化工日报 | 2025-10-16 库存回升，EG偏弱运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4057元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.10%），EG华东市场现货价4122 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-28元/吨，幅度-0.67%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）65元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。早 间受已有船舶加征港务费消息影响，乙二醇盘面小幅抬升，随后市场维持窄幅震荡。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-67美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-474元/吨（环比 -43元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.1万吨（环比+3.4万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为44.3万吨（环比+4.3万吨）。据CCF数据，10.9~10.12主港实际到货总数8.7万吨，港 口库存继续累库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.2万吨，中性，副港计划到港量2.5万吨，库存或延续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of EB2511 is expected to weaken, with the daily range estimated to be around 6480 - 6600 [3]. - The output and capacity utilization rate of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. The mismatch between upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. The inventory pressure is relatively high and may maintain a slow destocking trend. The cost support effect is gradually strengthening [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures active contracts is 433,433 lots, with a decrease of 7,309 lots; the closing price of the active contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the long position of the top 20 holders is 299,752 lots, with a decrease of 4,064 lots; the net long position is - 20,008 lots, with a decrease of 7,092 lots; the short position is 440,525 lots, with an increase of 1,325 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,341 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots [2]. - The closing price of the November contract is 6,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 6600 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,020 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 6,675 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), 6,615 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), and 6,585 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 716 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene is 695.86 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF Taiwan price is 250 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 655 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,630 yuan/ton, and 5,510 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.61%, with an increase of 2.37%. The national styrene inventory is 193,863 tons, with a decrease of 9,411 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports is 19.65 million tons, with a decrease of 0.54 million tons; the trade inventory in East China's main ports is 12.15 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2]. Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th , China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2.37% [2]. - From October 3rd to 9th , the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 239,800 tons [2]. - As of October 9th , the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous period. As of October 13th , the styrene inventory in East China's ports was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 2.67% from the previous period; the inventory in South China's ports was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 11.59% [2]. - As of October 13th , the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,204.32 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 499.32 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon supply increased in October, putting pressure on prices, but there is cost support below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, consider going long on a trial basis [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable, with high - level fluctuations. The increasing supply pressure may cause prices to decline, but if the spot is strong, there is still strong support below. The quality of futures delivery products is good, which may bring trading opportunities on the futures market. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders [2]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the driving force for rubber prices is limited. It is expected that rubber prices will run around 15,500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space [3]. Logs - There is no obvious driving force in the current log supply and demand. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and there is certain support below the price during the seasonal peak season [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to continue the short - selling strategy on rebounds. Glass sales are sluggish, the market price is weak, and the trading is bearish during the peak season. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average market price of oxygen - passing Si5530 industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a decrease of 220% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 42.08 million tons, an increase of 3.51 million tons compared to the previous year, a growth of 9.1% [1]. Inventory Changes - The weekly inventory of factories in Xinjiang was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons compared to the previous week, a growth of 2.07% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 was stable at 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The price of the main contract was 49,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a growth of 2.56% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly polysilicon output was 3.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous week, a decline of 0.32% [2]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 million tons, an increase of 1.40 million tons compared to the previous period, a growth of 6.19% [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of 2CRML rubber from South China was 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production was 458.80 million tons, a decrease of 2.00 million tons compared to the previous year, a decline of 0.43% [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory was 456,525 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.01% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the 2511 log contract was 787.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 15.5 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.93% [4]. Supply - In September, the port shipping volume was 1.766 million cubic meters, an increase of 100,000 cubic meters compared to August, a growth of 6% [4]. Inventory - As of October 10, the national log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a growth of 4.55% [4]. Demand - As of October 10, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a decline of 13% [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation was 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, a decline of 0.81% [5]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Supply - The soda ash weekly output was 770,800 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons compared to the previous week, a growth of 3.37% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory warehouse inventory was 62.824 million heavy boxes, an increase of 3.469 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a growth of 5.84% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09% compared to the previous period [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillating Weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC. Some are rated as "Oscillating", such as PVC and caustic soda [3][7][8] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure. Crude oil's fundamentals are continuously pressured due to the increase in supply and the weakening of geopolitical support. Most energy and chemical products' prices are affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of the macro - environment. New device investment news in the chemical industry also impacts market expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Crude oil futures have broken below the lower edge of the shock platform, and the global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026, creating a record high annual surplus. The price structure of Brent and China's SC has changed to Contango. Chemical industry has new device investment news, such as 3 million tons of new PTA devices and 600,000 tons of new styrene devices, which may be put into production before the end of October [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - The IEA月报 slightly lowered the demand forecast and raised the supply forecast, increasing concerns about surplus. The global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC + production, and there is pressure on crude oil inventory accumulation. Geopolitical support is weakening, and macro - risks are fluctuating [7] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price follows the decline of crude oil. The OPEC + group's production increase, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export discount to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in geopolitical premiums. The supply of asphalt is increasing, and the pressure on inventory accumulation is still large [8] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both follow the decline of crude oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is a negative factor, and the demand is still weak. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the increase in supply [8][10] Methanol - Affected by the drag of olefins and high inventory, the price is in a shock - finishing state. The high inventory and the expectation of winter reduction still affect the price. The parking time of Iranian methanol enterprises in winter has been gradually extended in the past three years [2] Urea - The market sentiment has declined, and the price is under pressure. The spot price has increased, but the futures price has decreased due to the weakening of market sentiment [19][20] Ethylene Glycol - The inflection point of port inventory has appeared, and there is pressure on supply - demand expectations. The market is in a state of small inventory accumulation in the short term [13] PX - The decline in oil prices has led to the collapse of costs, and there is no new positive news in supply and demand. The supply side still maintains a high load, and the price is affected by cost disturbances [11] PTA - The news of new device investment has depressed market expectations. Under the resonance of cost and supply - demand, the price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the basis remains weak [11] Short - Fiber - Affected by cost, the price has decreased, but the supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the processing fee has increased slightly [15] Bottle - Chip - The collapse of cost has led to the decline of price. The processing fee is relatively stable, and the export price has been lowered [16] Propylene - The cost has decreased, and the tariff game has restarted, resulting in a weak shock [25] PP - The support from the raw material side is limited, and the price has decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [24] Plastic - Affected by the decline in oil prices and macro - disturbances, the price is in a weak shock. The upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, which suppresses the price [23] Styrene - There are still concerns about inventory over - filling. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, the high port inventory is still a major pressure [13] PVC - The fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is in a shock state. The cost has decreased, the production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is weak [26] Caustic Soda - The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price can stop profit when it is low. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but attention should be paid to future inventory replenishment and profit changes [27] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - It includes cross - period spreads, basis and warehouse receipts, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, reflecting the price differences and changes between different varieties and different periods [29][30][32] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data are not detailed in the text, it is expected to monitor the basis and spread changes of chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [33][45][57] 4. Commodity Index - On October 14, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all showed a decline. The energy index also declined, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a 5 - day decline of 5.67%, a 1 - month decline of 6.59%, and a decline of 7.87% since the beginning of the year [274][276]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority decline in the night session on October 14, with energy products leading the drop, particularly low-sulfur fuel oil which fell by 1.90% [1] Group 1: Energy Products - Low-sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.90% [1] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - All non-metallic building materials saw a decline, with glass dropping by 1.48% [1] Group 3: Chemical Products - Most chemical products declined, with PTA falling by 1.30% [1] Group 4: Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils also experienced a decline, with soybean oil decreasing by 0.65% [1] Group 5: Black Metals - The black metal sector mostly declined, with iron ore dropping by 0.51% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed gains, with corn increasing by 0.43% [1]

光大期货指出，美国最新制裁名单生效，虽然伊朗装运仍然偏高，但已有国内企业暂停接受制裁船舶停 靠，因此后续到港量受此影响将有所回落，并且中美贸易摩擦重新升级导致原油价格下探，短期对化工 品估值影响偏空，但甲醇更多是受进口制裁影响，因此表现或强于下游烯烃产品，建议关注多甲醇空聚 烯烃的策略，以及月间正套策略。 东海期货表示，当前甲醇市场面临的核心矛盾在于供应增速远超需求复苏。内地与国际供应同步增加， 进口到港量显著提升，而下游需求的恢复力度相对有限，导致内地与港口库存不降反升，加剧供应过剩 格局。疲软的外需与有限的内需，使得去库进程艰难。特别是正处历史高位的库存，对价格形成绝对压 制。综合来看，供应过剩与高库存是当前市场的核心利空，预计甲醇价格将维持震荡偏弱运行。 目前来看，甲醇行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于甲醇后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 华联期货分析称，伊朗的船只制裁，伊朗的航线运力受损，进口受阻，企业库存低位持稳，MTO开工 率升至高位，短期需求有支撑，但是，电煤需求一般，煤价或承压运行，甲醇成本端驱动偏弱，国内企 业生产积极，开工率偏高，进口量同比大幅增加，供应压力较大，传统需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The main port of ethylene glycol (EG) continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is operating weakly. The spot price of EG in the East China market increased by 2.65% compared to the previous trading day, and the futures price also slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas EG supply. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has rebounded after hitting the bottom [2]. - The strategy includes: cautiously short - selling on rallies for single - side trading; conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 for inter - period trading; and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,111 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton, +0.27% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,178 yuan/ton (up 108 yuan/ton, +2.65% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - based EG was - 527 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, the demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.1 tons (up 3.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (up 4.3 tons month - on - month). From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main port was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.5 tons, with the inventory likely to continue to accumulate [1].

Energy Sector - International oil prices have shown a significant decline during the recent pricing cycle, leading to a reduction of 70 CNY per ton for gasoline and 75 CNY per ton for diesel in China[1] - The average price drop for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 diesel is 0.06 CNY per liter, resulting in a savings of 3 CNY for filling a 50-liter tank with 92 octane gasoline[1] Agricultural Sector - The price of eggs has decreased significantly, with a reported drop of 17.47% to 6.0 CNY per kilogram[37] Transportation Sector - The Ministry of Transport has implemented a special port service fee for U.S. owned or operated vessels, affecting various categories of ships, including those with 25% or more U.S. ownership[1] Chemical Industry - The PTA operating rate is declining, indicating a slowdown in production within the chemical sector[3] Coal Consumption - Power plants are currently operating at low coal consumption levels, reflecting a decrease in energy demand[3] Real Estate Market - There has been a slight improvement in commodity housing sales in second and third-tier cities, suggesting a potential recovery in the real estate market[3] Flight Operations - Domestic flight schedules remain stable, indicating consistent demand in the transportation sector[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino-US trade conflict has a drag on the chemical industry as a whole [3] - The de-stocking rate of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. The resumption rate of CPL and aniline production may be limited, and there is still inventory pressure in PA6, nylon filament, and MDI. The concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October will drag down the demand for pure benzene [3] - The inventory pressure of styrene at ports persists. The提货 performance of downstream products is average. EPS is waiting to recover from its seasonal low in production, PS production continues to decline and its post-festival inventory pressure increases, ABS production recovers from a low level but its inventory pressure further rises. There are both maintenance and new production capacity impacts on the supply side. Overseas demand is still weak, and the import pressure from overseas to China will rise [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is 38 yuan/ton (+32), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 70 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 15 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Overseas Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 129 dollars/ton (+4 dollars/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is 116 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 72.5 dollars/ton (-4.0 dollars/ton). The import profit and various regional spreads are also involved in the data [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 499 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress. Import profit and various regional spreads are also included in the data [1] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 9.00 million tons (-0.10 million tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned in the text. The relevant figure shows the operating rate [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 121,500 tons (+5,100 tons), and the operating rate is 73.6% (+2.4%) [1] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 212 yuan/ton (-130 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 40.74% (-2.37%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 188 yuan/ton (-110 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.60% (-1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 9 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 72.50% (+1.50%) [2] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1920 yuan/ton (-65), and the operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 618 yuan/ton (-312), and the operating rate of phenol is 78.00% (-1.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+140), and the operating rate is 77.16% (+1.12%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1373 yuan/ton (-50), and the operating rate is 66.90% (+4.00%) [1]

化工周报 | 2025-10-12 主港大幅累库，EG价格偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 价格价差：本周乙二醇盘面大幅下跌，市场商谈一般。假期内原油市场表现偏弱，乙二醇供应端表现宽松。乙二 醇港口库存大幅堆积，国庆假期前后外轮集中抵港，主港大幅累库，市场心态表现偏弱。乙二醇内盘重心持续走 低。 供应：中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在75.08%（环比上周+2.00%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇 开工负荷在78.83%（环比上周+4.47%）。本周几套合成气制装置重启，EG总负荷回升至高位，关注裕龙石化顺利 出料后的运行情况，以及福炼、盛虹等装置检修落地，预计国内供应较为宽裕。 需求：江浙织机负荷70.0%（环比上周+0.0%），江浙加弹负荷82.0%（环比上周+1.0%），聚酯开工率91.50%（环比 上周+0.00%），直纺长丝负荷93.80%（环比上周+0.20%）。POY库存天数20.0天（环比上周+5.7天）、FDY库存天数 21.4天（环比上周+4.7天）、DTY库存天数29.7天（环比上周+3.2天）。涤短工厂开工率94.3%（-1.1%），涤短工厂权 益库存天数10.0天（环比上周+0.8 ...