半年净利暴跌59%，谁"偷"走了牛栏山的利润？ 有行业人士分析，牛栏山长期依赖的餐饮渠道正在经历结构性下滑，而以汾酒、泸州老窖为代表的名酒企业正强势下沉，抢占牛 栏山的大众价格带市场。 渠道失守 有餐饮老板称，今年所拿货的牛栏山，相较于以往，走量慢了很多，同比去年，今年牛栏山的开瓶率变低了，不过中小型餐饮终 端正在减少白酒进货量。 餐饮消费中，啤酒等低度酒饮占据主导，而选择白酒的消费者，越来越多地倾向于自带通过零售渠道购买的高端产品。这使得主 打大众价格带的牛栏山在餐桌上逐渐"失位"。 餐饮渠道萎缩、名酒下沉挤压、年轻消费偏好变迁，曾凭借"白牛二"行走天下的牛栏山，面临前所未有的生存难题。 | 主要产品 | 生产量 | 销售量 | 库存宜 | | 生产量同比 销售量同比 库存量同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (千升) | (千升) | (千升) | 变动(%) | 变动(%) | 变动(%) | | 42 度 500ml 牛栏山陈酿酒 | 65, 203. 23 | 115.405.25 | 4.093.94 | -58.63% | ...

在中国股市的波澜壮阔中，一个关键词反复跃入投资者的眼帘——景气度。它不仅成为大牛股背后的共通密码，更是衡量企业当前业绩增速的"安全阀"。当 财报季的大幕缓缓落下，2025年上半年的市场格局清晰展现：新成长势力与老牌龙头之间的业绩温差，成为最为引人注目的风景线。 消费观念代际更迭，映射在股市上便是新旧消费势力的此消彼长。曾经，"年轻人终将爱上茅台，资金无处安放时房产成首选"的论调盛行一时。而今，新消 费势力崛起，00后偏爱以奶茶庆典，不买房的钱转而追求生活品质与情绪价值，这一趋势正悄然改变市场格局。 科技领域同样见证着龙头更迭的剧烈震荡。外卖平台曾被视为高粘性、迁移成本高昂的商业典范，然而，随着竞争对手贴身肉搏，不惜亏损也要抢占市场份 额，龙头企业的护城河似乎也不再坚不可摧。市场的风向，总是这般瞬息万变。 回望上一轮牛市，光伏、锂电、电动车等"新三样"出口产品，经历了业绩与估值的双重洗礼。在渗透率达到高峰后，先是业绩遭遇滑铁卢，随后估值也大幅 回调。市场期待"反内卷"的到来，供需关系的真正改善似乎仍需时日。然而，在另一侧，AI产业链却以惊人的高增速脱颖而出，成为新的增长极。寒武纪营 收激增43倍，股价扶摇直上， ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to solve the systematic rotation problem of styles by conducting a bottom-up quantitative market trend analysis. It identifies the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future market's mainstream style through a comprehensive comparison of assets[1][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model considers five style stages based on the asset's industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[1][5] - The priority for asset comparison is based on the sequence: growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend (D)[1][5] - The model uses the spread of asset advantage differences to capture the trend changes of top assets, similar to factor timing[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has shown good explanatory power for past A-share style rotations, achieving an annualized return of 27.25% since 2009[15] Model Backtesting Results - **Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework**: - 2009: Asset Comparison Strategy 133%, Wind All A 82%, Excess Return 51%[18] - 2010: Asset Comparison Strategy 7%, Wind All A -7%, Excess Return 14%[18] - 2011: Asset Comparison Strategy -33%, Wind All A -22%, Excess Return -11%[18] - 2012: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 0%[18] - 2013: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 36%[18] - 2014: Asset Comparison Strategy 48%, Wind All A 52%, Excess Return -4%[18] - 2015: Asset Comparison Strategy 55%, Wind All A 38%, Excess Return 16%[18] - 2016: Asset Comparison Strategy -14%, Wind All A -13%, Excess Return -1%[18] - 2017: Asset Comparison Strategy 32%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 27%[18] - 2018: Asset Comparison Strategy -21%, Wind All A -28%, Excess Return 7%[18] - 2019: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 33%, Excess Return 8%[18] - 2020: Asset Comparison Strategy 69%, Wind All A 26%, Excess Return 44%[18] - 2021: Asset Comparison Strategy 47%, Wind All A 9%, Excess Return 38%[18] - 2022: Asset Comparison Strategy 44%, Wind All A -19%, Excess Return 62%[18] - 2023: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A -5%, Excess Return 10%[18] - 2024: Asset Comparison Strategy 62%, Wind All A 10%, Excess Return 52%[18] - 2025 (Aug): Asset Comparison Strategy 27%, Wind All A 23%, Excess Return 4%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, regardless of the cycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest expected growth rates as forecasted by analysts[6] - The spread of expected growth advantage differences (Δgf) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015[34] Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest actual growth rates, particularly during transition and growth periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest actual growth rates (Δg)[6] - The spread of actual growth advantage differences (Δg) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in growth-dominant environments[36] Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE residuals[6] - The spread of ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns from 2016 to 2020, with weaker performance since 2021[39] Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+ROE scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+ROE scores[6] - The spread of DP+ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+BP scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+BP scores[6] - The spread of DP+BP advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[46] Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, concentrated in stagnation and recession periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores[6] - The spread of PB+SIZE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[48] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[49] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Growth (gf)**: - Cable: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongtian Technology, average market cap 21.791 billion yuan, 3-month performance 49.62%[34] - Cement: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Conch Cement, average market cap 17.929 billion yuan, 3-month performance 12.71%[34] - Glass Fiber: 6 stocks, largest weight stock China Jushi, average market cap 26.657 billion yuan, 3-month performance 63.67%[34] - Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials: 17 stocks, largest weight stock Northern Rare Earth, average market cap 31.018 billion yuan, 3-month performance 98.77%[34] - White Goods III: 10 stocks, largest weight stock Midea Group, average market cap 113.675 billion yuan, 3-month performance -1.21%[34] - **Actual Growth (g)**: - Integrated Circuits: 104 stocks, largest weight stock Cambricon-U, average market cap 45.058 billion yuan, 3-month performance 42.93%[37] - PCB: 38 stocks, largest weight stock Shenghong Technology, average market cap 27.163 billion yuan, 3-month performance 112.10%[37] - Tungsten: 4 stocks, largest weight stock Xiamen Tungsten, average market cap 30.523 billion yuan, 3-month performance 69.26%[37] - Lithium Battery Equipment: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Lead Intelligent, average market cap 11.731 billion yuan, 3-month performance 60.15%[37] - Weapons and Equipment III: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Great Wall Military Industry, average market cap 21.307 billion yuan, 3-month performance 80.22%[37] - **Profitability (ROE)**: - Beer: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Tsingtao Brewery, average market cap 26.758 billion yuan, 3-month performance -3.94%[39] - Liquor: 20 stocks, largest weight stock Kweichow Moutai, average market cap 162.722 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.12%[39] - Non-dairy Beverages: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Eastroc Beverage, average market cap 32.754 billion yuan, 3-month performance -4.45%[39] - Network Connection and Tower Setup: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongji Xuchuang, average market cap 64.299 billion yuan, 3-month performance 202.29%[39] - Building Decoration III: 28 stocks, largest weight stock Gold Mantis, average market cap 3.436 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.42%[39] - **Quality Dividend (DP+ROE)**: - Automotive Motor Control: 15

新疆伊力特实业股份有限公司关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 证券简称：伊力特 股票代码：600197 公告编号：2025-040 新疆伊力特实业股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●会议召开时间：2025 年 9 月 10 日（周三）上午 11:00—12:00 ●会议地点：上海证券报·中国证券网路演中心 https://roadshow.cnstock.com/ ●会议召开方式：网络互动方式 ●问题征集方式：投资者可在 2025 年 9 月 10 日前，以文字形式提交问题发送至公司 投资者关系邮箱 yilitedm@163.com，公司将在说明会上就投资者普遍关注的问题进行 解答交流。 新疆伊力特实业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 28 日在上海 证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)披露《新疆伊力特实业股份有限公司 2025 年半年 度报告》。为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 ...

2025年9月3日，山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司召开第八届董事会第七十七次会议，审议通过董事会换 届选举相关议案。董事会同意提名袁清茂等6人为第九届非独立董事候选人，周培玉等4人为第九届独立 董事候选人，任期自股东大会选举通过之日起三年。候选人任职资格均已通过审查，独立董事候选人资 格获上交所备案审核无异议。在新一届董事就任前，第八届董事会成员将继续履职。公告还披露了各位 候选人简历及持股等情况，除刘卫华持有公司1400股A股普通股外，其他候选人均未持股，且大多符合 任职条件。 ...

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.98% on September 3, with Yili Te leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed varied performance, with the following notable changes: - Shede Liquor: Closed at 67.25, up 0.13% [1] - Kweichow Moutai: Closed at 1480.55, down 0.72% with a trading volume of 45,000 shares and a transaction value of 6.656 billion [1] - Wuliangye: Closed at 126.62, down 1.51% with a trading volume of 302,900 shares and a transaction value of 3.883 billion [1] - Yili Te: Closed at 15.56, down 3.35% with a trading volume of 78,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.25 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 726 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 479 million [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Shede Liquor: Net inflow from institutional investors was 59.79 million, while retail investors had a net outflow of 17.44 million [3] - Kweichow Moutai: Experienced a net outflow of 14 million from institutional investors [3] - Yili Te: Had a net outflow of 2.68 million from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significance of the "Cambrian moment" in the A-share market, marked by the rise of domestic AI chip company Cambrian Technology, which briefly surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-valued stock in A-shares [1][3] - The rise of Cambrian Technology symbolizes a shift in the capital market from traditional consumption to technology-driven growth, indicating a broader industrial upgrade [3][4] - Historical patterns suggest that surpassing Kweichow Moutai often signals a market peak, raising questions about whether this transition represents a new era or merely a high point in the current market cycle [3][5] Group 2 - The current bull market is characterized by a transition from old to new economic drivers, with a focus on technology innovation as a key theme [4][5] - The market has seen rapid increases in index levels, with significant trading volumes, indicating strong investor interest and potential volatility [5][6] - The article emphasizes that the bull market is not at its peak yet, as historical data shows that the current market duration is shorter than previous bull markets, suggesting more room for growth [9][10] Group 3 - The article outlines three foundational elements supporting the ongoing bull market: policy support, strategic transformation, and capital flow adjustments [6][7] - Policy measures include macroeconomic strategies aimed at combating deflation and stimulating investment through capital market activation [6] - The shift in strategy from defensive to proactive measures in response to trade and technology challenges reflects a more confident approach to economic management [7] Group 4 - Technical indicators suggest that the current market is in a mid-bull phase, characterized by slower growth, structural differentiation, and increased volatility [8][9] - The article highlights that the market has not yet reached a peak, as evidenced by the lack of widespread investor enthusiasm and the ongoing structural adjustments within various sectors [13][14] Group 5 - Short-term risks include profit-taking pressures, valuation bubbles in certain sectors, and a lack of clear macroeconomic narratives to drive future growth [14][15] - The article advises investors to focus on themes of technological transformation and geopolitical dynamics while being cautious of overvalued sectors [15][16] Group 6 - Future variables impacting the market include the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could influence capital flows and currency stability [17][18] - The potential for coordinated monetary easing globally may provide additional support for equity markets, particularly in the context of domestic policy measures aimed at stimulating growth [18]

今年，白酒行业还在探底过程中。 21世纪经济报道记者统计21家白酒上市公司半年报注意到，今年上半年有15家业绩出现倒退，仅有6家保持了正增 长，分别是贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、金徽酒——几乎都是名酒。 过去几年高增长的白酒股，今年难见踪影。 | | | 白酒股2025年半年报增长表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | H1营收(亿元) | 同比增长 | H1归母净利润(亿元) | 同比增长 | | | | 第一梯队 领跑行业 | | | | 贵州茅台 | 893.89 | 9.16% | 454.03 | 8.89% | | 山西汾酒 | 239.64 | 5.35% | 85.05 | 1.13% | | 五粮液 | 527.71 | 4.19% | 194.92 | 2.28% | | | | 第二梯队 保持增长 | | | | | H1营收(亿元) | 同比增长 | H1归母净利润(亿元) | 同比增长 | | 古井贡酒 | 138.80 | 0.54% | 36.62 | 2.49% | | 老白干 | 24.81 | 0.48% | 3. ...

Group 1: Event Overview - The Fourth China (Macau) International High-Quality Consumption Expo and Hengqin World Bay Area Forum was held from September 3 to 7, showcasing an innovative "one exhibition, two locations" model in Hengqin and Macau [1] - The expo aims to promote high-quality consumption and international trade cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on meeting people's high-quality material and spiritual needs [1] Group 2: Participating Companies and Products - Eight companies from Jiangxi participated, showcasing high-end ceramics and agricultural products, with a focus on cultural and artistic value [2] - The company "Qiaogeng Renjia" presented green pickled vegetables with low nitrite levels, targeting the growing demand for healthy and organic products in the Greater Bay Area [3] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The event provided a platform for domestic brands to expand internationally, with companies like Guojizhi and China Gold leveraging Macau's status as a free port to enhance their global presence [4][5] - The Greater Bay Area's high-quality consumption environment is seen as a rapid channel for domestic agricultural products to reach international markets, with logistics solutions enabling quick delivery to locations like Singapore [5] Group 4: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Health Products - China National Pharmaceutical Group showcased a range of health products, emphasizing the Greater Bay Area as a key market for biomedicine and health consumption [6] - Companies like Meikangxing are focusing on internationalizing traditional Chinese medicine, utilizing the expo to break cultural barriers and expand into Southeast Asia and Portuguese-speaking countries [7]

Group 1: Event Overview - The Fourth China (Macau) International High-Quality Consumption Expo and Hengqin World Bay Area Forum was held from September 3 to 7, showcasing an innovative "one exhibition, two locations" model in Hengqin and Macau [1] - The expo aims to promote high-quality consumption and international trade cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, featuring quality enterprises from various sectors including ceramics, liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, jewelry, and agricultural products [1][4] Group 2: Participation and Products - Eight enterprises from Jiangxi participated, focusing on high-end ceramics and agricultural specialties, with products like high-end tea sets and low-nitrite pickled vegetables [2][3] - The event highlighted the demand for personalized and culturally rich products in the Greater Bay Area, with companies like Yuanqi Ceramics and Qiaogeng Renjia showcasing unique craftsmanship [2][3] Group 3: International Trade and Market Expansion - Companies like Guojizhi and China Gold leveraged Macau's status as a free port to expand their international presence, particularly in the Portuguese-speaking markets [4][5] - The expo serves as a platform for Chinese brands to enhance their global influence and promote traditional culture, with a focus on high-quality agricultural products and health-oriented goods [5][7] Group 4: Technological Integration and Innovation - China Machinery Group showcased technological solutions for logistics and cold chain distribution, emphasizing the dual output of products and technology [6] - The event facilitated connections between enterprises and global customers, promoting innovation and market potential in the Greater Bay Area [6] Group 5: Traditional Medicine and Health Products - The event marked a shift in traditional Chinese medicine's internationalization strategy, moving from relying on foreign channels to establishing direct international trade routes [7][8] - Companies like Guoyao Group presented a range of health products, aiming to deepen international cooperation and expand into Southeast Asian and Portuguese-speaking markets [7][8] Group 6: Cultural and Culinary Showcase - The expo featured a diverse array of cultural and culinary products, including traditional handicrafts and regional specialties from various provinces [11][13] - High-quality alcoholic beverages from both domestic and international brands were showcased, highlighting the rich cultural heritage and innovation in the beverage industry [14]