投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/22 棕榈油 豆油 菜油 农产品指数 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 豆油偏紧，菜 油偏紧有缓和， | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能； ...

国际原油价格出现明显回调，主要是受到了俄乌冲突存在缓解预期的影响。就目前的市场形势看来，基 本面OPEC+再度确认3月不会增产，这意味着目前供给侧宽松的现状不会得到进一步的恶化，但客观情 况下供给趋宽的预期依然存在，因此供给侧依然对油价存在施压；金融属性方面，1月议息会议暂停降 息路径，且特朗普宣布下任主席的人选，该结果引发市场动荡，并押注年内降息超过两次，或小幅缓解 宏观经济压力；政治属性方面，近期俄乌虽然展开谈判，但尚未完全达成停火协议，并且伊朗与美国直 接的国际局势依然存在着升级可能，短期内波动依然较高。上周原油价格为植物油板块提供的利多影响 提振暂时消退，并产生了一定的风险升水回吐，本月如果原油价格依然维持高波动率，油脂板块或仍会 受其影响。 （二）中加关系缓和菜系原料供应格局重塑，但短期利空有限 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行情回顾 1月份，国内油脂板块整体呈现多头趋势，但品种间强弱分化格局明显。1月上旬，市场在前期利空出尽 与另无额外利多的博弈中反复震荡试探。进入中下旬后，随着美国生物燃料政策消息再现利多预期，同 时东南亚棕榈油产区季节性减产阶段下，前期下降不 ...

去年12月下旬以来，豆油期价持续上涨，并创下逾一年来新高。 "美国生物柴油政策预期回升与国际原油价格上涨，共同推动全球油脂价格普涨。"中州期货农产品分析 师吴晓杰表示，美国EPA拟提高2026年生物质柴油配额，并调整豁免比例。此消息推动CBOT豆油价格 走高，并传导至国内。此外，地缘局势紧张推动原油走强，进一步为油脂板块走高提供了支撑。 山东齐盛期货油脂油料分析师刘瑞杰则认为，棕榈油价格走强，导致豆棕价差扩大，从而驱动豆油期价 上涨。 刘瑞杰表示，国内豆油表观需求持续高位，去年四季度以来持续去库，预计库存低点可能出现在3—4月 份。 吴晓杰补充道，受国内春节前备货需求影响，部分油厂提货已排队至下月初，导致商业库存较前月下降 约15%。同时，菜油因进口受限持续去库，豆棕价差倒挂也促使市场需求向豆油倾斜，共同助推豆油价 格走强。 豆油不仅需求端有支撑，供应端也很乐观。徽商期货油脂油料分析师郭文伟告诉记者，预计2025/2026 年度巴西大豆丰产1.76亿~1.81亿吨。国内缺豆担忧或被高估。虽然一季度大豆到港量减少，但国家通 过拍卖储备大豆，成交超200万吨且提货集中在1—4月，所以3—4月市场供需难现明显缺口。 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@g ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, energy products, shipping futures, and oilseeds all rising, while agricultural products showed mixed performance [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening marginally, but the overall steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. - The rise of copper prices is restricted due to the increase in global copper inventories and the suppression of demand by high prices, while precious metals are supported by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. - The bullish sentiment in the domestic crude - oil sector is high, driven by external markets. The short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation, and the global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026 [1]. - Oilseeds rose due to strong export sales data and positive market sentiment. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Market - On January 26th, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 12.78%, energy products all rose (fuel oil up 6.81%), shipping futures all rose (Containerized Freight Index (Europe Line) up 5.46%), oilseeds all rose (rapeseed oil up 4.08%), most chemical products rose (butadiene rubber up 3.59%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass up 2.45%), most base metals rose (Shanghai tin up 1.37%), black series showed mixed performance (coking coal up 1.35%), most new energy materials rose (polysilicon up 1.19%), and agricultural products led the decline (pigs down 0.99%) [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Different Commodity Sectors 3.2.1 Black Series - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, suppressing iron ore. With high inventories, iron ore futures fluctuated lower. In the future, although the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, the steel fundamentals are healthy, and the downside space for iron ore prices is limited [1]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and closed slightly higher. The rise was driven by precious metals, but the increase in global copper inventories and high - price suppression of demand limited the rise. Precious metals such as Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver hit new highs due to geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemical Products - Driven by external markets, the domestic crude - oil sector was bullish. Short - term drivers include cold snap and Middle East situation. The global crude - oil supply is expected to be in surplus in 2026, but the surplus pressure in the first quarter is reduced due to OPEC+ suspending production increase [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds - Driven by strong export sales data, US soybeans continued to rise slightly, and domestic soybeans also rose. With the approaching Spring Festival, soybean meal prices stopped falling and rose. The supply of rapeseed oil is currently tight, but there are uncertainties in the future due to trade relations [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：潜在利多尚存，油脂偏多对待 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏多 | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能；（3）3月1日前加拿大菜籽将适用15%税率，较此前进口成本大幅下降，或带来油厂 | | | | 的采买节奏，澳籽后续也有进商业压榨预期。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）印度和国内备货节奏对油脂需求有明显提振，但需考虑品种间的替代；（2）印尼声称推迟B50的消息对棕榈油远月价格有情绪上的利空，但未必 真的今年不落地；（3）美国生柴整体配额预计维持此前草案的水平或更低，但取消了对进口投料的惩罚，更利好加拿大菜系产品需求，等待3月初政策 | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行情回顾 上周油脂板块整体偏强震荡但品种间强弱分化明显，棕榈油处于领涨格局，豆油偏强，菜籽油相对偏 弱，整体在区间内运行。油脂板块整体的反弹格局来自于美国生物燃料政策预期乐观的提振。叠加马来 西亚1月上半月产量环比下降，出口环比增长的高频产需数据的边际收紧。但中加贸易关系缓和带来远 期进口增加预期，压制价格，不过现货去库、基差坚挺使得菜油下方形成支撑。截至1月23日当月，豆 油主力合约周涨幅在0.97%左右；棕榈油主力合约周线涨幅2.72%；菜籽油主力合约周线环比小幅收 跌，幅度在0.79%。 二、国际市场重点事件及外围因素影响分析 （一）美生柴政策再现利多预期，成为板块内核心支撑 根据2026年1月中下旬最新消息，美国预计将在3月初敲定2026年生物燃料混合配额，可能将把生物燃料 混合配额大致保持在当前提案的水平，同时美政府正权衡生物基柴油的配额范围在52亿至56亿加仑之 间，而当前提案为56.1亿加仑。即使生物柴油目标从56.1亿加仑微调至52-56亿加仑区间，较2025年33.5 亿加仑的增长幅度仍在55%以上，总体方向维持高增长目标。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is strengthening, and domestic soybean meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected high - yield in South America. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on rapeseed meal prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a strong and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil was weak. Strong exports and reduced production in Malaysia, along with lower tariffs, support palm oil prices. Favorable demand for US soybean oil due to biofuel policy expectations also provides support. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement weakens rapeseed oil prices and restricts short - term soybean and palm oil prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2327, and 8844 respectively, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [1]. International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (Ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bushel), 52.51 (cents/pound), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8530 and 8580 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8700, with no change. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9780 and 9830 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.71% and - 1.70% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 534, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, US West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseed are - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with some varieties showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - **Palm Oil**: It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 Ringgit per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 1,975 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%, while Indonesia's production is expected to reach a record 5,120 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3]. - **Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. In the third week of January 2026, Brazil shipped a total of 130.74 tons of soybeans, with an average daily shipment of 11.89 tons, a 144.56% increase compared to January last year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: The supply outlook is neutral to bearish. Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but high inventory and a lower export reference price have increased palm oil exports. The full - scale auction of imported soybeans on January 13th, with expected delivery in March, has alleviated the short - term soybean shortage. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed will drop significantly before March 1st, and Australian rapeseed is also expected to enter commercial crushing [3]. - Demand: The demand outlook is neutral. Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has not yet picked up, and the news of Indonesia delaying B50 is bearish for palm oil's far - month prices. The overall US biodiesel quota is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, with a more favorable impact on Canadian rapeseed products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory is under observation, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a record high since 2019 in December at 3.05 million tons, but the overall situation is not as pessimistic as previously estimated. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy outlook is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn could trigger a rebound in oil prices. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for early March, and Indonesia's B50 may be postponed [3]. - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for palm oil, go long on soybean oil, and short rapeseed oil on rallies. Palm oil may reach its low point in the first quarter, soybean oil has a strong short - term fundamental outlook, and rapeseed oil is expected to be bearish before the US biodiesel policy is finalized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Multiple factors contribute to an increase in international palm oil supply, and the short - term shortage of soybeans is alleviated. The reduction in Canadian rapeseed import costs may change the purchasing rhythm of oil mills [3]. - Demand: Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has limited impact on oil digestion, and the B50 delay and US biodiesel policy have different impacts on various oil products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory varies between Malaysia and Indonesia, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a de - stocking trend [3]. - Macro and Policy: Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are important factors affecting oil prices [3]. - Investment View: Different investment strategies are proposed for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil based on their respective fundamentals [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading involves going long on soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil, while arbitrage strategies include going long on Y and short on OI, P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads and differences, including P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 spreads [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Forecasts of precipitation and temperature anomalies in Southeast Asia over different time periods are provided [19][21][23]. - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [31][35][36]. - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Similar data on Malaysia's palm oil are shown [37][42]. - India's Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread: Information on India's imports of different oils and the international bean - palm spread is provided [43][48]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit are presented [49][51][53]. - Weather and Soybean Production: Forecasts of temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the progress of soybean planting and harvesting, are provided [60][63][69]. - US and Brazilian Export Situation: Data on the export volumes of the US and Brazil are presented [74][79]. - China's Soybean and Oil - Related Data: Information on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [90]. - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Data on the export of rapeseed from different origins, import profit, and domestic arrival volume are presented [91][93]. - China's Rapeseed - Related Data: Information on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月18日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约上涨，主要在于库存下滑及美国生柴政 策预期向好。加拿大总理访华，市场预期中加贸易关系或有缓和迹 象，印尼维持B4 ...