1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black sector showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2%. The furnace material end showed weakness. In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion. The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. - From the perspective of the black sector's own supply and demand, the support from raw materials is weakening, but the inventory pressure of coils is marginally reducing. The overall contradictions in the industry are relatively limited. The commodity index has risen to a key pressure level again, and there is a possibility of a breakthrough upwards in the later period. In the short term, the futures market may rebound supported by the overall bullish sentiment, but due to the general fundamental conditions, it may be difficult to have sustainability, and it is still judged to operate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Black Sector Futures Performance**: This week, the main contract of rebar fell 0.7% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil fell 0.3%, iron ore fell 2.1%, coke rose 0.3%, and coking coal fell 1.2% [2]. - **Steel Supply and Demand**: In the off - season, the overall contradictions in the steel market were limited. The absolute level of rebar inventory was not high and the pressure was not great. The production of hot - rolled coil was significantly lower than the same period last year, which supported the gradual reduction of inventory and the continuous decline of pressure. The molten iron production was generally flat, the blast furnace profit was average, and steel mills had little enthusiasm for expansion [2]. - **External Drive**: The overall performance of commodities was strong, and the Wenhua Commodity Index rose above 170 again, bringing external drive to the black sector [2]. Steel Production Data - **Monthly Data (December 2025)**: The monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68,180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1,446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The monthly import of steel was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6,060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The monthly export of steel was 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [5]. - **Weekly Data (January 23, 2026)**: The weekly production of rebar was 1,995,500 tons, an increase of 92,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 1,855,200 tons, a decrease of 48,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0%. The inventory was 4,521,000 tons, an increase of 140,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.44%. The weekly production of wire rod was 751,300 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 740,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 926,000 tons, an increase of 8,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 3,054,100 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The weekly consumption was 3,099,600 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%. The inventory was 3,577,800 tons, a decrease of 45,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The weekly production of cold - rolled coil was 884,300 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. The weekly consumption was 882,200 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%. The inventory was 1,587,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.92%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plate was 1,510,700 tons, a decrease of 73,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14%. The weekly consumption was 1,515,300 tons, a decrease of 66,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 0.97%. The inventory was 1,959,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,195,900 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The total weekly consumption was 8,100,000 tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.87%. The total inventory was 12,570,000 tons, an increase of 1,007,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [6]. Steel Demand Data - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 10%. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land acquisition area of 100 cities was 19% [29]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: The cement出库量 was lower than the previous year for most of 2025, and it is still lower than the same period last year in 2026. The concrete delivery volume is the same as the same period last year [32]. - **Steel Export**: In December, the steel export volume was 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high level. The export profit of hot - rolled coil has rebounded slightly recently [38]. Steel Inventory and Spread Data - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited. The East China basis of rebar has risen to around 150, which is at a high level in the same period and may be difficult to strengthen further [3]. - **Rebar Basis**: The rebar basis has strengthened slightly this week, and the absolute level is relatively high. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coil, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow, but the convergence amplitude may be weaker than in previous years under the support of low inventory [51]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The hot - rolled coil basis is running around - 0 and has strengthened slightly. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing supported by the decline in production, which supports the basis [59]. - **Rebar Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of rebar has been fluctuating in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory stopped decreasing this week, and the inventory increase is earlier from a lunar calendar perspective. After the production control in 2025 ended, the release of production capacity may lead to a relatively better supply of rebar, and the month - to - month spread is difficult to strengthen [66]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [71]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil has been reduced, and the space for further contraction is relatively limited [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

钢材：需求边际转弱，节前钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量199.55万吨（+9.25），热卷小样本产量305.41万吨（-2.95）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均228.1万吨（+0.09），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.4%（-1.6）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3410 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-141.6元/吨左右，谷电成本3245（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +23元/吨。近期随着废钢价格的上升，电炉成本持续增加，导致电炉利润下滑，本周铁水小幅复产，电炉产能利用率 有所下滑，废钢日耗在50.82万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 5 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 13 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：强现实支撑，高位震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：产业叠加 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 | 1 | 月 | 26 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 1.21%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.68%，环比减少 0.16%，同比增加 0.70% ；钢厂盈利率 40.69%，环比上周增加 0.86%，同 比去年减少 8.23%；日均铁水产量 228.1 万吨，环比增加 0.09 万吨，同比 增加 2.65 万吨。全国 45 个港口进口 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，短期价格窄幅波动 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 1 月 26 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,142 | 18 | 0.58 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,305 | 17 | 0.52 | | | | 昨日成 ...

从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 黑色建材日报 2026-01-26 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3142 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 18 元/吨（0.576%）。当日注册仓单 18487 吨, 环比减少 9757 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.18 万手，环比减少 5512 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3305 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 18 元/吨（0.547%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 301 吨。主力合约持 ...

Steel Industry - The national rebar production increased by 9.25 thousand tons to 1.9955 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 254.2 thousand tons [2] - Social inventory rose by 77.1 thousand tons to 3.0312 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 433.7 thousand tons [2] - The overall rebar demand is strong externally but weak internally, with significant growth in overseas demand compensating for domestic shortfalls [2] Hot Rolled Steel - National hot rolled steel production decreased by 2.95 thousand tons to 3.0541 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 172.3 thousand tons [3] - Social inventory fell by 4.66 thousand tons to 2.8114 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 241.8 thousand tons [3] - Domestic demand for hot rolled steel is average, and overseas demand has declined [4] Iron Ore - Iron water production slightly increased by 0.09 thousand tons to 228.1 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability rising by 0.86% to 40.69% [5][18] - Global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, with Australian shipments at 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port and steel mill inventories continue to accumulate, with increases of 2.08 million tons and 1.27 million tons respectively [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable for low-sulfur coal, while medium-sulfur coal prices increased by 100 yuan/ton [21] - Coking enterprises are experiencing production losses, with an average loss of 70 yuan/ton, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [20] - The overall demand for coke remains weak, with a slight increase in steel mill utilization rates [20] Scrap Steel - The national scrap steel price index rose by 0.6 yuan/ton to 2198.6 yuan/ton [22] - Scrap steel demand has decreased, with daily consumption falling by 0.47 thousand tons to 50.8 thousand tons [22][23] - Short-process steel mills are experiencing expanded losses, with electricity costs turning from profit to loss [22][23] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon production slightly increased by 0.29% to 191.1 thousand tons, with demand supported by steel mills' final bidding before the holiday [24] - Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3% to 98.4 thousand tons, remaining at a five-year low [25] - Inventory levels for manganese silicon remain high, with a year-on-year increase of 22 thousand tons [24]

Core Viewpoint - Ba Yi Steel is facing significant financial challenges, with projected net assets for the end of 2025 expected to be between -1.95 billion and -1.76 billion yuan, which may trigger delisting risk warnings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.05 billion to -1.85 billion yuan for 2025, with non-recurring net profit expected to be between -2.10 billion and -1.90 billion yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ba Yi Steel reported a net profit of -572 million yuan, indicating a projected fourth-quarter loss of -1.48 billion to -1.28 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 307 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's net assets were reported at -476 million yuan as of September 30, 2025, following a profit of 125 million yuan in the third quarter [2] Industry Context - The steel industry is currently undergoing a "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock" adjustment period, characterized by weak supply and demand, tightening environmental policies, and price discrepancies between raw materials and steel [3] - The company is experiencing operational pressures due to regional market challenges, including low production efficiency in winter and imbalances in supply and demand, compounded by homogeneous competition and ineffective capacity utilization [3] Strategic Response - In response to its financial difficulties, Ba Yi Steel aims to enhance its risk resilience and development capacity through a comprehensive strategy focused on cost reduction, quality improvement, market expansion, and transformation [5] - The company plans to strengthen cost control, accelerate inventory turnover, and secure profits from forward orders, while also optimizing production efficiency and expanding market channels, particularly in Central Asia and the Northwest region [5]

Economic Overview - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][15]. - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][15]. Steel Production and Demand - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][15]. - The total steel inventory reached 12.5708 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 100,700 tons, indicating a mixed supply structure with an increase in construction materials and a decrease in sheet materials [5][16]. Market Performance - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.51%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week, with a profitability rate of 40.69%, up by 0.86 percentage points [5][16]. - The production of rebar increased by 92,500 tons to 1.9955 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons, down by 25,500 tons week-on-week [6][18]. Price Trends - The current market for rebar is characterized by rising supply but weak demand, leading to a continuation of seasonal weakness in prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in steel prices [6][17]. - The trading strategy for rebar is set within a short-term range of 3,100 to 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is expected to range between 3,250 and 3,350 yuan per ton [8][19]. Alloy Market Insights - The alloy supply remains low with minimal changes in production, and the demand from steel mills is stable, leading to expectations of a continued oscillation in prices [9][20].