Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the importance of achieving high-quality development and the need for a comprehensive approach to modernize the economy and society, while addressing both domestic and international challenges [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Development - The session highlights significant achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, noting that China's economic strength, technological capabilities, and overall national power have reached new heights [3]. - It stresses the need for a focus on high-quality development, with goals including substantial improvements in technological self-reliance and social civilization [6][8]. Strategic Goals - The main objectives for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period include achieving noticeable results in high-quality development, enhancing social welfare, and ensuring national security [6][10]. - By 2035, the aim is to elevate China's economic, technological, and defense capabilities significantly, with a target for per capita GDP to reach that of moderately developed countries [6]. Innovation and Technology - The session calls for accelerating technological self-reliance and innovation, emphasizing the integration of education, technology, and talent development to enhance the national innovation system [7][8]. - It encourages the promotion of original innovation and key technology breakthroughs to foster new productive forces [7]. Market and Economic Structure - There is a strong emphasis on building a robust domestic market and creating a new development pattern that promotes consumption and investment [8]. - The session advocates for a modernized industrial system that supports the real economy, focusing on smart, green, and integrated development [6][8]. Rural and Regional Development - The importance of addressing rural issues and promoting urban-rural integration is highlighted, with a focus on enhancing agricultural productivity and living conditions in rural areas [9]. - The session also discusses optimizing regional economic layouts to promote coordinated development across different areas [9]. Cultural and Social Development - The need to invigorate cultural innovation and development is emphasized, aiming to enhance the influence of socialist culture and values [9]. - It stresses the importance of improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity through effective social policies [10]. Environmental and Security Considerations - The session underscores the commitment to green development and ecological protection, aiming for a sustainable and beautiful China [11]. - It also highlights the modernization of the national security system to ensure social stability and safety [11]. Party Leadership and Governance - The necessity of strong party leadership and governance is reiterated, with a focus on maintaining political stability and enhancing the party's capacity to lead economic and social development [12][13]. - The session calls for a collective effort from all sectors of society to achieve the goals set forth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [12][15].

Core Insights - Yunnan Province's GDP for the first three quarters exceeded 2.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1] Economic Performance - The primary industry achieved a value-added of 250.37 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% [1] - The secondary industry recorded a value-added of 739.54 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.2% [1] - The tertiary industry saw a value-added of 1.36 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.2% [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery reached 427.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - Summer grain and early rice production totaled 2.79 million tons, an increase of 0.63% compared to the previous year [1] Industrial Sector - The value-added of large-scale industries grew by 4.3%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to January-August [1] - Mining industry value-added increased by 9.7%, manufacturing by 4.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 1.9% [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 953.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 0.2%, with the primary industry investment increasing by 4.6%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [2] - The operating income of large-scale service industries was 251.23 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% [2] Income and Price Trends - The per capita disposable income of residents was 22,543 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% and a real growth of 5.1% after adjusting for price factors [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 0.1% [2] Policy and Future Outlook - The Yunnan Provincial Statistics Bureau indicated that economic indicators are stable and improving, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and employment [2] - Challenges such as insufficient effective demand and difficulties in transitioning between old and new growth drivers remain [2] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the business environment, promoting economic growth, and developing a modern industrial system unique to Yunnan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing the need to adapt to significant changes in the external environment and the importance of high-quality development to achieve modernization goals by 2035 [2][24]. Group 1: External Environment Changes - The new round of technological revolution is advancing, with artificial intelligence becoming a core area of competition, leading to increased pressure on China to enhance its independent innovation capabilities [3][27]. - Global supply chains are being restructured, shifting focus from cost and efficiency to security and stability, which presents both opportunities and challenges for China as the largest manufacturing center [3][29]. - The global governance system is undergoing transformation, with emerging multilateral mechanisms playing a significant role in addressing global issues, while traditional mechanisms struggle [3][30]. Group 2: Economic Development Characteristics - Economic growth is converging towards a medium speed, with contributions from labor diminishing due to demographic changes, while quality and efficiency are improving [4][44]. - New industrialization is advancing, with a shift towards digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in traditional industries, leading to the emergence of new manufacturing applications [4][45]. - Urbanization is transitioning from high-speed to medium-speed, focusing on improving the quality of urban life and public services [4][46]. - The green and low-carbon transition is entering a critical phase, with energy consumption growth slowing down and pollution emissions reaching peak levels [4][47]. Group 3: Market Development Strategies - Building a unified national market is essential for unleashing domestic demand potential and promoting high-quality development, requiring the removal of market barriers and the establishment of fair competition [5][10]. - The super-large market size provides significant advantages, including economies of scale, diverse production factors, and enhanced innovation capabilities, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [7][8][34]. - The construction of a unified market must address issues such as local protectionism and market segmentation to facilitate smoother resource flow and enhance market advantages [19][21]. Group 4: Challenges in Economic Development - Population decline and aging are accelerating, leading to a decrease in the labor force and impacting consumption demand, which poses a challenge to economic growth [39]. - Technological innovation is not yet aligned with the requirements for high-quality development, with insufficient investment in basic research and a lack of leading talents [40]. - The transition from traditional growth drivers to new ones is challenging, as sectors like real estate face significant adjustments, impacting overall economic performance [41]. - The pressure to shift traditional development methods is increasing, necessitating a focus on consumption-driven growth rather than investment and export-led strategies [42]. Group 5: Future Economic Trends - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for promoting high-quality development and transforming economic structures, with a focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency [43][49]. - The integration of new technologies and industries will drive economic growth, with strategic emerging industries expected to play a significant role in the future [36][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, with bond market offense favoring 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield to reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield to move towards 1.9% [3]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, China's economy showed resilience in a complex environment, with a GDP year - on - year growth rate of 4.8%, reflecting the phased pressure during the transformation from old to new growth drivers. Service consumption growth, manufacturing upgrading, and export resilience supported economic structural optimization, while negative fixed - asset investment growth and the continuous decline of real estate development investment highlighted the weakness of the traditional growth model. In Q4, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be key support measures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Aggregate - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience under double pressure, with GDP growing 5.2% year - on - year. In Q3, GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from Q2. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 5.8 trillion yuan, 36.4 trillion yuan, and 59.3 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%. The nominal GDP year - on - year growth rate dropped to 3.7% in Q3, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from Q2, and the divergence between nominal and real GDP growth continued [2]. 2. Price - The GDP deflator has been negative for 10 consecutive quarters. In the first three quarters, CPI decreased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, with core CPI performing well at a 0.6% year - on - year increase. In September, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for five consecutive months, the first time in 19 months to reach 1%. PPI decreased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the year - on - year decline has been narrowing in the past two months, with the decline in September narrowing to 2.3%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and the month - on - month rate remaining flat [2]. 3. Consumption - In Q3, consumption growth continued to decline, and social retail sales in Q4 may continue to face pressure, while service consumption remained outstanding. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.2 trillion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has declined for four consecutive months. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January to August. Service retail sales maintained a year - on - year growth rate of over 5% since March 2025. In Q4 2025, consumption growth may face a high year - on - year base and continue to be under pressure [2]. 4. Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for six consecutive months, with cumulative year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 1992 (excluding 2020). The decline in real estate development investment has expanded for seven consecutive months, being only slightly better than the extreme value in January - February 2020. Private investment has been negative for four consecutive months. Against the backdrop of local debt resolution and low general public budget revenue growth, the driving effect of infrastructure on the economy may continue to weaken, and the drag of real estate on the economy may persist [2][3]. 5. Exports - The year - on - year growth rate of exports exceeded expectations, possibly due to the low base in September last year. In the first three quarters, the total value of goods imports and exports was 33.6 trillion yuan, a 4.0% year - on - year increase. Exports increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. In September, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 4.0 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase. However, due to the possible increase in Sino - US trade frictions and high export growth rates in October and December 2024, there may still be pressure on foreign trade in Q4 [2][3]. 6. Industrial Added Value - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 6.2%, the same as that from January to August and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, it increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August and a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from September last year [2]. 7. Economic Outlook - In Q4, the downward pressure on the economy may increase. The use of policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may become more likely, and continuous attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [3]. 8. Bond Market - In September, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October, and recommends 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield will move towards 1.9% [3].

Core Insights - China continues to attract foreign investment, maintaining its position as the largest recipient among developing economies, with actual foreign investment reaching $116.24 billion in 2024 [5][27][34] - The country is implementing various policies to enhance its investment environment, including the establishment of the "Invest in China" brand and the optimization of the business environment [5][6][27] - The report analyzes foreign investment from multiple dimensions, including overall data, industry focus, international comparisons, and local initiatives [6][9][10] Comprehensive Overview - In 2024, China's actual foreign investment amounted to $116.24 billion, reflecting strong resilience despite a global decline in foreign direct investment [27][34] - The country has a robust economic foundation, a large market, and a well-developed industrial supply chain, which create favorable conditions for foreign investment [27][30] - The report outlines the overall situation of foreign investment in China, including market access, fair competition, and facilitation measures [6][9] Industry Focus - Key sectors such as healthcare, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and technology services are highlighted for their development status, investment opportunities, and policy support [6][10][11] - In 2024, the high-tech manufacturing sector saw significant foreign investment, with $13.51 billion, accounting for 43.4% of total manufacturing foreign investment [43] - The service industry attracted $82.24 billion in foreign investment, representing 70.8% of the total, with strong growth in various sub-sectors [44][46] International Comparison - The report compares China's investment environment with that of other major countries, emphasizing the trends in service industry openness and the role of key open platforms [6][10] - Asia remains the largest source of foreign investment in China, contributing $99.16 billion in 2024, which is 85.3% of the total foreign investment [50][52] Local Initiatives - The report details specific measures taken by regions such as Beijing, Jilin, Shanghai, Fujian, and Chongqing to attract foreign investment and their respective outcomes [6][10][14] - Local governments are enhancing policy frameworks and service levels to improve the effectiveness of foreign investment promotion activities [14][15]

Economic Growth and Investment Trends - The economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters of the year, aligning with expectations (consensus forecast of 5.1%), with a target of 5% for the entire year[6] - Fixed asset investment has turned negative year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in real estate development investment, which has been consistently negative and worsening as of September[6] - The current investment growth rate is at a historical low, with a 40 percentage point decrease in "expansion" compared to the end of last year, primarily due to the impact of long-term special government bonds[6] Consumer Spending and Stability - Consumer spending remains stable, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points, which is crucial for achieving annual targets[6] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant drop to 3.3% year-on-year in September, down 11 percentage points from the previous value[6] - The service sector production index maintained a year-on-year growth of 5.9% from January to September, indicating resilience in service consumption despite pressure on domestic demand[6] Manufacturing and Export Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises remained stable year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous value[6] - The mining and manufacturing sectors showed improvement, with exports increasing by 3.8% year-on-year in September, a significant recovery from a previous decline[6] - High-tech industries reported a year-on-year increase of 10.3% in added value, marking the highest level in six months[6] Future Outlook and Risks - There are concerns about internal demand pressures exceeding previous market forecasts, which may intensify in Q4, suggesting caution in growth expectations for the fourth quarter[6] - The introduction of new counter-cyclical policies, including a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool, indicates ongoing support for achieving the 5% growth target[6] - Risks include potential fluctuations in external demand due to tariffs and trade issues, as well as employment pressures from rapid changes in certain industry dynamics[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, with little pressure to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. However, there was still an obvious "uneven" economic situation [1][7]. - Macro policies have started to actively respond to the "cold" parts of the economy. Two policies targeting fixed - asset investment, especially infrastructure investment, are expected to improve the infrastructure investment growth rate in Q4 and support overall investment [1][2][9]. - For the bond market, insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery support the bond market, but the pricing may be limited. In the absence of significant macro - environment and policy surprises, the bond market may continue the "ceiling - and - floor" volatile trend [2][10]. Summaries by Sections 1. September Economic Data: Differentiation between Strong Production and Slow Demand - The macro - economy in September 2025 had characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The production end was significantly stronger than expected, while demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment were weak. External demand remained resilient, but domestic demand slowed down, especially investment [1][7][8]. - Macro policies have responded. New policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are used to supplement project capital, and the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits to local areas, 10 billion yuan more than last year. These policies are expected to support Q4 investment [1][9]. 2. Industrial Production Shows Strong Performance, Exceeding Market Expectations - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to September was 6.2%. Manufacturing upgrading continued to drive industrial resilience [3][12]. - The service production index in September increased by 5.6% year - on - year, basically flat compared with the previous month [13]. - By industry, the year - on - year growth rates of the automotive and food industries rebounded significantly in September, while those of the ferrous metal processing and electrical machinery industries declined. Emerging product output had high growth rates [15]. 3. Consumption Growth Continues to Slow, Policy Dividends Weaken - In September, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed down again. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.0%, the lowest increase this year. The policy subsidy dividend effect weakened, and the year - on - year growth rates of policy - supported home appliances and furniture declined significantly [4][18][22]. - Service consumption performed better than commodity consumption. The service retail sales in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the 4.6% of commodity retail sales [22]. 4. Investment Growth Declines Overall, Continues to Bottom Out - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [26]. - Manufacturing investment had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 4%, with weakening growth momentum. Equipment purchase investment was still resilient, but some industries were cautious in capital expenditure due to "anti - involution" policies [28][29]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 1.1%, with a further decline. Traditional infrastructure project construction slowed down, and the construction industry's slow production dragged down the investment growth rate. Fiscal policy weakening and local government debt - repayment pressure also affected funds [29]. - Real - estate investment had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 13.9% and was still bottoming out. The decline in real - estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real - estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". More relaxed real - estate policies may be needed [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The national economy of China has shown overall stability in the first three quarters, with a solid advancement in high-quality development under the strong leadership of the central government [1] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The primary industry added value was 580.61 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%, contributing 4.7% to economic growth [2] - The secondary industry added value was 3,640.20 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.9%, contributing 34.6% to economic growth [2] - The tertiary industry added value was 5,929.55 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth [2] - In the third quarter, GDP was 354.50 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] Production and Supply - All sectors showed stable growth, with agriculture increasing by 4.0%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Industrial production grew by 6.1%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to economic growth [3] - The service sector showed steady improvement, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 11.2% [3] Domestic Demand and Trade - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, adding 2.8 percentage points to GDP [4] - Capital formation contributed 17.5% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [5] - Net exports contributed 29.0% to economic growth, adding 1.5 percentage points to GDP [5] Market Dynamics and New Growth Drivers - The digital economy has shown significant support, with revenue from the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 12.1% from January to August [6] - The manufacturing sector is undergoing rapid transformation, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [6] - Investment in high-tech services grew by 6.1%, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth rate [6]

国家统计局新闻发言人表示，三季度GDP增速回落是多种因素共同作用的结果。尽管经济增速有所回 落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。实现全年预期目标（5%左右）有基础有支撑，但也需要付出艰 苦努力。 二是生产继续强于需求。9月工业增加值同比增长6.5%，与9月中国出口增速8.3%相呼应，其中高技术 制造业同比增长10.3%。9月服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%，其中信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业同 比增长12.8%，体现出产业转型升级对经济的支撑力度。 供需分化的"温差"也在价格中有所体现。三季度GDP平减指数为-1.1%，相比二季度的-1.3%略有收窄， 还需要通过改革发力、政策给力来着力缩小"温差"。尽管四季度受高基数影响，经济增速或许会面临一 定挑战，但通过政策发力，相信全年能够顺利实现5%的增长目标。 一方面，消费和出口的韧性仍强。四季度社零增速或在高基数等因素的影响下，有所放缓。但值得关注 的是，目前政策正在加大对服务消费的支持力度，且服务消费的韧性更强，预计最终消费对GDP的支撑 或有望维持一定韧性。今年9月，商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出培育 服务消费促进平台、丰富高品质服务 ...