交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | 环比减少4 ， | 76% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， ， | | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 | 组 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. The downstream replenishment willingness for polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high-cost period of the dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, and the silicon enterprise start-up rate significantly declined. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long-term order demand are in production, while the furnace start-up in the north is relatively stable. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is range operation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent new warehouse receipt registration and the actual start-up of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material decreased by 0.10% to 52.25 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton, and the basis was -3,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,415 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and some polysilicon factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of demand, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have strong resistance to high-priced resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro sentiment, and those with previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Other Information - On November 21, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in the city in 2026. The electricity volume scale newly included in the mechanism in 2026 is 1.2 billion kWh, and the upper limit of the bidding price for wind power and photovoltaic power is 0.3598 yuan/kWh [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an Australian photovoltaic application report, showing that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Australia in 2024 was 5.2GW, and the total national installed capacity reached 40GW, including 26.1GW in distributed systems and 13.4GW in centralized systems. The newly installed capacity in 2024 has exceeded the historical cumulative installed capacity of 5.1GW in Australia as of the end of 2015 [1].

摘要 有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅 基本面偏弱，上方承压 2025年11月25日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 | | 工业硅 | | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：硅煤价格略有上涨，硅石、电极价格持稳；随着 |  | 供给端：上周周产27,100吨，环比提升。11月排产来看，川 | | | 西南产区步入平枯水期，电力成本显著抬升。 | | 滇地区厂家有检修减产安排，内蒙古地区则有部分增量， | |  | 供给端：四川地区月末进入枯水期，开工持续下调，云南地区 | | 增减相抵后，预计11月产量降至12万吨左右。 | | | 开工已处于绝对低位，已停产企业暂无资金压力，低于心理价 |  | 需求端：上半年终端装机抢装透支部分下半年需求，国内 | | | 位暂无出货意愿；西北地区开工大稳小动，产量稳中有增；其 | | 招投标项目减少，加之海外需求退坡，组件端压力较大， | | | 他地区开工暂无明显变动。供给端整体呈现缩量趋势，预计11 | | 后续若国内需 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand surplus of industrial silicon has narrowed due to the dry season in Southwest China, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range. For polysilicon, the single - direction operation is difficult due to the fundamental surplus and the undetermined "anti - involution" situation [5]. - The "anti - involution" measures for polysilicon have certain impacts on price and production capacity, but the implementation of policies such as storage and capacity reduction has uncertainties [28]. - The demand for photovoltaic main materials continues to decline, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased this week [37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 21, the spot prices of some industrial silicon grades in East China increased slightly, while the industrial silicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 8960 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 1.3% week - on - week to 53360 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Industrial Silicon**: Southwest China has entered the dry season for production cuts. Although Xinjiang's production is still being released, the total industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop to about 400,000 tons. There are also some potential production projects in the future, but the "anti - involution" policy may affect their implementation [5][9]. - **Polysilicon**: The "anti - involution" measures have led to the restoration of enterprise profits and the resumption of production, increasing the difficulty of capacity clearance and inventory reduction. The impact of policies such as price limits, energy consumption limits, and storage on the supply side has uncertainties [28]. 3.3 Cost Side - The prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials are relatively stable, but the electricity price in Southwest China will rise during the dry season, leading to an increase in production costs and production losses in the region [24][26]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Main Materials**: From November to December, the production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in China is expected to decline. The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers has increased, and the demand for overseas markets has declined [37]. - **Organic Silicon**: The joint production reduction plan of organic silicon monomer plants will be implemented on December 1, which is expected to reduce the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production rate of aluminum alloy in November is at a high level, and the output in October was 1.682 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 19.5% [52]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipts) was 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of factory and social (including warehouse receipts) was 725,800 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous period [55]. 3.6 Spread and Arbitrage - For industrial silicon, new orders, options, and basis trading are on the sidelines. Upstream enterprises can conduct low - proportion selling hedging, and downstream enterprises such as polysilicon can conduct appropriate buying hedging according to orders [5]. - For polysilicon, hold light - position long orders and set stop - losses. Hold short - put options and manage risks. Upstream enterprises can conduct appropriate selling hedging at high positions, and downstream enterprises can conduct appropriate buying hedging to lock in costs [5]. 3.7 Policy and Industry Events - There are a series of policies and events in the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad, including the "anti - involution" governance in the domestic photovoltaic industry, the adjustment of energy consumption standards for polysilicon, and the trade policies of the United States and the European Union towards the photovoltaic industry [28][63][64].

Copper - Copper prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts in December due to concerns over a deteriorating job market [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 5,905 tons to 371,391 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 5,974 tons to 43,816 tons [1] - Overall demand for copper is slowly recovering, with downstream acceptance improving, but high global visible inventory levels are constraining future price movements [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.75% to $14,730 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.69% to 116,100 CNY per ton [2] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 468 tons to 253,482 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 708 tons to 34,493 tons [2] - The nickel market is under pressure due to weak demand in the stainless steel sector, despite tight raw material supply in the new energy industry [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed slight strength, with AO2601 closing at 2,733 CNY per ton, a 0.07% increase [3] - SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight decline, with AL2512 closing at 21,405 CNY per ton, up 0.12% [3] - The aluminum market is facing pressure from inventory buildup and cautious macroeconomic sentiment, despite some recovery in aluminum ingot outflows [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 8,940 CNY per ton, down 1% [4] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract closing at 53,315 CNY per ton, a 1.15% rise [4] - The market for polysilicon is under pressure due to reduced orders for silicon wafers, although there is a strong intent to maintain prices for silicon materials [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 2.88% to 90,480 CNY per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 150 CNY per ton to 92,150 CNY per ton [6] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons, with significant contributions from spodumene and brine sources [6] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for 14 consecutive weeks, but the pace of inventory reduction is slowing, indicating potential price risks in the short term [6]

市场情绪扰动，盘面波动加剧 工业硅/多晶硅 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格波动幅度加大。截至2025年11月21日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8900元/吨， 环比上周持平。期货方面，本周主力合约偏弱震荡后大幅冲高回落，截至11月21日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工率保持稳定，供应以稳为主；西北青海、宁夏、甘肃地区开工变化不大；云南地区个别硅企有减 停，产量小幅回落；四川地区平水期，月底将进入枯水期，开工率将进一步下调。整体而言，工业硅产量环比下降。 需求：多晶硅企业周度开工环比持稳，对工业硅需求较为稳定；有机硅开工环比基本稳定，近期有少量单体产能增开， 有机硅反内卷会议后价格出现调涨，引发硅能源大幅反弹，但随后市场逐步消化情绪，价格也有所回落；铝合金企业 开工率小幅增加，下游订单需求尚可。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计11月20日工业硅全国社会库存共计54.8万吨， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 高位出现分歧，锂价面临回调压力 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：去库加大、成本上移 ，工业 硅震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.92 万吨，环比-1.42%；全国开炉262 台，环比-5台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.97 吨，环比-2.84%，开炉数环比-2台。内蒙古地区周产1.11 万吨，环比-1.60%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周 | | | | 产0.69 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比-2台。四川地区周产0.68 万吨，环比-1.4 ...

工业硅周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 市场情绪降温，工业硅冲高回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅冲高回落，主因工业品市场情绪有所回落，多 晶硅产能出清平台仍未落地，有机硅减产情绪短期有所释 放。供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持85%，西南地区枯水 期开工率回落，内蒙和甘肃产量平稳，供应端继续收缩； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅产能出清平台迟迟无法兑现，龙头 企业挺价撑市但下游 ...