Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to return to 4500 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may gradually rise after the adjustment, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. US soybean oil has a downward space in the short term, while domestic soybean oil may see a decrease in inventory and a rise in the spot basis in the future [1]. Corn Industry - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation stage, and the medium - term situation remains weak. It is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. The domestic sugar price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly around 5500 - 5700 [7]. Cotton Industry - The cotton price center has risen, but there is no obvious upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [8]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stabilizing with slight fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of the 11 and 01 contracts [9]. Meal Industry - The domestic meal prices have limited downward space. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range [11]. Egg Industry - Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 29, Y2601 decreased by 0.52%, and the palm oil futures price also showed certain fluctuations. The price of soybean oil and palm oil in the spot market also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production growth is lower than export growth, and the market expects limited inventory growth at the end of August. The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil is unclear, and the domestic demand for soybean oil is improving [1]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of corn 2511 increased by 0.27%, and the price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.32%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Northeast corn traders have insufficient inventory, but there is supplementary auction grain. Spring corn in North China is gradually on the market, and the new - season corn has a large expected increase in production. The demand side has relatively sufficient inventory and weak purchasing enthusiasm [2]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.04%, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.97%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, but the Brazilian sugar production may be revised down. The 09 contract is affected by beet warehouse receipts, and the demand side is relatively stable during the double festivals [7]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.73%, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified, the inventory is relatively tight before the new cotton is on the market, the demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious [8]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of live pigs 2511 decreased by 0.26%, and the price of live pigs 2601 decreased by 0.50%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of pigs is stabilizing, the slaughter volume has increased, and the market demand is expected to improve with the approach of the school season and cooler weather, but there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals [9]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of soybean meal M2601 increased by 0.53%, and the price of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices, spreads, and crushing margins also changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, the Sino - US negotiation has no substantial progress, and the domestic supply concern has eased [11]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of egg 09 contract increased by 0.28%, and the price of egg 10 contract increased by 0.31%. The spot prices, spreads, and related indicators also changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in September may decrease, and the demand will weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival [15].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight upward trend observed on September 2, 2023, indicating market volatility and potential investment opportunities in the cotton sector [1] Cotton Futures Market Review - On September 2, 2023, ICE cotton futures opened at 66.63 cents per pound and are currently at 66.73 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.30% increase, with an intraday high of 66.86 cents and a low of 66.59 cents [1] - On September 1, 2023, the opening, highest, lowest, and closing prices for U.S. cotton were all recorded at 66.53 cents per pound, with a slight increase of 0.02% [1] Cotton Market News - As of August 30, 2023, Brazil's cotton harvesting rate reached 87.6%, a significant increase from 60.3% the previous week and higher than the 72.8% recorded during the same period last year, as well as above the five-year average of 86.5% [1] - On September 1, 2023, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6,320, a decrease of 194 from the previous trading day [1] - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) on September 1, 2023, was 15,479 yuan per ton, which is an increase of 151 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream energy prices have a slight correction, and sectors such as steel and building materials are relatively weak. The steel market is in a bottoming - out stage with slow demand recovery and supply pressure. Although the cost side has strong support, factors like increased social inventory and cautious terminal procurement restrict steel price rebounds [1]. - The mid - stream high - tech manufacturing industry continues to improve. In Jiangxi, the high - tech manufacturing industry shows strong momentum, with the sales of the new energy and equipment manufacturing industrial chains increasing by 20.9% and 17.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The manufacturing industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading towards high - end, intelligent, and green directions driven by policy support and technological innovation [1]. - Downstream consumption sees local governments and enterprises jointly issuing large - scale consumption subsidy vouchers and launching intensive theme promotion activities to seize the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". For example, Chongqing launched the "2025 Autumn Consumption Season" on September 1st, planning to invest over 1.7 billion yuan in promotion funds and carry out more than 500 consumption promotion activities. Guangdong will issue 20 million yuan in cultural and tourism consumption vouchers on September 12th [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Mid - level Overview - Upstream: Energy prices slightly correct, and steel and building materials are weak. The steel market is in a difficult situation with slow demand recovery and supply pressure [1]. - Mid - stream: High - tech manufacturing in Jiangxi shows strong growth, and the overall manufacturing industry is upgrading [1]. - Downstream: Local governments and enterprises promote consumption through subsidy vouchers and promotion activities [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Production Industry - Not detailed in the text other than the mid - stream high - tech manufacturing situation mentioned above 3.2.2. Service Industry - Not detailed in the text 3.3. Industry Pricing - PE (TTM) and PB values, as well as their trends and quantiles, are provided for various industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction. For example, the PE (TTM) of the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry is 53.6, with a quantile of 100%, and the PB is 4.78, with a quantile of 98% [32]. - Industry credit spreads are presented for different industries, including their values at different time points (last year, one quarter ago, one month ago, last week, this week) and quantiles. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week is 50.46, with a quantile of 2.90% [33]. 3.4. Sub - industry Tracking 3.4.1. Generalized Agriculture - Palm oil and corn prices continue to decline, while cotton prices continue to rise. Apple and cotton inventories decline cyclically [2]. 3.4.2. Chemical Industry - The PTA price goes up, and the urea inventory goes up [4]. 3.4.3. Non - ferrous Industry - The zinc price slightly declines, and the lead price goes up. The inventories of lead and copper decline cyclically [3]. 3.4.4. Ferrous Industry - All commodity prices in the ferrous industry slightly decline, and the inventories of coking coal and coke decline [3]. 3.4.5. Infrastructure Industry - The concrete price rebounds, and the cement price remains stable [5]. 3.4.6. Logistics and Transportation - Railway and road freight increase, while waterway freight volume decreases [7]. 3.4.7. Automobile Manufacturing - Not detailed in the text 3.4.8. Real Estate Industry - In key monitored cities this period, the sales of commercial housing in Chongqing, Nanchang, Qingdao, Jinan, and Zhengzhou decline significantly compared to the previous period [6].

Group 1 - Cotton futures are experiencing low volatility, with the main contract reported at 13,980.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.96% [1] - As of the end of July, China's cotton commercial inventory stands at 2.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 588,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 640,000 tons, indicating a low level compared to recent years [2] - The average price of 3128 cotton arriving at factories was 15,590 CNY/ton, an increase of 170.00 CNY/ton, while the price of 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 21,555 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the speed of cotton inventory reduction and the operating rates of yarn and weaving factories have not shown significant improvement, indicating weak terminal demand [3] - The domestic cotton market is facing tight supply, with the cash basis remaining strong despite recent increases in sliding tax quota issuance, while the textile market is still in the off-season with insufficient new orders [3] - Short-term expectations for Zheng cotton indicate a potential slight decline next week, with a focus on the range of 14,000 to 14,500 CNY/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's cotton imports increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, indicating a shift in demand dynamics due to domestic inventory changes [1] - The demand for high-quality cotton has risen, particularly for Australian cotton, as domestic supplies tighten [1] Import Data Summary - China's cotton import volume in July 2025 was 53,100 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 93.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 73.34% [1] - The ongoing reduction in domestic cotton inventory has led to an increased reliance on imports to meet supply needs [1] Trade Method Analysis - The proportion of cotton imports through processing trade methods continued to decline in July, marking the lowest share, while general trade methods saw an increase [1] - This trend is attributed to regulatory changes announced by customs authorities in May 2025, affecting the management of special customs supervision areas [1] Future Projections - In late August 2025, a quota of 200,000 tons for cotton imports under sliding tax processing trade will be issued, but the limited quota and specific requirements may restrict the ability of textile enterprises to utilize it effectively [1]

Information Summary - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - In the overseas market, the weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern. In the domestic market, the cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot price of cotton has decreased slightly, and the basis quotes for different regions are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - **Overseas Market**: The weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3.2. Industry News - In Hutubi County, Xinjiang, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually flocculating. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have almost completed the overhaul of their production equipment, which is expected to finish in mid-September. The funds and personnel for cotton purchase are also ready, and the purchase of new cotton is expected to start around September 20. During the purchase period, the local development and reform commission will strengthen supervision to ensure the interests of cotton farmers [9]. 3.3. Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19][28].