1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The performance of non - ferrous metals is diverging. The Iran geopolitical situation dominates the capital market sentiment. The Fed's interest - rate decision and inflation expectations impact non - ferrous metals. China's post - holiday demand shows marginal improvement, but the future foreign trade situation is uncertain [12]. - High oil prices are constraining the Fed's monetary policy. There is an increasing risk of stagflation, causing risk assets to be sold off. Copper is affected by liquidity and market sentiment in the short - term but is more resilient than gold and silver. In the long - term, rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, and copper's price center is expected to rise [3][15]. - Geopolitical uncertainties affect zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless - steel prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation and price trends [5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The Iran geopolitical situation dominates the capital market. The Fed's non - interest - rate cut and inflation expectations bring pressure to non - ferrous metals. China's post - holiday demand shows marginal improvement, but foreign trade is uncertain. Energy cost increases support marginal costs, and demand orders are under observation [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Short - term price is under pressure but has long - term upward potential. Support is at 92000 - 93000 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. Recommend buying hedging in the far - month and using option strategies [3][4][15]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in consolidation. Support is at 22400 - 22600, and resistance is at 24000 - 24200. Pay attention to the continuation of the dollar's decline and downstream demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips. Alumina is recommended to wait and see or take a short - term bearish view. Recycled aluminum alloy is recommended to wait and see or take a short - term bullish view [6][17]. - **Tin**: Wait and see or take a short - term bullish view. Pay attention to capital sentiment, mine supply, and macro factors. Support is at 300000 - 320000, and resistance is at 380000 - 400000 [7][17]. - **Lead**: Prices are in a range. Support is at 16200 - 16400, and resistance is at 16800 - 17000. Pay attention to demand recovery and inventory changes [8][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by geopolitical uncertainties and Indonesian policies. They are recommended to buy on dips. Nickel's support is at 130000 - 132000, and resistance is at 140000 - 142000. Stainless - steel's support is at 13500 - 13600, and resistance is at 14500 - 15000 [9][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 95350 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and zinc closed at 23070 yuan/ton with a 0.59% change [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the net long - short position difference of industrial silicon (SI2605) is - 19417, with 2158 net long changes and - 3299 net short changes [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 95730 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22830 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Graphs related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, are presented [25][27][30][33][36][37][41][43][45][47][49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Graphs related to the arbitrage of each metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread, are presented [51][54][56][60][62][64][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Graphs related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes, are presented [67][71][73][74].

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.09 bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.10 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.38 with a 7.00 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.55 with a 0.50 bp decrease [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.51 with a 0.20 bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.43 with a 0.50 bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.70 with a 0.30 bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.97 with a 0.05 bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.33 with a 6.00 bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 2240 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2110 billion yuan as 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase matured [3] Group 2: Market Commentary - The inter - bank market liquidity remains stable and loose, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 around 1.32%. The central bank will conduct 5000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on March 25, 2026 [4] - The macro news was calm yesterday, and the stock index rebounded and then filled the gap. External shocks still exist, but due to the marginal change in the US attitude and the possible directional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, there is a short - term breathing and easing window for the capital market. The probability of a short - term over - sold rebound of the stock index has increased. In the domestic market, after the sharp decline, the possibility of policy support has risen, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited. In the long - term, the stock index is still bullish [6] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Data - The CSI 300 fell 1.32% to 4477.5, the SSE 50 fell 1.22% to 2824.7, the CSI 500 fell 1.62% to 7642.1, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.44% to 7639.4. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 19571 billion yuan, a decrease of 2359 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with the energy metals sector rising against the trend and sectors such as insurance, wind power equipment, and photovoltaic equipment leading the decline [5] - The trading volume and positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while the trading volume of IM decreased and its positions increased [5] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM all showed different degrees of premium or discount in different contracts [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 27, 2026 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Futures Contracts Outlook in March 2026**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 are expected to be weak and volatile, with specific resistance and support levels [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, etc. futures have different trends, with some being weak and volatile, and some having a wide - range of fluctuations, along with their respective resistance and support levels [2]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are expected to be strong and have a wide - range of fluctuations, and are likely to hit new highs [2]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Such as alumina, iron ore, etc., have different trends and corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - **Futures Contracts Outlook on March 27, 2026**: - Stock index futures are likely to be weak and volatile, with specific resistance and support levels for each contract [17]. - Gold, silver, copper, and other futures are also expected to have corresponding trends and levels [32][38][45]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Diplomatic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand; Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Schertzma to discuss economic and trade cooperation [5]. - **Domestic Policy News**: The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement and enterprise compliance guidance [5]. - **International News**: US President Trump announced a state visit to China; the US postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities; the US is formulating military options against Iran; Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal; Iranian President Pezeshkian expressed the desire to end the war; the OECD released an economic outlook report [5][6][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the continued jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Exchange Policy**: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice on trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [9]. - **Futures Price Movements**: International precious metal futures generally fell; US oil and Brent oil futures rose; London base metals mostly fell; Iraqi oil production decreased due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; the Turkish central bank sold gold [9][10][11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures on March 26**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [13][14]. - **Stock Market on March 26**: A - shares, the Hong Kong stock market, US stocks, and European stocks all closed down [14][15][16]. - **Analysis of Various Futures Contracts**: Each futures contract's performance on March 26 and the expected trends in March 2026 and on March 27, 2026 are analyzed, including gold, silver, copper, and other futures [32][38][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commitment of Shenwan Hongyuan Futures Company to social responsibility through a donation of school uniforms to students in rural Gansu Province, emphasizing the importance of supporting education and youth development [1][5]. Group 1: Donation Event - The donation event took place at Qingjiang Yizhong School in Taipingdian Town, Huining County, where students received new school uniforms, bringing joy and gratitude to their faces [3]. - A student expressed happiness upon receiving the new uniform, promising to cherish the warmth and excel in studies to give back to society [3]. - School leaders expressed heartfelt thanks to Shenwan Futures, noting that the donated uniforms not only improved the students' appearance but also warmed the hearts of teachers and students [3]. Group 2: Corporate Social Responsibility - Shenwan Futures integrates social responsibility into its corporate development, actively participating in rural revitalization and educational support initiatives [5]. - The school uniform donation is a concrete manifestation of the company's concern for education in underprivileged areas and its commitment to youth development [5]. - The company plans to continue its philanthropic efforts, expanding its support initiatives to ensure the growth and development of children in assisted regions [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment has emerged, potentially reducing the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2606 contract likely to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8] - Silver prices are also falling, similar to gold. The Ag2606 contract is expected to trade in a range of 16300 yuan/kilogram to 17300 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He denied rushing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that US military operations against Iran continue and that Iran is seeking to restart negotiations. Trump warned Iran to take the peace agreement seriously or face severe consequences [1] - Economic data: US initial jobless claims increased by 5000 to 210,000 last week, in line with market expectations. Continuing jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level in nearly two years. The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth of 2.9% in 2026 and a slight increase to 3% in 2027. US economic growth is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, far higher than the Fed's expectation [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 26, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1014.50 yuan/gram and closed at 995.98 yuan/gram, a change of -1.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 991.18 yuan/gram and closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, a 1.60% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 26, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 18,089.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,472.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -3.53% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 775,118 lots, and the open interest was 219,990 lots. In the night session, it opened at 16,938 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,841 yuan/kilogram, a 3.61% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 26, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.416%, a change of +0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.43%, a change of +0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, long positions decreased by 1201 lots, and short positions increased by 3863 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 438,419 lots, a change of -17.17% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, long positions increased by 3101 lots, and short positions increased by 3055 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,206,162 lots, a change of -19.40% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.42 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,409 tons, a decrease of 105 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 26, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 8.51 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 189.16 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was approximately 57.00, a change of 1.82% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.26, a change of -1.42% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 26, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 85,694 kilograms, a change of 6.55% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 429,700 kilograms, a change of -5.95% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations in the Middle East, inflation expectations, cross - quarter funding, unchanged LPR, and uncertainties in foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and global trade uncertainties [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00% with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.94, with a day - on - day increase of 0.32 and a growth rate of 0.32%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9184, with a day - on - day increase of 0.012 and a growth rate of 0.17%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.44, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.21%. DR007 is 1.44, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.06%. R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.40%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.40% [10]. 3.2 Treasury and Treasury Futures Market Overview Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury futures, the price change rate of each treasury futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury futures variety, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury futures variety [12][13][17]. 3.3 Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Aspect**: From January to February, the fiscal operation started smoothly. General public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 3.6% year - on - year. The revenue side shows that enterprise - related taxes performed better than the household sector. VAT increased by 4.7%, while consumption tax and individual income tax declined, indicating weak household consumption. Government fund revenue decreased by 16% year - on - year due to the drag of land transfer, and expenditure increased by 16% year - on - year due to the accelerated issuance of special bonds. The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of the real estate and consumption sectors is not yet solid [2]. - **Financial Aspect**: In February, the overall financial data showed the characteristics of "stable total amount and differentiated structure". The credit growth rate continued to decline to 6.0%, the social financing growth rate remained flat at 8.2%, M1 rebounded to 5.9% driven by the Spring Festival dislocation and unexpected consumption, and M2 remained flat at 9.0% due to increased fiscal expenditure. In terms of structure, medium - and long - term corporate loans increased year - on - year under the pre - emptive policy, but household credit demand continued to be weak, especially the medium - and long - term loans showed a net decrease again, indicating that the willingness of the real economy to increase leverage still needs to be repaired [2]. - **Central Bank Operation**: On March 26, 2026, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 224 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market**: The repurchase rates of the main tenors 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.320%, 1.438%, 1.506%, and 1.503% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [2]. 3.4 Spread Situation Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each treasury futures variety, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [31][32][34]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [42][44]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [53][57]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][64]. 3.9 Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The repurchase rate has declined, and the price of treasury futures is oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Liquidity Overview - On March 26, 2026, the stock index sector had a trading volume of 649.739 billion yuan, a -17.30% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1396.361 billion yuan, a -2.15% change; the trading - position ratio was 45.49% [1]. - The treasury bond sector had a trading volume of 281.776 billion yuan, a +2.05% change; the position amount was 856.887 billion yuan, a -0.25% change; the trading - position ratio was 32.10% [1]. - The base metal sector had a trading volume of 468.475 billion yuan, a -19.13% change; the position amount was 594.079 billion yuan, a -0.94% change; the trading - position ratio was 81.58% [1]. - The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 765.085 billion yuan, a -17.18% change; the position amount was 404.927 billion yuan, a -1.62% change; the trading - position ratio was 224.89% [1]. - The energy and chemical sector had a trading volume of 904.303 billion yuan, a -14.98% change; the position amount was 551.731 billion yuan, a +2.13% change; the trading - position ratio was 158.81% [1]. - The agricultural product sector had a trading volume of 318.461 billion yuan, a -5.46% change; the position amount was 659.762 billion yuan, a +1.58% change; the trading - position ratio was 45.58% [1]. - The black building materials sector had a trading volume of 188.389 billion yuan, a -24.01% change; the position amount was 338.394 billion yuan, a +0.89% change; the trading - position ratio was 51.31% [2]. II. Figures in the Report - There are multiple figures showing various data such as trading - position ratios, trading volume change rates, position amounts, and price changes of different sectors and varieties, including stock index, treasury bond, metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Iran situation and oil prices are currently the main factors driving commodity price fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - energy sectors such as the non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors and oil prices. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - narrative changes due to rising inflation and recession risks. The report suggests going long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran - US peace talks are at an impasse, and the situation in the Middle East has escalated. The main affected commodities are crude oil, LPG, and shipping. Rising oil prices have driven the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a longer time, oil prices and corresponding sectors may rise further. The disruption of natural gas supply in the Middle East may have a more profound impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1] Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged but may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is achieved. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate at 2%, but its policy stance has become tougher. The rise in oil prices, cost increases, and the increase in global interest - rate hike expectations have formed a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2] Domestic Policy and Economic Situation - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. China's economic data shows a mixed picture, with positive performance in exports, industrial added value, and consumer goods retail, but negative performance in real estate investment and sales [3] Commodity Sector Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity price fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors and oil prices. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves, but there may still be a supply gap. Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products. The EU has simplified some natural gas import rules, and Russia is considering an early gas cut - off to Europe. The oilseed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5] News - US House Speaker Johnson said the Iran war is "nearly over and the goal has been achieved", but the Trump administration is reported to be sending ground troops to the Middle East. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran has demonstrated control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Parliament is seeking a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia's President Putin signed a decree to restrict gold exports from May 1 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.34% at yesterday's close. The intensive release of battle reports and follow - up plans by both sides of the US - Iran conflict and the Fed's interest - rate decision have disturbed the capital market. Global stock indexes have declined significantly, and emerging markets have seen larger drops. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline. The view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors yesterday. The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 26, with a net injection of 211 billion yuan. The current macro - economic situation is in a good development stage, which is negative for the bond market. In the short term, it is mainly oscillating with a bearish bias, and long - term interest rates are more under pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable due to the support of the capital market. The view on treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, IH fell 0.89% (from 2,830.0 to 2,804.8), IF fell 1.21% (from 4,450.0 to 4,396.0), IC fell 1.54% (from 7,530.0 to 7,413.8), and IM fell 1.36% (from 7,477.4 to 7,375.6) [2]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.22% (from 2,859.5 to 2,824.7), the CSI 300 Index fell 1.32% (from 4,537.5 to 4,477.5), the CSI 500 Index fell 1.62% (from 7,767.7 to 7,642.1), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.44% (from 7,751.2 to 7,639.4) [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.02% (from 102.49 to 102.51), TF rose 0.06% (from 105.91 to 105.97), T rose 0.08% (from 108.16 to 108.25), and TL rose 0.22% (from 111.18 to 111.43) [2]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.27, 1.14, 0.84, and 0.65 respectively [2]. 3. Market News - The Ministry of National Defense spokesman stated that the key to resolving the current crisis in the Middle East lies in an immediate cease - fire and a return to the negotiation table to avoid further escalation of the situation [3]. 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [5][7][9]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][14][16][18]. 4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB (1M and 3M), the US dollar index, the euro - US dollar exchange rate, the pound - US dollar exchange rate, and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [21][22][24][26][27].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term due to the game between weak current reality and strong long - term expectations, but the high domestic inventory may suppress the upward space [11]. - The corn price is in a high - level oscillation pattern, and market sentiment is affected by external markets and policy rumors. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy trends [11]. - The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to the contradiction between the support from oil mills and weak consumption [11]. - The live - pig market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - The egg price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - The cotton price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. - The caustic soda export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - The urea price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. - The precious metals prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - The copper and aluminum prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - The alumina supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - The ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - The lithium carbonate price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. - For options, trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,216.00 | 1,230.00 | -14.0 | -1.138% | | Coke | 1,740.50 | 1,761.00 | -20.50 | -1.164% | | Natural Rubber | 16,505.00 | 16,460.00 | 45.0 | 0.273% | | No. 20 Rubber | 13,690.00 | 13,635.00 | 55.0 | 0.403% | | Plastic | 8,800.00 | 8,767.00 | 33.0 | 0.376% | | Polypropylene (PP) | 9,208.00 | 9,120.00 | 88.0 | 0.965% | | PTA | 6,748.00 | 6,778.00 | -30.0 | -0.443% | | PVC | 5,613.00 | 5,650.00 | -37.0 | -0.655% | | Asphalt | 4,490.00 | 4,543.00 | -53.0 | -1.167% | | Methanol | 3,229.00 | 3,202.00 | 27.0 | 0.843% | | Ethylene Glycol | 5,109.00 | 5,058.00 | 51.0 | 1.008% | | Styrene | 10,343.00 | 10,046.00 | 297.0 | 2.956% | | Glass | 1,036.00 | 1,036.00 | 0 | 0 | | Crude Oil | 744.60 | 733.10 | 11.50 | - | | Fuel Oil | 4,445.00 | 4,393.00 | 52.0 | 1.184% | | Soda Ash | 1,227.00 | 1,225.00 | 2.0 | 0.163% | | Pulp | 5,170.00 | 5,156.00 | 14.0 | 0.272% | | LPG | 6,550.00 | 6,541.00 | 9.0 | 0.138% | | Caustic Soda | 2,469.00 | 2,509.00 | -40.0 | -1.594% | | PX | 9,738.00 | 9,774.00 | -36.0 | -0.368% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No. 1 | 4,591.00 | 4,627.00 | -36.0 | -0.778% | | Yellow Soybean No. 2 | 3,739.00 | 3,746.00 | -7.0 | -0.187% | | Soybean Meal | 2,937.00 | 2,952.00 | -15.0 | -0.508% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,319.00 | 2,344.00 | -25.0 | -1.067% | | Soybean Oil | 8,660.00 | 8,646.00 | 14.0 | 0.162% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,844.00 | 9,840.00 | 4.0 | 0.041% | | Palm Oil | 9,648.00 | 9,614.00 | 34.0 | 0.354% | | White Sugar | 5,441.00 | 5,463.00 | -22.0 | -0.403% | | Yellow Corn | 2,365.00 | 2,376.00 | -11.0 | -0.463% | | Corn Starch | 2,759.00 | 2,765.00 | -6.0 | -0.217% | | Cotton No. 1 | 15,355.00 | 15,420.00 | -65.0 | -0.422% | | Cotton Yarn | 21,495.00 | 21,640.00 | -145.0 | -0.670% | [4] 3.3 Macro - News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication [7]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Iran put forward four conditions for a cease - fire [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [9]. - 96 central departments publicly disclosed their 2026 budgets, and the "Three Public Expenses" budget decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the game between short - term supply pressure and long - term supply tightening expectations. The upper pressure is around 5500 yuan, and the lower support is around 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy. The lower support is in the 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton range [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The lower support is around 8000 yuan, and the upper pressure is the previous high [11]. - **Live - Pig**: The market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - **Ferroalloy**: The prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24].