1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market rebounded on Wednesday, with the technology sector leading the rise and consumer stocks experiencing a correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, but the basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals stopped rising and slightly corrected at high levels due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the resilience of the US economy, and the rebound of the US dollar [9]. - The shipping index (European line) EC showed a volatile trend. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, copper prices rose rapidly due to supply concerns, while the price of alumina was in a state of wide - range bottom - level oscillation with limited downward space [12][17]. - The prices of black metals were also volatile. Steel prices continued to oscillate, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke were affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [41][44][47]. - The prices of agricultural products showed different trends. The purchase of Argentine soybeans by China weakened the expected supply gap of domestic meal products, while the price of live pigs was stable in supply and demand and difficult to improve before the National Day [55][58]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, the A - share market opened lower and then oscillated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%. The technology sector led the rise, while consumer stocks corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2512 and IH2512 rising 1.69% and 0.94% respectively, and IC2512 and IM2512 rising 3.90% and 3.21% respectively. The basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to oscillation. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 at a light position when the index corrects to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding Situation**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. However, after the market, the central bank announced that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations on a single - side strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On September 24, the US announced a trade agreement with the EU and a support plan for Argentina, which eased the risk of asset selling in Argentina and reduced the risk - aversion sentiment. The US new home sales increased significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded. International gold prices ended a three - day rising streak, falling 0.74% to $3736.07 per ounce, and international silver prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $43.89 per ounce [7][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of September 22, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next six weeks were in a certain range. For example, Maersk's quotation was $840 - 1279/FEU and $1400 - 2038/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Index**: As of September 22, the SCFIS European line index was 1254.92 points, a week - on - week decrease of 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9% to $1052/TEU [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 24, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The eurozone's composite PMI in August was 51, and the US manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures market oscillated. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in an oscillating market and pay attention to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 24, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 80045 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 80030 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [13]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident continued to cause supply concerns. Freeport announced force majeure, and it is expected that the mine will not return to its pre - accident production level until 2027. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline month - on - month [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the decline in copper prices, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, domestic social inventories decreased, and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply concern of global copper mines supported the copper price. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 24, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [17]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina decreased week - on - week, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous week [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected that the main contract will oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 24, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20680 yuan/ton, and the average premium of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased slightly [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, and the orders of profile enterprises improved, with the operating rates of various sectors remaining stable or increasing [20]. - **Inventory**: There was a positive signal in inventory. On September 24, the daily inventory of three - location aluminum ingots decreased by 0.85 tons, and the expectation of an approaching inventory inflection point was enhanced [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Although there is uncertainty at the macro level, the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is expected that the short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract referring to the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [21]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate) - **Zinc**: The price of zinc showed an oscillating trend. The supply was expected to be loose, and the upward space was limited. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [28]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply side provided support. The tin price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [29][32]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated upwards. The output of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand was stable. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 119000 - 124000 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel oscillated slightly upwards. The supply pressure existed, and the demand in the peak season was not significantly released. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract price was expected to oscillate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [41]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable, with rebar remaining stable and hot - rolled coil rising slightly [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost had support, and the profit of steel decreased from a high level. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - **Supply**: The output of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to August, and the output of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil remained at a high level [42]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year from January to August, and the export of steel maintained a high level [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased, and it was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [43]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: Steel prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. It was recommended to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder showed a slight change, and the futures price of iron ore oscillated [44]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, while the steel mill profitability rate decreased slightly [44]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [45]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It was recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot price of domestic coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal rose [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines increased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased [48][49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, the coking operation rate remained stable, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [50]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The second - round price cut of coke by steel mills was implemented, and some coking enterprises began to raise prices [52][54]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [53]. - **Supply**: The daily output of coke of independent coking plants and steel mills remained stable [53]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [54]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports increased [54]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal showed mixed trends, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [55]. - **Fundamentals**: China purchased at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans after Argentina取消谷物和油籽出口关税. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was faster than in previous years [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The price of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The supply of domestic soybean meal was abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal was expected to continue to weaken [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated. The national average price was 12.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm of retail farmers and secondary fattening farmers to slaughter increased [58]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of live pigs were stable, and the price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to oscillate and adjust [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia was generally weak, while the price in North China and the Huang - Huai region was partially strong. The port price decreased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in the four northern ports decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume also decreased [60]. - **Outlook**: The corn price was expected to oscillate weakly under the bearish expectation [60].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

Core Views - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rebounded after a sharp decline, with short - term fluctuations around 4350 ringgit. Supported by falling production and improved exports, it may rebound to 4400 - 4450 ringgit, but will face downward pressure again later. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a rebound, testing the 9000 - yuan support. After the Malaysian palm oil's rebound ends, Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend, possibly breaking 9000 yuan to seek support at 8800 yuan. After the National Day holiday, it may show a pattern of first weakening then strengthening [3]. - CBOT soybeans and soy oil stopped falling after a sharp decline, but the fundamentals remain bearish. In the domestic market, with the end of stockpiling approaching, the market will enter the holiday mode soon. The sufficient supply of soybeans in factories and the expected increase in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may drag down the futures market. The Dalian soy oil 1 - month contract will continue to test the 8000 - yuan support after a narrow - range oscillation [4]. - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products has increased the crushing profit of oil mills, leading to concentrated purchases of Argentine soybeans by domestic buyers, alleviating the tight supply expectation for December - January. The short - term support for the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is in the 2900 - 2920 - yuan range, and it may have a technical rebound before the holiday. The spot price of soybean meal has been adjusted down, and the near - month basis is strengthening. The market generally believes that the price inflection point may be postponed to November [18]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 198 | - 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 376 | 24 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 574 | - 16 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 238 | - 50 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 58 | 14 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 296 | 36 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 529 | 24 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 67 | - 30 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 596 | 6 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 968 | 26 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1008 | 68 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 690 | 78 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7616 | 0.15% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.8716 | - 1.11% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7401 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.085 | 1.81% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0666 | 0.13% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8988 | - 0.01% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9126 | 0.8% | | Palm oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8944 | 0.99% | | Palm oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8588 | 1.27% | | BMD palm oil main contract | ringgit/ton | 4372 | 0.67% | | 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 8970 | 110 | | 24 - degree basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 194 | - 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 470.392 | - 1.168 | | International soybean oil - crude palm oil | US dollars/ton | - 71.91 | 17.65 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8100 | 0.07% | | Soybean oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7852 | 0.59% | | Soybean oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7780 | 0.46% | | CBOT soybean oil main contract | cents/pound | 49.84 | 0.42% | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot | yuan/ton | 8270 | 120 | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis | yuan/ton | 64 | - 40 | | BOHO (weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 52.637 | - 8.563 | | Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil | yuan/ton | - 520 | 80 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal 01 | 2930 | 2 | 0.07% | | Soybean meal 05 | 2749 | 16 | 0.59% | | Soybean meal 09 | 2856 | 13 | 0.46% | | Rapeseed meal 01 | 2395 | - 52 | - 2.13% | | Rapeseed meal 05 | 2319 | - 9 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed meal 09 | 2398 | - 13 | - 0.54% | | CBOT yellow soybeans | 1012.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1136 | - 0.0042 | - 0.06% | [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 195 | - 57 | RM01 - 05 | 119 | - 36 | | M05 - 09 | - 110 | - 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 83 | - 9 | | M09 - 01 | - 85 | 58 | RM09 - 01 | - 36 | 45 | | Soybean meal Rizhao spot | 2930 | 0 | Soybean meal Rizhao basis | 2 | 56 | | Rapeseed meal Fujian spot | 2590 | - 65 | Rapeseed meal Fujian basis | 143 | 16 | | Soybean and rapeseed meal spot spread | 275 | - 50 | Soybean and rapeseed meal futures spread | 481 | - 25 | [20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Malaysian palm oil market shows that the August production increased by 4.3 million tons (+2.4%) to 1.85 million tons, mainly driven by the increase in Sabah and Sarawak, while the production in the Malaysian Peninsula declined after peaking in July [1] - August exports were basically the same as in July, at 1.32 million tons, with different trends in different regions [1] - Due to increased production and flat exports, August palm oil inventories reached 2.2 million tons, the highest since January 2024, and are expected to decline starting in November [1] - Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil market in the third quarter, with a 10.9% increase, while the performance of other vegetable oils varied, but the overall market sentiment is optimistic and the upward trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter [1] - In 2026, the consumption growth rate of the four major vegetable oils is expected to exceed the production growth rate, resulting in a small supply gap, which may support vegetable oil prices to remain firm for the rest of 2025 [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysian palm oil production in August increased by 4.3 million tons (+2.4%) to 1.85 million tons, driven by Sabah and Sarawak, while the Malaysian Peninsula's production declined [1] - August exports were flat at 1.32 million tons, with varying trends in different regions [1] - August inventories reached 2.2 million tons, the highest since January 2024, expected to rise slightly from September to October and decline starting in November [1] - Palm oil led the vegetable oil market in the third quarter, rising 10.9% quarter - on - quarter, while other vegetable oils had different performances, and the overall market sentiment is optimistic with the upward trend expected to continue into the fourth quarter [1] - In 2026, the consumption growth of the four major vegetable oils is expected to exceed production, leading to a supply gap, and factors such as increased biodiesel quotas in the US, Brazil, and potentially in Indonesia may support vegetable oil prices in the rest of 2025 [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products (soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are provided [1]

Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures oscillated strongly around 4,400 ringgit, supported by a 8%+ increase in export data in the first 20 days and a decline in production in the same period. There is an expectation of an upward trend after effectively reaching and stabilizing above 4,500 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rebounded. Short - term, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and break through the 9,500 yuan mark. After Malaysian palm oil rises above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil futures may also rise, but beware of unexpected declines before the National Day holiday [3]. Soybean Oil - International situation and domestic factors: Tensions in Europe and the Middle East led to a rise in international crude oil, boosting the vegetable oil market. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient with good consumption. There are also news of soybean oil exports. However, due to the approaching holidays, capital withdrawal, and the concentrated listing of US soybeans, the increase of Dalian soybean oil is limited, and a decline at the end of the month is possible [4]. Bean Meal - Futures: Affected by uncertain Sino - US tariff prospects, a slight increase in South American premiums, and expected end - of - month restocking, institutional short positions were reduced, and Dalian bean meal rebounded weakly. Short - term resistance is in the 3,050 - 3,080 yuan range [17]. - Spot: Oil mills raised prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply is temporarily abundant during the National Day, but due to transportation vehicle shortages and some traders' restocking, the market slightly improved, with prices oscillating between 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Data Summaries Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 was 202 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 was 322 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease; P 9 - 1 was - 524 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 was 276 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 was 62 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 was - 338 yuan/ton with no change [5]. - Others: Y - P 01 was - 988 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; Y/M 01 was 2.7631 with no change; OI 1 - 5 was 500 yuan/ton with an 11 - yuan increase; OI/RM 01 was 3.9921 with a 1.24% decrease [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures: Palm oil 01 was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase; Palm oil 05 was 9,154 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; Palm oil 09 was 8,802 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase [8]. - Spot: BMD palm oil main contract was 4,464 ringgit/ton with a 0.88% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was 9,260 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis was - 66 yuan/ton with a 28 - yuan increase [8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Futures: Soybean oil 01 was 8,366 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase; Soybean oil 05 was 8,078 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; Soybean oil 09 was 8,034 yuan/ton with a 0.28% decrease [13]. - Spot: Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan/ton with no change; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis was 142 yuan/ton with a 36 - yuan increase [13]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 closed at 3,034 with a 20 - point increase and a 0.66% rise; Bean meal 05 was 2,782 with a 4 - point decrease and a 0.14% decline; Bean meal 09 was 2,891 with an 8 - point decrease and a 0.28% decline [18]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was 2,528 with a 6 - point increase and a 0.24% rise; Rapeseed meal 05 was 2,373 with a 14 - point decrease and a 0.59% decline; Rapeseed meal 09 was 2,447 with a 7 - point decrease and a 0.29% decline [18]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Bean meal: M01 - 05 was 228 with no change; M05 - 09 was - 113 with a 4 - point increase; M09 - 01 was - 115 with a 4 - point decrease [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal: RM01 - 05 was 135 with a 22 - point increase; RM05 - 09 was - 67 with an 11 - point increase; RM09 - 01 was - 68 with a 33 - point decrease [19][21]. - Spot: The spot price difference between bean and rapeseed meal was 450 with a 5 - point decrease; the futures price difference was 492 with no change [21].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 22, with the main silver contract rising over 3% and gold contracts increasing by more than 2% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1459.65 points, up 7.48 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals remain the market's highlight, with silver prices continuing to rise and spot gold prices surpassing $3700 per ounce, reaching new highs [2] - The market sentiment for gold and silver is overwhelmingly bullish due to ongoing positive factors and increased safe-haven buying amid rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown [2] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation - The shipping index (European line) experienced a rebound, attributed to emotional recovery after a significant drop last week due to airline pricing adjustments during the off-season [2] - The market sentiment for shipping is stabilizing as the main contract transitions to a relatively busier season, with cautious expectations for further price declines [2] Group 4: Other Commodities - Oilseeds and oils showed an overall rebound, with prices for various soybean and oil products rising approximately 1% [3] - The main contract for polysilicon saw a significant decline of 3.63%, driven by a lack of new stimulus from policies and a still loose supply-demand balance [4] Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 1.67%, with a general downturn in the oil and gas sector as demand weakens with the arrival of the off-season [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions potentially affecting oil supply, the overall market is expected to face a widening supply-demand surplus, leading to a bearish outlook for crude oil prices [4]

Group 1: Report Core View - The global oil and fat market shows complex supply - demand dynamics in the 25/26 period. Despite an increase in global oil and fat production, the recovery of export and biodiesel demand since the second half of this year, along with palm oil supply issues, supports price increases. The supply of Malaysia and Indonesia is differentiated, with Malaysia's production possibly peaking in August while Indonesia's production recovers and inventory builds up. Global new - crop sunflower oil prices are not as weak as expected due to harvest delays and slow pressing growth. South American soybean oil has passed its export peak and has poor pressing profits. The rapeseed oil market is affected by policies, especially China - Canada relations. The trend - down of oil and fat prices may occur only if the palm oil production - reduction season in Malaysia and Indonesia is not obvious and the global biodiesel development slows down [195]. Group 2: Global Oilseeds and Oils Overview Production - Rapeseed production has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower seed production has been continuously adjusted downwards. In the 25/26 period, the production of some oilseeds is expected to change, with rapeseed showing an upward trend and sunflower seed a downward one [8]. - The production of rapeseed oil and palm oil has been continuously adjusted upwards, while sunflower oil production has been continuously adjusted downwards [29]. Export - Rapeseed export has been continuously adjusted upwards, sunflower seed export has been adjusted downwards multiple times, and soybean export has been recently adjusted upwards [15]. - The export of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil has been continuously adjusted downwards, while palm oil export has been continuously adjusted upwards [35]. Pressing - Rapeseed pressing has been continuously adjusted upwards, while soybean and sunflower seed pressing have been continuously adjusted downwards [21]. Inventory - Soybean and sunflower seed inventories are decreasing, while rapeseed inventory is increasing [23]. - The global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is slightly decreasing in the 25/26 period [38]. Group 3: Palm Oil Malaysia - Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia has been relatively good this year. From May, Malaysia's palm oil production has been below the average level for four consecutive months. In August, the production decreased by 2.05% year - on - year. The export in August increased by 1.19% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, and the cumulative export from January to August decreased by 10.80% year - on - year. The apparent consumption in August reached 490,000 tons, a record high. The inventory increased to 2.2 million tons. In September, there is a high possibility of production reduction, and the inventory build - up at the end of September may be limited [42][45][48][52]. Indonesia - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.99% month - on - month to 5.289 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to June was 27.89 million tons, 1.71 million tons more than the same period in 2024. The export in June increased by 35.56% month - on - month to 3.606 million tons. From July, production recovered again, and inventory began to build up. In August, production continued to recover, especially in the second half of August. Usually, the average production increase in September is the largest, but in 2025, due to precipitation and other factors, the actual increase may not reach the historical average of 5.43%. The inventory will continue to build up at the end of September, but the recovery will not be fast [60][68]. Group 4: Rapeseed EU - In August, the EU raised rapeseed production by 300,000 tons to 18.84 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 5.81 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing to 3.24 tons, a 2.15 - million - ton increase compared to the previous crop [75]. Canada - In August, Canada officially raised the 24/25 rapeseed production from 19.19 million tons to 20.1 million tons, with the planting area remaining at 8.68 million hectares and the yield per hectare increasing from 2.08 tons to 2.35 tons. Exports were raised from 6 million tons to 7 million tons, domestic consumption from 11.5 million tons to 12.18 million tons, and the ending inventory was 2.2 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 1.18 million tons [77]. Australia - Australia's 25/26 rapeseed production is 5.71 million tons, lower than the previous crop's 6.1 million tons, with both the planting area and yield per hectare decreasing. The harvest area is 3.379 million hectares, and the yield per hectare is 1.7 tons. Exports are 4.14 million tons, slightly higher than the previous crop's 4.1 million tons. The rapeseed is currently in the growing season and will enter the harvesting period in October [83]. Russia and Ukraine - Russia's 2025 total rapeseed production is expected to reach 5 million tons, higher than last year's 4.66 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed production is estimated to be 3.5 million tons due to a decrease in the planting area and unfavorable weather during the growing season [87]. Group 5: Soybean Oil Brazil - In August, Brazil's soybean oil export was 160,000 tons, higher than July's 138,000 tons but lower than June's 167,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to August was 1.11 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024 [89]. Argentina - In August, Argentina's soybean oil export was 545,000 tons, lower than July's 569,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to July was 4.14 million tons, higher than the same period in 2024. The export growth rate of both Brazil and Argentina's soybean oil is slowing down [92]. USA - In July, the US exported 28,500 tons of soybean oil. The inventory and consumption data also show certain trends, but specific details are presented in the relevant charts [101]. Group 6: India - As of September 16, the price differences between different oils in India have changed. The import, inventory, and consumption of various oils also show different trends. For example, the import of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil has specific data changes over time, and the consumption of these oils also varies monthly [111][115][126]. Group 7: Biodiesel Indonesia - In the first half of 2025, Indonesia distributed 7.96 billion liters of biodiesel, completing 51% of the 2025 target of 15.6 billion liters, which supports the demand for palm oil [132]. EU - The EU's RME processing profit is average, and the import and export of biodiesel are decreasing. The import of UCO from China is at a high level, and the import of raw materials from Malaysia and Indonesia also shows certain trends [133][135][137]. USA - In June, the proportion of soybean oil in biodiesel feedstock reached 36%, rising for several consecutive months. The proportion of animal fat and waste oils remained high, and the proportion of Canadian rapeseed oil decreased to 8%. The import of various raw materials also shows specific data changes [144][146]. Brazil - On June 25, Brazil officially approved increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) starting from August 1, and plans to reach 16% (B16) in March 2026 and 17% (B17) in March 2027, with a final target of 25% (B25) [162]. Group 8: Domestic Market Supply - The domestic soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes, as well as the import volumes of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, show specific data changes over time. The spot price differences between different oils are affected by factors such as taxes and import volumes [167][169][171][182]. Inventory - The inventory of domestic edible palm oil, sunflower oil, and other oils, as well as the total inventory of the four major oils, show certain trends over time [184]. Transaction - The downstream purchases more soybean oil, especially the forward basis. The spot transaction of palm oil remains at a low level, and the domestic rapeseed oil transaction slows down after the sellable quantity of oil mills decreases [191]. Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of domestic oils shows the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other aspects over time [194].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend. Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the Malaysian palm oil hovers around 4,400 ringgit. After a short - term consolidation and stabilization, with potential bullish factors such as slower production growth and increasing exports, the crude palm oil futures may strengthen. If it effectively stands above 4,500 ringgit, an upward oscillatory rally may occur. It's advisable to closely monitor whether it can stand above 4,400 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures market also shows an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support of the 60 - day moving average. If the Malaysian palm oil strengthens, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, it may open up new upside space. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. It's necessary to closely watch whether it can stand above the 60 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Soybean Oil Today, the soybean oil futures rebounded due to the rise of rapeseed oil (anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed) and good consumption during the last stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling. The news of soybean oil exports also provided support. However, the supply is sufficient, and with the upcoming China - US leaders' call, the market is waiting to see if it involves agricultural product purchases, resulting in limited price fluctuations. The January contract is oscillating above 8,300 yuan. If the call reveals China's purchase of US soybeans, the increase in soybean supply in the fourth quarter may drag down the far - term contracts, while the rise of CBOT soybeans may boost the near - term contracts. Otherwise, the January contract will maintain the current narrow - range oscillation [4]. 2.3 Oilseeds (Bean Meal) The bean meal futures once broke through the support level due to the increasing expectation of a China - US trade tariff agreement and weak market reality. But it rebounded slightly during the day under the influence of the sharp rise of rapeseed meal and profit - taking by some institutions. The short - term market is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the futures price continues to fluctuate around 3,000 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - term basis remained stable. With high inventory pressure, oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods and even repurchase some contracts. However, due to the weak peak - season consumption and the decline in pig存栏, feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The spot price of bean meal has limited upward momentum and will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 9,316 yuan/ton, 9,114 yuan/ton, and 8,792 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.09%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,447 ringgit/ton, up 0.27%. There are also data on price spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, etc. [5][8] - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,328 yuan/ton, 8,052 yuan/ton, and 7,990 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.17 cents/pound, down 1.25%. There are also data on price spreads such as Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, etc. [5][13] 3.2 Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: Bean meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 3,014, 2,786, and 2,899 respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. Rapeseed meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 2,522, 2,387, and 2,454 respectively, with daily increases of 2.11%, 1.27%, and 0.78%. The CBOT yellow soybean is at 1,038.75, with no change [18]. - **Spread**: There are data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 228, up 7; RM01 - 05 is 113, up 14 [19][21]

Group 1 - On September 19, domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend, with canola oil and canola meal rising over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, canola meal futures increased by 1.26% to 2500.00 CNY/ton, while canola oil futures rose by 1.32% to 10098.00 CNY/ton [1] - Other notable increases included soybean meal up 0.60% to 3692.00 CNY/ton and peanuts up 0.54% to 7886.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The futures prices on September 19 were as follows: soybean oil at 8298.00 CNY, palm oil at 9314.00 CNY, canola oil at 9986.00 CNY, soybean meal at 2995.00 CNY, canola meal at 2475.00 CNY, and peanuts at 7866.00 CNY [2] - The trading volumes for various futures contracts showed stability, with soybean oil at 24544 lots, palm oil at 1570 lots, and canola oil at 8206 lots, all remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Group 3 - As of September 18, the basis data indicated that several contracts, including canola oil, canola meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, experienced a phenomenon of "backwardation," where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - The basis and basis rates for various commodities were reported, with canola oil showing a basis of 140 CNY and a basis rate of 1.39%, while canola meal had a basis of 137 CNY and a basis rate of 5.26% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short on soybean meal, medium - term range - bound trading with a strategy of selling on rallies [1] Core Viewpoints - Although the USDA has repeatedly lowered the global new - crop soybean supply, the oversupply situation of global soybeans, especially soybean meal, has not significantly improved. The low - valued US soybeans have been in a monthly - level range - bound state. The rapid expansion of Brazil's planting area and the declining global soybean meal consumption growth rate are the main causes of the global soybean surplus. In the short term, due to the delayed improvement in the supply - demand pattern, there is still room for the valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal to decline. The market may first trade on the domestic real - supply pressure, US soybean harvest pressure, and US soybean import expectations, leading to a decline in soybean meal futures. When both US soybeans and domestic crushing margins are at low levels, the market will enter a new game. The strategy is to try short - selling soybean meal and reverse - spreading the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal in the short term, and mainly adopt the idea of range - bound trading and selling on rallies in the medium term [1] Summary by Directory 1. Global New - Crop Soybean Yield Estimate Declines Marginally, but Unable to Break out of the Downturn - In September, the USDA estimated that the global soybean output in the 25/26 season would decline by 520,000 tons month - on - month, but the total output would still reach 426 million tons, the highest in history, with a year - on - year increase of 1.67 million tons. The rapid expansion of Brazil's planting area and the declining global soybean meal consumption growth rate are the main causes of the global soybean surplus. In the 22/23 and 23/24 seasons, the failure to achieve excess output due to droughts in Argentina and Brazil led to a phased sharp rise in soybean meal prices. However, in the 24/25 season, the three major producing countries had a good harvest, resulting in an oversupply situation where US soybeans are trading below the planting cost range, and domestic soybean meal is also following a weak trend. China's soybean meal demand has stabilized, and there is no significant excess demand. Other potential demand - growing countries have not shown a large increase in imports. In the 25/26 season, there will be a restorative increase of nearly 7 million tons in sunflower and rapeseed, and the substitution consumption of soybean meal may decline. The natural consumption increase of global soybean meal is only about 3 - 4 million tons, while the average annual increase in global soybeans in the past three years is about 20 million tons, so the oversupply situation will lead to price - for - volume trading [2] - Based on the inventory - to - sales ratio and planting cost, the US soybean futures price is at a relatively low level, which is a resistance to further decline. However, the high global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio always suppresses the price. Compared with soybeans, soybean meal may experience a deeper decline due to weak macro - environment or weak growth in the downstream aquaculture industry. To break out of the downturn, global soybeans need restraint in production and steady growth in demand. Currently, attention is mainly focused on changes in Brazil's planting area and South American weather [3] 2. Short - term Uncertainty of US Soybean Imports and South American Planting Support Current Soybean Meal Valuation - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic port soybean inventory was 9.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased by 1.16 million tons year - on - year and decreased by 20,000 tons compared with the previous period. The feed - enterprise inventory days were 9.22 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.87 days. The high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is in line with the seasonal pattern. Usually, a high inventory should correspond to a relatively low basis and crushing margin, but currently, oil mills can still maintain the break - even point because the crushing margin is supported by the uncertainty of US soybean imports. Brazil's remaining supply can just cover China's soybean purchases before the new South American season, giving Brazil a high bargaining power [5] - In previous years, the market could anticipate the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal by the end of August as early as July, and the crushing margin would be traded at a low level in advance, then recover during the South American planting trading period. This year, due to the expectation of a trade war, the crushing margin has been hovering around the break - even line. In the future, the crushing margin will be affected by the opening of US soybean imports, domestic high - inventory pressure, and South American planting support, increasing the analysis difficulty [6] 3. Soybean Meal Valuation Still Has Room to Decline; If There Are Few Positive Factors, the Market May First Trade on Real - Supply Pressure - For US soybeans, regardless of whether China opens up imports of US soybeans, the US soybean futures price has strong support at the level of 950 - 1000 cents per bushel due to its relatively low valuation. In terms of the basis, during the trade war in September 2018, the US soybean basis fell to around 110 cents per bushel, while the Brazilian basis rose above 350 cents per bushel. After the trade war eased, the US soybean basis rebounded to 150 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian basis fell to 90 cents per bushel. As of now, the soybean negotiation has not made much progress, and the Brazilian near - month basis is at a high level of 293 cents per bushel, resulting in a high premium for near - month contracts. The Brazilian far - month basis is slightly higher than normal. If Sino - US relations ease in the future, it may trigger a reverse - spreading market for soybean meal [10] - The crushing margin mainly follows the domestic real and expected supply. The domestic real - inventory pressure is high, and the expected supply depends on South American planting and whether US soybeans are imported. Currently, there is not much upward momentum for the crushing margin. Therefore, there is still room for the soybean meal valuation to decline. If there are no positive factors from South American planting, the market may first trade on the domestic real - supply pressure, US soybean harvest pressure, and US soybean import expectations. When the crushing margin and the US soybean futures price reach relatively low levels, the market may enter a new range - bound state. The future market will depend on the development of South American planting. If the South American output remains high, the strategy of range - bound trading and selling on rallies should be maintained [10][11]