经济数据方面：（1） 美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值为4.3%，高于 前值3.8%与市场预期3.3%；美国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值为 3.5%，高于前值2.5%与市场预期2.7%；美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季 率初值为2.9%，符合市场预期，高于前值2.6%。（2）劳动力市场方面，初请 失业金人数有所下降。美国至12月20日当周初请失业金人数为21.4万人，前 值22.4 万人。 华福证券 本周全球主要大类资产涨跌互现。NYMEX铂（+24.70%）涨幅最大， COMEX银（+18.04%），COMEX黄金（+4.41%），棉花（+3.70%）涨幅 居前；美元指数（-0.69%）跌幅最大，法国CAC40（-0.59%），美元兑人民 币（-0.46%），英国富时100（-0.27%）跌幅居前。 华福证券 海外市场周观察（1222-1228） 美股圣诞行情引领市场创新高 投资要点： 本周美股整体延续震荡上行走势，"圣诞行情"如期而至，周二标普500 指数创下新高后，周三续创新高。经济数据方面，美国第三季度GDP年化增速 达4.3%，超出预期，美股三大指数延续震荡上行态势。年末资金面宽松与节 日 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 说是说东南亚，其实我想讨论的只有三个国家，越南，马来西亚和印尼。 有几个原因，第一他们是经济体量最大的，第二他们代表了三种东南亚的经济发展模式，资源，FDI， 资源+FDI。第三他们也代表了东南亚三种宗教文化模式，儒家文化，伊斯兰教，儒家文化+伊斯兰教。 而最重要的原因，我很喜欢这三个国家。在旅游上，我觉得印尼优于马来西亚优于越南，在饮食上，我 觉得马来西亚优于越南优于印尼但都远高于全球平均水准。在出行便利性上，马来西亚优于越南优于印 尼。 既然说到吃，那么我多说几句，越南的饮食分成北方和南方，北方辛辣南方温润，总体来说我觉得南方 的海鲜更好，北方的米粉更对我的胃口。马来西亚分成东马和西马，西马的福建菜非常不错，而东马的 海鲜更好。印尼菜非常有特色，我很喜欢他们的炸鱼和牛肉。 越南：高FDI下的政治改革 之前讨论过越南的政治问题，在明年一月份，也就是下个月，越南会进行自己的十四大，选举出新的领 导班子。苏林主席作为强力部门出身的优秀领导人，他拥有很大的选择权，去思考该如何分享和支配自 己的权力。在之前的文章中我们介绍过他的可能选择越南政治 - 极其有趣， ...

Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]

新华财经香港12月22日电（记者 林迎楠）由香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波担任主席的大宗商品策略 委员会22日召开第一次会议。陈茂波指出，香港特区政府会通过高层统筹规划，制订和践行全面的大宗 商品发展策略，抓紧未来的发展机遇。 委员会在22日的会议上听取了有关全球大宗商品市场趋势和香港发展潜力的汇报，并就委员会优先聚焦 调研探讨的商品范畴和重点进行讨论。 陈茂波表示，在地缘政治、科技变革、绿色转型等多个大趋势的多重驱动下，全球就贵金属、有色金 属、传统能源、新能源相关材料等大宗商品的供需形势正经历深刻变化。他指出，我国是大宗商品的主 要消费国和进出口市场之一，并正全速推动高质量发展、坚定迈向双碳目标，加大对绿色产业的投入； 这些发展都凸显国家在建设大宗商品资源配置枢纽上的优势。 编辑：郭洲洋 陈茂波强调，香港作为国际金融、贸易和航运中心，"一国两制"下有"内联外通"的独特优势，其中资 金、货物、资讯自由流动，加上高效的金融、物流和专业服务，以及便捷通达的交通运输网络，在发展 大宗商品市场方面具有庞大的潜力。 陈茂波指出，过去一两年间，香港正积极建构更蓬勃的大宗商品生态，从加入伦敦金属交易所的全球仓 库网络，以促 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

Group 1: Legal Framework Development in Shandong - The Shandong Provincial Committee held a meeting to promote comprehensive rule of law in the province, focusing on legislative, administrative, and judicial improvements [1][2] - Emphasis was placed on scientific legislation, optimizing the business environment, and enhancing public legal services [1][2] - The meeting aims to strengthen the rule of law as a foundation for high-quality economic and social development in Shandong [2] Group 2: Government Investment Fund Development - Shandong issued implementation opinions to promote the high-quality development of government investment funds, aligning with national guidelines [3] - The opinions stress a structured approach to fund management, emphasizing risk-sharing and regulatory compliance [3] - The initiative aims to enhance the effectiveness of government investment funds in supporting economic and social development [3] Group 3: Shandong's Top Enterprises - The 2025 list of Shandong's top 200 enterprises shows a total revenue of 10.34 trillion, with Shandong Energy Group leading at 866.48 billion [4][5] - The top ten companies include major players like Weiqiao Pioneering Group and Haier Group, reflecting a strong industrial base [4][5] - Industrial enterprises contribute 76.8% of the revenue among the top 200, highlighting the industrial characteristics of Shandong's economy [4] Group 4: Innovation in Power Generation - The world's first commercial supercritical carbon dioxide power generation unit was successfully commissioned in Guizhou, marking a significant technological milestone [6][7] - This technology improves efficiency by over 50% and reduces water consumption by 50%, showcasing advancements in energy generation [6][7] - The project represents a key step for Jinan Steel Group in transitioning from traditional manufacturing to green technology [7]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile for the year, indicating a new normal of "overnight alignment, intraday reversal" [1][5][38] - Both the U.S. and China are in a phase characterized by limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk, akin to a "Goldilocks" scenario, with the U.S. core CPI dropping to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years [1][8][9] - In China, corporate profitability has bottomed out, and the weakening of domestic demand creates a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [1][8] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two key characteristics: broader macro effects benefiting "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) outperforming core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][17] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][17][18] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The "income increase" plan aims to enhance net transfer payments to residents by 2025, with a focus on improving initial distribution through wage reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprises [3][25] - The expansion of consumption tax and adjustments in corporate income tax rates are expected to be seen in 2026, which may further stimulate domestic consumption [3][25][28] Group 4: Investment Strategy for 2026 - The current market conditions suggest a shift from a single industry narrative to a dual focus on "physical demand stimulation" and "domestic policy benefits," with recommendations to invest in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil) and sectors benefiting from consumer recovery (airlines, hotels, food and beverages) [4][38] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns [4][38] - Opportunities are identified in China's equipment export chain and sectors showing signs of recovery in domestic manufacturing [4][38]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising to over 90% since November, indicating a new norm of "overnight same direction, intraday reverse" [2][11][45] - Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are in a phase of "limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk," with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment [2][13][47] - The Chinese economy shows signs of a bottom in corporate profits, while domestic demand is weakening, creating a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [2][13][47] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two notable characteristics: first, "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) are performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][18][52] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, as evidenced by the negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][18][52] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [2][19][53] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The articles published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasize the importance of consumer demand as a primary focus for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for a complete domestic demand system [3][24][58] - The strategy includes enhancing secondary distribution to increase residents' net transfer income and optimizing primary distribution to improve labor income, with potential reforms in state-owned enterprises to guide wage adjustments [3][25][58] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. show that periods of rising resident income lead to increased service and new-type consumption, indicating that the current "income increase plan" may boost demand for service consumption and technology-driven durable goods [3][27][58] Group 4: Preparing for 2026 - The current market conditions, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggest a shift in investment strategy towards "physical demand-driven" and "domestic demand policy dividends" as more certain avenues for growth [2][39][40] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage that will benefit from increased consumer spending [2][32][39] - The non-bank financial sector (insurance, brokerage) is expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and domestic manufacturing sectors [2][32][39]

转自：看台海 前11个月我国电子商务持续激发消费活力 记者19日从商务部了解到，今年前11个月，我国电子商务持续激发消费活力，数字消费、线上服务成为增长牵引力。商务部重 点监测平台数字产品增长8.2%，其中智能穿戴、智能机器人分别保持两位数增长，线上服务消费增长21.7%。 2025年中国大宗商品价格指数呈企稳回升态势 2025年中国大宗商品价格指数均值预计为112.1点，总体呈现前低后高、企稳回升态势，市场平稳运行，新旧动能转换特征明 显。 11月我国实际使用外资同比增长26.1% 商务部19日发布数据显示，2025年11月份，我国实际使用外资同比增长26.1%。前11个月，全国新设立外商投资企业61207家， 同比增长16.9%；11月当月新设立外商投资企业7425家，同比增长35.3%。 由文化和旅游部主办的2025中国国际旅游交易会19日在海南省海口市开幕，吸引了来自101个国家和地区的1000余名旅行商及 代表参会，同时开展多场线下买卖家专业洽谈。本届旅交会以"你好！中国"为主题，会期3天。旅交会展览面积达6.5万平方 米，共设置境内展区、境外展区、阳光海南展区、入境旅游消费展区和文旅融合展区5个展 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险， 也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻 辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 长期上，我们试图构建了一个宏大的历史对比框架，将当下的财政、技术与地缘政治特征与1970年代 的"滞胀"商品牛市进行类比。全球债券的整体熊市仍在继续，尤其是长期债券价格再创新低，奥地利 100年期债券价格创下新低(自2020年3月峰值以来下跌76%)，这暗示对于长期的生产率提升仍充满分 歧。那么美国政府怎么解决高利率难题呢？市场把希望寄托在两个地方： 1-科技进步大幅提高效率，这样经济能在不引发通胀的情况下增长，利率自然可以降低。 本报告将未来商品驱动主引擎明确置于海外，特别是美国的"大财政"周期与AI资本开支。报告指出，美 国通过一系列产业法案实施的财政刺激力度是二战以来罕见的，这种"高财政驱动、高利率、相对高增 长"的 ...