Core Viewpoint - Linyi aims to transform into an international city by enhancing its trade and logistics capabilities, drawing comparisons to Yiwu, which has successfully established itself as a global small commodity hub [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Goals and Development Plans - By 2030, Linyi's market transaction volume is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, logistics volume to surpass 1.5 trillion yuan, and foreign trade import and export volume to reach 200 billion yuan [5][6]. - The Shandong provincial government emphasizes the need for Linyi to develop a robust commercial logistics system with strong radiation capabilities, aiming to establish it as an international commodity distribution center and logistics hub by 2035 [6][7]. Group 2: Current Market Position and Challenges - Linyi has the largest market cluster in the country, with 136 specialized wholesale markets covering over 600 million types of goods, achieving a market transaction volume of 660.48 billion yuan and a logistics volume of 1 trillion yuan last year [4][8]. - Despite progress, Linyi's foreign trade volume remains significantly lower than Yiwu, with Linyi's import and export total at 114.8 billion yuan, only one-fifth of Yiwu's [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - Linyi is focusing on integrating internationalization and digitalization to enhance its market presence, with plans to develop overseas markets and logistics channels [11][12]. - The local government is prioritizing key industries and aims to strengthen its supply chain support, particularly in high-end stainless steel and advanced commercial vehicles [10][15]. Group 4: Regional Economic Significance - As a key player in Shandong's economy, Linyi is expected to contribute significantly to the province's GDP, which is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, making Shandong the third province in China to achieve this milestone [12][13]. - Linyi's development is crucial for the integration of the Lunan economic circle, with plans to elevate its economic capabilities and become a vibrant growth engine for the province [12][13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - policy is favorable for the metal sector, leading to a slight rebound in nickel and stainless steel. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply pattern with high inventory, so the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The demand for stainless steel grows weakly and the cost support weakens, and its price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation trend [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,760 yuan/ton and closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,262 (-47,034) lots, and the open interest was 109,686 (-5,360) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to the positive macro - policy expectations [2]. - In the nickel ore market, recent transactions have occurred. Indonesia's CIF tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines was settled at 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from domestic northern mines is expected to be around 43. The shipping season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is coming to an end, and northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel - iron is under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in November (Phase I) is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot premiums of various brands increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,433 (48) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,706 (270) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will remain in low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,750 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,841 (-3,249) lots, and the open interest was 98,223 (-4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the signs of easing Sino - US friction and the upcoming release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the main contract of stainless steel also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, but the transactions were still sluggish, and the actual transactions were mainly low - priced goods. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was from 215 to 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by -2.00 yuan/nickel point to 924.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand growth and weakening cost support, it is expected that the stainless steel price will remain in an interval oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - **Related Information**: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - **Trading Logic**: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - **Related Information**: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - **Related Information**: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - **Important Information**: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - **Important Information**: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - **Related Information**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - **Logic Analysis**: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - **Strategy Suggestion**: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - **Logic Analysis**: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - **Important Information**: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production has slowed down, and domestic production has gradually declined. Recently, the ferronickel price has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills' production profits have shrunk, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless - steel mills' production schedules have still increased [2]. - On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand has resilience, and domestic inventories continue to decline [2]. - Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustments, both long and short sides are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,900. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,437 lots, an increase of 1,329 lots; the position of the main contract is 98,223 lots, a decrease of 2,030 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,777 tons, a decrease of 119 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the market price of scrap 304 stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 320 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, clarifying the main goals of economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, steadily increasing total factor productivity, significantly increasing the household consumption rate, greatly improving the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, making new breakthroughs in comprehensive deep - seated reforms, and synchronizing household income growth with economic growth and labor compensation growth with labor productivity growth. It also proposes to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy, promote new economic growth points in quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G, and take extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high - end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biological manufacturing [2].

Core Insights - The global nickel market is experiencing a significant supply surplus, with refined nickel production outpacing consumption, leading to a supply excess of 30.51 million tons from January to August 2025 [1][2] - Domestic refined nickel production in China has increased substantially, with a year-on-year growth of 37.48% during the same period, while the industry operating rate remains high at 94.07% [2] - The stainless steel sector, a major consumer of nickel, is facing challenges with weak demand despite a slight increase in production, while the new energy sector shows signs of recovery [3] Supply Dynamics - Global refined nickel production reached 2.5494 million tons from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 301,600 tons, while consumption was only 2.2443 million tons [1] - Nickel ore imports in China totaled 26.1336 million tons, up 6.47% year-on-year, and nickel iron imports rose by 28.1% to 7.267 million tons [1] - The supply surplus is expected to worsen, with forecasts indicating a surplus of 198,000 tons in 2025 and 256,000 tons in 2026 [1] Demand Challenges - The stainless steel industry is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) scenario, with prices declining and high nickel iron prices falling below production costs [3] - The new energy sector shows a potential rebound, with a reported 11% increase in sulfate nickel production in August, driven by higher operating rates of ternary precursors [3] - Alloy demand is uneven, with strong growth in global automotive sales supporting nickel demand, while the electronics sector remains weak [3] Inventory and Price Outlook - Nickel inventories are at high levels, with SHFE nickel warehouse receipts up 13% year-on-year and LME nickel inventories surging 72% [4] - The nickel market is characterized by a significant divergence of opinions, with factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and supportive policies for new energy providing some price support, while ongoing supply surplus and high inventories limit price increases [4] - The nickel market is expected to remain in a volatile state unless there is a substantial improvement in supply-demand fundamentals [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].