Group 1 - Japan will immediately increase imports of U.S. rice by 75% under the zero-tariff minimum market access framework, with a total import volume reaching approximately 600,000 tons [1][3] - Japan has agreed to purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [4] - The agreement emphasizes the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance as a cornerstone for peace in the Indo-Pacific region and a driver for global growth and technological innovation [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government has highlighted a $550 billion investment commitment from Japan, focusing on strategic sectors such as energy infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding [2] - Japan will simplify certification procedures for U.S. cars deemed safe, allowing for easier market entry for American automotive products [3] - Japan has committed to purchasing U.S. military equipment and has plans to buy dozens of U.S. defense systems annually, alongside a commitment to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3600-point mark during the session [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73 points, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 1.17% to 1032.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.21% to 11193.06 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.5% to 2345.37 points [3] Trading Activity - A total of 4391 stocks rose while 911 stocks fell, with 113 stocks remaining flat across the two exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange [4] - The total trading volume for the two exchanges was 184.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The steel sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Baogang Co. and Hainan Mining hitting the daily limit, while other steel stocks rose over 3% [5] - The retail sector also performed well, with companies like China Duty Free and Bubugao reaching the daily limit, and several others increasing by over 3% [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector was notable, with stocks such as Longmag Technology and Tibet Mining hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [5] - Conversely, banking stocks underperformed, with several banks declining over 2% [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Financial analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing structural rotation opportunities, with a focus on old infrastructure and technology sectors [8] - The market is showing resilience to negative news and responding positively to favorable news, indicating a potential for a sustained upward trend [8] - There is a bullish sentiment in the market, although some analysts caution about the possibility of short-term adjustments following recent gains [8]

Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River is transforming into a significant development driver for Tibet, with hydropower projects enhancing its value beyond just water resource utilization [1] - The construction of cascade power stations will generate 60 million kilowatts of installed capacity, equivalent to three Three Gorges dams, providing hundreds of billions of kilowatt-hours of electricity annually [1] - This clean energy supply will not only meet local demand but also support industrial upgrades in eastern and central China, contributing to the country's carbon reduction goals [1] Strategic Implications - The potential for cross-regional electricity resource allocation is significant, as neighboring countries like India, Iran, and Pakistan face power shortages [3] - Exporting surplus electricity could alleviate energy crises in these regions while generating substantial foreign exchange revenue for China, creating a sustainable "energy output-capital return" cycle [3] - The development of tourism along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, supported by ecological protection and landscape restoration, could create a world-class tourist destination, boosting local industries [3] Agricultural Development - The concept of diverting river water to arid regions like Xinjiang could enhance agricultural productivity, transforming barren land into arable fields [5] - This model of resource allocation has successful precedents, such as Israel's drip irrigation and China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project [5] - The coordinated development of hydropower, tourism, and ecological agriculture aims to reshape Tibet's economic geography, creating a diversified industrial system [5] Environmental Sustainability - The development of the Yarlung Tsangpo River exemplifies a harmonious coexistence of human activity and nature, challenging the notion that development equates to destruction [7] - Techniques like low dam development and ecological flow guarantees aim to maximize resource benefits while preserving ecological integrity [7] - The river's development signifies a broader narrative of sustainable utilization, benefiting both current and future generations [7]

Group 1 - A-share agricultural stocks experienced significant movement in the afternoon, with Honghui Fruits and Vegetables hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Qiule Seed Industry, Jinjian Rice Industry, Feng'an Co., Top Cloud Agriculture, and Qianyin High-Tech also saw increases [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the development trends of multiple industries, including the attention to the development of the humanoid robot field, the determination of the Hainan Free Trade Port's customs - closure time, and the price and operation status of various industries in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry; Morgan Stanley predicted that humanoid robots will be widely adopted in China in the second half of this year and China will have an advantage in this field in the future [1]. - **Service Industry**: The customs - closure time of the Hainan Free Trade Port is set for December 18, 2025, demonstrating China's determination to expand high - level opening - up [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Black commodity prices are rising collectively, and egg prices have rebounded by over 10% [2]. - **Mid - stream**: In the chemical industry, the operating rates of urea and polyester are stable, while the PX operating rate is declining [3]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have declined; in the service industry, the recent movie box office is at a low level [3]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spread data of various industries as of July 23, including industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, mining, and chemical industry, and shows their trends compared with different time points in the past [47]. D. Key Industry Price Indicator Tracking - The report shows the price indicators of various industries on July 23, including agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemical industry, and real estate, and provides their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [48].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 24 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周三，早盘 A 股震荡起伏，午后冲高回落。截至收盘，上证指数涨 0.01%，报 3582.30 点。深成指跌 0.37%，创业板指跌 0.01%，沪深 300 涨 0.02%、上证 50 涨 0.32%，中证 500 跌 0.27%、中证 100 ...

7月23日，市统计局、国家统计局重庆调查总队联合公布今年上半年我市经济运行数据，上半年全市实 现地区生产总值15929.58亿元，同比增长5%。其中，第一产业实现增加值714.82亿元，同比增长3.1%； 第二产业实现增加值5555.75亿元，同比增长4.2%；第三产业实现增加值9659.01亿元，同比增长5.6%。 上半年经济呈现回升向好态势 （数据来源：市统计局、国家统计局重庆调查总队） 农业 实现增加值714.82亿元，同比增长3.1% 工业 实现增加值5555.75亿元，同比增长4.2% 服务 业 实现增加值9659.01亿元，同比增长5.6% 消费 社会消费品零售总额8300.37亿元，同比增长4.5% 投资 固定资产投资同比增长3.2%，设备工器具投资同比增长31.8% 收入 全体居民人均可支配收入22117元，同比增长5.1%；城乡收入比由上年同期的2.41∶1下降为 2.37∶1 上半年，全市上下全面落实党中央、国务院决策部署，突出稳进增效、改革创新、除险固安、强企富民 工作导向，主动服务和融入新发展格局，加快推进"六区一高地"建设，生产供给稳定增长，社会需求不 断扩大，就业物价总体平稳，新质 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - **Asset trends**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - **Iron ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - **Soda ash**: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - **Industrial silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - **PX**: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - **Ethylene glycol**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - **PP**: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - **PL**: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - **Urea**: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - **Palm oil**: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - **Corn**: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]