Group 1 - Nationwide Building Society reported an unexpected decline in UK house prices in August, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% compared to July, marking the third monthly drop since April [1] - Year-on-year, house prices increased by 2.1% in August, the lowest growth rate since June of the previous year [1] - Economists had predicted a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.8% year-on-year increase for August [1] Group 2 - Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, noted that the current housing affordability remains below long-term normal levels, which may explain the relatively weak house price growth [1] - A typical first-time buyer's monthly mortgage payment now accounts for approximately 35% of their after-tax income, significantly higher than the long-term average of 30% [1] - The Bank of England lowered the base rate from 4.25% to 4% on August 7, but concerns about inflationary pressures may slow down future reductions in borrowing costs [1] Group 3 - The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors indicated that concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming budget have dampened the recovery of the real estate market [2] - Ashley Webb from Capital Economics highlighted that speculation about possible property tax increases could further undermine buyer confidence in the coming months [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The updated time of the current fundamental high - frequency data is from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025. The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds expands, with a signal factor of 5.0% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.6, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 43.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points, and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.0, with a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.1%, and that of PPI is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.6, with a week - on - week increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency transportation index is 130.2, with a week - on - week increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency financing index is 235.6, with a week - on - week increase of 29.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering the overall situation, production, demand, prices, and financing is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices are built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 86.7%, up from 86.5%; the semi - tire operating rate is 72.8%, down from 73.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 63.8%, down from 64.8%; the PTA operating rate is 70.9%, down from 76.2%; the PX operating rate is 84.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 48.4 tons, up from 47.7 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters, up from 212,000 square meters; the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6%, down from 10.3% [30]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Decreases - The operating rate of petroleum devices is 29.3%, down from 30.7% [39]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1156 points, down from 1175 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.0 points, up from 296.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Decreases - The daily average box office of movies is 152.4 million yuan, down from 176.7 million yuan [61]. CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Remain Stable - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.0 yuan per kilogram, down from 20.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up from 4.8 yuan; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 17.5 yuan [68]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 695 yuan per ton, down from 703 yuan; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 68 US dollars per barrel, up from 67 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9725 US dollars per ton, up from 9616 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2616 US dollars per ton, up from 2577 US dollars [72]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 39.37 million person - times, down from 40.09 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,473, down from 14,834 [83]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 153,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons; the soda ash inventory is 1.878 million tons, down from 1.904 million tons [91]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Continues to Rise - The net financing of local government bonds is 243.5 billion yuan, up from 208.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 30.4 billion yuan, up from - 48.4 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.7%, up from 0.6%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.9%, up from - 1.03% [102].

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250901 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202509 2025 年 09 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的五维行业轮动 月度跟踪 202508 2025-08-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/08/31 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.44%，年 化波动率为 10.84%，信息比率为 1.98，月度胜率为 71.95%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.52%， 年化波动率为 6.58%，信息比率为 1.60，月度胜率 70.49%，历史最大回 撤为 9.36%。 ◼ ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for CITIC Limited (00267) for 2025 and 2026, with a target price increase of 17.4% to HKD 13.5, reflecting a market sentiment improvement [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, CITIC Limited reported revenue of CNY 368.8 billion, with a net profit increase of 6% year-on-year to CNY 59.8 billion, and a parent net profit of CNY 31.2 billion, showing a core operating profit growth of 0.4% after adjusting for last year's dilution effects [2] - The company declared an interim dividend of CNY 0.2 per share, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in half-year DPS, resulting in a dividend payout ratio increase of 1.4% to 18.6% [2] Group 2: Financial Sector Growth - The comprehensive financial sector's external revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to CNY 139.8 billion, contributing 38% to the total, with a parent net profit growth of 2% to CNY 28.4 billion, contributing 91% [3] - CITIC Bank's parent net profit rose by 3% to CNY 36.5 billion, driven by reduced operational and risk costs [3] - CITIC Securities experienced a revenue and parent net profit increase of 20% and 30% respectively, benefiting from an active capital market [3] - CITIC Trust's revenue and parent net profit grew by 4% and 13% respectively, with trust asset scale increasing by 13% since the beginning of the year [3] - CITIC Prudential's original premium income and parent net profit increased by 11% and 5% respectively, ranking among the top in foreign-funded life insurance companies [3] Group 3: Challenges in Advanced Materials and New Urbanization - The advanced materials sector reported external revenue and parent net profit of CNY 163.7 billion and CNY 5.2 billion respectively, with notable profit increases from CITIC Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, and CITIC Metal at 3%, 19%, and 31% respectively [4] - The advanced manufacturing sector's external revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to CNY 27.3 billion [4] - The new consumption sector saw a parent net profit increase of 353%, with CITIC Publishing's profit rising by 30% [4] - The new urbanization sector reported external revenue and parent net profit of CNY 14.4 billion and CNY 1.9 billion respectively, with significant sales growth in the real estate business, achieving a year-on-year increase of 60% to CNY 8 billion [4]

Macro Insights - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and a basket of currencies has been notable, with a 0.4% increase observed on August 28-29 [2] - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a slight recovery to 49.4% from 49.3% in July, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3% from 50.1% in July, suggesting a stable outlook for the service sector [3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with TMT transaction volume exceeding 40% of total market activity, indicating a shift towards fundamental-driven market behavior [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from Renminbi appreciation, such as consumption, non-bank financials, and electric new energy, which are currently at relatively low valuations [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility and sector rotation [8] Company Performance - Alibaba's Q1 FY26 revenue reached 247.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 13.7% [14] - Huichuan Technology reported a 26.73% increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 20.509 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.968 billion yuan, up 40.15% [18] - Zhonggu Logistics experienced a 41.6% increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 7.0% decline in revenue, attributed to high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [19] Sector Analysis - The beverage sector showed strong sales performance, with revenue growth of 22.8% in Q2 2025, while the snack food sector faced challenges with a 0.3% decline [12] - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards high-yield stocks, with the average allocation to FVOCI stocks increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 4.2% [10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with China Overseas Development reporting a 4% decline in revenue for H1 2025, but maintaining a strong project pipeline for future growth [22]

格隆汇9月1日丨领地控股(06999.HK)发布公告，公司股份将于2025年9月1日（星期一）上午九时正起暂 停于联交所买卖，以待刊发公司2025年中期业绩及其他内幕消息。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies' profitability showed a modest increase in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-financial profits grew by only 1.5% [1][5][20]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector grew by 2.8%, 4.2%, and 1.5% respectively [1][5]. - Non-financial operating revenue experienced a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit growth rates for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector were 1.6%, 5.7%, and -1.6% respectively, indicating a negative growth for non-financial profits [1][19]. Sector Analysis - The real estate and export sectors saw a slowdown in growth compared to Q1, with PPI's year-on-year decline further widening, impacting non-financial revenue growth and profit margins [1]. - The financial sector remained active in Q2, with the securities and insurance industries experiencing a profit growth of 16.6%, driven by a 49.2% increase in securities profits and a 5.9% increase in insurance profits [1][19]. - The main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw year-on-year profit changes of -2.7%, +4.1%, and +24.5% respectively in Q2 [1][19]. Economic Segmentation - The new economy's profitability improved by 6.8% year-on-year in Q2, while the old economy turned negative with a decline of 8.3% [1][19]. - Profit growth in upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors was -16.3%, +3.7%, and +1.7% respectively, with upstream performance weakened by the widening PPI decline [1][19]. Industry Highlights - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream areas performed well, with specific growth characteristics including: - Energy and raw materials sector profits increased by 12.7%, 77.5%, and 40.5% for industrial metals, precious metals, and rare metals respectively [18]. - The midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in power equipment and new energy, saw a profit increase of 26.8% [18]. - The consumer sector's profitability was supported by price and cost reductions, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery profits up by 20.4% [18]. Profit Distribution - The profitability of energy raw materials as a percentage of total profits decreased from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.8% in Q2 2025 [1][14]. Performance Quality - Non-financial ROE remained stable, with upstream sectors experiencing a decline while midstream sectors stabilized [24][25]. - A-share companies' cash flow statements showed improvement, with operating cash flow reaching the highest level since 2010 [31][34]. - Capital expenditure growth improved, with new economy sectors showing positive growth for the first time since Q2 2024 [39][41].

Policy Direction - The long-term policy anchor of "housing is for living, not for speculation" stabilizes the market, ensuring housing returns to its residential essence and mitigating excessive financialization and speculation [2][3] - In the next five years, both central and local governments will implement diversified regulations on land supply, financial credit, and taxation to promote a more rational real estate market [2][3] Market Supply and Demand - The real estate market's supply-demand relationship will undergo significant changes influenced by demographic, economic, and social factors [4][5] - On the demand side, an aging population will increase the demand for senior housing, while younger generations will focus on personalized and high-quality housing, with smart and eco-friendly homes becoming popular [4][5] - On the supply side, land supply regulation will lead to more reasonable housing supply, prompting developers to adjust strategies to meet market demand, particularly in high-quality housing [4][5] Technology Application - The application of emerging technologies will enhance operational efficiency and service quality in the real estate industry [6][7] - Big data analysis will help better understand market demands and customer preferences, providing a basis for corporate decision-making [6][7] Regional Differentiation - There are significant differences in the real estate market across different regions, with first-tier and some second-tier cities having mature markets and strict policies, while third and fourth-tier cities have substantial potential but face challenges like population outflow [9] - Future development in third and fourth-tier cities may focus on unique characteristics, such as tourism and industrial real estate, supported by policy [9] Transformation Direction and Key Features - The real estate industry is expected to transition towards a stable, healthy, and diversified direction over the next five years [11] - Key features include normalized policy regulation, optimized supply-demand structure, widespread technology application, and ongoing regional differentiation [11] - Real estate companies should align with policy directions, monitor market demand changes, enhance technological innovation, and develop strategies based on regional characteristics [11]

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The domestic housing market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines exceeding 60% [3][4] - Factors contributing to the long-term decline in housing prices include an oversupply of housing, with 120 million vacant units available, and a decreasing demand from younger generations due to an aging population [3][4] - Many cities have housing prices that are detached from local residents' incomes, indicating a potential return to more reasonable price levels [4] Group 2: Automotive Market - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with domestic mid-range cars seeing price cuts of 20,000-30,000 yuan and foreign luxury brands reducing prices by nearly 90,000 yuan [6] - The decline in car prices is driven by an oversupply in the market, with both fuel and new energy vehicles competing for market share [6][7] - The stagnation or decline in middle-class incomes has led to reduced demand for vehicle upgrades, further intensifying the price competition among automotive brands [7] Group 3: Small Appliances Market - The small appliances sector is undergoing a long-term adjustment, with significant price reductions for products like rice cookers and air fryers, which have seen prices drop from several thousand yuan to one or two thousand yuan [9] - The rapid technological advancements in the small appliances industry lead to frequent new product launches, causing older models to be discounted [9] - A slowdown in income growth has resulted in decreased demand for small appliances, while e-commerce and live-streaming sales are driving prices below market rates, forcing traditional retailers to follow suit [9] Group 4: Pork Market - Pork prices have significantly decreased, dropping from 35-40 yuan per jin in 2020 to 16-17 yuan per jin currently, indicating a price halving [11] - The decline in pork prices is attributed to an oversupply in the market due to increased participation in pig farming, as well as a shift in consumer preference towards lower-fat meats [11]