1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply contraction provides price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply contraction in February provides price support, but downstream cost drags down demand, and the large inventory is being reduced slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,375 yuan/ton and closed at 8,335 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.42)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 307,764 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 11, 2026 was 19,317 lots, a change of 1,200 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, and large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, so the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Polysilicon - On February 12, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 48,840 yuan/ton and closed at 49,015 yuan/ton, a 0.44% change in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 37,702 (38,313 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 4,540 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. N - type material was 48.50 - 58.00 (-0.40) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.90, with a 2.30% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 6.14% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100.00 tons, with a 0.00% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, a - 3.18% month - on - month change [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - The prices of battery chips were stable. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery chips were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery chips were about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4] - The mainstream transaction prices of components were stable. PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market continues to exhibit a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating amid a tug-of-war between supply contraction and weak demand [1][3]. Supply Side - The supply side has confirmed a tightening trend, particularly with leading enterprises in Xinjiang continuing their production reduction plans, significantly limiting output [2]. - In the southwestern regions of Yunnan and Sichuan, low operating rates persist due to electricity costs and seasonal factors, with weak recovery intentions [2]. - Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia are still undergoing maintenance, contributing to the overall supply contraction in February, which provides a bottom support for the market but is insufficient to drive prices upward [2]. Demand Side - Overall downstream demand remains weak, with various sectors showing lackluster performance [2]. - In the polysilicon sector, despite previous production cuts and policy disruptions creating a "rush for exports" effect, overall inventory pressure remains high, leading to cautious procurement of industrial silicon [2]. - The organic silicon market continues to see weak trading, with mainstream DMC prices holding steady between 13,800 and 14,000 yuan/ton, and production strategies focusing on staggered and self-disciplined reductions, providing limited support for industrial silicon consumption [2]. - The aluminum alloy sector has seen a slight decline in operating rates as the Spring Festival approaches, with procurement strictly based on rigid demand, limiting any potential increase [2]. - The export market remains tepid, with weak purchasing intentions from overseas clients and limited tender quantities, putting continued pressure on FOB prices [2]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is characterized by "clear supply contraction, persistent weak demand, fluctuating futures, and stable spot prices" [3]. - The core market dynamics have shifted from production reduction expectations to actual demand verification [3]. - Prices are currently caught between cost support and demand suppression, with a slow downward adjustment in the fluctuation center [3]. - In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with a focus on the actual inventory reduction situation before and after the Spring Festival, as well as the resumption progress and procurement rhythm of downstream industries [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but high polysilicon inventories suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][2]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints, and the large - scale inventory reduction is slow, suppressing price increases. There is currently no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8370 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.48)% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2605 held 303387 positions at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 10, 2026, was 18117, a change of 1368 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 56.2 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1]. - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be sluggish. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were few new orders, polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1]. - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated upward, opening at 48125 yuan/ton and closing at 49180 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 38313 positions (38617 the previous day), and the trading volume was 4793 [2]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a 2.40% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 3.77% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 20100.00 tons, a (-0.50)% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer output was 10.38GW, a (-11.66)% month - on - month change [2]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillation in the short term. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2][4][5]. Other Products - In the silicon wafer market, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.13 (-0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.43 (-0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.23 (-0.05) yuan/piece [3]. - In the battery cell market, the prices of various types of battery cells remained stable, such as the efficient PERC182 battery cell at 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction prices of various components remained stable, such as PERC182mm at 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [4]. - Two photovoltaic cell renovation projects in Hefei, Anhui, with a total investment of 34,637 million yuan, were publicly announced for environmental assessment [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Indonesian news disturbances reappear, and attention should be paid to the risks of speculative attributes [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Favorable sentiment boosts the market, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday capital behavior [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The market volatility has decreased [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Some warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and attention should be paid to the impact of sentiment [2][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 139,360, with a change of 6,010 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,040, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; the Indonesian nickel miner association revealed that the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products will be revised; some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land; the KPPU reported monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park; the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has approved the 2026 mining work plan and budget; a Swiss investment group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 150,260, with a change of 12,920 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, position, and various lithium - related product prices also showed corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 10, 2026, Gotion High - tech and BASF signed a strategic cooperation memorandum. Gotion High - tech has made progress in its solid - state battery project, and there have been multiple cooperation agreements in the new energy battery field [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,375, with a change of - 75 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 48,950, with a change of - 420 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, position, price differences, and inventory also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's 2026 - 27 fiscal year federal budget shows that the new energy and renewable energy department will receive a 24% increase in total funding, with a 32% increase in photovoltaic industry funding [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [15].

报告周期:日报 成文日期: 2026年2月10日 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) 工业硅期货目报 一、行情回顾 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 今日（2026年2月10日）工业硅期货主力合约 SI2605 呈现震 荡下行走势。当日开盘 8430元/吨,最高价为 8470元/吨,最低 8350 元/吨．收盘价为 8375 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 130 元/吨。 持仓量 303387 手,品种总持仓量今日达到 418432 手,较前一交易 日增加 12176 手，显示市场参与度有所提升。 二、现货市场 2026 年 2 月 10 日中国工业硅现货领先价格为 9106 元/吨，期 货价格贴水现货价格,反映市场对远期价格的谨慎预期。 三、主要影响因素 二三】 二十 行业库存压力：市场消息显示当前工业硅库存处于累库阶段, 市场对仓单情况保持密切关注，库存压力对期货价格形成压制。 下游需求预期：2 月 5 日中国光伏行业协会发布的《中国光伏 产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply has significantly contracted, providing price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply has shrunk in February, supporting prices, but downstream cost pressure has led to weak demand. High inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,515 yuan/ton and closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 277,011 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 8, 2026, was 16,737 lots, an increase of 564 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, major polysilicon manufacturers cut production, supply shrank, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - In February, large manufacturers had plans to cut production and shut down, and with the Spring Festival approaching, supply was expected to decrease [1] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Short - term range trading is recommended. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and rose. It opened at 49,500 yuan/ton and closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,347 lots (37,934 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 4,706 lots [2] - Polysilicon spot prices rose slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 yuan/kg (+0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a 3.77% change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100 tons, a - 0.50% change, and silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a - 11.66% change [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece (-0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece) [3] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [3][4] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W (unchanged) [4] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range trading is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, macro factors continued to dominate the financial market. Concerns about the AI bubble resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in global markets, including stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. However, Shanghai copper rebounded due to news of increased state purchases and then declined again with the external market, finally stabilizing at around 100,000 [4]. - The copper market's sharp decline was mainly driven by sudden panic in the macro - level, and some factors that previously pushed copper prices to new highs have changed. But copper will remain a focus of global strategic resource competition, and its structural shortage may continue. Before the Spring Festival, copper prices may stabilize after a rapid release of risks [4]. - The aluminum market shows mixed trends. Alumina production capacity has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply is increasing unexpectedly. The demand of downstream enterprises is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment disturbances and pre - holiday capital outflows [4]. - The lead market has sufficient supply and weak demand. Affected by the decline in precious metal prices, lead prices hit a new low in 2026. After the pre - holiday profit - taking of short - selling funds in precious metals, the market may stabilize [4]. - The nickel market has a strong support at the mine end, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are affected by production cuts on both the supply and demand sides, and are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as mine risks and changes in supply and demand. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the power demand off - season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - **Economic data of the current week (2/2 - 2/8)**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, higher than the previous value; the eurozone's January manufacturing PMI was 49.5; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2022; the US January ADP employment increase was 22,000, lower than expected; the US January ISM services PMI was 53.8, reaching a new high since 2024 [12][13][15][17][18]. - **Policy and news**: China's Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the national reserve; US President Donald Trump plans to invest $12 billion in strategic key mineral reserves [14][16]. - **Next - week economic data calendar (2/9 - 2/15)**: It includes data such as China's January M1 and M2 money supply year - on - year, the US January NFIB small business optimism index, and the US January unemployment rate [20]. 2. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper first rebounded and then declined, and finally stabilized at around 100,000. The copper market was mainly affected by macro factors and inventory changes [4]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper inter - period spread curve, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [30][33]. 3. Aluminum - **Market review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the overall upward trend temporarily maintained [37]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes 6063 aluminum rod inventory, alumina port inventory, aluminum bauxite port inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, and alumina production cost and profit [41][42][43][45]. 4. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the upward trend of shock temporarily unchanged [50]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory/warehouse receipts, global visible zinc inventory, 0 zinc ingot premium, zinc forward curve, and zinc - related product prices [52][53][58][59]. 5. Lead - **Market review**: Shanghai lead showed a downward trend of shock, with overall range fluctuations [65]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory/warehouse receipts, global lead inventory, lead forward curve, lead spot premium, and LME lead (spot/three - month) spread [67][70][74]. 6. Nickel - **Market review**: Shanghai nickel fell from a high level and was under pressure from the lower edge of the upper shock area [78]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, LME nickel global inventory, high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plate prices, nickel and nickel sulfate prices, and stainless steel inventory [81][82][87][88][90][91][92]. 7. Tin - **Market review**: Shanghai tin continued to decline after rising, and was temporarily supported by the lower trend line [95]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes tin futures closing prices, Shanghai tin premium, tin smelting profit, LME tin (spot/three - month) spread, tin - related product prices, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory, and LME tin inventory [98][99][100][101][104]. 8. Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.) - **Trend analysis**: Shanghai gold rebounded after falling from a high level, maintaining an overall upward trend; Shanghai silver fell again after a rebound, breaking through the previous low, and the trend weakened; platinum and palladium showed wide - range fluctuations; industrial silicon showed wide - range fluctuations and broke through the lower limit of the range; alumina showed small - range fluctuations; polysilicon showed small - range fluctuations and stabilized; aluminum alloy showed small - range fluctuations and the downward trend changed; stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell from high levels, and the upward trend changed [109][111][112][114][116][118][119][122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are "oscillation" for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, and "wait - and - see" for polysilicon [7][8][73] 2. Report's Core View - Before the holiday, the macro - sentiment weakened, and commodity prices fluctuated greatly. For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest decreased, and demand entered the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing and prices expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, the existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors are advised to be cautious. For lithium carbonate, the pre - holiday restocking is basically completed, and attention should be paid to the battery rush - to - export market from after the holiday to the end of the first quarter [2][7][8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) 3.1.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.05%. The number of open furnaces nationwide was 178, a decrease of 32 compared to the previous week. In January, the output was 375,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 23.48%. The planned output in February is 273,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. In the main producing areas, Xinjiang's weekly output was 38,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.86%, and the number of open furnaces decreased by 29. Yunnan's weekly output was 4,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.67%, and the number of open furnaces decreased by 2 [7] 3.1.2 Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output was 19,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The factory inventory was 330,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%. The profit per ton was about 6,124 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 642 yuan/ton. In January, the output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The planned output in February is 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output was 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.90%. The factory inventory was 39,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The gross profit per ton was 1,956.25 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97 yuan/ton. In January, the output was 203,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The planned output in February is 171,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29% [7] 3.1.3 Inventory - The visible inventory was 506,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, with fluctuations and a year - on - year decrease of 29.00%. The industry inventory was 422,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.76%. Among them, the market inventory was 187,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%, and the factory inventory was 235,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 83,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.12%, with inventory accumulation [7] 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton was 9,065 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%. The gross profit per ton was - 47 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. In the main producing areas, the gross profit decreased. The average gross profit per ton in Xinjiang and Yunnan was 263 yuan/ton and - 460 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton and 92 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7] 3.1.5 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "oscillation". Considering the high level of visible inventory, the impact of changes in supply and demand is weakened, and prices are expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for the single - side is "oscillation", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of large - scale plant production reduction and resumption and environmental protection policy changes [7] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 19,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. In January, the output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The planned output in February is 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54% [8] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.70 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The gross profit per GW was - 31,587 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15,495 yuan. The factory inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77%. In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93 GW, a month - on - month increase of 4.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The planned output in February is 45.31 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.23%. In December 2025, the new installed capacity was 40.18 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 43.30% and a month - on - month increase of 82.47%. The total installed capacity in 2025 was 315.07 GW, a year - on - year increase of 13.67% [8] 3.2.3 Inventory - The factory inventory was 330,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, with fluctuations. The registered warehouse receipts were 25,830 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.62%, with continuous increase [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton was 43,876 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%. The gross profit per ton was 6,124 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 642 yuan [8] 3.2.5 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "wait - and - see". The existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors should pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate with caution. The trading strategy for the single - side is "wait - and - see", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of large - scale plant production reduction and resumption and anti - involution policy changes [8] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) 3.3.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 20,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.82%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from spodumene was 12,454 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.96%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 2,922 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.18%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from salt lakes was 3,130 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. In January, the lithium carbonate output was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The planned output in February is about 81,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31% and a year - on - year increase of 27.92% [73] 3.3.2 Import - In December, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. Among them, the import volume from Chile was 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.74%. In December, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 8,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.60%. In December, the import volume of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22%. Among them, the import volume from Australia was 309,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.18% and a year - on - year increase of 1.89%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 130,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.15% and a year - on - year increase of 39.50% [73] 3.3.3 Demand - For lithium iron phosphate materials, the weekly output was 97,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.96%. The factory inventory was 95,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%. In January, the output was 396,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% and a year - on - year increase of 57.00%. The planned output in February is 354,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% and a year - on - year increase of 54.94%. For ternary materials, the weekly output was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The factory inventory was 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40%. In January, the output was 81,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 48.50%. The planned output in February is about 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.45%. In December, the production volume of new energy vehicles was 1.718 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. The sales volume was 1.71 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. In December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 52.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 pct. In November, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000, a month - on - month increase of 17.19% and a year - on - year increase of 261.45%. In the first quarter, due to the preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles and the withdrawal of national subsidies, combined with the pre - placement of demand in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles may decrease month - on - month. In 2025, the total winning bid power/scale for energy storage was 77.69 GW/203.4 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 89.72%/123.98% [73] 3.3.4 Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 105,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88%, with continuous inventory reduction. The inventory of lithium salt factories was 18,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.40%. The inventory of downstream sectors (cathode material factories, battery factories, and traders) was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%. Among them, the inventory of cathode material factories was 43,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.53%, and the inventory of battery factories + traders was 43,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.25%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 33,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.80% [73] 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 140,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.57%. The production profit was - 1,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,391 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from spodumene was 138,941 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.27%. The production profit was 3,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6,103 yuan/ton. For integrated lithium extraction, the cash production cost of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 63,218 yuan/ton, and the cash production cost of lithium extraction from spodumene was 55,276 yuan/ton [73] 3.3.6 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "oscillation". Affected by the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity before the holiday, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated greatly. In the short term, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. Attention should be paid to the battery rush - to - export market from after the holiday to the end of the first quarter. The trading strategy for the single - side is "oscillation", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of ore - end production reduction, environmental protection policy changes, and the disturbances of large - scale power plants [73]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7.1万吨，环比有所减少13.41%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6万吨，环比减少20.00%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为34.1万吨，处 于中性水平，硅片亏损，电池片盈利，组件盈利；有机硅库存为47200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润 为2570元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金 锭库存为6.74万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为037元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为608.01元/吨， 再生铝开工率为58.3%，还比减少1.01%,处于高位。 1、基本面: 偏空 ...