Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report, but individual metal - specific outlooks are given [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the Fed's dovish remarks, the weakening dollar, and central banks' gold purchases. Silver will have a strong oscillation, affected by industrial demand and other metals' prices. Most base metals like copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum are expected to have short - term rebounds, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Despite positive US data, Fed officials' dovish stance and ongoing tariff negotiations led to gold and silver maintaining high - level oscillations [2] - **基本逻辑**: The risk of US economic recession is reduced, there are potential changes in the Fed's leadership and possible rate cuts, Japanese inflation shows mixed trends, and with large tariff uncertainties, gold has a long - term bullish outlook [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold may have short - term adjustments, but with the dollar's medium - term weakness, it has strong support around 760. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is recommended [3] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper strongly rebounded and returned to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. New smelter production has increased electrolytic copper output. Domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, and LME inventory accumulation has slowed. Downstream开工率 has increased, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the weak real - estate copper demand [6] - **策略推荐**: With expectations of industry reform and positive overseas economic data, short - term copper long positions should be held, and there is long - term confidence in copper. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78500, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc rose over 2% and broke through the oscillation range [8] - **产业逻辑**: Zinc ore supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and LME inventory has decreased. Downstream galvanizing enterprises'开工率 is affected by weak steel demand [8] - **策略推荐**: Short - term zinc long positions should be held cautiously, and some can take profits at high prices. In the long term, short - selling opportunities should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22500, 23500], and London zinc in the range of [2680, 2880] dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas uncertainties remain, production capacity has increased, inventory has risen, and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea, and short - term supply is tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to be loose [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000, 20900]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties exist, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [118000, 122000] [13] Carbonate Lithium - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and broke through 70,000 [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are eager to sell, and basis has weakened. Total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The new - energy vehicle market's growth has slowed, but the energy - storage market supports demand. There are many supply - side disturbances [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a range of [68000, 71000] [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, it is currently in a situation of both supply and demand being weak with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and the expectation of the peak season support lead prices. Considering domestic policies guiding the clearance of backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, market sentiment is positive, and short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong [1]. - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation trend is becoming apparent, showing a weak fundamental situation. However, due to strong market bullish sentiment and the news of clearing backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, short - term prices of Shanghai zinc are expected to be relatively strong, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.72%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.84%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 2.84%, and the open interest decreased by 2.64%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.33% [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 65.82%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 37.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.96%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply, resulting in some smelters reducing or halting production. The demand side is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.95% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract increased by 0.75%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.16%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 2.34%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 94.89%, and the open interest increased by 72.51%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.75% [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 59.12%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.95%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.32%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. In May 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate output was 120,800 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the total output from January to May was 579,200 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. As of July 17th, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and the limitation on smelter production due to raw material shortages has weakened. On the demand side, although downstream purchases increased slightly when zinc prices fell during the week, the overall weak terminal demand situation remains, and overall purchases are limited [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully issued its first super short-term financing bond for 2025, raising a total of 400 million RMB, as part of its plan to register and issue up to 1 billion RMB in super short-term financing bonds [1][1][1] Group 1: Financing Details - The company held its fourth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on December 30, 2024, where it approved the proposal to register and issue super short-term financing bonds [1][1] - The total planned issuance amount for the first super short-term financing bond is 400 million RMB, which has been fully raised and deposited into the company's designated account [1][1] - The issuance interest rate for the bond is set at 1.78% with a face value of 100 RMB [1][1] Group 2: Subscription Information - The subscription amount for the bond reached 765 million RMB, with 14 compliant subscription applications received [1][1] - The effective subscription amount was 515 million RMB, with 11 valid applications [1][1] - The highest subscription rate was 1.81%, while the lowest was 1.7% [1][1] Group 3: Underwriters - The book manager and lead underwriter for the bond issuance is China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., with China Everbright Bank Co., Ltd. serving as the co-lead underwriter [1][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.43% to $9,678/ton, and SHFE copper主力 rose 0.46% to 78,260 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. US retail sales in June alleviated concerns about consumer spending contraction. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while domestic social copper inventories decreased. Copper demand showed a short - term recovery, but the off - season led to weak consumption. There is no significant positive factor for copper, and its price trend is unclear. A 50% copper tariff may cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Guinea's policy on bauxite raised cost concerns. Domestic factors and low inventory levels supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to remain strong, and trading within the 20,000 - level range is recommended. The off - season effect is more obvious for aluminum alloy [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.5% to $15,065/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.72% to 120,490 yuan/ton. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. In the stainless - steel industry, inventories of different series changed, and in the new - energy industry, demand and production increased slightly. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policy impacts should be watched out for [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases in LME and SHFE copper. The US economic data influenced the market. Inventory changes were mixed, with an increase in overseas and a decrease in domestic social inventories. Demand recovered slightly but was still weak due to the off - season. The price trend is unclear, and a potential tariff may cause volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: All aluminum - related products trended strongly. Cost concerns from Guinea's policy and domestic factors supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to be strong, and the off - season affects aluminum alloy more [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases in LME and沪镍. Inventory decreases in LME and SHFE. Changes in stainless - steel and new - energy industry inventories and production. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policies may cause disturbances [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, including flat - water copper, scrap copper, etc. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories. Changes in LME0 - 3 premium, CIF提单, and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Price decreases in various lead products. Inventory increases in LME and上期所. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price increases in无锡 and南海 aluminum quotes. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price decreases in金川镍 and some nickel - related products. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 rose 0.3%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 fell 0.7%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience, Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity atmosphere is warm, which provides support for metal prices, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to factors such as the US copper tariff and overseas trade uncertainties [2][4]. - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum are affected by inventory changes and industrial conditions; lead and zinc are influenced by supply and demand balances and macro - monetary policies; tin and nickel are affected by production and downstream demand; and the prices of lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also subject to various factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.43% to $9678/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78260 yuan/ton. The price oscillated and rebounded [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1150 to 122150 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 to 4.2 million tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere is warm, but the US copper tariff expectation brings risks. The copper raw material shortage persists, but the marginal impact weakens. The price rebound is expected to be weak. The operation range of SHFE copper is 77500 - 78800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9550 - 9760 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum rose 0.52% to $2589/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20520 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is warm, but overseas trade is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply is expected to increase. The short - term price increase drive is weak, and it mainly rebounds with the commodity atmosphere. The operation range of SHFE aluminum is 20300 - 20650 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2550 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 0.28% to 16864 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 12 to 1974 dollars/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus. The domestic lead price is expected to run weakly [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22109 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2697 dollars/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 9.35 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate due to the strong overall commodity atmosphere [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price oscillated [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the short - term tin price is expected to oscillate weakly. The operation range of domestic tin price is 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin price is 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price oscillated [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The ferro - nickel price is expected to follow the decline of the ore price. The nickel price has a certain short - selling cost - performance, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index rose 0.78%, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.32% [13]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The production increased by 1.6% to 19115 tons, and the inventory increased by 1.3% to 142620 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side disturbances are frequent. The operation range of the LC2509 contract is 66200 - 69500 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.48% to 3079 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The mineral price is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the alumina over - capacity pattern remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.47% to 12730 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 million tons [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Although it is the traditional off - season, the market activity has increased after the price bottomed out. The price is expected to rise slightly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.18% to 19845 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 0.03 million tons to 2.83 million tons [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The price has a large upward resistance [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, with the implementation date possibly from late July to August 1st. COMEX copper rose 16% due to this news. However, the US has filled its annual rigid import gap for electrolytic copper, so the CL spread doesn't need to fully price in the 50% tariff in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether some countries get exemptions. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to the demand situation and consider far - month inter - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation for zinc, hold inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - Nickel supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports was abolished, concerns about ore - end disturbances eased. Continue to focus on the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink [6] - Stainless steel supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10] - Lead prices slightly declined this week. Supply and demand are both weak in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price stays above 17,200 due to macro - factors [12] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance. Demand is weak, and the LME inventory is at a low level but a turning point for inventory accumulation is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng. The market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate doesn't recover significantly, the industrial silicon futures are expected to oscillate [18] - Carbonate lithium futures prices rebounded from a low level. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A significant downward trend requires a large - scale accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot inventory [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 50, the premium/discount changed by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons [1] - **Market Impact of Tariff**: The US has filled its annual rigid import gap for copper. The 50% tariff may not need to be fully priced in the CL spread in the short term. South American countries' copper exports may be affected, and the high - premium in Southeast Asia and Europe may decline. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,550 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are balanced [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 100, and the LME inventory increased by 2,750 tons [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,500, and the LME inventory increased by 708 tons [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [10] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the lead price slightly declined, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,850 tons [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in July, and it is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the tin price fluctuated widely, and the LME inventory increased by 55 tons [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance, and demand is weak [14] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by 100, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 43 [18] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng, and the market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the SMM electric carbonate price increased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 548 [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [20]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2-11.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.52% to 40.03%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.21-6.21 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.41% to 24.45% and a year-on-year growth of 9.92% to 31.01% [4][5]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in market prices for tin, copper, and zinc, alongside effective cost reduction measures and production optimization [4][5]. - The company plans to produce 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc in 2025, with Q1 production figures showing 24,200 tons of tin, 24,400 tons of copper, and 33,300 tons of zinc [5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 48.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.21%. The projected revenues for 2026 and 2027 are 51.90 billion yuan and 54.68 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.32% and 5.36% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 23.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.86%. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 25.50 billion yuan and 27.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.45% and 7.36% [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.55 yuan in 2026 and 1.66 yuan in 2027 [6][10]. Market Conditions - The report notes that while there may be short-term supply disruptions, the long-term price trend for tin is expected to rise due to ongoing demand from the semiconductor industry, which is projected to grow at around 11% globally [6][10]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan to protect shareholder interests, indicating confidence in future growth [5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses a mining company involved in copper, lead, and zinc production, with a focus on their operational performance and production plans for the year. Key Points and Arguments Production and Sales Performance - The company reported a stable mineral production output, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in production from Qianxin, which is primarily sourced from Inner Mongolia's Xibu Copper Industry and Huokqi Copper Mine [1] - In Q1, the copper-gold mine production reached 26% of the annual target, indicating a potential to exceed the previously set goal of 168,000 tons for the year, despite a planned reduction of 10,000 tons compared to last year [3] - The company plans to conduct major maintenance in December, which is typically the month with the most adverse mining conditions [4] Financial Performance and Challenges - The copper smelting segment is under pressure, with processing fees currently negative at $30, leading to a loss in Q1 despite an increase in profits compared to the previous year [5][6] - The company aims to reduce losses in the copper smelting segment by improving raw material structure and increasing procurement of lower-cost mixed ores [7] - The overall processing fees for domestic copper are lower than imported copper, with processing costs ranging from 4,800 to 5,300 [9] Raw Material Supply and Procurement - The company anticipates a stable supply of raw materials, with a significant portion of lead and zinc needing to be sourced externally due to insufficient internal production [12][13] - The supply of new raw materials is expected to improve compared to previous years, with lower procurement difficulties noted [13] Cost Management and Future Outlook - The complete cost of copper and lead production is reported to be stable, with expectations of cost reductions as new projects come online [16][17] - The company is focusing on internal management improvements and cost reduction strategies to enhance profitability in the coming year [8] Project Developments - The company is progressing on the Phase III expansion project at Yulong Copper Mine, expected to be completed by late next year, with a short production ramp-up time anticipated [22][23] - The total investment for the project is estimated at 5 billion, with cash flow management indicating that the company can handle the financial burden over the next few years [23] Miscellaneous - The company has experienced a return to asset impairment of 60 million, primarily due to previous inventory adjustments, but expects this to be less significant than last year [20] - The company is actively engaging in exploration and resource expansion as a key focus area for future growth [24] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is not currently signing long-term contracts for processing fees, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations [9] - The Q1 performance of the company shows a cumulative revenue of 3.1 billion with a profit of 1.89 billion, reflecting a strong operational performance despite market challenges [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]