Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver is likely to experience a pull - back after a rally as spot contradictions ease [2][5]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories [2][9]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state [2][12]. - Lead price rebounds are restricted by increasing inventories [2][15]. - The price trend of tin is subject to macro - economic influences [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a consolidation phase; alumina's profit margins are being compressed; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level as macro - sentiment turns bearish; stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost at the bottom limiting downward flexibility [2][24]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to continue its short - term range - bound movement with a firm spot performance [2][27]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend; polysilicon's futures are showing strength and investors should focus on the content of today's meeting [2][31][32]. - Iron ore is in a wide - range oscillation [2][36]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may experience a slight correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][39]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations with cost providing bottom support [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations with expectations fluctuating [2][47][48]. - Log prices are oscillating repeatedly [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Data**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 960.34 with a daily increase of 2.27%, and the night - session closing price was 962.08 with a night - session increase of 1.39%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 11966 with a daily increase of 3.76%, and the night - session closing price was 12138.00 with a night - session increase of 3.97% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Gold ETF holdings increased by 1 to 1,022.60, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 310 to 15,422.61. SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,916 to 75,099 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 64,360 to 39,660,680 troy ounces. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32,643 to 1,030,429 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 4,559,793 to 515,632,550 troy ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [5][8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85260 with a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The closing price of LME copper 3M was 10,576 with a daily decrease of 0.08% [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 8,236 to 44,531 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 450 to 138,350 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, China's macro - economic data showed positive trends. In the industry, the investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months, and Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's copper ore imports in September were 258.7 million tons, and imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 48.5 million tons [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22015, down 0.92%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M was 2949, down 2.09% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7172 to 65666 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 to 38350 tons [12]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary signaled a relaxation, and both sides' working levels maintained communication. China restated its stance on the tariff war [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17110, up 0.35%; the closing price of LME lead 3M was 1977, down 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE lead inventory increased by 1302 to 32007 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 8225 to 254775 tons [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, China's macro - economic data and the US economic situation from the Fed's Beige Book were reported [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 281,710, up 0.46%; the closing price of LME tin 3M was 35,380, up 0.31% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE tin inventory increased by 50 to 5,677 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 190 to 2,575 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The same set of macro - economic news about China and the US was reported [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20910, and the closing price of LME aluminum 3M was 2745. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2797, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20410 [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained at 64.20 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.90 million tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's CPI and PPI data showed positive trends, and new social financing and loan data were also released [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121,180, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560 [24]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining company's over 148 - hectare mining area was taken over; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; some Indonesian mining companies were sanctioned; new regulations on mining plans were issued; and Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China [24][25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,720, and the closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,940 [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. The government issued an action plan for the "three - year doubling" of electric vehicle charging facilities, and China's power battery production, sales, and exports showed growth [29][30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,865 [32]. - **Inventory Changes**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 54.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.0 million tons [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The results of Xinjiang's 2025 incremental new - energy project mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [32]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 776.5 with a daily decrease of 0.70% [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [37]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 with a daily decrease of 0.85%, and the closing price of HC2601 was 3,212 with a daily decrease of 0.86% [39]. - **Industry News**: In early October, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and steel export and import data in August were also reported [39][41]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5376, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5746 [44]. - **Industry News**: Market quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were released, and a large steel mill's tender inquiries for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were reported [44]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1151 with a daily decrease of 0.2%, and the closing price of J2601 was 1642 with a daily decrease of 0.8% [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial producer price index in September showed a narrowing year - on - year decline [49]. Log - The price of logs is oscillating repeatedly, but no detailed price or trading data are provided [2][50].

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the significant role of private enterprises in China's foreign trade, showcasing their resilience and growth amidst external challenges [1][2] Group 1: Import and Export Performance - In the first three quarters, private enterprises achieved an import and export volume of 19.16 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with exports and imports growing by 8.8% and 5.9% respectively [1] - Private enterprises have maintained a continuous year-on-year growth in import and export for 22 consecutive quarters, contributing 4.3 percentage points to China's overall foreign trade growth [1] - The share of private enterprises in China's total foreign trade value reached 57%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, solidifying their position as the largest foreign trade entity in the country [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - Private enterprises have expanded their market reach, with import and export growth rates surpassing the overall level in over 180 countries and regions [2] - Notable export growth was observed in emerging markets, with increases of 14% to ASEAN, 27.3% to Africa, and 11.8% to Central Asia, while traditional markets like the EU and Japan also saw growth exceeding the overall rate [2] - Private enterprises have actively engaged with overseas clients, marking new export initiatives such as fresh pomelo to New Zealand and soup dumplings to Honduras, thereby diversifying the export of unique agricultural products and traditional foods [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The innovation capabilities of private enterprises have surged, with high-tech product exports increasing by 15.3%, accounting for 54.2% of the total export value of similar products, a rise of 1.6 percentage points [2] - Approximately 80% of high-end machine tools, over 70% of lithium batteries, and nearly 60% of medical devices exported from China are produced by private enterprises [2] - The diverse range of products exported by private enterprises spans from super tankers to handheld devices, indicating their significant contribution to various sectors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive table of the basis rate statistics for various futures contracts, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial instruments. It details the basis rate, changes compared to the previous day, and basis values for different contract months, along with corresponding spot prices and their sources [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.42%, with a spot price of 82,505 and a current - month basis of 425 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is - 0.05%, spot price is 20,770, and current - month basis is 5 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is - 0.43%, spot price is 21,870, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Lead (PB): Basis rate is - 0.94%, spot price is 16,950, and current - month basis is - 120 [4]. - Tin (TI): Basis rate is 0.20%, spot price is 273,700, and current - month basis is 550 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 1.08%, spot price is 124,050, and current - month basis is 1660 [4]. - Industrial Silicon (TI): Basis rate is 5.20%, spot price is 9500, and current - month basis is 480 [4]. - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.32%, spot price is 851.99, and current - month basis is 0.25 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 10,353, and current - month basis is - 17 [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Coke: Basis rate is - 6.98%, spot price is 1637, and current - month basis is - 122.8 [4]. -动力煤 (ZC): For Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal, basis rate is 1178% (data seems abnormal), spot price is 1270, and current - month basis is 35.5; for Shanxi Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao Port, basis rate is - 0.25%, spot price is 707, and current - month basis is - 94.4 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 7.88%, spot price is 5330, and current - month basis is - 406 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Basis rate is 1.04%, spot price is 6000, and current - month basis is 62 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is 1.31%, spot price is 13,100, and current - month basis is 70 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is - 4.72%, spot price is 1210, and current - month basis is - 60 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is - 3.54%, spot price is 2273, and current - month basis is - 84 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.39%, spot price is 4305, and current - month basis is 130 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is - 1.45%, spot price is 4610, and current - month basis is - 68 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 2.20%, spot price is 7050, and current - month basis is 152 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is - 0.26%, spot price is 6940, and current - month basis is - 50 [4]. - Short - fiber: Basis rate is 1.38%, spot price is 6460, and current - month basis is 6 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is 1.55%, spot price is 7280, and current - month basis is 111 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 9.52%, spot price is 5405, and current - month basis is 470 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 4.62%, spot price is 14,850, and current - month basis is - 720 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 7.19%, spot price is 13,324, and current - month basis is 849 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 6.84%, spot price is 1225, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is - 3.82%, spot price is 1610, and current - month basis is - 64 [4]. - Paper Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 13.14%, spot price is 5725, and current - month basis is 411 [4]. - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 4.02%, spot price is 470.9, and current - month basis is - 20.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 8.59%, spot price is 3135, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 1.74%, spot price is 3500, and current - month basis is 115 [4]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is - 0.7%, spot price is 3424, and current - month basis is - 7 [4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (PG): Basis rate is 5.41%, spot price is 4498, and current - month basis is 219 [4]. Agricultural Products - Threaded Steel (RB): Basis rate is 4.20%, spot price is 3300, and current - month basis is 226 [4]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.85%, spot price is 3420, and current - month basis is 0 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.02%, spot price is 837.9, and current - month basis is 32.4 [4]. - Soybeans: Basis rate is 1.30%, spot price is 3980, and current - month basis is 66 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 2.25%, spot price is 2900, and current - month basis is - 67 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is 4.75%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 116 [4]. - Edible Oil: Basis rate is 3.03%, spot price is 8440, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): Basis rate is - 1.0%, spot price is 10,040, and current - month basis is - 102 [4]. - Peanuts (PK): Basis rate is 10.57%, spot price is 8600, and current - month basis is 830 [4]. - Palm Oil: Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 9170, and current - month basis is - 52 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 6.24%, spot price is 2300, and current - month basis is 167 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 3.48%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 19 [4]. - Apples (AP): Basis rate is - 7.65%, spot price is 7800, and current - month basis is - 847 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is 17.04%, spot price is 3600, and current - month basis is 228 [4]. - Live Pigs: Basis rate is - 1.05%, spot price is 12,550, and current - month basis is - 760 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 11.48%, spot price is 15,083, and current - month basis is 1553 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 7.38%, spot price is 5890, and current - month basis is 405 [4]. Financial Instruments - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.69%, spot price is 4593.5, and current - month basis is 8.5 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is - 0.03%, spot price is 2952.7, and current - month basis is - 1.1 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 2.44%, spot price is 7341.3, and current - month basis is 48.1 [4].

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025, highlighting the ongoing investment cooperation between China and SCO member countries [1] - As of July 2025, China's investment stock in other SCO member countries exceeds $84 billion, with cooperation expanding from traditional sectors like oil and gas to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [1] - China has signed investment protection agreements with all member countries, including upgraded agreements with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, enhancing mutual investment protection and improving investment access [1] Group 2 - Trade between China and other SCO member countries reached a record high of approximately $512.4 billion in 2024, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, doubling the trade volume since the 2018 Qingdao Summit [2] - In the previous year, China imported nearly $90 billion worth of oil, natural gas, and coal from SCO member countries, with energy products accounting for about one-fifth of China's total imports [2] - The establishment of a connectivity network among SCO countries is rapidly progressing, with significant infrastructure projects like the China-Russia Tongjiang Railway Bridge and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway [2] Group 3 - Following the Tianjin Summit, the Ministry of Commerce will send a delegation to Russia for the 24th SCO Economic Ministers' Meeting on September 6, focusing on implementing the economic outcomes from the Tianjin Summit [2] - Future regional economic cooperation within the SCO will focus on integrated trade and investment development, deepening international supply chain cooperation, and enhancing connectivity [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] - The steel market is in a tight - balance state between "policy expectation support" and "off - season demand suppression", and high - level volatility of steel is expected. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production - restriction policies [1] - In the short term, due to the impact of China - Canada trade policies, the vegetable oil sector may continue to show a strong - oscillating trend, and palm oil may also continue its strong performance, with market sentiment remaining bullish [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Black Series - Most black - series commodities rose. After the implementation of production - restriction news in Tangshan over the weekend and the upward trend of coking coal and coke futures prices, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded by about 1%. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two - month high [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and a strong bullish atmosphere in industrial products, the copper market showed a strong performance. For lithium carbonate, it opened sharply higher, then oscillated and declined, with a supply contraction due to the shutdown of a mine in Jiangxi, but the increase in spodumene - based lithium production would supplement part of the supply reduction. With increased downstream production scheduling in August, the fundamentals improved marginally [1] Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices stabilized and rebounded overnight, driving up the sentiment in the domestic crude - oil market. In the short term, due to OPEC +'s planned production increase in September and concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may support short - term price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC +'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices are still under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce led to a sharp rise in the far - month vegetable oil contracts, while the main 09 contract of rapeseed meal fell under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. Palm oil continued to be strong due to lower - than - expected production growth and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil price is expected to be volatile and strong after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1]. - For precious metals, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the volatile trend [2]. - For copper, hold short positions [3]. - Aluminum is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For casting aluminum alloy, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the futures spread widens [5]. - For alumina, short on rebounds based on the recent high of 3500 yuan [6]. - For zinc, continue the idea of short on rebounds [7]. - For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions with the support of 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - For nickel, look for opportunities to short [9]. - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [10]. - For lithium carbonate, try light - position long positions in the short term [11]. - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock in the range of 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to position control [12]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, pay attention to the off - season demand承接 ability [14]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [15]. - For coke, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [16]. - For coking coal, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [17]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [18]. - For ferrosilicon, it follows the trend of ferrosilicon manganese, and the power cost may decline again [19]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold existing short positions [20]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spreads are weak [21]. - For asphalt, the unilateral trend follows the oil price with limited fluctuation space [22]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, it runs at a low level overall [23]. - For urea, the short - term market is weak and volatile [24]. - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25]. - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - For styrene, the price continues to run weakly [27]. - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29]. - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip is restricted [32]. - For glass, it runs weakly [33]. - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - For soda ash, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is initially treated as a shock [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - For domestic soybeans, the market is initially treated as a shock [39]. - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - For live pigs, it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [41]. - For eggs, the futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - For sugar, the sugar price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - For apples, pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - For timber, maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - For pulp, the price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - For stock index futures, maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - For treasury bond futures, it may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Summaries by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent's October contract still rose 2.84%, and SC09 rose 2.92%. OPEC + decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU crack spreads continued to decline, and the market fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. The demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory removal was weak [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP dropped significantly, the supply was loose, and the price was at a low level [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and precious metals rebounded [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper closed down. Pay attention to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory increased, and it was under pressure in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and it was recommended to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price dropped, and it was advisable to hold long positions with support [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and it was recommended to short [9]. - **Tin**: The London tin rose. Hold short positions at high levels [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply and demand were relatively balanced, and pay attention to the support at 5800 [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: It followed the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost might decline [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season, and the short - term market was weak and volatile [24]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the supply was sufficient. Pay attention to macro policies [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price was weak, and it was recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be weak [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The prices were prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC was expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda was under pressure at high levels [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The mid - term processing margin had a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip was restricted [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It ran weakly, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans were under pressure, and the market was initially treated as a shock [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price was in a shock, and pay attention to the weather [39]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The futures price may have peaked, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - **Apples**: Pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - **Timber**: The demand improved, the inventory was low, and maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - **Pulp**: The price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was volatile. Maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route decreased slightly. The主力 EC2510 contract was deeply discounted, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, a 25% tariff on goods from India, and a 40% tariff on Brazilian products, leading to a total tariff of 50% on Brazil [1][2] - The U.S. will also impose a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [3][4] - The trade agreement with South Korea includes a commitment of $350 billion for U.S.-controlled investment projects and $100 billion in liquefied natural gas or other energy products [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-India trade deficit is significant, with a reported $458 billion surplus for India, and the total goods trade volume projected at $128.8 billion for 2024 [2] - The tariffs on Brazil exclude certain products such as wood pulp, oil products, and some fertilizers [2] - Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices in New York fell nearly 20% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable. The improvement of US consumer demand depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The overall impact of upcoming US tariff policies may be lower than in April, but uncertainties remain [7]. - Domestic macro: As an important meeting approaches, the expectation of "anti - involution" policies has strengthened. Although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may focus on using existing policies, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [7]. - Asset views: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: Short - term weak recovery in commodity demand. US consumer purchase intentions are fluctuating at a low level, and price suppression persists. Improvement depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Follow the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. Tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties [7]. - Domestic: "Anti - involution" policy expectations have strengthened. Some industries have administrative production - cut expectations. Domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may use existing policies, with more incremental policies likely in the fourth quarter [7]. - Assets: Focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting policies. Policy - driven logic will be stronger in the second half of the year. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. The weak - dollar pattern will continue in the long - term. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is advisable [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Opportunities are spreading across sectors, but there is a lack of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock index options: Continue to hold bull spreads. Option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains under pressure. Key concerns are unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors are Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: The fundamentals are marginally improving, and cost support is strong. Key factors are the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Hot - metal production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. Key factors are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: The futures price has risen significantly, and the price - increase progress has accelerated. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" expectation has risen, and the futures price has continuously hit the daily limit. Key factors are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Inventory pressure is acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Manganese silicon: Supply - demand contradictions are acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Middle and downstream sectors are replenishing stocks simultaneously, and upstream inventory has significantly decreased. Key factor is spot sales. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply - demand changes are limited, and sentiment supports the price. Key factor is soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. Key factors are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: The futures sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is adjusting at a high level. Key factors are unexpected ore复产 and unexpected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: The sentiment boost has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Macro sentiment still exists, and the zinc price is fluctuating at a high level. Key factors are macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lead: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and the lead price is fluctuating. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely in the short - term. Key factors are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policy risks. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is fluctuating. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is slightly upward - trending. Key factors are the expectation of Wa State's复产 and demand improvement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lithium carbonate: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: It is under pressure at a high level. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and chemical demand is acceptable. Key factor is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is under pressure. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is weak during the power - generation peak season. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The futures price follows the crude - oil trend and is weakening. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Methanol: It is boosted by coal in the short - term. Key factors are macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, and export pull is less than expected. Key factors are export policies and capacity elimination. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. Key factors are coal - price trends and the inflection point of visible inventory accumulation. The short - term outlook is a volatile decline [10]. - PX: Sentiment disturbances are increasing, and fundamental drivers are weakening. Key factors are overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance schedules. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PTA: Major plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. Key factors are the implementation of unexpected major plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Short - fiber: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and the processing fee is compressed. Key factors are textile exports and downstream purchasing rhythms. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Bottle - chip: During the production - cut season, cost pricing is more important than supply - demand. Key factor is the later - stage bottle - chip production start - up. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Propylene: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PP: It is boosted by "anti - involution" but supply - demand is still under pressure. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Plastic: It is boosted by the macro - environment but the fundamental support is weak. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PVC: The sentiment has cooled. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Caustic soda: Cost support is strong, and the downward space is limited. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has weakened. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Protein meal: Market sentiment has subsided, and prices are falling. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Corn/starch: The spot price is stable, waiting for new guidance. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Live pigs: Sentiment - based trading has cooled, and the futures price has declined from a high level. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Rubber: There are炒作 themes, and the rubber price has risen rapidly in the afternoon. Key factors are production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Pulp: It is mainly driven by the macro - environment. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US - dollar - quoted price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Cotton: The main - contract position has decreased, and the upward momentum has weakened. Key factors are demand and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Sugar: Import volume is expected to increase, limiting the price rebound. Key factor is abnormal weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. While foreign capital continued to flow in, the yen depreciated significantly. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates is not uncommon in Japan, mainly due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. What's relatively abnormal is the weakness of the yen under a weak - dollar environment. Usually, the yen is stronger when the dollar is weak, but recently its trend has clearly diverged from that of the euro [2][16][56]. - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation have led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations, which is one of the reasons for the recent weakness of the yen. Currently, the rebound of Japan's core CPI is mainly driven by imported factors, with weak inflation stickiness and often falling short of expectations. Against this background, the market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.7 times on May 30th to 0.6 times on July 22nd, and the yen weakened accordingly. In addition, the previous unsuccessful US - Japan trade negotiations and the recent Senate election turmoil have further exacerbated the weakness of the yen [2][3][58]. - After the trade agreement was reached, market expectations of an interest - rate hike have heated up again. However, the lack of inflation stickiness may still be a constraint on the Bank of Japan's significant interest - rate hikes. On July 22nd, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement. After the agreement was reached, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October quickly rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The conclusion of the trade agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but attention should also be paid to the constraint of insufficient inflation stickiness on interest - rate hikes [4][45][58]. - Looking ahead, the exchange - rate trend may need to focus on the changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The suspense about Japan's new prime minister may continue until the September presidential election, and political risks may still persist during this period. Whether it is the in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or the possible victory of Takaichi Sanae, it may trigger market concerns about Japan's fiscal expansion, thereby causing a "bond - exchange double - kill" situation [4][50][58]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Exchange Rate Bi - weekly Report: The "Weak" Yen in the Political Vortex? 3.1.1 Anomaly in the Japanese Market Recently? The Divergence between the Trends of Japanese Stocks and the Yen, and the Persistent Weakness of the Yen under a Weak - Dollar Environment - The Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. From June, it soared 9.2%, and foreign capital accelerated its purchase of Japanese stocks, with a total inflow of $5.11 billion. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% during the same period. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates in Japan is due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. Japan's export - oriented economic structure makes the depreciation beneficial for exports and increases the exchange - gain of overseas revenues. Since 2013, in the yen depreciation cycle, sectors with a higher proportion of overseas revenues in Japanese stocks have seen greater increases [2][16][24]. - Under the background of the US dollar index falling 1.8% since June 2025, most currencies appreciated against the US dollar, such as the Mexican peso, Danish krone, Swiss franc, euro, and Australian dollar, which appreciated 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% against the US dollar, which is different from the historical situation where the yen was mostly stronger when the US dollar weakened [27]. 3.1.2 What Caused the Weakness of the Yen? The Cooling of Interest - Rate Hike Expectations due to Lower - than - Expected Inflation, and the Impact of Trade Negotiations and Political Turmoil - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations. Japan's core CPI rebound is mainly driven by imported factors, and the inflation surprise index has been declining since May 30th. The market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.66 times on May 30th to 0.59 times on July 22nd, causing the yen to weaken [32]. - The previous 8 rounds of US - Japan trade negotiations, with the first 7 being unsuccessful, made the market worry about the impact of high tariffs on the Japanese economy and exacerbated the weakening of the yen. On July 22nd, an agreement was reached: the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US [36][38]. - The "political vortex" of the Senate election on July 20th made the market worry about the further "loosening" of Japan's fiscal policy. The ruling coalition lost control of the Senate, and to stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, which led to the weakness of the yen and the increase in the term premium of Japanese bonds [39]. 3.1.3 New Focus after the Agreement? Inflation Remains a Constraint on the Bank of Japan's Interest - Rate Hikes, and Attention Should be Paid to the Possible "Bond - Exchange Double - Kill" Caused by Fiscal Expansion - After the US - Japan trade agreement was reached on July 22nd, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but the lack of inflation stickiness may still restrict significant interest - rate hikes [45]. - Looking forward, the exchange - rate trend should focus on the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The new prime - ministerial suspense may last until September, and political risks may continue. The in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or Takaichi Sanae's possible victory may trigger concerns about fiscal expansion and a "bond - exchange double - kill" [50]. - Externally, it should focus on the persistence of the US stagflation trade. Once the market restarts the slowdown trade, the yen is expected to strengthen again. Multiple signs indicate that US inflation may enter an upward phase, which may lead to a temporary rebound of the US dollar and a temporary decline of the yen. Subsequently, the weakening of US unemployment data may be the key for the slowdown trade and the strengthening of the yen [53]. 3.2 Large - scale Assets & Overseas Events & Data: The US - Japan Tariff Agreement was Reached, and Most Developed Markets Rose 3.2.1 Large - scale Assets: Developed Markets Continued to Rise, and Coking Coal Rose Significantly - Most developed - market stock indices rose, such as the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500, which rose 4.1%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively. Most emerging - market stock indices also rose. Most sectors of the US S&P 500 rose, and most sectors in the eurozone rose as well. The Hang Seng Index rose across the board, and most industries increased [59][64][66]. - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in developed countries showed a divergent trend. The yields of Japanese, German, and Italian 10 - year government bonds rose, while those of the UK, US, and French 10 - year government bonds fell. Most 10 - year government bond yields in emerging markets rose [68][72]. - The US dollar index fell 0.8% to 97.67, and most other currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The yuan appreciated against the US dollar. Commodity prices showed mixed trends. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. Non - precious metals rose, and precious metals fell [74][82][84]. 3.2.2 The US Reached Three Trade Agreements - Since July 22nd, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, lower than the previously threatened 25%. Japan promises to invest $550 billion in the US. The US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesia, lower than the previously threatened 25%. The US will lower the tariff on the Philippines from 20% to 19% [90]. 3.2.3 The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan Lost the Election, and the Possibility of Fiscal Expansion Increased - In the 27th Senate election on July 20, 2025, the ruling coalition lost control of the Senate. To stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, so the scale of Japan's fiscal stimulus may expand in the second half of the year. After the election results were announced, the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to around 1.60% [95]. 3.2.4 Federal Reserve: Pay Attention to the July FOMC Meeting Next Week - The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Attention should be paid to the July FOMC meeting next week. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, but also focuses on whether the Fed will send more signals about the September interest - rate cut [99]. 3.2.5 Trump Visited the Federal Reserve and Stated that He Would Not Remove Powell - On July 24, 2025, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve headquarters. He expressed his hope for an interest - rate cut but said he would not remove Powell because of the renovation project [103]. 3.2.6 PMI: The US Markit Manufacturing PMI Declined - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the market expectation of 52.7, indicating that tariffs still disturbed US industrial production. The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, in line with market expectations [105]. 3.2.7 ECB: The July Meeting Kept Interest Rates Unchanged, in Line with Market Expectations - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July, as the eurozone's inflation reached the target, domestic price pressure eased, and the economic performance met expectations. The ECB has no exchange - rate target but will consider the indirect impact of exchange - rate fluctuations on inflation and the economy [109]. 3.2.8 Unemployment Benefits: The Number of Continuing Unemployment Benefit Claims Basically Met Market Expectations - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the US was 217,000, lower than the market expectation of 226,000. As of the week ending July 12, the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims was 1.955 million, slightly lower than the market expectation [112]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomic Calendar: Pay Attention to the Federal Reserve Meeting - The report provides a global macroeconomic data calendar, including important events such as the ECB's interest - rate meeting, China's industrial enterprise profits, the US GDP, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [116].