Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing of its year-on-year decline [1][2][5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 1.0%, marking the first increase in nearly 19 months, driven by improvements in related industry prices [3][4] CPI Analysis - In September, major food prices experienced seasonal increases, particularly in eggs and fresh fruits, contributing to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in CPI [2] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a high base from the previous year, with food prices dropping by 4.4%, notably pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs [2][3] - The core CPI's increase was supported by rising prices in household appliances and mobile phones, alongside a significant rise in gold jewelry prices due to international gold price increases [3][4] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [4][5] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improvements in supply-demand structures and the effects of macroeconomic policies, with specific industries like coal and black metal showing price increases [4][5] - The recent government measures aimed at regulating market prices and promoting fair competition are expected to further support price stability in various sectors [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to see a slight price correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16][17] - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][19] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.70%). The trading volume was 508,365 hands, up 8,566 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, and some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.85%), and HC2601 was 3,212 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.86%). Spot prices in various regions decreased, and some basis and spread values changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventories increased. In August 2025, steel exports decreased slightly, and imports increased [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, and a large steel mill's inquiry prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in October changed compared to September [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,151 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.2%), and J2601 was 1,642 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.8%). Spot prices were mostly stable, and some basis and spread values changed [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0 (neutral), and that of coking coal is 1 (slightly bullish) [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests of logs changed, and spot prices in different regions were mostly stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant capital inflows and outflows in various commodity futures, indicating a mixed market sentiment across different sectors [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in gold (¥560 million), peanuts (¥434 million), soybean (¥259 million), silver (¥226 million), and rebar (¥106 million) [1] - The agricultural and black metal sectors showed a net inflow, particularly in peanuts, soybean, and rebar [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in lithium carbonate (¥1.553 billion), polysilicon (¥1.322 billion), industrial silicon (¥698 million), copper (¥566 million), and nickel (¥231 million) [1] - The chemical, non-ferrous metals, and financial sectors experienced notable capital outflows, with a focus on lithium carbonate, polysilicon, copper, rubber, and crude oil [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Overall, the commodity futures market experienced a substantial outflow, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors [1] - The financial sector's capital flow is highlighted, with attention on the CSI 1000 index futures and 30-year treasury futures [1]

Core Insights - The recent economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics signal positive trends in China's economy, with both CPI and PPI showing signs of recovery [1][2] Demand Side Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from flat to rising, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - The core CPI's consistent growth over five months reflects an increase in consumer willingness to spend, suggesting healthy growth in overall economic demand [3][4] Supply Side Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand [4] - The improvement in PPI is linked to enhanced supply-side dynamics, with price declines in certain sectors like black and non-ferrous metals slowing down, while prices for consumer goods such as nutritional foods are rising [4][5] Economic Balance and Future Outlook - The interplay between rising CPI and narrowing PPI reflects a preliminary success in achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand [5] - Continued macroeconomic policies are essential for maintaining this balance, with expectations of sustained growth in GDP, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade contributing to a more robust economic outlook for China [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights positive signals from two major economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating resilience in China's economy during its transformation [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from flat to rising month-on-month, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a narrowing year-on-year decline, further validating the steady recovery of domestic demand [4] Group 2 - Demand is a key driver of the economy, with the CPI reflecting consumer-related price changes. The core CPI's continuous increase over five months indicates a healthy growth in total demand [3][5] - The PPI's performance is closely tied to the strength of demand, with improvements in market competition and price stabilization in certain industries, indicating a recovery in supply-side activity [4][5] - The overall economic growth in China is supported by coordinated efforts across consumption recovery, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade, suggesting a more robust foundation for future growth [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4%[1] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration[1] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The PPI showed no change month-on-month, indicating a halt in the downward trend for two consecutive months[2] - Prices in coal processing rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while black metal smelting and rolling industries saw a 0.2% increase[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals in price trends are attributed to central government measures since "9·24" aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting confidence[3] - Despite positive signals, there remains significant downward pressure on prices, particularly as investment and consumption data show signs of decline in the second half of the year[3] - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and effective policy resource utilization is emphasized to maintain growth momentum[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The current steel production is at a high level, inventory is accumulating, and supply - demand pressure is increasing. Sino - US trade friction uncertainty may disrupt market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand sides are in a state of long - short entanglement. Although the demand side is still at a relatively high position, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply side is mainly in normal production, and the demand side is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The supply side maintains production, and the demand side is supported by procurement needs, but downstream procurement is cautious. The short - term coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is expected to fluctuate with the black - goods sector in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel tenders [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The market sentiment is unstable, and the demand - side boost is limited. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel tenders [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 38,700 lots. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises increased by 7.5% month - on - month, and the steel inventory increased by 8.2% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 782 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton or 2.8% from the previous trading day. Global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased by 0.23 tons, and port inventories increased by 90.4 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Some coking enterprises made appropriate rigid - demand purchases, and online auction prices rose slightly. New orders for coal mines were still poor [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1654.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The port spot price fell. Coking enterprises maintained production, and some low - inventory steel enterprises were replenishing stocks, but downstream procurement was cautious [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The main contract price of silicomanganese was 5738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The mainstream steel tender in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last month [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44%. The mainstream steel tender quantity in October decreased by 195 tons. The production enterprise's start - up rate was relatively high, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3800 tons [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, a month - on - month increase of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coils was - 7.0, a month - on - month increase of 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the 01 contract of rebar was 149.0, a month - on - month increase of 12.0; the basis of the 01 contract of iron ore was 45.9, a month - on - month increase of 4.9 [4]. - **Spot**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3210.0, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 780, a month - on - month decrease of 16 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar's disk profit was - 99.6, a month - on - month increase of 9.1; the coil - rebar spread was 190.0, a month - on - month increase of 9.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the inter - variety contract spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron - ore ratio, coking - coal ratio, and double - silicon difference [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black - Goods Research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Director of Resource - Product Research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience in the field of resource - product research [52]. - **Liu Xi**: Black - Goods Researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Black - Goods Researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][6]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situations and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight回调 [2][7]. - Silicon iron is likely to have wide - range fluctuations as the quotes in the main production areas are loosening [2][11]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with the downward movement of manganese ore port quotes [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are subject to repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to experience repeated fluctuations [2][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 782.0 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan or 2.80%. The previous day's position was 499,799 hands, an increase of 14,460 hands. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,061 yuan/ton and 3,241 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.81% and 0.70%. Spot prices in major regions decreased. There were also changes in basis and spreads [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed that the daily output of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventory increased by 8.2% compared with the previous ten - day period. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.4% month - on - month. The weekly data on October 8 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and some manganese ore decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 13, the quotes of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed, and the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased. The manganese ore market is affected by macro - sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm, and the proportion of US - built or - operated ships in imported manganese ore ships is relatively small [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 0.7%. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, with some small fluctuations in the week - on - week and day - on - day comparisons [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situation and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight correction [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are likely to have wide - range oscillations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal will have weak oscillations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][14]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures price (12601) closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.19%. Spot prices of various imported ores decreased by 2 yuan/ton, while some domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased. Spot prices in major regions also declined. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff. In August 2025, China's steel exports decreased slightly, while imports increased. According to the October 8th weekly data, steel production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and there were changes in various spreads [10]. - **News**: On October 13th, the prices of silicon iron 72 in some regions decreased. Hebei Steel's 10 - month silicon iron and manganese silicon tenders decreased in quantity. Yunnan Kunsteel's silicon iron purchase price decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals decreased, while most coke prices remained unchanged. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - **News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs, stating that corresponding measures would be taken if the US persists [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while some had slight changes [17]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are under slight pressure due to the US tariff increase but are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further [7][8]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term prices may weaken with the macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is advisable to lightly build long positions on dips [9][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak at high levels. The market is affected by Sino - US tariffs, with increased supply and decreased demand [13][15]. - For ferroalloys, their valuations are not high. Short positions can be reduced on macro - impact dips [15][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Important Information**: China's export control is not a ban, and in September 2025, 1523 projects started nationwide with a total investment of about 1305.545 billion yuan [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak last Friday night. Some steel mills cut production last week, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday. Steel prices are under pressure due to inventory build - up and weak demand. Short - term prices may be affected by tariff news but are expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading; recommend going long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures on dips; suggest waiting and seeing for options [9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Important Information**: Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, and the average profit per ton of coke was 9 yuan. There are different prices for coke and coking coal warehouse receipts [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market may not react strongly to the proposed US tariff increase. In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water production. Supply is policy - supported. Short - term prices may weaken with the macro - market but the impact is limited [12]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Lightly build long positions on dips for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships from October 14. The added - value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises increased by 7.6% in the first eight months of 2025, and the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded in September [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US tariffs increase market uncertainty. Global iron - ore shipments increased in the third quarter, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in China. Ore prices are expected to be weak at high levels [13][15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hedge at high spot prices for single - side trading; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage; use circuit - breaker put - option strategies [15]. Ferroalloys - **Important Information**: There are different prices for manganese ore on October 10, and a factory in Inner Mongolia may add new production capacity at the end of October [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and demand is slightly down. For silicomanganese, both supply and demand are decreasing, and the cost - side manganese - ore inventory is at a low level. Both have reasonable valuations, and short positions can be reduced on macro - impact dips [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce short positions on macro - impact dips for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [17].