Core Insights - The 2026 "National Subsidy" policy will continue the "old-for-new" consumption initiative with an increased budget of 500 billion yuan, aimed at stimulating consumption and stabilizing economic growth [1][3][16] Group 1: Policy Overview - The "National Subsidy" policy has shown significant results since its launch in 2024, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting 360 million people [3] - The policy will focus on three main upgrades: increasing the subsidy amount, expanding coverage to new sectors, and optimizing the distribution process [4][10] Group 2: Sectoral Impacts - Traditional consumption sectors like home appliances and automobiles are expected to see a second wave of growth, with home appliance subsidies potentially increasing from 12.84 million units to 15 million units [6][8] - The service consumption sector, particularly in tourism and health, is anticipated to become a new focal point, with over 100 billion yuan in tourism vouchers expected to be issued [6][10] - Digital and green consumption will be enhanced, with subsidies for smartphones and energy-efficient appliances, benefiting companies like Apple and Huawei [8][10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The policy aims to boost domestic demand and counter economic pressures, with expectations for retail sales growth to rebound to 5%-6% in 2026 [10] - It promotes industrial upgrades by leading consumption upgrades, encouraging innovation in sectors like electric vehicles and smart home appliances [10][14] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment targets include essential consumer goods like dairy products and condiments, as well as discretionary items like home appliances and new energy vehicles [15] - The policy is seen as a long-term opportunity for investors, with potential for valuation recovery and growth in the consumer sector [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing analyzed the current economic situation and outlined economic work for 2026, emphasizing the importance of opening up to the outside world and promoting multi-field cooperation for mutual benefits [1] Group 1: Economic Opening and Trade - The conference proposed to steadily advance institutional opening, expand autonomous opening in the service sector, and optimize the layout of free trade pilot zones, particularly focusing on the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port [1][3] - Experts noted that China's opening model is evolving from "goods trade-type opening" to "rules-institution-service system-type opening," indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive approach to international trade [2] - The integration of trade and investment, as well as domestic and foreign trade, is emphasized to enhance competitiveness and create a "dual-driven" outward-oriented economic system [9] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port Development - Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enter a new phase of full island closure operations, with a preliminary establishment of the "4321" institutional system, significantly enhancing its economic openness [3][5] - The actual use of foreign capital in Hainan has grown at an average annual rate of 14.6% over the past five years, with total foreign capital exceeding 100 billion yuan [5] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to leverage the closure as an opportunity to promote institutional opening and make Hainan a key gateway for China's new era of opening up [5] Group 3: Service Trade and Digital Trade - The conference highlighted the need to expand autonomous opening in the service sector, encouraging service exports and actively developing digital and green trade [7] - In the first ten months of 2025, China's total service trade reached 65,844.3 billion yuan, with exports growing by 14.3% [7] - Experts pointed out that enhancing standardization and expanding high-level opening are crucial for boosting service exports and achieving trade power goals [7][8] Group 4: Green Trade as a New Growth Driver - Green trade is emerging as a new driving force for foreign trade, with significant growth in exports of wind power equipment and photovoltaic products [11] - The international market for electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind energy is projected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2030, indicating vast market potential [11] - The popularity of China's energy-saving and environmentally friendly products in international markets underscores the importance of green trade in stabilizing and optimizing foreign trade [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic policy, focusing on both existing and new growth drivers rather than solely pursuing rapid growth through expansive measures [1][6] - The report highlights the importance of addressing risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and finance, indicating that progress has been made in mitigating these risks [1][6] - The capital market's focus has shifted from stabilizing the real estate and stock markets to deepening comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing [1][6] Group 2 - Fiscal policy is transitioning from increasing deficits and spending to maintaining necessary deficits and focusing on effective implementation, with an emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure [7][8] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as core KPIs [9][10] - The report stresses the need to enhance domestic demand by optimizing consumption and stabilizing investment, with specific actions to boost consumer spending and improve investment conditions [10][11] Group 3 - The technology sector remains a priority, with a focus on fostering innovation and emphasizing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative as a key area for development [12][13] - The report identifies the need to address "involution" competition through reforms, indicating that tackling this issue will be a policy focus in 2026 [13][14] - Risk mitigation strategies are shifting from prevention to active resolution, particularly in the real estate and local government debt sectors, indicating a more proactive approach to managing these risks [16][17]

据新华社消息，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向 上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。 会议部署了八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动 能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展， 促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办 实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年。中央经济工作会议在此关键节点召开，肩负着为"十五五"开篇定调、 绘制蓝图的历史使命，其政策取向将直接影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。 今年中国经济在内外部风险挑战中表现出强劲的韧性。前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，全年增速呈"前高 后低"走势。 发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，提升宏观经济治理效能。 一年一度的中央经济工作会议召开，为实现"十五五"良好开局指明了施政方向。 清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜表示 ...

数据来源：Wind 配置方向 宏观经济方面，美国9月PCE物价指数在预期内维持高位，但个人消费支出环比增幅边际回落。美国9月 PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%持平预期，高于前值2.7%；美国9月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，持平预期 和前值。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，持平预期，低于前值2.9%；美国9月核心PCE物价指 数环比上涨0.2%，持平预期和前值。美国9月个人消费支出环比上涨0.3%，持平预期值，低于前值 0.5%；美国9月实际个人消费支出环比0%，低于预期值0.1%和前值0.2%。 美国11月制造业继续收缩，服务业则加速扩张。美国11月ISM制造业指数录得48.2%，低于预期值49% 和前值48.7%美国11月ISM服务业指数录得52.6%，高于预期值52%和前值52.4%。美国11月ADP就业大 幅低于预期，专业服务、信息和制造业等多行业就业继续负增，企业招聘需求放缓。 美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，不及预期值1万人和前值4.2万人。美国12月消费者信心明显改善， 通胀预期有所回落。 美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得52.3%，好于预期值52%和前值51%。美 ...

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI increased year-on-year from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations of 0.7%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022[2] - PPI decreased year-on-year from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% compared to -2.7% in November last year[2] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather affecting production and transportation[2] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month of price rises[2] PPI Trends - PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase[3] - Seasonal demand in coal and gas industries contributed to price increases[3] - The computer and electronics sector saw a price increase of 0.1%, while the automotive sector's price decline narrowed from -0.2% to -0.1%[3] Future Inflation Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a positive year-on-year trend, with projections of around 0.7% for next year[4] - PPI is anticipated to show a recovery trend, but the timing for a positive year-on-year change remains uncertain, with estimates around -1.4% for next year[4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector are crucial for PPI stabilization[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential upward risks for CPI include improvements in service sector pricing, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand[5] - The midstream manufacturing sector's price stabilization is critical for PPI recovery, as it has been a significant drag on overall PPI performance[5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after a nine-month decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4] - Input factors such as international commodity prices have led to a mixed impact on domestic prices, with some sectors experiencing price increases while others faced declines [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in certain industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5] - Emerging industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with significant year-on-year price rises in new materials and technology sectors [6] - Future inflation is expected to remain low, providing room for growth-stimulating policies, with a gradual recovery in consumer prices anticipated [7][8]

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Demand recovery appears to be stronger, supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions, which positively impacted exports, rising to 5.9% in November after a decline in October [1][13] - The increase in working days in November contributed to the export rebound, as the "production rush" effect from previous months diminished [1][13] Group 3 - Domestic demand highlights include improvements in investment and service consumption, with the easing of debt repayment pressures potentially benefiting investment [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to remain high due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite some pressure from the decline in "trade-in" programs [2][22] Group 4 - Challenges remain, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where companies are accelerating debt repayments, which may further constrain investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with expectations of further declines in real estate investment and sales in November [3][42] Group 5 - Inflation indicators showed improvement, with the CPI expected to rise to 0.7% in November, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is projected to slightly decline to -2.2% in November, reflecting the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policies on price recovery in the downstream sectors [4][69] Group 6 - Overall, November's economic indicators suggest improvements in both quantity and price, with actual GDP growth estimated at 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth [4][78] - The demand-side improvements are more pronounced, with short-term factors positively impacting exports and easing investment pressures from debt repayment [4][78]

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Domestic demand highlights are seen in investment and service consumption, with the negative impact of debt reduction on investment potentially easing [2][22] - Investment indicators showed a general performance in November, despite a year-on-year decline of approximately 16% in construction and installation investment in October [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite pressures from the decline in trade-in programs [2][22] Group 3 - Economic growth pressure remains focused on the manufacturing sector, primarily due to companies accelerating debt repayments, which further constrains investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with November seeing further declines in real estate investment and commodity housing sales [3][42] - The sales area of commodity housing in November fell by 33.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate market [3][42] Group 4 - Inflation indicators showed improvement in November, with CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is expected to remain stable, with upstream commodity prices continuing to support it, although the recovery in mid- and downstream prices is slower [4][51] - The overall economic growth in November is projected to be around 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth despite challenges [4][78]

Economic Highlights - In November, manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in production despite high inventory constraints[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% for November, supported by accelerated inventory destocking[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November after a decline to -1.1% in October, driven by an increase in working days and reduced production overhang effects[1] Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures are alleviating as the impact of debt reduction on investment is improving, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to maintain high levels due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[2] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds has decreased to around 20%, indicating a potential improvement in investment dynamics[2] Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains under pressure due to companies prioritizing debt repayment over new investments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2% in October[2] - Real estate investment and sales are projected to decline further, with November seeing a 33.1% year-on-year drop in commodity housing sales[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector is keeping cost rates at historically high levels, impacting profitability[2] Inflation and Price Trends - November's CPI is expected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables (10.1%) and gold[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities like coal and copper, despite weak downstream price recovery[3] - Core CPI is likely to show limited improvement, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the downstream sector[3]