Report Date - The report is dated November 5, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,100 ringgit. Affected by potential negative factors such as MPOA production growth and a significant drop in exports in the first five days of November, there is pressure for the futures to weaken further to 4,000 ringgit, with a possibility of briefly falling below this level. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report, the futures are expected to gradually stop falling, stabilize, and then start a slow upward trend. The overall view is near - term weakness and long - term strength, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively hold above 4,000 ringgit [3] - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillating pattern. Dragged down by the weakening trend of Malaysian palm oil and the continuous decline in domestic port inventories, there is pressure to repeatedly test the 8,500 - yuan support level in the short term. After stabilizing through oscillations around 8,500 yuan, with the boost of the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures also have the opportunity to follow the upward trend. The overall view is near - term weakness and long - term strength, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively hold above 8,500 yuan [3] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals have not changed significantly, with sufficient supply and limited demand. Internationally, CBOT soybeans have stopped rising and are adjusting, CBOT soybean oil is oscillating narrowly, and BMD palm oil is also showing signs of stopping the decline. Affected by factors such as limited US soybean exports, uncertainty about the industrial use of US soybean oil, and the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventories, all three varieties may decline, which will impact the domestic oil market. Although the government has lowered the import tariff on US soybeans today, the market feedback indicates that US soybeans still do not have a price advantage, so it has little impact on the current trend of Dalian soybean oil. In the short term, Dalian soybean oil will maintain a narrow - range oscillating adjustment pattern. The January contract will oscillate narrowly between 8,050 yuan (lower daily - line track) and 8,200 yuan (middle - line track), and there is a possibility of falling to 8,000 yuan or even lower as the Bollinger Bands move downward [4] Bean Meal - The mill's fixed - price for bean meal first fell and then rose with the market. With the clarity of the US soybean import tariff, the mills are holding up prices slightly due to cost support. Some traders raised their quotes in the afternoon. Feed enterprises have relatively sufficient contracts, having purchased contracts for November - January earlier. In addition, the cost - effectiveness of bean meal remains obvious, so the overall trading rhythm is stable. Under the restraint of high - priced US soybeans, the pace of some forward purchases is slow, which may lead to a tight supply situation from January to February 2026. Therefore, some traders are entering the market to build some bottom positions, and the price is prone to rise and difficult to fall [14] Price Information Oil Futures Price Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | - 80 | - 22 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 90 | - 46 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 10 | 68 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 170 | - 20 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 88 | 8 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 258 | 12 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 363 | - 23 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 7 | 11 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 370 | 12 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 508 | 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 758 | 44 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 756 | - 10 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6892 | 0.34% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8169 | 0.62% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6746 | 0.61% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7817 | - 0.53% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8183 | 0.04% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.6792 | - 0.01% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8590 | - 0.3% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8696 | 0% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8616 | 0.12% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4148 | 0.12% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 8520 | 20 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | - 116 | - 2 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 449.57 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean Oil - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 2.81 | - 21.39 | [7] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8138 | 1.92% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7950 | 0.21% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7882 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 49.93 | 2.69% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8320 | 50 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 212 | 52 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 44.654 | - 10.122 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 30 | 100 | [11] Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3073 | 58 | 1.92% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2824 | 6 | 0.21% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2938 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2537 | 40 | 1.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2405 | 27 | 1.14% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2478 | 12 | 0.49% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1120.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.133 | 0.006 | 0.08% | [14] Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 197 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 119 | 8 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 88 | 2 | | M09 - 01 | - 80 | - 3 | RM09 - 01 | - 31 | - 10 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3040 | 0 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 25 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 83 | - 6 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 460 | 0 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 518 | - 17 | [15][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile trend. Due to concerns about increased inventory and slower exports, there is short - term pressure to weaken and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next week, if it can effectively stand above 4,000 ringgit, an upward trend may follow. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and the level of 4,000 ringgit should be closely monitored [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward - adjusted trend after opening higher. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, there is pressure to continue falling. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8,500 yuan. As Malaysian palm oil stabilizes at around 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also stabilize and rise. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and changes in Malaysian palm oil fundamentals and whether Dalian palm oil can stand above 8,500 yuan should be closely monitored [3]. Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range volatile trend. CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil are all in a volatile adjustment state, affecting the domestic oil market. Domestically, soybean oil supply is sufficient in most areas, but some areas have soybean meal overstock, leading to a decrease in the overall factory operating rate. Recently, due to low prices, some traders replenished stocks, and yesterday's trading volume increased. There are both bullish and bearish factors. The January contract is oscillating below the daily mid - track of 8,200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down; otherwise, there is a possibility of an upward trend after the oscillation [4]. Oilseeds (Soybean Meal) - Dalian soybean meal 01 contract declined due to the sharp drop in US soybeans yesterday and weak spot prices. However, the Brazilian premium is continuously strengthening, and the crushing profit has not significantly improved under the weak oil - meal background. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal may still test the resistance at 3,080 - 3,100 yuan in the short term. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton following the futures price. The near - month basis is weakly stable, with light overall trading volume. Feed mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and traders operate on a rolling basis. If China successfully purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, the supply will be loose in the first quarter of next year, and the basis will be under continuous pressure with limited upward space. In the short term, the spot price will mainly fluctuate within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan [17]. Group 4: Price and Spread Information Oil Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | - 66 | 40 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 90 | 10 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 24 | - 50 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 544 | - 92 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 792 | - 46 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 790 | - 56 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 182 | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 88 | 20 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 270 | - 14 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6688 | 0.78% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.832 | 0.6% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6932 | 0.39% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 391 | 46 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 24 | 31 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 415 | - 77 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7521 | 1.19% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.7968 | 0.76% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.6787 | 0.52% | [5] Palm Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,660 | - 0.82% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8,730 | - 0.77% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8,640 | - 0.78% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4,110 | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 8,520 | - 50 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | - 46 | 50 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 416.649 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | 46.08 | 5.95 | [8] Soybean Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,184 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7,960 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7,878 | - 0.34% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 49.28 | - 0.87% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8,290 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 212 | 52 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 45.172 | - 7.6468 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 130 | - 40 | [14] Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,058 | - 10 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,810 | - 17 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,930 | - 10 | - 0.34% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,539 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,416 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,487 | 0 | 0% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,108 | - 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | [17] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 241 | - 8 | RM01 - 05 | 133 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 113 | 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 71 | 2 | | M09 - 01 | - 128 | 7 | RM09 - 01 | - 62 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,040 | - 20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 25 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 31 | - 12 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 460 | 0 | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 519 | - 17 | [18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's October 2025 crude palm oil production increased 12.31% month - on - month to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high. The 2025/26 annual production is estimated at 19.2 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous forecast. The industry is entering a low - production cycle until early 2026 [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 annual palm oil production is expected to be 51 million tons, 4% higher than the previous forecast but lower than last year. The 2024/25 annual production was revised up to 53 million tons. However, due to structural challenges, production growth is expected to be negative [1]. - Short - term drought is expected to have a neutral impact on palm tree growth in both Malaysia and Indonesia, but concerns about drought in northern Sumatra may persist [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysia's October 2025 crude palm oil production: 2.07 million tons, up 12.31% month - on - month. Malay Peninsula production increased 6.57%, Sabah 19.83%, and Sarawak 21.25%. The 2025/26 annual production forecast is 19.2 million tons (range: 18.7 - 19.7 million tons). The first 9 months of this year saw a 0.3% year - on - year increase, due to slow replanting and aging palm trees [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 annual palm oil production forecast is 51 million tons (range: 46 - 56 million tons), 4% higher than the previous forecast but lower than last year. The 2024/25 annual production was revised up to 53 million tons. The first 8 months of this year had a 13.1% year - on - year increase [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from October 30, 2025, to November 5, 2025, are presented in a table [4]. Other Information - Main producer precipitation, import soybean crushing profit, and grease import profit are mentioned but no detailed data provided [3]. - Grease basis, grease and oilseed price spread, and protein meal basis are mentioned but no detailed data provided [7][10][13]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed results on November 5, with rapeseed meal futures rising over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, rapeseed meal futures increased by 1.60% to 2537.00 CNY/ton, while rapeseed oil futures decreased by 0.52% to 9427.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures rose by 0.40% to 3040.00 CNY/ton, and soybean oil futures increased by 0.45% to 3759.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for various oilseed futures on November 5 included soybean oil at 8094.00 CNY, palm oil at 8590.00 CNY, and rapeseed oil at 9434.00 CNY [2] - The closing prices for these contracts were soybean oil at 8142.00 CNY, palm oil at 8652.00 CNY, and rapeseed oil at 9476.00 CNY [2] - The trading volume for rapeseed meal futures was stable at 2497.00 CNY, while soybean meal futures opened at 3010.00 CNY and closed at 3028.00 CNY [2] Group 3 - As of November 4, the number of rapeseed oil futures warehouse receipts was 9440, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day [3] - The warehouse receipts for peanut futures remained unchanged at 0, while rapeseed meal futures held steady at 2955 [3] - The data indicated a phenomenon of "backwardation" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, palm oil, and soybean products [3] Group 4 - The spot price for rapeseed oil was 9773.33 CNY, with a basis of 297 CNY, resulting in a basis rate of 3.04% [4] - The spot price for rapeseed meal was 2551.67 CNY, with a basis of 54 CNY, leading to a basis rate of 2.12% [4] - Other commodities such as palm oil and soybean meal also showed positive basis values, indicating a favorable market condition for these products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market in supporting the real economy and enhancing risk management for various industries, particularly in the context of increasing price volatility in global markets [1][2]. Group 1: Role of Futures Market - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has listed 27 futures products and 20 options, covering key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and chemicals, forming a market-based risk management chain [1]. - The collaboration between Dahuacaifang and ZCE aims to explore the practical applications of the futures market in supporting the construction of a strong manufacturing and agricultural nation [1]. Group 2: Risk Management in Industries - In the context of rising commodity price fluctuations, futures tools are becoming essential for stabilizing operations across various industries, transitioning from single hedging to multi-dimensional tools [2]. - Companies like COFCO and Dongguan Fuzhiyuan are utilizing futures tools to effectively manage price volatility risks, shifting from traditional pricing to basis trading as a mainstream practice [3][5]. Group 3: Case Studies of Successful Implementation - Dongguan Fuzhiyuan has adopted a systematic hedging approach since 2004, forming a risk-sharing mechanism with upstream and downstream enterprises [5]. - Guangzhou Yelong International Trade Company has developed four trading models, including basis trading and futures-spot combinations, to enhance profitability and manage risks [7][8]. Group 4: Impact on Chemical Industry - The launch of futures for caustic soda at ZCE provides chemical enterprises with diverse risk management strategies, addressing the increasing price volatility in the sector [11][13]. - Companies like Dongbo Chemical have established a futures-spot risk management system, leading to over 20% growth in sales and 30% increase in exports in recent years [13]. Group 5: Future Directions - The chemical industry is shifting from scale competition to a comprehensive competition model that includes energy efficiency and carbon management, with futures tools playing a crucial role in this transition [13][14]. - Companies are encouraged to promote derivative business models and enhance risk management capabilities across the industry [14].

1. Report's Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures show an obvious sign of breaking downward, pressured by concerns of increased production and slowed exports. It is expected to seek support between 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit. The potential increase in end - month inventory may further dampen the market [3]. - Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are dragged down by the Malaysian market, with short - term pressure to decline to 8,500 yuan. It may follow the upward trend after the Malaysian palm oil stabilizes around 4,000 ringgit, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, the supply of soybean oil is abundant while demand is weak, and high soybean import costs support the oil mills. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil reached a low of 8,066 yuan today. It is supported at 8,000 yuan in the short term. Its trend depends on the movement of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil [4]. Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal 01 contract fluctuates upward, influenced by import costs and the weak performance of the oil sector. It follows the movement of US soybeans, and there is a risk of profit - taking causing a price dip to test the 3,000 - yuan support. The overall upward trend remains. Spot prices are adjusted within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [16]. 2. Price and Spread Information Palm Oil - Futures spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; P 5 - 9 is 202 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; P 9 - 1 is - 152 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [5]. - Spot and futures prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4,097 ringgit/ton, down 2.61%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8,550 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [7]. Soybean Oil - Futures spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Y 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton, unchanged; Y 9 - 1 is - 262 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Spot and futures prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 48.62 cents/pound, down 1.94%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8,270 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Futures prices: Bean meal 01 is 3,026 yuan, up 5 yuan (0.17%); Rapeseed meal 01 is 2,491 yuan, up 103 yuan (4.31%) [17]. - Spreads: M01 - 05 is 208 yuan, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 46 yuan, down 20 yuan [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent data indicating an increase in production and exports, but facing pressure from high domestic oilseed inventories and uncertain policies in Indonesia [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 3, the palm oil futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 8732.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 8754.00 CNY and a low of 8638.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 1.36% [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Producers Association (SPPOMA) reported a month-on-month increase in palm oil yield by 4.50%, oil extraction rate by 0.20%, and production by 5.55% for the period of October 1-31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Price Influences - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade set the reference price for crude palm oil at $963.75 per ton for November, slightly higher than October's price of $963.61 per ton [1]. - Amspec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, noted that palm oil exports for October 1-31 reached 1,501,945 tons, up 4.31% from the previous month [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Donghai Futures indicated that palm oil has entered a technically oversold phase after consecutive declines, suggesting increased risks for short positions. Despite short-term production pressures, the seasonal destocking trend remains unchanged [1]. - Industrial factors such as disappointing domestic production and sales data, uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's biodiesel policies, and high domestic oilseed inventories are expected to continue exerting pressure on palm oil prices in the short term [2].

蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/03 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： ITS：马来西亚10月棕榈油出口量环比增加5.2% 船货检验机构IntertekTesting Services（简称ITS）发布的数据显示，马来西亚10月棕榈油产品出口量为 1,639,089吨，较上月的1,558,247吨增加5.2%。 印尼敲定11月毛棕榈油参考价为963.75美元/吨 印尼贸易部表示，印尼敲定11月毛棕榈油参考价为每吨963.75美元，略高于10月的每吨963.61美元。 这意味着11月份的毛棕榈油出口税将持平于目前的每吨124美元。印尼还对棕榈油征收10%的专项税。 截至10月22日当周，加拿大萨斯喀彻温省油菜作物收割率为98.14% 官方数据显示，截至10月22日当周，加拿大萨斯喀彻温省油菜作物收割率为98.14%，待直接收割的比例为1.44%， 已割晒作物占比为0.1%，立于田间的作物比例为0.31%。 截至10月13日当周，曼尼托巴省的油菜籽收割近乎结束。单产在每英亩30-60蒲式耳之间，平均单产接近每英亩45 蒲式耳。 截至10月14日当周，阿尔伯塔省油菜收割率为98. ...

Report Date - The report is dated October 31, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and trending weaker. There's potential to fall below 4,200 ringgit and further to 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit due to concerns of slowing exports and increasing production. After the current decline and risk release from the MPOB report, prices may stabilize and rebound. Starting from November, decreasing production and inventory will support price increases [3] - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend. After breaking below the 8,800 yuan support, there's pressure to fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. Following the rebound of Malaysian palm oil above 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also strengthen. A near - weak, far - strong market view is maintained [3] Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures opened higher but closed lower, dragged down by the falling BMD palm oil and the decline of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is abundant and demand is weak. There's a possibility that the January contract may fall to 8,000 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rebound, Dalian soybean oil will be boosted; otherwise, the January contract may break below the integer mark [4] Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - The factory - set price of soybean meal has increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, while the near - month basis has declined. Due to falling pig prices and continuous losses in the breeding industry, downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Traders are cautious. If US soybeans are imported at the basic tariff, it will improve the supply in the first quarter of next year, but the key lies in the release of oil mill profit margins. After the price correction, there's still a chance for the price to rise [17] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 is - 46 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2; BMD palm oil主力 is 4,211 ringgit/ton, down 1.15% [5][8] - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 is 184 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12; CBOT soybean oil主力 is 49.58 cents/pound, down 1.06% [5][14] Oilseed Price and Spread - Soybean meal: The closing price of bean粕01 is 3,021 with a daily increase of 27 and a rise of 0.9%; the difference between M01 - 05 is 195 with a daily increase of 29 [18][19] - Rapeseed meal: The closing price of菜粕01 is 2,388, down 13 and - 0.54%; the difference between RM01 - 05 is 66 with a daily increase of 23 [18][19]