Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral market and suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ for spreads [1]. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production of pure benzene will exceed the incremental demand from downstream production, leading to a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene may maintain a weak and low - volatility oscillation. For styrene, the new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. But the current port inventory of styrene is still high. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - In 2026, the nominal new production plan of pure benzene is 2.81 million tons/year, with the actual capacity growth weighted by production time at 1.37 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate at 4.8%. The nominal growth in pure benzene demand due to new downstream capacity in China in 2026 is only 2.59 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is only 0.64 million tons/year, with a demand growth rate of only 2.2%, significantly slower than in 2025. The annual balance sheet of pure benzene is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [7]. - In 2026, the nominal capacity growth of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth weighted by production time is 0.013 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 0.5%, significantly slower than in 2025. The nominal growth in styrene demand due to the production of three major hard plastics in China in 2026 is 1.88 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is 0.87 million tons/year, driving a 5.3% demand growth rate. In 2026, styrene may shift from a stockpiling to a destocking cycle, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream inventory operation is lower than expected [8]. Market Analysis - The new production of pure benzene in 2026 exceeds the incremental demand from downstream production, and it is expected to enter a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and will oscillate at a low level. Styrene's new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [9]. Strategy - On an annual basis, the unilateral price will oscillate in a range. In the first half of the year, the production pressure of pure benzene still exists, and the price will oscillate weakly. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to whether the summer gasoline blending and crude oil prices can support the unilateral price. For spreads, pay attention to widening the EB - BZ spread at low levels, especially in the first half of the year. In terms of inter - period trading, BZ still favors reverse arbitrage, while EB should track the annual inventory reduction rhythm for positive arbitrage opportunities [10]. Annual Balance Sheet Estimation Pure Benzene & EB - **Pure Benzene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the pressure on pure benzene still exists, but the downstream production is limited. The total supply of pure benzene in China will increase by 2.7%, and the total demand will increase by 1.5%. The inventory change will be a 280,000 - ton increase, with an inventory change rate of 0.9% [17]. - **Styrene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the new production of styrene will slow down, and it is waiting for further inventory digestion. The total supply of styrene in China will decrease by 0.6%, and the total demand will increase by 2.1%. The inventory change will be a 130,000 - ton decrease [21]. 2026 China Pure Benzene & Styrene Production Situation - The nominal capacity growth rate of pure benzene in China in 2026 is 9.8% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 4.8%), and the nominal capacity growth rate of styrene is 3.9% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 0.5%), significantly slower than in 2025 [26]. - The main large - scale pure benzene production in 2026 will be Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei in the third quarter, with greater production pressure in Q1 and Q4. The production of styrene will slow down significantly in 2026, mainly focusing on Huajin Aramco in the fourth quarter. Before the start of the peak summer gasoline - blending season, the EB - BZ spread is expected to widen in the first half of the year [28][29]. Styrene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, styrene had a profit recovery and inventory reduction in the first half of the year and then entered a loss - making and production - reduction pattern in the second half. The main maintenance periods were in April - May and October - November, especially for non - integrated plants using purchased pure benzene in October - November [31]. - In 2025, the overseas styrene maintenance increased, but the export did not increase further. The overseas demand for styrene was weak, resulting in the situation where increased overseas maintenance did not significantly support China's styrene export [45]. - In 2025, the styrene port inventory accumulated to a historical high and is waiting for digestion. The main reasons for the inventory increase were the weakening of downstream demand and the impact of new production [67]. EB Downstream Situation - In the second half of 2025, the production schedule growth rate of white goods significantly declined. The export of white goods decreased due to the tariff war, and the domestic sales also decreased due to the exhaustion of government subsidies [70]. - In 2026, the planned production of EPS is 0.82 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.1%; the planned production of PS is 0.87 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 10.1%; the planned production of ABS is 0.4 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.3%. The production growth rate of ABS will slow down in 2026 [91]. Pure Benzene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the pure benzene port inventory had great pressure. The processing fee of pure benzene decreased throughout the year, and the port inventory reached a relatively high historical level in July, mainly due to weak overseas demand and poor performance of domestic downstream industries [102]. - In 2025, the summer gasoline blending in the US was weak, and more pure benzene from South Korea was diverted to China, resulting in a significant increase in China's pure benzene imports. The gasoline demand in the US in 2025 was weak, especially in the peak season from June to August, which affected the Asian aromatic hydrocarbon market [107]. Pure Benzene Downstream Situation - In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was weak. The downstream operation of pure benzene was significantly differentiated, with the demand for pure benzene mainly supported by the high operation of styrene. The non - styrene downstream industries of pure benzene had little demand growth or even negative growth [121]. - In 2026, the planned production of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.9%; the planned production of phenol is 1.08 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.1%; the planned production of aniline is 0.3 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.2%; the planned production of adipic acid is 0.6 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.5%. In the first half of 2026, the new demand for pure benzene from downstream production will be less than the new pure benzene production capacity, and the pure benzene processing fee is expected to be weak. In the third and fourth quarters, the downstream production of pure benzene will gradually exceed its own production [128][131].

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 等待港库拐点， 做缩EB-BZ价差 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/11/29 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场情绪回暖，大宗商品涨跌各现。 估值：苯乙烯周度跌幅（成本＞现货＞期货），基差走弱，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格下跌-2.29%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格下跌-2.22%，纯苯基差下跌1元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率68.95%，环比下降-0.43%，同比去年上涨6.73%，较5年同期下降-4.37%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复，开 工率随之上升。 进出口：9月国内纯苯进口量为496.77万吨，环比上涨14.18%，同比去年上涨14.50%，主要为中东地区货源。9月EB进口量33.12 万吨，环比上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,873 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.54%; the spot basis in East China EG was 11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 1,027 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons, unchanged month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 70.8 tons, up 7.5 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 9.5 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 1.4 tons. As of November 27, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 70.8 tons, an increase of 3.95 tons from Monday [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has declined from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants are under great production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in overseas ethylene glycol plants. The port inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there are still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provides some support, but orders are marginally weakening [2] - The production pressure of new capacity is large. As the port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. However, the price of ethylene glycol has dropped to a nearly two - year low, and the negative feedback of high - cost plants has gradually emerged, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure [3] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,873 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,889 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.54%; the spot basis in East China EG was 11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 1,027 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester is at a low level, and the load provides some support, but orders are marginally weakening [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons, unchanged month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 70.8 tons, up 7.5 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 9.5 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 1.4 tons. As of November 27, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 70.8 tons, an increase of 3.95 tons from Monday [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core View - The EG contract closed at 3896 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 3910 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.20%. The EG spot basis in East China was 18 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit for ethylene - based EG was -60 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton, and for coal - based syngas EG was -1025 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (CCF data, unchanged) and 63.3 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports this week are 9.5 tons, and at the secondary ports are 1.4 tons, indicating a slightly lower - than - normal level overall [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants face production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, with a stable short - term port inventory, but there are plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December. On the demand side, the low - inventory polyester load provides some support, but orders are weakening marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract price and the East China spot price changed, and the basis decreased [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas EG have changed, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level [1][2]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis was provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The low - inventory polyester load provides support, but orders are marginally weaker [2]. Inventory Data - Different inventory data from CCF and Longzhong are presented, and the planned arrivals are analyzed, with an expectation of stable and slightly decreasing inventory [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage may have eased, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, which suppresses its processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with phenol operations rising but aniline and adipic acid operations falling, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, overseas, South Korean companies plan to merge and close a cracking unit, and attention should be paid to whether the styrene unit will stop. Domestically, port inventories have risen again, and styrene is in a low - operation maintenance stage with postponed restart plans. The focus now is on downstream operations, which are still at a low level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 143 yuan/ton (- 32), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 110 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 52 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [1]. - Suggested strategy: EB2512 - EB2601 for inter - period positive arbitrage at low prices [3]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 99 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 85 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 159 yuan/ton (+ 64 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1]. - Suggested strategy: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories and Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 tons (+ 1.70 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+ 15,900 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+ 6,900 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1]. - Pure benzene downstream: Caprolactam operating rate is 88.23% (+ 2.18%), phenol operating rate is 79.00% (+ 12.00%), aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.49%), adipic acid operating rate is 55.50% (- 6.50%) [1]. - Styrene operating rate is 69.0% (- 0.3%) [1]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 31 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 69 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 553 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 56.27% (+ 4.64%), PS operating rate is 55.90% (+ 0.50%), ABS operating rate is 72.40% (+ 0.60%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 820 yuan/ton (+ 30), phenol - ketone production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is 499 yuan/ton (+ 3), adipic acid production profit is - 1263 yuan/ton (- 18) [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: TA maintains a high - maintenance state, downstream shows no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so TA's inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the cost - end PX has a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long in the positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. - **MEG**: With supply reduction and high - opening of polyester, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the valuation compression space may be limited. Short - term selling of put options can be considered, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. - **Polyester Short Fiber**: In the short term, the inventory pressure is limited, but in the long term, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device launches are approaching, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a non - high level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Changes**: Naphtha price changes from 62.5 to 63.4, PX CFR Taiwan from 558 to 573, PTA inner - market spot from 824 to 833, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarts. Some proximal TA devices are under maintenance, the start - up rate decreases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve [3]. MEG - **Price Changes**: Northeast Asia ethylene price remains at 730, MEG outer - market price from 452 to 463, etc. The MEG spot basis is around +13 for 01 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device restarts; Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Proximal domestic oil - making increases load, coal - making has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates [6]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price Changes**: 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price changes from 6340 to 6385, etc. The spot price is around 6315, and the market basis is around - 100 for 01 [6]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. The downstream demand is stable, but in the long term, the pattern may weaken [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber changes from 1815 to 1825, and the weekly change is - 25. There are also various price spreads and processing profit changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains at 730, pure benzene (CFR China) from 660 to 685, etc. There are also changes in domestic profits of styrene and its downstream products [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated mention of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, weak coal prices, supply - demand changes in the spot market, the impact of downstream PP on PL, and the rebound of external propane prices leading to continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls in the industrial end driving up spot prices, while negative factors are the lack of significant negative feedback in PDH despite losses and the weak downstream demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1232 and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 0.5581 [1]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices (PL2603, sell, 50%, entry range 6100 - 6200) and sell call options (PL2601C6000, sell, 25%, entry range 60 - 80) [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices (PL2603, buy, 25%, entry range 5700 - 5800) and sell put options (PL2601P5700, sell, 25%, entry range 50 - 70) [1]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly mentioned, but there is no actual progress, and coal prices are relatively weak recently [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. This week, supply decreased and demand increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and raising the overall spot price. In Shandong, after device overhauls and some downstream restarts, the spot price rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - The main downstream product PP has sufficient supply. Recently, the compression of the PP - PL price has led to new lows in the PP end, suppressing the space for PL and causing a divergence between PL's futures and spot prices [2]. - The external propane price has rebounded, with the calculated cost at around 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the calculated PDH profit is continuously in the red. Currently, there is no more feedback on overhauls [2]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors: Device overhauls in the industrial end, such as those of Binhua, Haiwei, and Xintai, have led to a rebound in the spot price from the low level [3]. - Negative factors: Although PDH is in a loss state, there is still no significant negative feedback in the short term, and the supply end remains high; the PP downstream is weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with high supply pressure and continuous new lows in the market, and most other downstream products are also in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced propylene [3][5]. 3.4 Industrial Data Summary - Upstream raw material prices: Brent crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel on November 25, 2025, down 0.83 dollars from the previous day and 2.46 dollars from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as WTI, MOPJ, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - Mid - stream propylene prices: On November 25, 2025, the propylene price in East China was 5945 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 yuan from the previous week; the price in Shandong was 6020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan from the previous day and 130 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Downstream prices: On November 25, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week; the price of polypropylene pellets was 6400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Profits: The main refinery profit was 854.72 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 240.83 yuan/ton. Different production methods and products had different profit situations [6]. - Price spreads: Various price spreads such as PL01 - 02, PP01 - PL01, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weaker and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [3]. - For crude oil, if the geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - For other products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., they are mostly in a state of volatile trends, with specific outlooks varying according to their respective supply - demand and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - **Market News**: The number of active oil rigs in the US decreased significantly. US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week of November 21, 2025. Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the Ukrainian side denied agreeing to the US peace plan [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue continuously disturbs the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The increase in net imports led to an increase in crude oil inventory. The overall supply - surplus situation still exerts pressure on inventory accumulation [8][9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: It oscillates around the key level of 3000 [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The Venezuelan raw material supply may be disrupted. The futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot, and the spot price in Shandong has stabilized, supporting the futures price. However, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - **Main Logic**: It follows the decline of refined oil products. Although it is supported by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, the overall demand is facing headwinds such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The production suspension progresses rapidly, and the futures price rises again [3]. - **Main Logic**: The Chinese methanol port inventory decreased. The Iranian device shutdown progressed rapidly. The domestic market was affected by multiple positive factors such as improved market sentiment, reduced port arbitrage, increased olefin external procurement demand, and tightened supply [31]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: The inventory significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Main Logic**: Although the supply is at a high level and the demand is weak, the inventory decreased significantly, which promoted the futures price to rise slightly [32]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range. Pay attention to the dynamics of oil - based devices [3]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, there is no further positive support on the supply - demand side. Some domestic coal - based devices are about to restart, but the downstream polyester demand still provides support [24][25]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost performance is average, and the efficiency is maintained under a good supply - demand pattern [3]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating weakly, and the cost support for PX is general. The downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and the peak season, and the polyester segment provides support for PX [16]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired [3]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally stable, and PX prices are relatively firm. The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the downstream polyester load remains high. There is a possibility of phased inventory reduction in November - December [16][17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream [3]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The short - fiber price follows the cost and oscillates [27][28]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate [3]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has a certain support for the polyester bottle - chip price, but the trading atmosphere has declined after the price increase, and the processing fee fluctuates in a narrow range [29]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL oscillates [3]. - **Main Logic**: The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [37]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance [3]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating and falling. The fundamental support for PP is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level. The focus is on the changes in maintenance [36]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices decline, the maintenance support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [3]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The fundamental support for plastics is limited, the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [34][35]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending for oil fades, and it returns to oscillation [3]. - **Main Logic**: The driving force of blending for oil is questionable, and after the premium is squeezed out, the downward space is limited. The supply - demand contradiction in December - January is not significant [22]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventory suppresses, and PVC may anchor production reduction [3]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level policies in December may affect market expectations. At the micro - level, the high inventory of PVC is difficult to reduce, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction [38]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: It operates in a weak supply - demand and low - valuation state with oscillation [3]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, pay attention to the influence of the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest - rate decision in December. At the micro - level, the supply - demand of caustic soda is expected to be poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. are provided, showing their latest values and changes [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including their latest values and changes [42]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content other than the product names (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is provided for detailed analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases, while the PPI commodity index decreased slightly [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index showed a decline, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day decline of 2.23%, a 1 - month decline of 4.55%, and a year - to - date decline of 9.17% [286].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mixed on November 26, with chemical products leading the gains, particularly methanol which rose by 1.82% [1] - All non-metallic building materials increased, with glass up by 1.27% [1] - Most energy products saw an increase, with LPG rising by 0.52% [1] Group 2 - The black series experienced the largest declines, with coke falling by 0.96% [1] - Most oilseeds and oils decreased, with rapeseed oil down by 0.46% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with corn dropping by 0.40% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to decline. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure. Overseas ethylene glycol plant changes were limited, and the port inventory was expected to remain stable in the short term, but there were still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure [2]. International Price Difference - No specific international price difference data was provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2].