Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 27 products experiencing price increases, 17 seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in mid-August 2025 compared to early August 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices decreased by 6.4 yuan per ton (-0.2%), while ordinary medium plates increased by 19.1 yuan per ton (0.5%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper rose by 735 yuan per ton (0.9%), while aluminum ingots increased by 55.5 yuan per ton (0.3%) [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.1 yuan per ton (0.3%) and methanol decreasing by 3.9 yuan per ton (-0.2%) [4]. - The petroleum and natural gas sector saw liquefied natural gas prices drop by 184.8 yuan per ton (-4.4%), while gasoline prices also fell [4]. - In the coal category, the price of ordinary mixed coal rose by 23.5 yuan per ton (4.3%), indicating a positive trend [4]. - Agricultural products like cotton increased by 225.9 yuan per ton (1.6%), while corn prices fell by 10.3 yuan per ton (-0.4%) [5]. Group 2: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The monitoring covers 31 provinces and municipalities, involving over 2,000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors [8]. - Price monitoring methods include on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [9]. - The price changes are categorized based on percentage changes, with a total of 27 products increasing, 17 decreasing, and 6 remaining stable [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The supply - demand data of rebar has slightly improved, with production decreasing, inventory growth narrowing, and apparent demand slightly rising. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan and the macro - vacuum period contribute to this trend [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to experience narrow - range oscillations. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, while the number of blast furnace overhauls and restarts has changed, and the inventory situation is complex, with port inventory rising and steel mill inventory falling [1]. - The coking coal market is likely to fluctuate. The production of some coal mines has decreased, downstream procurement is cautious, but coke enterprises' profits have recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remains high [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm, but some areas are affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke is relatively stable [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is expected to fluctuate. The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remains high, steel mills' demand is weak, and the inventory is at a medium level in recent years [1]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to fluctuate. The production of silicon - iron is increasing, downstream price - pressing intention is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Market Performance | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | Rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,300 in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. | This week, the national rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons year - on - year; social inventory increased by 175,800 tons to 4.3251 million tons; factory inventory increased by 22,700 tons to 1.7453 million tons; apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Iron Ore | The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day, with 280,000 transactions and an increase of 11,000 in positions. Port spot prices rose. | Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 restarts. Hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2.4075 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 626,300 tons to 144.442 million tons, the number of ships in port decreased by 3, and steel mill inventory decreased by 810,000 tons to 90.65 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1147 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 649 in positions. The price of some coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong. | The production of some coal mines decreased due to accidents and safety inspections. Coke enterprises' profits recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remained high. | Oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 807 in positions. Port spot prices were stable. | Coke enterprises' profits improved, and production enthusiasm increased, but some areas were affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke was relatively stable. | Oscillation [1] | | Manganese - Silicon | The manganese - silicon futures price oscillated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5838 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 6712 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remained high, and the weekly output exceeded 200,000 tons. Steel mills' demand was weak, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased slightly. | Oscillation [1] | | Silicon - Iron | The silicon - iron futures price strengthened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 3215 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The weekly production of silicon - iron continued to increase, reaching 113,400 tons this week, a 0.5% increase from the previous week. Downstream price - pressing intention was strong, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 3100 tons to 62,080 tons. | Oscillation [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Basis | Latest Value | MoM | Spot | Latest Value | MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 10 - 1 month | - 79.0 | - 4.0 | 10 - contract | 179.0 | 21.0 | Shanghai | 3300.0 | 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 39.0 | - 1.0 | 01 - contract | 100.0 | 17.0 | Beijing | 3260.0 | 0.0 | | | | | | | | | Guangzhou | 3310.0 | 0.0 | | Hot Roll | 10 - 1 month | 15.0 | - 2.0 | 10 - contract | 45.0 | 17.0 | Shanghai | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | | | | | | | Tianjin | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 9.0 | - 12.0 | 01 - contract | 60.0 | 15.0 | Guangzhou | 3520.0 | - 10.0 | | Iron Ore | 9 - 1 month | 18.5 | 1.5 | 09 - contract | 24.9 | - 2.8 | PB powder | 769.0 | 2.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | 24.5 | 2.5 | 01 - contract | 43.4 | - 1.3 | Super Special powder | 652.0 | 4.0 | | Coke | 9 - 1 month | - 59.0 | - 14.0 | 09 - contract | 27.8 | 28.0 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade | 1470.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 88.0 | 1.5 | 01 - contract | - 31.2 | 14.0 | | | | | Coking Coal | 9 - 1 month | - 117.0 | 1.0 | 09 - contract | 128.0 | 134.5 | Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal | 1350.0 | 120.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 46.0 | - 7.5 | 01 - contract | 11.0 | 135.5 | | | | | Manganese - Silicon | 9 - 1 month | - 92.0 | - 12.0 | 09 - contract | 4.0 | 10.0 | Ningxia, Inner Mongolia | 5570.0, 5750.0 | - 30.0, 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 50.0 | 0.0 | 01 - contract | - 88.0 | - 2.0 | Guangxi | 5780.0 | - 20.0 | | Silicon - Iron | 9 - 1 month | - 160.0 | - 6.0 | 09 - contract | - 54.0 | - 58.0 | Ningxia | 5330.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 120.0 | 8.0 | 01 - contract | - 214.0 | - 64.0 | Inner Mongolia, Qinghai | 5300.0 | - 50.0 | | | Profit | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | | | Rebar futures profit | - 28.6 | - 9.8 | Coil - rebar spread | 254.0 | - 16.0 | Coking coal ratio | 1.5 | 0.01 | | | Long - process profit | 67.8 | 6.4 | Rebar - iron ore ratio | 4.0 | - 0.03 | Coke - iron ore ratio | 2.2 | - 0.03 | | | Short - process profit | 36.2 | 10.4 | Rebar - coke ratio | 1.9 | 0.01 | Double - silicon spread | - 292.0 | 18.0 | 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides historical price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents historical basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [19][20][22][24]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows historical inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [28][32][34][36][37][39]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - variety contract spread trend charts for the main contracts of coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal ratio, and double - silicon spread [42][44][46]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit trend charts for the main contract of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [55].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Black Metal R & D Report, Ferroalloy Daily [1][2] - Report date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] - Futures practice certificate number: F03134259 [3] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0021009 [3] - Contact information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF main contract: closing price 5638, daily change +16, weekly change -280, trading volume 234,935, daily change -32,976, open interest 228,094, daily change +3,215 [4] - SM main contract: closing price 5838, daily change +2, weekly change -212, trading volume 161,343, daily change -70,832, open interest 288,840, daily change +6,712 [4] Spot Market - Silicon iron: spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Jiangsu and Tianjin remained stable; weekly changes were -50 to -200 yuan/ton [4] - Manganese silicon: spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton; weekly changes were -50 to -300 yuan/ton [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon iron: basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -238, daily change -66, weekly change +130; SF - SM spread was -200, daily change +14, weekly change -68 [4] - Manganese silicon: basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was -88, daily change -2, weekly change +162 [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump remained stable at 40.5 yuan/ton degree, South African semi - carbonate remained stable at 34.7 yuan/ton degree, Gabonese lump decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree to 39.7 yuan/ton degree [4] - Blue charcoal small pieces: prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained stable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Market Analysis - Silicon iron: on August 21, spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and production increased recently. Steel output remained high, supporting raw material demand. After a sharp price drop this week, futures prices were close to production costs in some regions, and high - premium risks were largely released. Prices were expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the near term [6] - Manganese silicon: on August 21, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and manganese silicon spot prices generally decreased. Whether the current resumption of production would be interrupted after the price drop needed attention. The apparent demand for threaded steel samples increased slightly this week, and no downward trend had formed yet. High - premium risks were largely released at current prices, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the near term [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: futures prices were close to production costs in some regions, high - premium risks were largely released, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the near term [7] - Arbitrage: when the basis was low, cash - and - carry arbitrage could be considered [7] - Options: sell straddle option combinations at high prices [7] Group 4: Important Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 7472,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%; in July, the total domestic billet export volume was 1,579,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07% [8] - On August 21, the quotation for semi - carbonate at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabonese lump was 39.5 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron was 29.8 yuan/ton degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton degree [8] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: production cost 5535 yuan/ton, profit - 135 yuan/ton [19] - Qinghai: production cost 5457 yuan/ton, profit - 57 yuan/ton [19] - Gansu: production cost 5609 yuan/ton, profit - 159 yuan/ton [19] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia: production cost 5853 yuan/ton, profit - 33 yuan/ton [22] - Ningxia: production cost 5958 yuan/ton, profit - 108 yuan/ton [22] - Guangxi: production cost 6430 yuan/ton, profit - 530 yuan/ton [22] - Guizhou: production cost 6176 yuan/ton, profit - 326 yuan/ton [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner due to factors such as limited production cuts in some steel mills in Tangshan, a short - term production - limit period, and a decline in demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [1]. - **Iron Ore**: With an increase in global iron ore shipments and a slight fluctuation in hot - metal output, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Considering the slow resumption of coal mines and the high - level operation of hot - metal output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: As some coke enterprises have received production - limit notices and steel prices are weakly volatile, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, although there is still some rigid demand support [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: Given the continuous increase in silicomanganese production, low demand from steel mills, and a change in market sentiment, the silicomanganese futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: With continuous growth in ferrosilicon production, weak demand, and limited fundamental driving forces, the ferrosilicon futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Trading Volume | Position Change | Spot Price | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3132 yuan/ton (2510 contract) | +6 yuan/ton, +0.19% | - | -85,300 lots | Tangshan billet: 3020 yuan/ton; Hangzhou rebar: 3230 yuan/ton | Production decreased, social inventory increased, factory inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased slightly | Volatile and weak | | Iron Ore | 769 yuan/ton (i2601 contract) | -2 yuan/ton, -0.26% | 290,000 lots | -9,000 lots | PB powder: 767 yuan/ton; PB lump: 915 yuan/ton; Carajás fines: 878 yuan/ton; Super Special fines: 648 yuan/ton | Global shipments increased, and hot - metal output fluctuated slightly | Volatile consolidation | | Coking Coal | 1162.5 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -32 yuan/ton, -2.68% | - | -15,151 lots | Lvliang raw coal: 518 yuan/ton; Mongolian coal: decreased | Slow resumption of coal mines, high - level operation of hot - metal output | Volatile | | Coke | 1678 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -30.5 yuan/ton, -1.79% | - | +644 lots | Rizhao port: 1470 yuan/ton | Production enthusiasm of coke enterprises increased, some received production - limit notices | Volatile | | Silicomanganese | 5836 yuan/ton (main contract) | -2.24% | - | +19,417 lots to 282,100 lots | 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton | Production increased continuously, steel mills' demand was low | Volatile and weak | | Ferrosilicon | 5622 yuan/ton (main contract) | -1.75% | - | -4976 lots to 228,100 lots | 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton | Production increased, supply - demand was in a game | Volatile and weak | [1][3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities over different periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends between different contracts for various black commodities [28][32][34][36][37][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trends such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - **Log**: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - **PTA**: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - **Soybean No.1**: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - **Corn**: Will operate weakly. - **Sugar**: Will be strong with fluctuations. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - **Egg**: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - **Live Pig**: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - **Peanut**: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive worry. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and if economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.15 - 7.23 in the short - term, with the area below 7.20 likely to be the main operating range. The US dollar index may remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting further guidance from the Jackson Hole Meeting [4]. - For stock indices, short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is expected to hover near the pressure line for some time. It is advisable to hold positions and use options for hedging [7]. - For treasury bonds, the bond market is still moving in tandem with the stock market, and the trading sentiment is weak. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can make small - scale purchases [8]. - For container shipping, the EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [11]. Summary by Directory Macro - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1793 on the previous trading day, up 27 basis points. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk [3]. Stock Indices - Yesterday, stock indices rose with reduced volume, and small and medium - cap stocks were relatively strong. Overnight, US stocks continued to fall, and the US dollar index declined. Foreign capital may continue to flow into A - shares, but risk appetite may decline [7]. Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher and then fluctuated, and weakened in the afternoon due to the stock market hitting a new high. The central bank announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [8]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European line) futures prices first oscillated slightly downward and then rebounded. Some new sailings of MSK had slightly higher spot cabin quotes [9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved, and it is advisable to buy on dips [14]. - For copper, it may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to oscillate; for alumina, it may oscillate weakly; for cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to oscillate. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum can be considered for arbitrage [19]. - For zinc, it is mainly expected to oscillate in the short - term [22]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they declined due to the impact of the broader market. They are affected by macro factors and the fundamentals of the industry [23]. - For tin, it is mainly expected to oscillate [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the price may rebound temporarily and then enter a weakening channel. In the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month futures contracts on rallies [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly in the future [28]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to high overseas inventory [30]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The CME "FedWatch" data showed the probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions in September, October, and December. It is advisable to buy on dips for gold and silver [12][13][14]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index declined slightly on Wednesday. First Quantum's Kansanshi copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly increase copper production [16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The US expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800. Alumina is in a state of oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is advisable to consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The main contracts of nickel and stainless steel declined. Spot prices and inventory data are provided, and the market is affected by the broader market and industry fundamentals [23]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index declined slightly on Wednesday. In July, China's refined tin imports increased and exports decreased. The delay in Myanmar's tin mine resumption has supported tin prices [24]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures main contract limit - downed. The lithium ore market sentiment slowed down, and the lithium salt market shipments increased. The price may rebound temporarily and then weaken [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The government held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were weak due to a significant increase in LME inventory. The supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected to oscillate [30]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For steel products, the short - term market has stopped falling and stabilized, but the fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate with reduced volatility, and its price may be stronger than that of steel products in the short - term [37]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and investors should pay attention to risk prevention [40]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is a possibility of a shift from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation [42]. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, steel product prices stopped falling and rebounded. Coal mines are resuming production, and Tangshan's production restriction intensity has increased. The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing [32][33]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market was generally weak, but rebounded in the afternoon. Steel production has been suppressed, and the iron ore price may oscillate [35][37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal's static supply - demand is in a tight balance, and coke's supply has perturbation factors. The market may fluctuate with sentiment, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventories [38][40]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [41]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the overnight market rose slightly, but it will continue to adjust weakly in the short - term. The medium - term risk of a downward break is increasing [44]. - For LPG, the fundamentals remain loose, and the market is affected by news. It is in a state of oscillation [46]. - For PX - PTA, it is advisable to buy on dips to expand the processing margin. In the medium - term, PTA's low processing margin will drive changes [48]. - For MEG, it is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost. In the long - term, the performance of the polyester peak season needs to be observed [51]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near future, and future attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [53]. - For PE, the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [55]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene may oscillate in the short - term, and for styrene, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [56][58]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force of domestic FU is downward [60]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [61]. - For asphalt, the unilateral price is weakly retracting, and the peak season shows no excessive performance. Future attention should be paid to specific measures for the asphalt industry chain [62]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, RU2601 is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see for the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage and buy on dips to expand the price difference between light and dark rubber [67]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [69]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [70]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance, and future attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [71]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, crude oil futures prices rose. The EIA report showed a significant decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory. Geopolitical factors are weakening the support for crude oil [43][44]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The market is affected by news [45][46]. PX - PTA - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. PX supply may increase, and PTA's processing margin is at a low level. The downstream demand is expected to improve [47][48]. MEG - MEG prices rose. The supply - demand is in a fragile balance, and it is expected to remain strong in the short - term [49][51]. PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. PE - PE prices rose. The supply may decrease in September, and the demand is in the process of recovery from the off - season to the peak season [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and it may oscillate in the short - term. Styrene's supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand surplus is decreasing [56][58]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is weak. The export has eased, the feed demand is strengthening, and the power generation demand is weakening [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was low in July, and the demand was weak. The short - term cracking spread has stabilized, and it is advisable to wait and see [61]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are weakening. The supply is stable, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortage. The cost pressure is expected to ease [62]. Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded. The import is increasing steadily, and the inventory pressure is high. The demand is facing challenges, and the cost support is strong [64][67]. Urea - Urea prices rose. The export may boost the price, but the agricultural demand is weakening. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [68][69]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices fell. The supply remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to cost factors [70]. Glass - Glass prices fell. The supply is stable, the demand is in a weak balance, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment changes [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: With the macro risk preference not significantly corrected, there is still support [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Log: Repeated oscillation [2][16] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series futures products on August 21, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and log, providing corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: No detailed data presented in the text [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data** - Rebar (RB2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,132 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%); trading volume was 1,317,374 lots, and open interest was 1,523,392 lots, a decrease of 85,302 lots [7] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.61%); trading volume was 619,254 lots, and open interest was 1,123,892 lots, a decrease of 61,086 lots [7] - **Macro and Industry News** - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% [8] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [8] - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [8] - In early August 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [9] - On August 14, steel output: rebar - 0.73 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.7 million tons; total inventory: rebar + 30.51 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.84 million tons; apparent demand: rebar - 20.85 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 8.54 million tons [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price was 5,622 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; trading volume was 267,911 lots, and open interest was 228,094 lots [10] - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price was 5,818 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; trading volume was 56,642 lots, and open interest was 117,713 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton (- 50) [11] - A steel mill in Fujian set the price of silicomanganese at 6,017 yuan/ton on the 19th, a 217 - yuan increase from July, with a procurement volume of 11,600 tons [11] - In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [12] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a relatively weak downward trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - Coking coal (JM2601): Closing price was 1,162.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (- 2.7%); trading volume was 1,974,478 lots, and open interest was 698,714 lots, a decrease of 15,151 lots [13] - Coke (J2601): Closing price was 1,678 yuan/ton, down 30.5 yuan/ton (- 1.8%); trading volume was 30,721 lots, and open interest was 39,060 lots, an increase of 644 lots [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Log - **Fundamental Data**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of log futures contracts (such as 2509, 2511, 2601), as well as the price information of log spot markets in Shandong and Jiangsu [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the black sector has experienced a significant decline and is expected to see a rebound in the near future due to the "anti-involution" trading logic, which unfolds in three phases [1] - Currently, the market is in the second phase, where the initial high expectations have led to a price correction as there are no concrete measures to support supply-side contraction [1] - A recent meeting held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments focused on the photovoltaic industry, discussing details related to the "anti-involution" measures, which may revitalize certain commodities like coking coal [1] Group 2 - The steel export resilience continues, and steel mills maintain profitability, indicating limited changes in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September adds to the potential for a rebound in the black sector, with key insights expected from the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting scheduled for August 21-23 [1] - Overall, the black sector is considered undervalued and is anticipated to undergo a correction after the recent downturn [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of both volume and price decline. The new production - restriction policy is looser, and there are fewer topics for speculation in the industry. The domestic policy may enter a vacuum period, and the market sentiment is cooling. The impact of pre - parade production restrictions on the total amount is not significant, and attention should be paid to possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment [2]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has significant emotional fluctuations. Although the anti - involution policy provides long - term support, the current high inventory still has a de - stocking pressure. The steelmaking bids are generally positive, and the industry average profit has been greatly repaired [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the seventh round of price hikes. The futures and spot markets are both weak. The market has entered an adjustment phase and is expected to be volatile and weak [5]. - The iron ore market is in an adjustment phase. The future supply increase expectation and large - scale project capacity - release expectation will suppress the price increase. However, the support of the anti - involution policy and possible policy impacts in the steel sector may bring upward opportunities after the adjustment [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Market Performance**: On August 19, the far - month and near - month contract prices of steel futures generally declined. The RB2601 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3403 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The spot market had a decline in both volume and price, and the market sentiment was poor [1][2]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The new production - restriction policy is looser, and the domestic policy may enter a vacuum period. The pre - parade production restrictions have little impact on the total amount, and the short - process power - valley profit is good, which is beneficial to the recovery of the operating rate [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply and demand of building materials were both weak, with a large decline in apparent demand. The plate market improved month - on - month, but the overall demand was in the seasonal off - season, increasing concerns about insufficient demand [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Unilaterally, pay attention to the support of the electric - arc furnace power - valley cost; in the short - term, pay attention to whether there is a stable trend when the price retraces. For arbitrage, do long the 01 volume - screw spread in the band. There are some profit - taking opportunities for the basis [7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have declined with the downward adjustment of the black sector [3]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The anti - involution policy provides long - term support. The steel mills' profits are repaired, and the supply of alloy plants continues to increase, with inventory mainly being destocked [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stop loss on long positions and wait and see [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The steel mills have not responded to the seventh - round price hikes of coke. The spot market sentiment is average, and the futures market is weak. The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined on August 19, with the J2605 contract closing at 1802 yuan/ton, down 1.02%, and the JM2605 contract closing at 1230 yuan/ton, down 2.73% [1][5]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The safety inspection in the main production areas has little impact on the market. The market is concerned about the imbalance between the supply and demand of steel, and the demand problem has come into the spotlight as the market enters the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the market to be volatile and weak [7]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The black sector is in a volatile trend, and the iron ore market is in an adjustment phase. The iron ore price is affected by the supply increase expectation and large - scale project capacity - release expectation [6]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The anti - involution policy continues, and possible future policies in the steel sector may have a greater impact on the iron ore market [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [7].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].