1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. - For urea, suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. - For polyethylene, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. - For PTA, expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 9.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.19% decline, at 761.20 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 19.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% decline, at 4771.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 5.00 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase, at 5641.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 8.00 yuan/ton, at 2847 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 216 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Hebei it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 8 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 22 yuan/ton, at 1878 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market changes rapidly. Bulls expect price increases due to macro expectations, seasonal factors, and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 tons, a 1.21% increase [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 52 yuan, at 5901 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5730 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 171 (- 92) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 (+ 16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, up 0.2%. The downstream operating rate was 39.3%, up 3.5%. Factory inventory was 37.7 tons (- 8.1), and social inventory was 140.7 tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end East China pure benzene price was 8390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 8443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 53 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase. The styrene spot price was 10150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The styrene active contract closing price was 10204 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan strengthening. The BZN spread was 47.5 yuan/ton, a 27.25 - yuan increase. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 58.1 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.65 tons, a 0.91 - ton de - stocking. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8496 yuan/ton, a 181 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8375 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 121 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 tons, a 3.92 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.77 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 294 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8671 yuan/ton, a 186 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, a 311 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 tons, a 2.49 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 20.61 tons, a 0.655 - ton de - stocking. The port inventory was 7.47 tons, a 0.67 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 175 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 492 yuan/ton, a 59 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract decreased by 162 yuan, at 10018 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was 278 yuan (- 126). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease. The Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 tons, a 1.8 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 tons, a 1 - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 16), the South Korean PX - MX was 81 dollars (+ 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 312 dollars (+ 14) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 64 yuan, at 6918 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan (- 44). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 tons, a 2.6 - ton increase. The disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan, to 346 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 71 yuan, at 4826 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (- 15). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The import arrival forecast was 15 tons, and the East China departure on March 16 was 1.06 tons. The port inventory was 101.1 tons, a 5.7 - ton de - stocking. The naphtha - based profit was - 2820 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1854 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1200 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price fell to 550 yuan [32][33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a strategic short - position configuration, do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profit at high prices [4] - For urea, short it on rallies as the domestic contradiction is not prominent in the context of high supply and demand, and the export quota has little cost - effectiveness. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] - For polypropylene, the short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 73.10 yuan/barrel, or 11.26%, to 722.30 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 392.00 yuan/ton, or 9.20%, to 4653.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 730.00 yuan/ton, or 14.83%, to 5653.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy**: Start a strategic short - position configuration; do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 120.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2726 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 98 yuan [4] - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices as it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 15 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 3 yuan/ton, reported at 1875 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy**: Short it on rallies. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The market was affected by refinery shutdowns and policy expectations, leading to a rebound in related products. The overall market changed rapidly. Bulls and bears had different views. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.52%. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons. Spot prices of some products had changes [9][10][11] - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 49 yuan to 5620 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5650 (+380) yuan/ton, the basis was 30 (+331) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 13 (+16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 81.1%, a 1% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, an 18.7% increase. Factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14] - **Strategy**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene rose 650 yuan/ton to 8635 yuan/ton. The active contract of pure benzene closed at 8297 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene expanded by 400 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton. The active contract of styrene closed at 9926 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene weakened by 6 yuan/ton. The BZN spread decreased by 38.75 yuan/ton. The non - integrated device profit of EB decreased by 355.5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.91 million tons to 16.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [18] - **Strategy**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8236 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton. The basis was 339 yuan/ton, strengthening by 668 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 million tons, accumulating 3.92 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.00 million tons, de - stocking 0.77 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 302 yuan/ton, narrowing by 46 yuan/ton [21] - **Strategy**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8303 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8650 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton. The basis was 347 yuan/ton, strengthening by 444 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, accumulating 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, de - stocking 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, de - stocking 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 67 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 552 yuan/ton, expanding by 1 yuan/ton [23] - **Strategy**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 686 yuan to 10218 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 88 US dollars to 1305 US dollars. The basis was 154 yuan (+19), and the 5 - 7 spread was 546 yuan (+134). The Chinese load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 342 US dollars (+32), the South Korean PX - MX was 80 US dollars (- 32), and the naphtha crack spread was 189 US dollars (+17) [26] - **Strategy**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 338 yuan to 6998 yuan. The East China spot price rose 710 yuan to 7030 yuan. The basis was - 22 yuan (- 8), and the 5 - 9 spread was 392 yuan (+26). The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, accumulating 2.6 million tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 247 yuan to 226 yuan, and the on - disk processing fee fell 112 yuan to 295 yuan [28] - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 76 yuan to 4653 yuan. The East China spot price rose 315 yuan to 4715 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 117 yuan (- 26). The supply - side load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load reduction. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 11 was 1.2 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, accumulating 6.6 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2155 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1216 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 970 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [31] - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout is recommended. Specific strategies include a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully priced in the current geopolitical premium, and with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, there is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle. The oil - chemical profit has fallen to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 70.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9.61%, at 662.00 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.87%, at 4318.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.33%, at 5050.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a mid - term layout strategy, including a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 80 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 110 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 25 yuan/ton. The main contract of methanol futures changed by 59.00 yuan/ton, at 2658 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 50 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Since methanol has fully priced in the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong and Hubei changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 12 yuan/ton. The main contract of urea futures changed by 16 yuan/ton, at 1872 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a sharp drop in crude oil, which in turn drove down the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views. The long side of natural rubber (RU) is optimistic due to factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal expectations, and improved demand in China. The short side is pessimistic due to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of March 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 342 yuan, at 5571 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5270 (+120) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (-222) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 29 (+60) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (+50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 970 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 82.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 18.7%. The in - plant inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 7755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1905 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 196.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 327.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 208.8 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and second consecutive contracts of EB was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 8154 yuan/ton, an increase of 387 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The basis was - 329 yuan/ton, a weakening of 212 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 348 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 8197 yuan/ton, an increase of 377 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a weakening of 177 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 630 yuan, at 9532 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 66 US dollars, at 1217 US dollars. The basis was 135 yuan (-114), and the 5 - 7 spread was 412 yuan (+88). The domestic PX load was 90.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the Asian load was 83.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. A 2.5 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and the Daxie plant was shut down. Overseas, a 770,000 - ton PX plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 157,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The PXN was 310 US dollars (-45), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (+18), and the naphtha cracking spread was 172 US dollars (-162) [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 460 yuan, at 6660 yuan. The East China spot price rose 140 yuan, at 6320 yuan. The basis was - 14 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan (+66). The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 2.623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 198 yuan, to - 22 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 47 yuan, to 407 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 272 yuan, at 4577 yuan. The East China spot price fell 8 yuan, at 4400 yuan. The basis was - 23 yuan (-25), and the 5 - 9 spread was 143 yuan (+137). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; among them, the syngas - based load was 83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene - based load was 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. Many domestic and overseas plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The import arrival forecast was 78,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on March 10 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1940 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1212 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 661 yuan. The

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. - For urea, due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. - For rubber, treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. - For polypropylene, the short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 80.30 yuan/barrel, a 10.76% decline, at 666.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 51.00 yuan/ton, a 1.15% decline, to 4386.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil fell 91.00 yuan/ton, an 1.82% decline, to 4908.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategic Views**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu changed by - 285 yuan/ton, Shandong (Lunan) by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 130 yuan/ton, Hebei by 195 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 120 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 209.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2549 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 629 yuan [4]. - **Strategic Views**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei changed by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei and Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at 4 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 49 yuan/ton, closing at 1856 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategic Views**: Due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a rise in crude oil, driving up the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The price of BR rose much more than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of RU and NR. The overall market changed rapidly, and there were different views on the market trend. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, up 34.11 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.35 percentage points year - on - year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, up 35.17 percentage points from the previous week and down 8.89 percentage points year - on - year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [11][12]. - **Strategic Views**: Treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609. Trade in the short - term according to the market and set stop - losses [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 237 yuan, closing at 5229 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4980 (- 780) yuan/ton, the basis was - 249 (- 483) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (+ 22) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 (+ 125) yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous period. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+ 5.1) [15]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7685 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The closing price of the active contract was 8007 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The basis of pure benzene was - 322 yuan/ton, a 1592 - yuan/ton reduction. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active contract was 9915 yuan/ton, a 328 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2085 yuan/ton, a 2672 - yuan/ton strengthening. The BZN spread was 186 yuan/ton, a 5.62 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB units was 750.85 yuan/ton, a 535.6 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [19]. - **Strategic Views**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7767 yuan/ton, a 177 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7650 yuan/ton, a 1750 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 117 yuan/ton, a 1573 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a 135 - yuan/ton expansion [22]. - **Strategic Views**: With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7820 yuan/ton, a 214 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, a 1450 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, a 1236 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 37 - yuan/ton expansion. The PP5 - 9 spread was 495 yuan/ton, a 146 - yuan/ton expansion [25]. - **Strategic Views**: The short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 126 yuan, closing at 8902 yuan. The PX CFR fell 195 US dollars, to 1151 US dollars. The basis was 249 yuan (- 1452), and the 5 - 7 spread was 324 yuan (+ 20). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas units were under maintenance or reduced production. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 303 US dollars (+ 20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (- 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (- 54) [28]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 116 yuan, closing at 6200 yuan. The East China spot price fell 1020 yuan, to 6180 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 300 yuan (+ 54). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. Some units were under maintenance or resumed production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 15 yuan, to 176 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 34 yuan, to 360 yuan [31]. - **Strategic Views**: It is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 292 yuan, closing at 4305 yuan. The East China spot price fell 405 yuan, to 4408 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 100). The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, with some domestic and overseas units under maintenance or reduced production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure was 1 million tons on March 9. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1673 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 724 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 950 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [33]. - **Strategic Views**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, in the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 112.10 yuan/barrel, a 16.99% increase, at 771.80 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 660.00 yuan/ton, a 16.98% increase, to 4548.00 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 656.00 yuan/ton, a 14.99% increase, to 5032.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 340 yuan/ton, 345 yuan/ton, 265 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 185 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 303.00 yuan/ton, at 2830 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 495 yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: It already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by - 20 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 75 yuan/ton, at 1905 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The sharp rise in crude oil due to the macro - situation drove up the price of downstream butadiene, and the price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased significantly. The increase in BR was much greater than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of rubber RU and NR. The market is changing rapidly, driven by macro factors and funds. The future trend of rubber is uncertain. Bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China, while bears think the macro - situation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The overall factory has resumed production, but the export orders in the geopolitically affected areas have slowed down. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday. The spot prices of Thai standard mixed rubber, STR20, and STR20 mixed increased, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China also increased [11][12][13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 190 yuan, at 5466 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5700 (+680) yuan/ton, the basis was 234 (+490) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (-25) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 870 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (+21) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, including 80.7% for the calcium carbide method and 82.2% for the ethylene method, both with a 1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous month. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8155 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The pure benzene basis was 1845 yuan/ton, a 1716 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 9587 yuan/ton, a 678 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2413 yuan/ton, a 2322 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 191.62 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan/ton increase. The non - integrated device profit of EB was 661 yuan/ton, an 888.25 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase, the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7944 yuan/ton, a 253 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, a 1925 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1456 yuan/ton, a 1672 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan/ton decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8034 yuan/ton, a 237 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a 1600 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1316 yuan/ton, a 1363 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 90 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 349 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan/ton decrease [25]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 358 yuan, at 9028 yuan. The PX CFR rose 267 US dollars, at 1346 US dollars. The basis was 1701 yuan (+1787), and the 5 - 7 spread was 304 yuan (+52). The PX load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance, Daxie stopped production, South Korea's S - oil 770,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and GS's 550,000 - ton device reduced its load. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea exported 41.5 million tons of PX to China, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 301 US dollars (+20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (-11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (-54) [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 246 yuan, at 6316 yuan. The East China spot price rose 1335 yuan, at 7200 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (+22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 246 yuan (+46). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 72 yuan to 162 yuan, and the on - market processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 394 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 220 yuan, at 4597 yuan. The East China spot price rose 546 yuan, at 4813 yuan. The basis was 37 yuan (+48), and the 5 - 9 spread was 106 yuan (+46). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, including 83% for the syngas - to - ethylene - glycol method, a 1% decrease, and 67.9% for the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol method, an 8.3% decrease. Many domestic and foreign devices were under maintenance or reduced their loads. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure volume on March 8 was 1.38 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 1794 yuan, the domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 918 yuan, and the coal - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 850 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 580 yuan [34]. - **Strategy**: The foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Polyolefin Industry**: The intraday disk and spot prices fluctuated greatly, and trading weakened. The upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, strongly boosting the market from the cost side. The supply side showed differentiation, with high domestic PE supply and increased losses in oil - based and naphtha - based routes; PP production was slow due to planned maintenance in March and rising raw material prices. The demand side was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream factory operating rates at a seasonal low. Although the current industry profit is in a historically low range and the real - world fundamentals are under pressure, the market has strong expectations for post - holiday restocking demand from downstream concentrated resumption of work. [1] - **Methanol Industry**: Methanol futures fluctuated widely, and spot and near - month contracts were purchased on - demand. The overall trading for the day was okay. The escalation of the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz limited Iranian methanol exports, triggering market concerns about a global supply interruption and a significant increase in geopolitical risk premiums. Fundamentally, domestic operating rates remained high, but the import side was affected by the geopolitical conflict, with increased instability of facilities and a significant decline in March arrivals. The demand side was weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and a delay in the start - up of new MTO plants. Port inventories were at a historically medium - high level, but there were expectations of destocking due to the expected reduction in imports. [3] - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight, the WTI April contract closed at $81.01 per barrel, up 8.51%, and the Brent May contract closed at $84.48 per barrel, up 3.78%. The sharp increase in freight rates made the delivery cost of SC futures more than $15 above Brent, and the domestic premium continued to rise. If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices will continue to rise significantly; if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage, oil prices will face the risk of a large - scale return of geopolitical and freight insurance premiums. Historically, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices is mostly short - lived. After four consecutive days of sharp increases, long positions should be held with caution. [5] - **Urea Industry**: On the 5th, urea futures declined after reaching a high, and spot prices remained weak. The supply side had a slight increase in the operating rate this week, with daily production exceeding 220,000 tons, resulting in short - term supply pressure. The demand side had stable demand for agricultural green - turning fertilizers, and the demand for industrial compound fertilizers and board factories was gradually recovering. Affected by the domestic urea guidance price limit and the lack of new export news, the market was mostly on the sidelines regarding high prices, and downstream factories mostly purchased on - demand. In the short term, urea prices are expected to continue to trade in a high - level consolidation range. [8] - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: On the 5th, caustic soda futures hit the daily limit, and spot prices remained stable overall. High - concentration caustic soda exports showed a good trend, and the production of 50% caustic soda in the province had not fully recovered, so high - concentration caustic soda may have a certain upward trend in the short term. The supply side had a slow recovery of caustic soda plant loads, and there was still pressure on industry inventory accumulation. The demand side had stable demand from the main alumina downstream and an improvement in non - aluminum downstream demand, which supported the caustic soda price. The increase in liquid chlorine prices further improved the comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali enterprises. PVC spot and futures prices fluctuated upward. The supply side maintained a high level, and domestic demand was normal. Foreign trade exports were affected by unstable freight rates and were waiting for new quotes. The cost - end transmission from crude oil - ethylene - PVC was uncertain, and the market sentiment was affected by concerns about energy. [9] - **Glass and Soda Ash Industry**: The futures of soda ash main contract SA605 oscillated upward, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton. The supply side had a slight increase in weekly production, and there were expectations of supply contraction due to shutdown and maintenance. The demand side had a general trading atmosphere, with low - price transactions being the main focus. The inventory in factories reached a new high. In the current situation of weak demand and high inventory, caution should be exercised regarding upstream manufacturers. The futures of glass main contract FG605 increased slightly, closing at 1,055 yuan/ton. The downstream resumption of work was less than expected, and the trading atmosphere was light. The supply side had a low daily melting volume, and the demand side was restricted by weather and environmental protection policies, with delayed full - scale resumption of work and mainly inventory digestion after resumption. The inventory of production enterprises continued to accumulate significantly. [10] - **Natural Rubber Industry**: On the supply side, overseas raw material prices have been rising weakly recently, and with the approaching of the domestic production area tapping window, the market's expectation of new supply has increased. On the demand side, the semi - steel tire market was relatively stable, with post - holiday regular restocking in the domestic market, and individual dealer order fairs boosting channel purchase demand, and a significant increase in terminal retail sales volume; exports were affected by the weakening of the European and Middle Eastern markets, but the EU has not yet implemented a temporary anti - dumping tax, and overall orders still had resilience. The all - steel tire domestic market had concentrated restocking, and dealer order fairs boosted purchase enthusiasm, with good overall channel purchase sentiment; exports were under significant pressure, and the shipment to the Middle East and European markets weakened. Overall, although the domestic restocking of all - steel tires provided short - term support, the drag of overseas geopolitical risks on tire exports was more persistent, and the demand side generally suppressed rubber prices. However, geopolitical conflicts also made BR difficult to fall and provided some positive support to rubber prices. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate. [11] - **LPG Industry**: The prices of LPG futures contracts declined. The inventory of LPG refineries and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries showed different trends. The upstream main refinery operating rate remained unchanged, the sample enterprise weekly production - sales rate decreased slightly, the downstream PDH operating rate decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates remained stable. [13] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: Affected by geopolitics, the transportation of crude oil has been blocked recently, and the operating expectations of Asian refineries have been affected. Some domestic and foreign refineries have made defensive load adjustments, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The profit of the downstream styrene industry has been significantly repaired, and the load has remained at a relatively high level, with strong short - term demand support. Although the supply - demand expectations of pure benzene have improved, due to the remaining import pressure and the high inventory at ports, the self - driving force of pure benzene is still limited, and its price follows the fluctuations of oil prices and downstream styrene. For styrene, due to good industry profits, the load of styrene factories has increased significantly. In March, some styrene devices are expected to restart, but there are also some device maintenance plans, so the supply increase in March is expected to be limited. The demand side has a gradual recovery of post - holiday downstream demand, and combined with previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene in March is expected to have a slight destocking. Recently, oil prices have been strong due to the boost of the Middle East geopolitical situation, and combined with the blocked export of styrene from the Middle East due to transportation, domestic styrene has new export orders, and it is expected to be boosted in the short term. [16] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Affected by geopolitics, some domestic and foreign refineries have made defensive load adjustments, and the supply of PX is expected to decline. Starting from March, some domestic and foreign maintenance plans will be implemented one after another. Combined with the early restart or load increase of some TA devices due to improved processing fees after the holiday, the supply - demand expectations of PX have improved. The Middle East geopolitical situation also provides cost - side support to PX, and PX is expected to be strong in the short term. After the holiday, the load of PTA has increased, and the March PTA device maintenance plan may be less than expected. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, the sharp rise in oil prices has driven up the prices of the industrial chain, but the increase in the spot price of raw material PX is greater, and the PTA processing margin has been compressed. The short - term self - driving force of PTA is limited, and its absolute price follows the cost - side fluctuations. The Middle East geopolitical situation is tense, and the short - term crude oil price is expected to continue to rise, which enhances the cost support for ethylene glycol. In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol will significantly decline, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level from mid - March. At the same time, the polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and ethylene glycol is expected to have a slight destocking. Currently, the supply and demand of short - fiber are both weak. The short - term driving force of short - fiber is weak, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials. For bottle - chips, the domestic supply will gradually increase in March, and the terminal demand is in the recovery stage, with weakening expectations. The absolute price of bottle - chips still follows the cost - side fluctuations, but the processing fee may decline. [17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 showed different trends on March 5th compared to March 4th. The L59, PP59, and LP05 spreads also changed. Spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LLDPE increased. [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE enterprise inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. PP inventory decreased. PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while PE and PP downstream weighted operating rates increased. [1] Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased, and the MA59 spread decreased significantly. The Taicang basis decreased, and the MTO05 disk increased. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. [3] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased, while port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased, the Northwest enterprise production - sales rate decreased, and the downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged, while the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates increased. [3] Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased significantly on March 5th compared to March 4th. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also showed different trends. [5] - **Outlook**: Close attention should be paid to the appointment of Iran's new supreme leader, the safety of Middle East energy facilities, and the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz. [5] Urea Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: Urea futures declined after reaching a high, and spot prices were weak. The domestic urea daily production and weekly production increased, the device maintenance loss decreased, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased. The production enterprise order days increased. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, urea prices are expected to continue to trade in a high - level consolidation range, and attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation. [8] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed different trends. The export profits of caustic soda and PVC decreased. The caustic soda industry operating rate increased slightly, the PVC total operating rate remained unchanged, and the inventory of caustic soda factories increased, while the inventory of PVC upstream factories and total social inventory decreased slightly. [9] - **Outlook**: For caustic soda, short - term market increases are mainly due to optimistic expectations brought by geopolitical conflicts, and caution should be exercised regarding the decline of the disk after the easing of the situation. For PVC, the supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices may be passively pushed up due to concerns about the cost side. [9] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures increased. The supply of soda ash increased slightly, and the inventory of soda ash factories increased. The supply of glass was at a low level, and the inventory of glass production enterprises continued to accumulate. [10] - **Outlook**: For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see due to the high risk of short - selling on rebounds. For glass, it is recommended to short on rebounds or wait and see, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and inventory changes. [10] Natural Rubber Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged, and the basis increased significantly. The prices of Thai standard mixed rubber and international cup rubber and glue showed different trends. The inventory of bonded areas increased, and the futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly. [11] - **Outlook**: In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate due to the combination of supply and demand factors and geopolitical influences. [11] LPG Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of LPG futures contracts decreased, and the basis increased significantly. The LPG refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream main refinery operating rate remained unchanged, the sample enterprise weekly production - sales rate decreased slightly, the downstream PDH operating rate decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates remained stable. [13] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene upstream raw materials and downstream products increased. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of different links in the industrial chain showed different trends. [16] - **Outlook**: For pure benzene, pay attention to the risk of price drops after reaching a high, and roll low - buying. For styrene, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and also pay attention to the risk of price drops after reaching a high and roll low - buying. [16] Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products increased. The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the expected arrival volume decreased. The operating rates of different links in the polyester industrial chain increased. [17] - **Outlook**: For PX, it is expected to be strong in the short term. For PTA, its absolute price follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, it is expected to have a slight destocking in March. For short - fiber, it mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply will increase in March, and the processing fee may decline. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran remains. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout approach is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [1][2]. - For methanol, it has fully incorporated the current geopolitical premium. With no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, despite the positive downstream demand expectations, the supply - demand situation is in a state of both supply and demand being strong. The marginal influence is mostly about quotas, and there is little positive impact on quotas. The fundamentals of urea are expected to turn negative, so it is advisable to short at high prices [6][7]. - For rubber, the market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend faces a crucial test. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level. The supply reduction is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is a domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices of both have risen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [16][17]. - For polyethylene, due to geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices have increased. The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [19][20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will be relieved in the first half of 2026 with no new capacity plans. The downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound. In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [21][23]. - For p - xylene (PX), the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short - term, PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil [25][26]. - For PTA, as the maintenance expectations decline, it is difficult for PTA to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, and there is room for valuation increase in the mid - term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high. Although the import is expected to decline in March, the port stockpiling pressure is still large. In the mid - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year. With the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import reduction and de - stocking. It is advisable to pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices [30][31]. 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 61.30 yuan/barrel, or 12.00%, to 572.30 yuan/barrel. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed a decrease in crude oil arrival inventory by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a decrease in gasoline commercial inventory by 0.42 million barrels to 94.58 million barrels, an increase in diesel commercial inventory by 9.22 million barrels to 111.99 million barrels, and an increase in total refined oil commercial inventory by 8.80 million barrels to 206.58 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term layout is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 254.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2557 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 351 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices as it has fully incorporated the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by 30 yuan/ton; in Hebei and Hubei by 20 yuan/ton; and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at 21 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1819 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: Short at high prices as the fundamentals are expected to turn negative [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities generally declined, and rubber tumbled. The future trend faces a crucial test. The long side believes in limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved Chinese demand expectations; the short side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - season demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, and that of semi - steel tires was 38.35%. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, and as of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short the RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 71 yuan to 4939 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 259 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (+11) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, with the calcium - carbide method at 81.7% (down 0.3% month - on - month) and the ethylene method at 83.2% (up 0.7% month - on - month). The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1% (up 17.1% month - on - month). The factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [14]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6620 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 6761 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 141 yuan/ton, narrowing by 70 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 8150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the active contract closing price was 8081 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The basis was 69 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 158 yuan/ton, up 17.63 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 218.3 yuan/ton, down 58.6 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, up 3.16%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The three - S weighted operating rate was 30.45%, up 2.72%, the PS operating rate was 49.40% (down 0.30%), the EPS operating rate was 12.18% (up 12.18%), and the ABS operating rate was 70.70% (up 1.80%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7200 yuan/ton, up 209 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The basis was - 125 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 57.97 million tons, an increase of 23.60 million tons, and the trader inventory was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, down 1.58%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 17 yuan/ton, widening by 97 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7223 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton, strengthening by 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, up 0.26%. The production enterprise inventory was 73.99 million tons, an increase of 34.87 million tons, the trader inventory was 24.97 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.86 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, up 8.49%. The LL - PP spread was - 23 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton, and the PP5 - 9 spread was 54 yuan/ton, widening by 76 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Strategy View**: Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices as the supply pressure is relieved and the downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 148 yuan to 7984 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 20 US dollars to 1019 US dollars. The basis was 130 yuan (- 6), and the 5 - 7 spread was 50 yuan (+16). The Chinese PX load was 92.4% (up 0.4%), and the Asian load was 84.9% (up 1.2%). A 2.5 - million - tonne unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical's maintenance plan was postponed, while an overseas plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 295 US dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 US dollars (- 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (- 14) [25]. - **Strategy View**: Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil as it will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 302 yuan to 5552 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 220 yuan to 5375 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (+5), and the 5 - 9 spread was 14 yuan (+40). The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). On February 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 259.7 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 131 yuan to 145 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 12 yuan to 412 yuan [28]. - **Strategy View**: Follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices in the mid - term as it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle and there is room for valuation increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 100 yuan to 4025 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 141 yuan to 3894 yuan. The basis was - 56 yuan (+13), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan (+59). The ethylene glycol load was 79% (up 2%), with the syngas - based production at 84% (up 4.1%) and the ethylene - based production at 76.2% (up 0.8%). Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in their operating status. The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 2 was 0.37 million tons. The port inventory was 100.2 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1451 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 832 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was - 273 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 750 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price rebounded to 670 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices due to the tense Iran situation and potential de - stocking [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international oil prices have strongly risen, boosting the polyolefin market from the cost side. Polyethylene domestic supply remains high, and losses in oil - based and naphtha - based production routes have intensified this week. For polypropylene, planned maintenance in March is relatively high, and the resumption progress of PDH and other devices is slow due to rising raw material prices. Downstream factory开工率 is at a seasonal low. Although the current fundamentals are under pressure, there are still expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream开工率 [1]. Methanol Industry - The escalation of the Middle - East conflict has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and limited Iranian methanol exports, increasing geopolitical risk premiums. Domestically, the开工 rate remains high, but imports are affected by the conflict, and the arrival volume in March will decline significantly. The demand side is weak, and port olefin demand is poor. Port inventories are at a medium - high historical level, but there are expectations of inventory reduction. The current price is mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the port inventory reduction rhythm [3]. Chlor - alkali and PVC Industry - For caustic soda, the futures fluctuated weakly on the 2nd, and the spot price remained stable. The supply is expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resume work, increasing inventory pressure. The demand side has some support for the price. Overall, the domestic caustic soda supply - demand situation is weak, and the market may fluctuate and adjust in the short term. For PVC, the futures fluctuated higher on the 2nd, and the spot price was weakly volatile. The supply remains high, and the demand is normal. The price is affected by cost concerns and macro - sentiment, and the short - term upward sentiment may continue, but the increase is uncertain [7]. Urea Industry - The urea futures fluctuated down on the 2nd. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, and the inventory accumulated during the holiday exerts pressure on the price. The agricultural demand is advancing, while the industrial demand is slowly recovering. The price may be in a high - level stalemate in the short term. The main contract is expected to be in the 1800 - 1900 range, and attention should be paid to downstream demand progress and inventory accumulation [8]. LPG Industry - The LPG prices showed an upward trend on March 2nd. The炼厂库容 ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream - main refinery开工率 remained unchanged, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased slightly. The market is affected by various factors, and no specific overall view is provided in the report [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - Overseas main production areas are transitioning to reduced production and suspension of tapping, with a shrinking total supply and rising raw material prices. Downstream tire enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand is expected to be boosted. The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. With the strengthening of overseas raw material prices and the resumption of downstream production, and the impact of the tense Middle - East situation on oil prices, the rubber price is expected to rise, and previous long positions can be held. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation [13]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose significantly. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the risk premium of crude oil. If the risk spreads or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices will continue to rise; if the conflict eases, there is a risk of a sharp decline in oil prices. Geopolitical conflicts usually have a pulsed impact on oil prices, and long positions should be held with caution [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, domestic and international devices are operating stably, and the downstream styrene industry's profit has been significantly repaired. However, due to import pressure and high port inventories, the price follows oil prices and downstream styrene fluctuations. For styrene, the industry profit is good, and the factory load has increased. In March, the supply increase is expected to be limited, and the demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be boosted by oil prices in the short term. For both, long positions should be reduced at high levels, and attention should be paid to price pressure and oil price trends [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply is in high - level shock, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling can be considered around 1200. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the demand is restricted, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The price may also fluctuate, and short - selling can be considered around 1075. Attention should be paid to post - holiday macro - policies and downstream situations [18]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March, and the price is supported by cost and oil prices. For PTA, the load has increased, but the processing margin has been compressed, and the price follows the cost. For ethylene glycol, the supply will decline in March, and there are expectations of inventory reduction. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and it follows raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply will increase in March, and the processing margin may decline. For all products, long positions should be reduced at high levels, and attention should be paid to oil price trends [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased by over 5%. The L59, PP59, and LP05 spreads decreased. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and the downstream加权开工率 decreased significantly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, while the PP粉料开工率 and downstream加权开工率 increased [1]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 and社会库存 increased, and PP企业 and trade - dealer inventories also increased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the MA59 spread changed significantly. Spot prices in different regions also rose [3]. - **开工率**: The domestic upstream企业开工率 decreased slightly, the overseas企业开工率 increased, and the西北企业产销率 decreased. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 remained unchanged, while the甲醛开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存, port inventory, and社会库存 all increased [3]. Chlor - alkali and PVC Industry - **Price Changes**: For caustic soda, the spot price remained stable, and the futures fluctuated weakly. For PVC, the futures fluctuated higher, and the spot price was weakly volatile [7]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 increased slightly, and the PVC总开工率 remained unchanged. Downstream开工率 of related industries showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda厂库库存 increased, and PVC上游厂库库存 and总社会库存 changed slightly [7]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures price fluctuated down, and the spot price was relatively stable [8]. - **开工率**: The尿素生产厂家开工率 increased slightly [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic尿素厂内库存 and港口库存 increased, and the企业订单天数 decreased [8]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 prices increased, and the PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 spreads changed. Spot prices also rose [9]. - **开工率**: The上游 - main refinery开工率 remained unchanged, the样本企业周度产销率 decreased slightly, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The LPG炼厂库容比, port库存, and port库容比 all increased [9]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber and related products changed slightly, and the月间价差 also changed [13]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of automobile tires (semi - steel and full - steel) increased significantly [13]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased, and the上期所厂库期货库存 decreased slightly [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased significantly. The spreads between different contracts also changed significantly [16]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the裂解价差 also changed [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene increased. Pure benzene and styrene prices also rose, and their spreads and cash - flows changed [17]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of related industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene江苏港口库存 decreased slightly, and the styrene江苏港口库存 increased [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed slightly [18]. - **开工率**: The soda ash开工率 and周产量 increased slightly, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The玻璃厂库库存 and soda ash厂库库存 increased significantly [18]. Polyester Industry - **Price Changes**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased. Downstream polyester product prices also rose, and their spreads and cash - flows changed [19]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester - related industries showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable [19]. - **Inventory**: The MEG港口库存 increased, and the PTA华东现货价格 and期货 prices rose [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have seen a certain increase and factored in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap from Iran remains, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. - For methanol, the downward momentum persists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main strategy is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to short - allocate [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level, the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the only short - term support is the short - term rush for exports due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand for polyester and chemical fibers is expected to recover as it exits the off - season. The inventory - building cycle is about to end, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory building and high operation. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 6.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.23%, at 483.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.81%, at 2987.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 4.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12%, at 3460.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels to 435.80 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%; SPR replenishment was 0.00 million barrels to 415.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.01 million barrels to 254.83 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; diesel inventories increased by 0.25 million barrels to 120.35 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 42.34 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 37 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 20 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 37.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by (55.00) yuan/ton, at 2210 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 72 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 30 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 2 yuan/ton, at 1836 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber futures increased in volume and price, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally followed the increase, but the spot price increases of butadiene and butadiene rubber were relatively small. Bulls and bears presented different views. Bulls were optimistic due to macro - level expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 108 yuan, at 4855 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 175 (+ 68) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 137 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 631 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - factory inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market [18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 22 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the basis was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 1 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, gradually take profits [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons, and the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, narrowing by 11 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 45 yuan/ton, strengthening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons, the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, narrowing by 73 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, widening by 10 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 50 yuan, at 7382 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 2 US dollars, at 931 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (+ 56) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 12 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the Asian load was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In terms of equipment, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one production line for maintenance in March. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 313 US dollars (- 7), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 US dollars (+ 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 52 yuan, at 5260 yuan. The East China spot price fell 50 yuan, at 5235 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan (- 24). The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. The downstream load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. In terms of equipment, multiple units of Xin Fengming were under maintenance, a 25 - ton bottle chip unit in East China was under maintenance, and multiple units of filament and staple fiber were restarted. The terminal texturing load increased by 3% to 8%, and the loom load increased by 12% to 12%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 24 was 250.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 54 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 20 yuan to 417 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term,

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from warehouse receipts has eased. The supply side has limited support, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - season [21]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The cost side may see a reduction in supply surplus, and the supply pressure has eased. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil [27]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is expected to pick up. The stockpiling cycle is about to end. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and there is pressure on port stockpiling. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. There is a risk of a rebound in valuation [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.33%, at 488.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 10.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, at 2943.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 41.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.18%, at 3436.00 yuan/ton. In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 1.91 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 23.99%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 3.03 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.12%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 7.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.07%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 20.55 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.30% [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 6 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 20.00 yuan/ton, at 2249 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 82 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 40 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 30 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 17 yuan/ton, at 1838 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On the first trading day after the holiday, rubber futures saw a significant increase in positions and prices, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally increased, but the spot prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber increased less. Bulls are optimistic due to macro expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 86.4 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The total social inventory of light rubber in China was 43.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao area increased by 1.81 tons to 60.93 tons, with an accelerating inventory accumulation rhythm [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan, at 4963 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (- 7) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2300 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 629 (+ 11) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - plant inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the reduction in supply is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in an off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax - rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term support for the fundamentals. The cost - side calcium carbide price has decreased, and the caustic soda price has rebounded. Overall, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the styrene active contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB units was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products on the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%. The EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%. The ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have both decreased, and the basis has weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation on the supply side has decreased, and the styrene operating rate has fluctuated at a low level. The styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of three S products on the demand side has fluctuated and increased. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has continued to decrease. At present, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6777 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6635 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 9 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons. The trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has decreased. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The polyethylene spot price has not changed, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the disk. On the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into operation in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, providing support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has fluctuated downward [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6735 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 15 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons. The trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons. The port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 57 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the supply surplus may ease. On the supply side, there are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing the pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the disk price may bottom out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 46 yuan, at 7432 yuan. The PX CFR fell 4 US dollars, at 929 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (+ 4) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was 2 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%; the Asian load was 83.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Regarding the equipment, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. Regarding the equipment, Dushan Energy was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 320 US dollars (+ 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 US dollars (+ 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 93 US dollars (- 4) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA, with a relatively low overall load center. It is expected that PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. However, overall, the supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and the mid - term outlook is good. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester start - up and raw material equipment maintenance efforts after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil in the mid - term [2