good housing" initiative is set to establish national standards by 2025, reflecting a shift in consumer expectations regarding housing quality [7] - The silver economy is projected to grow from 7 trillion yuan to 30 trillion yuan over the next decade, driven by an increasing variety of products catering to the elderly [9] Group 3 - The emotional consumption market, valued at approximately 2 trillion yuan, is fostering new professions related to self-care and personal well-being [10] - Cultural exports are gaining traction, with domestic products and media making significant impacts globally, showcasing a shift towards mutual cultural exchange [11]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate is at 70.33%, down by 0.15% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate is at 78.3%, also down by 0.15% from the previous week[7] - The PX operating rate decreased to 88.40%, a decline of 0.81%[7] - The PTA operating rate is at 72.84%, down by 0.97%[7] - The full steel tire operating rate is at 61.95%, a decrease of 2.19%[7] - The semi-steel tire operating rate increased to 72.05%, up by 0.66%[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue reached 751 million yuan, an increase of 3.4 million yuan from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 77,378.5 units, up by 1,567.2 units[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 96,624 units, an increase of 2,044.55 units[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 301.91 million square meters, up by 44.90% from the previous week[7] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in major cities increased to 218,053.72 square meters, up by 9,046.58 square meters[7] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 3,073.04 million square meters, down by 1,417.45 million square meters[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.14%, up by 0.94%[7] Trade and Transportation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,656.32, an increase of 103.40[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,877.00, a decrease of 244.00[8] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 17.67 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.11 yuan[8] - The average wholesale price of vegetables decreased to 5.68 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.15 yuan[8] - The average daily number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reached 12,430.43, an increase of 225.71 flights[8]

今日周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于73.52一线上方，今日开盘于72.19美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报73.92美元/盎司，上涨2.45%，最高触及73.99美元/盎司，最低下探71.12美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 全美不动产协会(NAR)周一表示，随着住房可负担性改善吸引买家，11月美国成屋签约销售意外飙升至 近三年来最高水平。 美国11月成屋签约销售指数环比上涨3.3%，至79.2，为2023年2月以来的最高水平，预期为上涨1%，前 值从上涨1.9%上修至2.4%。11月成屋签约销售指数同比上涨2.6%。本次数据几乎好于媒体调查的所有 经济学家的预期。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun表示：住房可负担性的改善——主要得益于按揭贷款利率下降，以及工 资涨幅快于房价上涨，正在促使买家开始试水市场。与此同时，相比去年更充足的房源选择，也在吸引 更多买家进入市场。 分析指出，最新数据表明，正如许多经济学家所预期的那样，美国住房市场正在逐步改善，并有望延续 到2026年。今年5月一度接近7%的按揭贷款利率，目前已回落并稳定在6.3%–6. ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下， | | 纽约市场盘中一度大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封跌停； | | 沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%，夜盘进一步下跌4%。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX | | 白银期货收跌7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。 | | 中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体。中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 | | 2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 | | 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东等区域，组织"正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a secondary disaster, where the initial shock has passed, but ongoing challenges and capacity shortfalls are emerging within the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The importance of product quality has significantly increased, leading to a demand for better marketing strategies that focus on product core concepts rather than just storytelling [2] - The supply chain lacks capable third-party providers who understand product needs, as existing firms struggle to adapt from a fast turnover model [3][4] - The transition from a finance-driven model to a manufacturing-oriented approach has created a talent gap, with many firms unable to retain skilled personnel [5][9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a shift in policy focus from financial regulation to product-oriented regulations, indicating a change in how the real estate sector is perceived [7][8] - The current market environment has led to a decline in the quality of customer research, with a lack of understanding of diverse customer preferences and needs [6] - The real estate sector is facing a generational talent crisis, with many professionals leaving the industry due to pessimism about its future [9][10] Group 3: Opportunities Amidst Challenges - Despite the challenges, there are emerging opportunities for new entrants and innovative approaches within the real estate development sector, as traditional players overlook potential [10] - The focus is shifting towards creating emotional resonance with customers through product value communication, moving away from self-serving narratives [8]