Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts in Iran driving oil prices, which in turn influence the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Once the geopolitical tensions ease, the market will return to fundamentals. The weak demand for CPL and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene, combined with the pressure of South Korean pure benzene exports to China and high port inventories, keep the processing fees of pure benzene low, dragging down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the domestic and overseas maintenance peak, the average operation of downstream PS and ABS, and the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of terminal production scheduling, styrene is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are expected to be further compressed. Therefore, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2][9][151]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **2025 Pure Benzene and Downstream Production Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there are plans to add 210 million tons/year of pure benzene production capacity, with 97 million tons/year already realized and 113 million tons/year to be realized in the second half of the year. The production capacity expansion rate is 2.8% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4. Attention should be paid to the progress of the 2 reforming and cracking of Yulong Petrochemical's Phase I project. For styrene, the production capacity expansion pressure increases in the second half of the year, with only 500,000 tons of Yulong put into production at the beginning of the year, and the commissioning of Zhongtai Chemical postponed [7][22][23]. - **Pure Benzene Supply**: In the first half of 2025, pure benzene maintenance was concentrated, but port inventory pressure increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene production from January to May was 2.8%, mainly due to concentrated refinery maintenance from April to May. After June, domestic production capacity utilization rebounded rapidly. The port inventory pressure was due to a 62.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in imports from January to May and the weak downstream operation, especially the decline in CPL and aniline operations. The negative basis structure of pure benzene deepened to around - 80 yuan/ton in July, and the processing fees were at a historical low [36][38]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was less resilient than expected. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene industrial demand from January to May was 11%, with the growth rate of styrene production at 15% and the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand at 9% (21% in the previous year). CPL and aniline operations declined, while phenol operation was fair but later entered a loss state again, and adipic acid was in an over - supply and loss - reduction cycle [72]. - **Styrene Fundamentals**: In 2025, styrene production profits recovered in the first half of the year, and the operation rate increased. However, with the increase in domestic and overseas supply, production profits are expected to decline. In the first half of the year, overseas maintenance was concentrated, driving exports and reducing port inventories. In the second half of the year, as overseas operations resumed, ports will return to the inventory accumulation cycle. The styrene port inventory reached a historical low in May, and the basis fluctuated greatly. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand from the five major downstream industries of styrene from January to May was 11.7%. The production growth rates of PS and ABS were high but mainly converted into finished - product inventory pressure. The production capacity expansion of the three major hard plastics in 2025 was significant, but the actual demand increase may be less than expected [78][90][118]. 2. Market Analysis - In June, geopolitical conflicts in Iran drove oil prices, which in turn influenced the prices of pure benzene and styrene. After the conflicts eased, the market returned to fundamentals. The weak downstream demand for pure benzene and the high port inventory pressure dragged down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the maintenance peak and the decline in terminal production scheduling, it is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are under pressure [9]. 3. Strategy - Cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies. Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [10][151].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the wave of "anti-involution" sweeping through various industries, indicating a new round of supply-side reforms is imminent. The focus is on promoting product quality and orderly exit of outdated capacities [5][22] - The chemical industry is expected to see an optimization of supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies benefiting from improved management and energy control [5][22] Summary by Sections Industry Trends and Events - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.74% this week, with 292 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [17] - The report tracks price fluctuations in various chemical products, noting that 43 products increased in price while 120 decreased over the past week [18] Key Products Tracking - Refrigerants are experiencing a steady price increase due to quota implementation, with significant price rises observed for R22 (+77%), R32 (+272%), R125 (+107%), and R134a (+115%) since September 2023 [23][24] - The polyester filament industry is seeing a concentration in supply, with the top six companies holding over 80% of the market share. Future capacity growth is expected to slow to 3-4% annually [31] - The metal silicon and organic silicon sectors are witnessing upward price trends, driven by the photovoltaic industry and recent production cuts [35] Recommendations and Beneficiaries - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical, among others [6] - Beneficiaries of the anti-involution trend include companies in the refrigerant sector like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co., as well as polyester filament producers like Xinfengming and Tongkun [6][31][35]

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约跌0.43%。周三宏观与地缘方面的利多支撑未能延续，6月非农就 业的超预期表现弱化美联储降息预期,在美越贸易协议之后,临近7月9日豁免到期大限美国与其他 大多数国家的贸易协议悬而未决；伊核争端也有重回谈判与制裁博弈模式的迹象，中东军事冲突风 险短期可控。原油供需面宽松主题延续,上周全球石油库存进一步累增,旺季因素亦难扭转 OPEC+快速增产预期之下的累库趋势。原油供需指引仍偏负面,关注宏观及地缘因素摇摆风险。 (责金属) 隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百分点至 4.1%、就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震荡， 关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜高位震荡收跌，6月非农就业及失业率好于预期，调降7月联储降息概率，美元指数走强。 国内现铜昨报80980元,注意2507合约减仓节奏。技术上,周内沪铜涨势测试8.1万。中长期趋势交 易仍建议关注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。昨日各地区现货转向 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the establishment of a coordinator mechanism by Hangzhou Customs to assist AEO (Authorized Economic Operator) enterprises in resolving customs-related issues, significantly improving their clearance efficiency and market competitiveness [1][3]. - The coordinator team operates through an "online + offline" model, providing 24/7 responses, cross-department collaboration, and precise policy implementation to address various customs challenges faced by AEO enterprises [1][3]. - Since the mechanism's inception, Hangzhou Customs has resolved over 200 issues for AEO enterprises, demonstrating its effectiveness in facilitating smoother customs processes [1]. Group 2 - Zhejiang Shuanghuan Transmission Machinery Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of compliance capability enhancement after becoming an AEO enterprise, which has helped them identify and rectify risks in their import and export documentation process [3]. - The customs coordinator mechanism allows enterprises to enjoy expedited customs procedures, priority inspections, and reduced inspection rates, contributing to overall operational efficiency [3]. - As of March, the customs coordinator team is expanding, and Hangzhou Customs has launched an online service initiative to address urgent needs of enterprises, ensuring responsive support for their development [3]. Group 3 - According to customs statistics, there are currently 220 AEO enterprises in the jurisdiction of Hangzhou Customs, which accounted for an import and export volume of 141.38 billion yuan from January to May this year, representing 6.3% of Zhejiang's total foreign trade [5]. - These AEO enterprises are positioned as leaders in the high-level development of Zhejiang's foreign trade [5].

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 海外装置运行不稳，EG震荡上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4299元/吨（较前一交易日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动+32元/吨，幅度+0.74%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）74元/吨（环比+5元/ 吨）。沙特装置因电力因素大面积短停，同时马来西亚一套75万吨/年的乙二醇装置上游裂解因故停车，乙二醇装置 运行稳定性欠佳，海外产量恢复不如预期，EG价格震荡上行。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为2元/吨（环比-7 元/吨）。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单陆续注销流出 后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。 需求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂7月初检修计划集中，需求预期偏弱，关注实际兑现情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating Core Views - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with most varieties showing a bearish outlook both in the short and medium - term, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2] - The current market hype about "anti - involution" in the energy and chemical sector regarding "backward production capacity" and "orderly exit" should be treated calmly, as the impact on raw materials may not be positive [3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory and the US peak season, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply during the OPEC+ production increase cycle [4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507 [4] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production starts remain at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is neutral, and the fundamentals are weak, with an expected significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium - term [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 7340 [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's mixed rubber exports and China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expected increase in supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the semi - steel tire inventory has reached a record high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with a late - session rebound testing the 14100 resistance. Pay attention to the outcome of the resistance level in the short - term [11] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of capacity put into production for the raw material butadiene this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have reached record highs, and there is a cost - collapse logic in the future [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily at 11670 [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [13] PX - Logic: After profit recovery, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand side is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [15] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 6870 [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [15] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of polyester production cuts in July, but PTA production starts have declined due to tight PX inventory. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 4840 [17] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and PP production starts have declined. However, recently, the newly put - into - operation capacity has gradually increased, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The short - term resistance level is at 7140 [20] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the previously shut - down plants in Iran are expected to resume production quickly, and the import expectation is still strong. With high supply and weak demand during the off - season, the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, there is a rebound with reduced positions, but the volume is insufficient, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 2510 [22] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearishly viewed [23] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The resistance is temporarily at 4955 [23] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [23] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume production, and the polyester production starts on the demand side have declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The short - term resistance is at 4345 [27] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27] Plastic - Logic: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The resistance is temporarily at 7450 [30] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-01 中国液体化工低库存，美国石油 低库存，能化延续震荡 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，美国又在积极促成俄乌之间的谈 判。从原油基本面情况看，当前全球整体库存逐步攀升，欧美经济体尤其 是美国石油库存却压力较小。美国原油商业库存、库欣库存和柴油库存均 位于五年同期最低，作为全球最大的原油消费国，美国的低库存将对油价 形成支撑，国内化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 化工品中整体仍是震荡态势。我们关注到液体化工的库存近期有分 化。纯苯和苯乙烯的华东港口库存周度攀升，且已经升至五年同期最高； 另一方面乙二醇的港口库存持续下滑，将至五年同期最低。高库存说明供 给压力在与日俱增，极低的乙二醇库存则说明一旦有装置扰动，期价就可 能有较强的向上动力。聚酯链中的PX和TA也延续强基差格局，低库存和高 基差品种表现将强于其他品种。 原油：延续震荡整理，美国月报显示该国产量创纪录 LPG：基本面宽松，但市场仍对地缘风险担忧，PG盘面或震荡 沥青：欧佩克+增产或超预期，沥青高估值等待回落 高硫燃油：欧佩克+增产或超预期，高硫燃油重回弱势 低硫燃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 1, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 185.4 to - 180.4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 24 to June 30, 2025, increased from - 33.99 to - 19.94 yuan/ton; the fuel oil basis data has some blanks; the crude oil/asphalt ratio decreased from 0.1520 to 0.1395 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the natural rubber basis changed from 185 to - 35 yuan/ton. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads are also provided for multiple chemicals [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 30, 2025, are provided [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads for multiple agricultural products are also presented [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for different contracts of these indices are also provided [48].