Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current rally in the non-ferrous metals market is primarily driven by speculative capital inflow rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics, with tin being the most elastic metal due to its low holding volume [1][11][22] - The recent surge in tin prices, from 300,000 CNY/ton to 350,000 CNY/ton, occurred over 30 trading days, while the jump to 400,000 CNY/ton took only 6 days, indicating a rapid speculative environment [1][11] - Historical patterns show that previous price surges, such as the one in early 2022, were followed by significant corrections, suggesting that the current market may be nearing a similar turning point [2][10] Group 2 - The article outlines that the last major price surge occurred from late 2021 to early 2022, driven by supply constraints from Myanmar and increased domestic smelting capacity, leading to a significant imbalance in the market [4][10] - The collapse phase from March to October 2022 was characterized by a combination of high prices suppressing demand and a recovery in supply, which ultimately led to a drastic price drop [10][14] - Current signals indicate that the upward momentum in tin prices may be waning, with increasing pressure for rational market behavior as supply from Myanmar begins to stabilize and domestic inventories remain low [11][15][21] Group 3 - The article highlights that regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market, including increased margin requirements and trading limits on tin futures [21] - The sentiment indicator for the commodity market peaked at 5.73 on January 7, 2025, but has since retreated to a more normalized level of 2.6, indicating a cooling of speculative enthusiasm [18][22] - The focus for future market movements will likely shift back to fundamental factors, including the stability of actual supply and the real recovery of downstream consumption [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices initially declined and then rebounded, with losses in domestic refined copper imports persisting. The US labor market remains resilient, and a Fed official said there's no reason to cut interest rates. China's central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons, Comex inventories increased by 4,653 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and BC copper increased by 2,098 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream procurement became more cautious, and the export window is gradually opening. Trump said he would not impose tariffs on key minerals like copper. The high - level instability of copper prices is evident, and there is a divergence between foreign capital's bullish sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Spot alumina prices fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina producers have high ore reserves, and costs are under pressure. With the end of environmental controls and increased production, along with imports, inventories are accumulating. The processing end of the photovoltaic industry may maintain resilience, and the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has eased slightly. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount is narrowing [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.04% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.24%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce its nickel ore production target in 2026, which may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap and stimulate nickel price increases. The first - level nickel production has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. Short - term, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US labor market data is strong, and China's central bank cut interest rates. Inventory changes vary in different markets. High copper prices make downstream procurement cautious, and the export window is opening. Trump's statement on tariffs and external risks affect copper prices, with a divergence between market sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures and spot prices of aluminum - related products are weak. Alumina costs are under pressure, inventories are accumulating, and the processing end may maintain resilience, with aluminum prices remaining high and the discount narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight, inventories increased. Indonesia's production cut plan may drive up prices, while increased production and hedging demand pose challenges [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventories decreased by 500 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 1,070 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 3,800 tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 2,107 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 470 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 14,010 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased by 16,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 624 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 1,700 tons, and social inventories increased by 2,126 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 6,230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.8%. LME inventories decreased by 25 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 793 tons, and social inventories decreased by 5,000 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 8.3%. LME inventories decreased by 5 tons, SHFE inventories decreased by 1,001 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [12]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [18]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [30]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [37]. Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both with significant achievements and media exposure [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - Zinc industry stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Zinc Industry Co. achieving a second consecutive trading limit increase, and Luoping Zinc Electric rising over 7% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zinc Industry Co. has seen a second consecutive trading limit increase, indicating strong market performance [1] - Luoping Zinc Electric has increased by more than 7%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Zhuzhou Smelter Group, Jiangxi Copper, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, are also experiencing upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract referring to the range of 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M operating range referring to 12,900 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [3] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating range referring to 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M operating range referring to 3,140 - 3,200 US dollars/ton [5] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to move sideways in the short term [8] - Lead prices may have a short - term pulse - type increase and may follow the sector to make up for the increase [11] - Zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the increase in macro - attributes, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio should be observed [14] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference operating range is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference operating range is 52,000 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [16] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term Shanghai nickel price operating range refers to 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range refers to 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [19] - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 156,000 - 169,000 yuan/ton [23] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and it is not cost - effective to chase long. One can wait for an opportunity to arrange short positions in the near - month contract. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference operating range is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and the main contract reference operating range is 14,000 - 14,900 yuan/ton [29] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns eased, causing crude oil prices to fall. Concerns about tariffs eased, leading to a decline in silver prices. Copper prices declined and then rebounded. The LME copper 3M closed down 1.14% to 13,148 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,860 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 to 141,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory continued to increase, the bonded area inventory decreased month - on - month, and the SHFE daily warrants increased by 13,000 to 163,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 200 yuan/ton higher than the futures, and in Guangdong, it was 130 yuan/ton higher. The spot import loss of Shanghai copper narrowed to about 1,400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,250 yuan/ton, narrowing significantly month - on - month [2] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, the expected increase in investment by the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. Coupled with tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot, copper prices are strongly supported and are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The decline in crude oil and precious metals caused aluminum prices to fall. The LME aluminum closed down 0.56% to 3,171 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 25,000 to 741,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 5,000 to 138,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 9,000 tons compared with Monday, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 17,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, and market sentiment was still mostly wait - and - see. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China to futures widened to 130 yuan/ton, and the transaction margin improved. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 to 490,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Against the background of a decline in the current aluminum - water ratio and high aluminum prices, there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation. However, low overseas inventories and strong spot prices have a positive impact on aluminum prices. Coupled with relatively stable downstream start - up in China and strong resilience in aluminum product exports, as well as the expectation of a rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic modules, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated and corrected. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.93% to 23,155 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract declined to 26,800 lots, and the trading volume was 20,500 lots. The warrants increased by 1,800 to 70,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,220 yuan/ton, widening slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area decreased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market increased by 1,100 to 69,300 tons, and the in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4,300 to 60,200 tons [7] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and there are continuous disturbances on the supply side, so the price is strongly supported. However, the demand is relatively average, and the price is expected to move sideways in the short term [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.98% to 17,539 yuan/ton, with a total position of 123,500 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Thursday afternoon, the LME lead 3S rose 27 to 2,083 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 173,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 200 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 26,100 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 165 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 52,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 43.33 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 104.8 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.209, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 131.15 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in the country's major markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons compared with January 12 [9] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In terms of industry status, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased slightly, the lead ore TC has remained at a low level, and the production start - up rate of primary smelting has remained high. The raw material inventory of recycled lead has further declined, and there has been no winter inventory accumulation, with the raw material level significantly lower than in previous years. The production start - up rate of recycled smelting has increased significantly. The finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly. The production start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined. In terms of sector sentiment, the current lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds has increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may drive the lead price to have a short - term pulse - type increase and break away from the fundamental oscillation range. The high - rising macro sentiment has driven the overall upward movement of the non - ferrous metal sector. Shanghai lead is the only basic metal that has not had a significant increase, and the net long positions of macro seats have remained high. There is a possibility that the lead price will follow the sector to make up for the increase [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.54% to 25,091 yuan/ton, with a total position of 260,900 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Thursday afternoon, the LME zinc 3S rose 85.5 to 3,305 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,410 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was flat. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,900 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 14.32 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.091, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,265.56 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in the country's major markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with January 12 [13] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In terms of industry status, the visible inventory of zinc ore has increased slightly, the import TC of zinc concentrates has declined again, the zinc smelting profit has slowly increased with the rise of zinc prices, and the industry situation has not improved significantly. In terms of sector sentiment, the non - farm payrolls data in December was lower than expected. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007. Since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price still has a large room to make up for the increase compared with copper and aluminum. After the LME issued an announcement on January 15, it triggered market concerns about overseas delivery products. Shanghai zinc increased its position and rose, and its intraday trend was significantly stronger than other varieties in the sector. The net long positions of macro seats have remained high, and the zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the increase in macro - attributes. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio should be observed [14] Tin - **Market Information**: On Thursday, tin prices continued to rise. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 433,000 yuan/ton at 3 pm, a 4.80% increase compared with the previous day. In terms of supply, the tin ore production in Wa State, Myanmar is gradually recovering. The production start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan has remained at a high level, with a start - up rate of 87.09% last week, basically the same as the previous week. However, due to the continuous low tin ore processing fees, enterprises have insufficient willingness to further start production. Smelters in Jiangxi are facing the dilemma of insufficient supply of recycled raw materials, and the refined tin output has continued to be at a low level. Some enterprises further reduced production slightly last week. In terms of demand, the continuous decline in tin prices has stimulated terminal industries such as electronics and solders to replenish their inventories for rigid needs, but the high prices have also suppressed some downstream purchases, resulting in market transactions mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, affected by the slight tightening on the supply side and short - term inventory replenishment on the demand side, the SMM tin ingot social inventory last week was reported at 7,478 tons, a significant decrease of 1,042 tons compared with the previous week [15] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, the bargaining power of downstream enterprises is limited under the situation of low inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference operating range is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference operating range is 52,000 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 15, nickel prices showed a strong trend. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.12% increase compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot prices to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot prices was reported at 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at 54.54 US dollars/wet ton, a price increase of 2.17 US dollars/wet ton compared with the previous day. The arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices increased significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 30 yuan/nickel point compared with the previous day [18] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still relatively large, and the continuous increase in disk inventory restricts the upward space of nickel prices. However, macroscopically, the loose domestic liquidity and the Indonesian government's plan to reduce the RKAB quota support the price. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still oscillate widely in the short term. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term Shanghai nickel price operating range refers to 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range refers to 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) reported 157,611 yuan in the evening session, a - 1.97% decrease compared with the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 154,900 - 161,200 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3,200 yuan (- 1.98%) compared with the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 152,600 - 158,000 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 1.86% compared with the previous day. The closing price of

1月16日，江西铜业涨5.47%，截至发稿，报65.39元/股，成交16.09亿元，换手率1.21%，总市值2264.28 亿元。江西铜业股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅10.67%。 资料显示，江西铜业股份有限公司位于江西省南昌市高新开发区昌东大道7666号，成立日期1997年1月 24日，上市日期2002年1月11日，公司主营业务涉及铜和黄金的采选、冶炼与加工;稀散金属的提取与加 工;硫化工以及金融、贸易等领域。主营业务收入构成为：阴极铜50.21%，铜杆线19.55%，黄金 14.50%，铜精矿、稀散及其他有色金属6.91%，白银3.21%，铜加工产品2.66%，其他产品1.65%，化工 产品(硫酸硫精矿)0.85%，其他(补充)0.46%。 截至发稿，余海燕累计任职时间15年42天，现任基金资产总规模4406.28亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 184.02%， 任职期间最差基金回报-78.9%。 庞亚平累计任职时间7年92天，现任基金资产总规模3626.49亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报116.95%， 任 职期间最差基金回报-37.67%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任 ...

Macro News - The central bank has decided to lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points starting January 19, 2026, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year agricultural and small business re-lending respectively, and a rediscount rate of 1.5% [2][6] - The State Council announced eight policy measures to support economic structural transformation, including increasing the re-lending quota for agricultural and small businesses by 500 billion yuan and raising the technology innovation re-lending quota from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [2][6] - The People's Bank of China indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [3] Industry News - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation aims to fully break through reusable rocket technology by 2026 and significantly develop commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [1][7] - The National Grid announced that its fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on the construction of a new power system [7] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with London Metal Exchange copper hitting $13,407 per ton on January 14, and domestic copper futures exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton [7] Company News - Zhite New Materials announced that its business does not involve AI applications, and its stock resumed trading [9] - Liou Co. announced a significant stock price deviation and is under trading suspension for verification [9] - Kunlun Wanwei expects a net loss of 20 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - SAIC Motor Corporation anticipates a net profit increase of 438%-558% for 2025, with total vehicle wholesale sales reaching 4.5075 million units [9] - Longpan Technology expects procurement transactions with CATL to not exceed 7 billion yuan in 2026 [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Shanghai copper market opened higher but declined during the day. The copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, with the spot market remaining weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit sources. The refined copper output is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. Terminal demand shows strong growth, but the copper products sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. Trump's decision weakens the expectation of refined copper being included in the tariff scope, and the copper price increase has slowed, but the probability of a sharp decline is low [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and then declined during the day. The refined copper output is expected to drop in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 new smelter delaying its launch. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may control 15% of the global copper supply. Terminal demand grows strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious. Copper inventories have increased significantly, and the copper price increase has slowed, with a low probability of a sharp decline [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper opened higher and declined during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 160 yuan/ton. On January 14, 2026, the LME official price was 13,240 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +95 US dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of January 12, the spot TC was - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound [6] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 162,700 tons, an increase of 13,378 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons. LME copper inventory is 141,600 tons, an increase of 75 tons. COMEX copper inventory is 535,800 short tons, an increase of 4,090 short tons [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production, with a reported output of 3.79 million tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] - Cumulative production from January to November 2025 reached 41.165 million tons, also showing a growth of 2.5% compared to the previous year [1] - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting, which outlines the development strategy and investment opportunities in the Chinese primary aluminum industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Shenhuo Holdings (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Dongyangguang (600673), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), and Minfa Aluminum (002578) [1] - The data presented is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating the reliability of the statistics [1]

Report Information - **Authors**: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - **Date**: January 14, 2026 [2] - **Investment Advisory License**: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is strong but slightly differentiated. In a relatively loose monetary environment, driven by factors such as AI technology development, increased attention to the key mineral supply chain, and enhanced supply uncertainties of strategic resources due to rising nationalism in resource - rich countries and geopolitical disturbances, the sector remains strong, though there are fluctuations in market sentiment. The lower - than - expected US CPI data boosts the expectation of a rate cut in April, and the market continues to show relatively warm fluctuations [12]. - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to reach 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%, and automobile exports are expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% [12]. - Overseas data shows that the number of new non - farm jobs in the US in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Traders almost eliminated their bets on a rate cut in January. The preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January reached a four - month high. The core CPI growth rate in December was lower than expected, and traders increased their bets on a mid - year rate cut [12]. Summary by Directory Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong with a slightly differentiated trend. The sector remains strong under the influence of a loose monetary environment, AI development, and geopolitical factors. The lower - than - expected US CPI boosts the April rate - cut expectation. China's foreign trade recovers, and the new energy vehicle and automobile export markets are promising. Overseas, the US employment and inflation data affect market rate - cut expectations [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Try to gradually buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range is around 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is around 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options [4]. - **Zinc**: Follow the overall sector trend. The upper pressure is around 24,500 - 24,800, and the short - term lower support is around 23,600 - 23,800 [5]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 25,000 - 27,000, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 22,300. For alumina, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. The upper pressure range is 2,900 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,000 - 2,200. For recycled aluminum alloy, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500 [6]. - **Tin**: Adopt a bullish approach before the capital enthusiasm fades. The upper pressure range is 430,000 - 450,000, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to remain in an overall oscillatory pattern. The short - term lower support is around 17,000 - 17,200, and the upper resistance is around 17,600 - 17,800 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, trade in short - term bands with light positions. The upper resistance is around 146,000 - 150,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 137,000 - 138,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the lower support is around 13,300 - 13,400, and the upper resistance is around 13,800 - 14,200 [9]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 104,120 | 1.79% | | Zinc | 24,475 | 0.99% | | Aluminum | 24,595 | 0.90% | | Alumina | 2,800 | 0.72% | | Tin | 413,170 | 8.92% | | Lead | 17,385 | 0.43% | | Nickel | 140,940 | 1.80% | | Stainless Steel | 13,925 | 0.98% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 23,380 | 0.93% | [19] Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis | Variety | Change Rate | Net Long - Short Strength | Net Long - Short Position Difference | Net Long Change | Net Short Change | Influencing Factors | Sector | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Silver (AG2604) | 8.03% | Strong long - position by main players | 28,858 | 8,527 | 2,518 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Tin (SN2602) | 8.00% | Strong short - position by main players | - 1,587 | 3,312 | 2,168 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Platinum (PT2606) | 3.67% | Strong short - position by main players | - 6,164 | - 51 | 505 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Gold (AU2602) | 1.07% | Strong long - position by main players | 44,062 | 5,965 | 269 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Copper (CU2603) | 0.85% | Strong short - position by main players | - 12,022 | 10,878 | 10,384 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Zinc (ZN2603) | 0.51% | Strong long - position by main players | 4,889 | 4,248 | 4,101 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Industrial Silicon (SI2605) | 0.34% | Strong short - position by main players | - 15,966 | 2,170 | - 8,250 | Short - position decrease by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Aluminum (AL2603) | - 0.06% | Strong short - position by main players | - 27,898 | 2,269 | - 4,016 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Nickel (NI2602) | - 0.11% | Strong short - position by main players | - 17,247 | 1,418 | - 4,872 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Lead (PB2603) | - 0.17% | Strong long - position by main players | 2,859 | 3,006 | 3,648 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Aluminum Alloy (AD2603) | - 0.21% | Strong short - position by main players | - 376 | 20 | 238 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Alumina (AO2605) | - 0.28% | Strong short - position by main players | - 123,283 | 8,091 | - 22,032 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Polysilicon (PS2605) | - 1.46% | Strong long - position by main players | 242 | 188 | - 892 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Lithium Carbonate (LC2605) | - 3.53% | Strong short - position by main players | - 93,289 | - 740 | 12,009 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | [22] Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and change rates of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29] Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each metal, including price ratios and basis spreads [51][53][55] Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report provides charts related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest [67][69][71]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to rise, with zinc prices experiencing a rebound [1] - Companies such as Luoping Zinc Electric and Zinc Industry Co. both reached the daily limit increase [1] - Other companies like Zhongjin Lingnan, Chihong Zn & Ge, and Jintong Co. also saw significant gains [1]