核心结论 我们认为，谷歌已形成"模型（Gemini）+加速器（TPU）+数据中心网络 （OCS）+场景（搜索+广告+Android 终端）"的 AI 全栈闭环，在 AI 时代 谷歌通过自研 TPU 与 OCS 的协同，显著提升规模化推理与集群互联效率， 并将大模型能力深度嵌入搜索、Chrome 与 Cloud 平台，兑现为云业务订单 与资本开支的加速扩张。 谷歌的模型层以 Gemini 系列大模型为核心，持续迭代推进纯文本、多模态 及代码等能力。Gemini 2.5 Pro 模型展现了卓越的多模态处理（文本、图像、 音频、视频）、长上下文理解与推理、编程与代码生成、复杂任务执行等综 合能力。此外，在图像、视频及世界模型等垂直领域，谷歌也已推出 Nano Banana, Veo 3，Genie 3 等领先的模型。完善的模型布局及强大的模型能力， 叠加与谷歌生态的无缝融合，驱动了使用量的显著增长。截至 25Q3，Gemini APP 月活跃用户数已超过 6.5 亿。而截至 10 月份，模型 Token 的月度调用量 达到了1,300万亿，一年内实现超过20倍的增长。而谷歌的下一代模型Gemini 3 预计将于年底 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of 26.29 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.322 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.41%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.24% to 1.404 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 5.15% to 1.460 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company's third-quarter revenue showed accelerated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 43.12% in Q3 alone, driven by the launch of new generation intelligent computing products and solutions [6][7]. - The subsidiary, Xinhua San, performed exceptionally well, achieving a revenue of 59.623 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 48.07% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.529 billion yuan, up 14.75% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved quarterly revenues of 20.790 billion yuan, 26.635 billion yuan, and 29.897 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.25%, 27.17%, and 43.12% [6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 13.72%, a decrease of 3.87 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 96.630 billion yuan, 116.390 billion yuan, and 135.688 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.954 billion yuan, 2.460 billion yuan, and 3.046 billion yuan [5][8]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.68 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of approximately 38.5, 30.6, and 24.7 [7][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ICT infrastructure industry, leveraging its "computing power × connectivity" synergy to capitalize on opportunities in the AI computing market [6][7]. - The company is actively developing next-generation ultra-node products and liquid cooling technologies to meet the demands of high-density computing clusters and high-power chips [7]. Subsidiary Performance - Xinhua San's revenue for Q3 was 23.219 billion yuan, a 67.79% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.678 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 77% [6][7]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the company's integrated AI empowerment platform and strong international business growth will be significant drivers for future development [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]

- The report highlights the reversal of the momentum style factor observed after the US-China summit, indicating a shift in market narrative and the end of the previous technology-driven bull market [14] - The leverage factor has shown significant upward movement since late September, reflecting market pricing of earnings recovery expectations [14] - The BARRA style factor analysis reveals that fundamental factors remain mixed, with value-oriented assets outperforming growth-oriented ones. High BP value stocks and those with strong investment quality and profitability are expected to deliver higher excess returns [23] - Transaction-related factors show that short-term momentum stocks performed well this week, while high volatility and high turnover stocks faced potential pullbacks. High beta stocks have recovered strongly from recent corrections [23] - Market capitalization factors, including size and non-linear size, experienced synchronized pullbacks, with non-linear size showing larger declines. The market may exhibit a barbell allocation pattern, favoring small-cap stocks in the short term [23]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, reflecting a positive outlook on AI investments and growth potential in the sector [12]. Core Insights - North American tech giants are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a strong focus on AI deployment. Google, Meta, and Microsoft have all raised their capital expenditure forecasts for the upcoming years, indicating robust growth in AI-related services and infrastructure [14][16][17]. - Google Cloud's revenue grew by 34% in Q3, reaching $15.2 billion, driven by strong demand for enterprise AI products. The Gemini Enterprise AI platform has over 2 million users across 700 companies [14][15]. - Meta plans to invest over $60 billion in AI technology and infrastructure by 2028, with a revised capital expenditure forecast of $70-72 billion for the current fiscal year [16]. - Microsoft's cloud revenue reached $49.1 billion, growing 26%, with AI functionalities seeing significant user engagement. The company is increasing its capital expenditures to support the growing demand for Azure services [17][18]. Summary by Sections North American Tech Giants' Capital Expenditure - Google expects capital expenditures to be between $91 billion and $93 billion for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $85 billion. Significant growth is anticipated for 2026 [16]. - Meta's capital expenditure forecast for the current fiscal year has been adjusted to $70-72 billion, with a notable increase expected for 2026 [16]. - Microsoft reported a capital expenditure of $34.9 billion in Q3, with half allocated to short-term assets like GPUs and CPUs to meet Azure demand [17][18]. AI Developments and User Engagement - Google's Gemini App has over 650 million monthly active users, with query volume tripling since Q2. The company processes over 1.3 trillion tokens monthly, a 20-fold increase within a year [15]. - Microsoft's AI features have 900 million active users, with the Copilot series exceeding 150 million monthly active users [17]. Domestic AI Progress - Alibaba is investing heavily in AI, with over 600 million downloads of its Tongyi Qianwen model and the largest AI open-source community in China, serving over 20 million users [19][20]. - The launch of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card super node by Inspur demonstrates advancements in computing power and efficiency, with a 20-fold increase in computing density compared to similar products [22][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on software companies showing signs of recovery and potential in AI agents, including Kingsoft Office, Deepin Technology, and others [26]. - Key players in computing power and custom AI agents include Cambricon, Hygon, Alibaba, Tencent, and various others across different sectors [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the convertible bond market experienced an obvious style shift, with the TMT sectors like computer, media, and communication cooling off, while the power equipment sector led the rise, and photovoltaic convertible bonds performed brightly. The valuation of debt - oriented convertible bonds was firm, outperforming equity - oriented ones. With the market rising in a volatile manner, the valuation in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range was significantly weak due to strong redemption expectations. The convertible bonds lagged behind the underlying stocks, with their gains less than half of the underlying stocks. Indicators such as the median convertible bond price, the premium rate per hundred yuan, and the yield to maturity have returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range since September. If they can break through effectively, the short - term upward trend of convertible bonds is expected to be strengthened [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - The convertible bond premium rate per hundred yuan is still in an oscillating trend, within the range of 2 times the standard deviation above and below the 250 - day average. As of the latest, with outliers retained, the market - wide convertible bond premium rate per hundred yuan is 35.7%, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the latest percentile is at the 93.8% percentile since 2017 [2][4]. - Compared with last week, the valuations of debt - oriented and low - parity convertible bonds were stronger, with both the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate rising, and prices slightly increasing. The valuations of equity - oriented and high - parity convertible bonds were weaker, with the conversion premium rate oscillating downward. The valuation in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range declined significantly, and its historical percentile was significantly lower than other parity ranges [2][8]. - This week, the median convertible bond price and the yield to maturity were reported at 133.30 yuan and - 6.82% respectively, changing by + 0.96 yuan and - 0.18% week - on - week. Their current percentile levels are at the 99.80% and 0.30% percentiles since 2017 [2][13]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Qibin Convertible Bond announced redemption, and Fenggong Convertible Bond announced non - redemption, with a strong redemption rate of 50%. Currently, there are 12 convertible bonds that have issued strong redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted. Among the non - delisted convertible bonds, the potential conversion or maturity balance of strongly redeemed and matured convertible bonds is 6 billion yuan. There are currently 40 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 9 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week [2][17][20]. 3.2.2 Downward Revision - This week, Aidi Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of the latest, 98 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 31 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 4 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [2][22]. 3.2.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of the latest, 7 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, and 5 are in the non - downward - revision period [2][25]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - This week, no convertible bond issued an issuance announcement. Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond have been issued and are waiting for listing. As of the latest, there are 7 convertible bonds at the approval - for - registration stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.9 billion yuan; and 7 at the listing - committee - approval stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.3 billion yuan [2][27].

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08%, while the North China 50 index fell by 3.79%, indicating significant market differentiation [6] - The market style showed a clear shift towards value and cyclical sectors, driven primarily by traditional energy and materials industries, with substantial profit improvements in the steel sector during Q3 providing solid performance support [6][7] - Future expectations for the A-share market suggest a continuation of structural trends supported by policy and liquidity, with a focus on "developing new productive forces" as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing anti-involution and technology [7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also saw an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.20%, reflecting significant internal differentiation [8] - The performance of the Hong Kong market was influenced by two main factors: increased correlation with the A-share market and strong earnings in energy and financial sectors benefiting from "dual carbon" policy expectations [8] - Looking ahead, the Hong Kong market is expected to navigate between "Chinese fundamentals" and "overseas liquidity," with energy and financial sectors likely to remain stabilizers, while technology stocks may face pressure from overseas market trends [8]

Group 1 - The short-term market structure indicates that technology growth has insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness, leading to high-level fluctuations while waiting for industrial trend catalysts to accumulate [1][5][6] - The recent narrow fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index and the wide fluctuations in technology growth reflect a lack of dominant structures to lead the market breakthrough [2][5][6] - The historical experience shows that when long-term cost-effectiveness is low, the difficulty of earning valuation money significantly increases, requiring continuous verification of industrial catalysts and high growth in performance to sustain effective upward trends [2][5][6] Group 2 - The mid-term market judgment maintains a "two-stage bull market" theory, with 2025's technology structure bull market being the first stage, and the spring of 2026 potentially marking a phase peak [7][8] - The market may face three challenges in spring 2026: verification of demand-side key periods, increased sensitivity to performance disturbances and liquidity shocks in low cost-effectiveness areas, and the need for time to wait for new structural highlights in the domestic technology industry [7][8] - The bull market is expected to have depth, with conditions for a comprehensive bull market becoming increasingly sufficient over time, and at least three mid-term returns yet to be realized [8] Group 3 - The economic direction for the next year is expected to evolve with a rotation in the fourth quarter, driven by the price increase cycle and the anticipated turning point in PPI [10] - The rotation of sectors will continue, with potential upward opportunities in the AI industry chain, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense industries [10] - The report highlights that the market has already begun to anticipate the economic improvement of 2026, with the electricity equipment sector nearing low cost-effectiveness and the price increase cycle showing short-term cost-effectiveness limitations [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The release of the Shuguang super node marks a significant breakthrough in domestic computing power, showcasing advantages over traditional intelligent computing methods through high-speed interconnection technology, which enhances bandwidth and reduces latency [6] - The Shuguang Scale X640 super node, launched on November 6, 2025, is the world's first 640-card single-cabinet super node, designed for training trillion-parameter models, improving performance by 30%-40% compared to traditional solutions [6] - Domestic computing power and super nodes are expected to continue achieving breakthroughs, with the Shuguang X640 demonstrating top-tier performance, efficiency, reliability, and openness in the AI computing system [6] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Zhongke Shuguang (603019, Buy), and others that are either rated or not rated [3] Industry Overview - The report focuses on the computer industry in China, highlighting advancements in domestic computing capabilities and the competitive landscape [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dapu Micro, has become the first unprofitable company to apply for an IPO on the ChiNext board, with its application accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on June 27, 2025, aiming for a market value of no less than 5 billion yuan and annual revenue of at least 500 million yuan [1][4]. Group 1: IPO and Market Position - Dapu Micro's IPO process is receiving significant market attention as it is the first unprofitable company to apply for listing on the ChiNext board [4]. - The company was valued at 6.81 billion yuan during its last funding round in December 2024 [3][6]. - Dapu Micro claims to rank fourth in the domestic enterprise SSD market with a market share of 6.4% in 2023, but its position has reportedly declined to fifth place in 2024 [8][11]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Dapu Micro's revenue for 2024 reached 962 million yuan, reflecting an 85.3% year-on-year growth, but this growth lagged behind the market's growth rate of 187.9% [11]. - The company's gross margin has fluctuated significantly, with values of -0.09%, -27.13%, and 27.28% from 2022 to 2024, indicating volatility in profitability [12]. - The company reported cumulative losses of 1.342 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with net profits of -534 million yuan, -617 million yuan, and -191 million yuan for the respective years [14]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Health - Dapu Micro's total debt surged to 588 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 180% increase from 210 million yuan in 2024, with short-term debt constituting 95.76% of the total [18][19]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 75.72% as of June 30, 2025, significantly higher than the industry average of 27.07% [18][20]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Operational Risks - Dapu Micro's reliance on a single supplier, Sipex International (Hong Kong) Limited, is concerning, with procurement from this supplier accounting for 84.49% to 66.26% of total purchases over the reporting periods [34][36]. - The company faces potential inventory risks, with inventory value rising from 234 million yuan in 2023 to 1.062 billion yuan in 2024, indicating challenges in managing stock levels [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - Dapu Micro anticipates achieving profitability by 2026, contingent on market conditions and demand for data center products [29][38]. - The company has faced scrutiny from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding its operational sustainability and the reasons for its continued losses [28][32].