Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview Coatings and Waterproofing Materials - There are opportunities for price increases in the coatings and waterproofing materials sectors, with coatings showing signs of growth in 2025 and waterproofing expected to follow in 2026. Key companies to focus on include Yuhong, Keshun, and Sankeshu [1][2] Pipe Manufacturing - Companies targeting the C-end market are performing steadily with good cash flow and dividends, making them suitable for conservative investors. Recommended companies include Tubao and Weixing [1][2] Glass Fiber Sector - The demand outlook for the glass fiber sector is positive, with significant price increases in ordinary electronic cloth since the beginning of the year. China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology have considerable growth potential in the high-end electronic cloth market [1][2] Construction Sector - Large companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Tunnel Co. and China State Construction, are worth attention. A recovery in traditional construction demand will benefit upstream material suppliers like Honglu Steel Structure and Jinggong Steel Structure [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently at a high PB valuation, around the 75th percentile over the last 20 years, but still has upward potential based on PE valuation at approximately the 35th percentile. Gold stocks are valued at 12-13 times earnings, with a potential increase of 50%-70% during a bull market. Energy metals like copper and aluminum also show around 40% upside potential. The gold sector has risen 30% since the beginning of the year and is in the middle of a quarterly uptrend [3][4] Coal Industry Current Fundamentals - The coking coal sector shows strong fundamentals, with a recent increase in the coal index by 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Supply-side data is low, with significant inventory reductions. As of January 23, coal inventory was 168 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year, with coking coal inventory down 12% [5][6] Future Expectations - The coal sector is expected to see significant price increases following policy changes that will affect inventory and production levels. High-quality coking coal companies and high-dividend thermal coal companies are recommended for investment [6] Real Estate Sector Market Trends - The real estate sector is nearing the end of its bottoming phase, with recommendations to accumulate stocks that have improved fundamentals but have not yet realized performance. Jianfa Co. is highlighted, with expected losses of 5.2 to 10 billion yuan in 2025 but a commitment to maintain dividends of at least 0.7 yuan per share [7][8] Company Performance - Jianfa Co. has a stable supply chain business with significant growth in overseas operations, achieving sales of 14 billion USD, a 37% year-on-year increase. Major losses are attributed to its home furnishing business and real estate operations [9][10] Future Performance Expectations - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for Jianfa Co., with a projected rebound in 2026, estimating profits between 3 to 3.5 billion yuan. The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend strategy, supported by strong cash flow [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows weak supply and demand. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is significant, while the decline in hot - rolled coil demand is relatively small. The recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan. Consider closing long positions on the steel - to - ore ratio when it rises, and continue to hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The support factors for iron ore are reversing, with iron - making resumption falling short of expectations, potential changes in negotiation deadlocks, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. The price is under overall pressure, and it is advisable to short at around 800 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is currently stable. After the fourth - round price cut, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and limiting production to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises are initiating a price increase, which is expected to be realized. The market is expected to be looser after the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures market has over - anticipated the price increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [7]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, lacking upward drivers at the industrial level. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly within the range of 5300 - 5800 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. Ferromanganese Industry - Ferromanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 3286 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons to 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.9 tons to 308.4 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The rebar inventory remained unchanged at 438.1 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 362.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, a decrease of 2.2%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, an increase of 3.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.4 tons to 190.3 tons, an increase of 8.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 5.8 tons to 314.2 tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 5.5 yuan/ton to 850.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.5, a decrease of 2.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 7.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.3 tons to 6072.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.10 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, an increase of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 days to 21.0 days, an increase of 10.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%. The coking profit decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1129 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 920.2 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.3 tons to 81.8 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6 tons to 650.3 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors increased to varying degrees [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in most regions remained unchanged, with the 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia at 5250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in some regions also remained unchanged, with the FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia at 5680 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 5556.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%, and the ferromanganese主力合约收盘价 increased by 26.0 yuan/ton to 5786.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The manganese ore prices of some varieties decreased slightly [8]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.2%, a decrease of 1.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output remained unchanged at 19.1 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%, a decrease of 2.0% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese demand remained unchanged. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 tons to 6.4 tons, a decrease of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.0 tons to 37.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, domestic demand is weak, and prices have fully factored in the weak demand. The decline in production and the accumulation of raw materials have led to a weakening of raw material prices, and the recent cost reduction may cause the steel price center to shift downwards. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar price spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is constrained by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resumption of iron - making production, macro - level narratives, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations need to be monitored. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate widely, with a recommended trading range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, after the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and are considering production cuts to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a price increase, which is expected to be implemented. The futures price of coke has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the decline of coking coal. It is recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - For coking coal, although there is a demand for spot restocking before the Spring Festival, the futures price has already factored in the increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose. It is also recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is a lack of upward momentum at the industrial level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level and policy - related narratives. - Ferromanganese: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses the price in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined, except for the 01 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production varied, and the profits of most regions showed an upward trend [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, a rise of 0.1%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Trading and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume decreased by 1.0 to 8.5, a decline of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, a rise of 3.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot, warehouse - receipt costs, and price indices mostly declined. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also decreased [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decline of 8.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decline of 7.9%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, a rise of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.1 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, a rise of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2 days to 21 days, a rise of 10.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a slight upward trend, while the basis of some contracts decreased. The coking profit decreased, while the coal - mine profit increased [5]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The production of raw coal and clean coal in sample coal mines also decreased slightly [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed mixed trends [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with all links in the supply chain accumulating inventory [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese declined slightly, and the spot prices of most regions also decreased [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different trends, and the production profits generally decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of ferromanganese remained stable. The production start - up rates of both decreased [6]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the iron - making production and blast - furnace start - up rate also decreased [6]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the average available days of inventory also decreased [6].

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group reported record iron ore production for the first half of the fiscal year ending December 31, with a total output of 146.6 million tons, a 1% increase year-over-year [1][2]. Production Performance - In the December quarter, iron ore production reached 76.3 million tons, up from 70.2 million tons in the September quarter [3][7]. - The company maintained its full-year iron ore production forecast at 284 million to 296 million tons, indicating a strong start to the typically rainy third quarter [3][7]. - BHP raised the lower end of its copper production forecast to between 1.9 million and 2 million tons, slightly above the previous estimate of 1.8 million to 2 million tons, due to strong operational performance from its copper assets [3][7]. Project Cost Updates - BHP announced a 20% increase in the estimated total investment for its Jansen potash project in Canada, raising the range from $7 billion to $7.4 billion to $8.4 billion [2][4]. - The cost increase reflects previously unaccounted construction hours and material usage, with the initial investment cost approved in August 2021 being $5.7 billion [4][8]. Upcoming Financial Reporting - BHP is scheduled to release its half-year financial report on February 17 [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand are both weak, with controllable real - inventory pressure and limited industrial contradictions. Prices follow raw material fluctuations, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal复产 on the downside. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, some coke enterprises resist further cuts and initiate price increases, which are expected to be implemented. It is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Driven by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - Short - term ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions are limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers at the industrial level. After a pullback, one can try to go long on the dips, with a bottom support reference of around 5500 [7]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses prices in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a local support reference of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between the May contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened to 161 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production have different changes, and the profits of different regions and varieties also vary [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 0.7%, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly by 0.1%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 0.6%. The inventory of rebar remains unchanged, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 1.6% [1]. Demand - The demand has decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of rebar demand. The apparent demand for rebar remains low, while that for hot - rolled coils has recovered month - on - month, better than the seasonal average in previous years [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and 05 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties have slightly decreased. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread have changed to different extents [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 5.9%, the global shipment volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly import volume has increased by 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6%, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output have decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 1.7%, the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills have increased by 10.5% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices have decreased to different extents. The basis and spreads of different contracts have also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of different entities has different trends [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has increased by 188.0% [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased. The spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions have slightly changed, and the production profits have decreased. The prices of manganese ore raw materials remain stable [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly, and the production enterprises' operating rate has decreased by 1.4% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased by 7.5%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have decreased [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased, and the spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicomanganese in different regions remain stable, and the manganese ore prices are strong [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese remains unchanged, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicomanganese has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises has decreased by 2.5%, and the average available days of silicomanganese inventory have decreased [7].

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel exports are expected to remain high due to low valuations and some export - grabbing factors. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic market is weak, and prices have fully priced in weak demand. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with high inventory suppressing the upside and steel mill restocking expectations and molten iron production recovery providing support. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the trading strategy is range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures market has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the coking coal price drop. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to protect prices. The recommended strategy is to go long on the dips and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand drives the market. The strategy is also to go long on the dips and consider the same arbitrage [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and production has reached a historically low level. Demand has some support, and costs also provide support. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5500. For ferromanganese, the supply is at a historically neutral - low level, and demand has support. Manganese ore prices support the ferromanganese price. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, while hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 49 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of steelmaking in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase [1]. Demand - The total apparent demand of steel has recovered. The export of steel remains high [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 164.0 to 2920.4, a 5.9% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 32.8 to 3213.7, a 1.0% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices changed slightly. For example, the coke 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 6 yuan [6]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly, and coking coal production showed a small - scale recovery [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal increased [6]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices were relatively stable. The prices of some spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions increased slightly, and the production profit decreased [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production was basically flat, and ferromanganese production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steelmaking industry had some support due to the recovery of molten iron production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday, the steel futures market weakened with market sentiment, while the spot market remained stable. The industry showed little change, with a significant seasonal decline in apparent demand, mainly in rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season accumulation phase. Rebar's inventory pressure will increase in the future, while hot - rolled coil's inventory is decreasing. Before the Spring Festival, real - world demand is weak, but prices have already factored in the weak demand. The price of steel is pushed up by the strengthening of raw material prices recently, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in January. The reference range for rebar May contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures market was in high - level oscillation yesterday with a slight increase in positions. The spot market was relatively strong, but downstream steel mills still purchased on demand. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume declined this period, and the shipment center will gradually decline after the end of the peak shipment season. The impact of weather on shipments is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the influence of steel mill maintenance on SMM increased slightly, and there is still room for the resumption of hot - metal production. The average hot - metal production in January is expected to be around 2.3 million tons. The export orders of finished products increased significantly, and demand is still supported. The port inventory increased significantly. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal production resumption below. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, both coke and coking coal futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. In the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on January 1st, and the port price rebounded with the futures. The coke market is currently weakly stable. On the supply side, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, but the start - up rate is increasing. On the demand side, the steel mill's losses and maintenance decreased, the hot - metal production increased steadily, and the steel price rebounded at a low level. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants is still the main tone. The trading strategy is to go long on dips unilaterally and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures contract was in oscillation with a slight decline, and the 03 contract continued to reduce positions. The spot price fluctuated within a limited range, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. In terms of fundamentals, the ferrosilicon production was basically flat, reaching a historically low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is still some support for demand. The factory inventory decreased, and the cost was supported by the strong price of manganese ore. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5500. The ferromanganese futures contract was also in oscillation, with supply at a historically neutral - low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is support for demand. The manganese ore price is expected to be supported by factors such as port inventory and shipping issues. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3210, and 3280 respectively, with changes of - 10, 10, and - 10 compared to the previous day. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar were 3158, 3202, and 3134 respectively, with changes of 14, 6, and 45. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 10. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil were 3303, 3321, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 9, 3, and 25 [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2970 with no change, and the slab price was 3730 with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3232, up 16; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3223, up 2. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 27, up 13; the profit of North China rebar was - 107, up 3; the profit of South China rebar was 193, up 3 [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal production was 229.0, up 1.6 (0.7%) from the previous day. The production of five major steel products was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%); rebar production was 191.0, up 2.8 (1.5%); hot - rolled coil production was 305.5, up 1.0 (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1253.9, up 21.8 (1.8%); rebar inventory was 438.1, up 16.1 (3.8%); hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.1, down 2.8 (- 0.8%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 8.4, down 2.2 (- 20.9%); the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 796.8, down 44.2 (- 5.3%); the apparent consumption of rebar was 175.0, down 25.5 (- 12.7%); the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 308.3, down 2.4 (- 0.8%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 878.4, 885.3, 884.1, and 922.0 respectively, with changes of - 13.1 (- 1.5%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), and - 2.2 (- 0.2%) compared to the previous day. The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 58.9, 0.8, 62.5, and 102.5 respectively, with changes of - 10.1 (- 14.6%), 65.0 (1.2%), 0.8 (1.4%), and 0.8 (0.8%). The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5, up 1.0 (4.9%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 74.7, down 31.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2920.4, up 164.0 (5.9%); the global shipment volume (weekly) was 3213.7, down 32.8 (- 1.0%); the national monthly import volume was 11054.0, down 76.9 (- 0.7%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 227.4, up 2.1 (0.9%); the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) was 325.2, down 1.9 (- 0.6%); the national monthly pig - iron production was 6234.3, down 320.6 (- 4.9%); the national monthly crude - steel production was 6987.1, down 212.6 (- 3.0%) [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) was 16275.26, up 304.4 (1.9%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8989.6, up 43.0 (0.5%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 19.0, down 1.0 (- 5.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 2224, up 13; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 1745, up 22. The coke 05, 09 contracts were 1745, 1824 respectively, with changes of - 25 (- 1.4%) and - 20 (- 1.1%). The 05 - 09 spread was - 79, down 5 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1260 with no change; the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1259, up 24 (1.9%). The coking coal 05, 09 contracts were 1191, 1268 respectively, with changes of - 47 (- 3.8%) and - 43 (- 3.2%). The JM05 - JM09 spread was - 77, down 5 [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants (weekly) was 62.7, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%); the raw - coal production was 853.4, down 2.7 (- 0.3%); the clean - coal production was 438.2, down 0.6 (- 0.1%) [6]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 63.6, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%) [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory was 915.7, up 0.2 (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 86.1, down 5.5 (- 6.0%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 645.7, up 1.7 (0.3%); the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1071.7, up 12.0 (1.2%); the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 797.7, down 4.5 (- 0.6%); the port inventory was 299.8, down 1.5 (- 0.5%) [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5682.0, down 16.0 (- 0.3%); the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract was 5916.0, down 14.0 (- 0.2%). The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu were 5350.0, 5300.0, 5320.0, and 5300.0 respectively, with no changes. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Ningxia, and Guizhou were 5750.0, 5850.0, 5650.0, and 5800.0 respectively, with increases of 50.0 (0.9%), 50.0 (0.9%), 0.0 (0.0%), and 50.0 (0.9%) [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5882.9, up 38.1 (0.7%); the production cost in Guangxi was 6236.3 with no change; the production cost in Qinghai was 5831.0 with no change; the production cost in Ningxia was 5433.0 with no change. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 132.9, up 11.9; the production profit in Ningxia was - 113.0 with no change [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon was 0.0, up 0.2 (0.2%); the weekly production of ferromanganese was 19.1, down 0.3 (- 1.4%). The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) was 29.6, up 0.1 (0.3%); the operating rate of ferromanganese was 36.8, down 0.1 (- 0.2%) [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon (estimated by Steel Union) was 1.9, up 0.0 (0.1%); the weekly demand for ferromanganese (estimated by Steel Union) was 11.6, up 0.1 (0.7%). The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the blast - furnace operating rate (weekly) was 79.3, up 0.4 (0.5%); the production of five major steel products (weekly) was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%) [7]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises (weekly) was 6.9, up 0.5 (7.1%); the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises (weekly) was 38.3, down 1.1 (- 2.8%). The average available days of ferrosilicon for downstream users (monthly) was 15.4, down 0.4 (- 2.5%); the average available days of ferromanganese inventory (monthly) was 16, up 0.1 (0.9%) [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The current demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the expected demand for steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. With significant steel production cuts, the downward driving force is not strong, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upward price space. The upward elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore has shifted to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is suppressed by high inventories, and there is support from the expected restocking of steel mills below. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse is basically over. Future focus should be on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the hot - metal production continued to resume, and the resumption speed accelerated. The iron ore inventory in ports increased significantly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a situation of loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. During the off - season, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coking coal, last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward. The spot prices of Shanxi increased more than decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotes rebounded following the futures. The supply side has entered the resumption stage, with improved shipments but still inventory accumulation. The demand side has seen a decrease in steel mill losses and an increase in hot - metal production, and the restocking demand has improved. For coke, last week, the coke futures also fluctuated upward. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market is currently weakly stable. The supply side has a lag in coke price adjustment compared to coking coal, with pressured coking profits and increased production starts. The demand side has seen an increase in hot - metal production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory has slightly increased. For both, the one - sided strategy suggests going long on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and there is support from the cost side. The supply is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the production in Inner Mongolia is stable with new capacity put into operation at the end of last year, so there is still room for short - term production growth. The demand for steelmaking has support, and the demand for ferrosilicon from the metal magnesium industry is also strong. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200 yuan, and short - term attention should be paid to macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - oversupply but overall balance of manganese elements. The manganese ore provides support for the price, and there is also support from off - season demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the strategy suggests range - bound operations with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and contract prices all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3332 yuan to 3294 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East and North China decreased, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The production of rebar increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with the electric - arc furnace production increasing by 6.6% and the converter production increasing by 0.5%. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.0 to 305.5, a 0.3% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.4 to 308.3, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the 05 - contract basis of some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts decreased slightly. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal - mine profit decreased by 26, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased slightly. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased from - 0.6 to - 0.7, a 15.1% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased. The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, and the ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in some regions changed slightly, and the manganese - ore supply indicators such as shipment volume, arrival volume, and removal volume increased [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steel - making industry has support. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [7]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].