1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely, with domestic refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, causing concerns about the Fed's independence. In China, export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic cells are adjusted, potentially leading to export - rush actions in Q1. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Despite short - term weakening fundamentals, positive sentiment in the precious metals market spread to the non - ferrous market, and the Q1 export - rush expectation also pushed copper prices up. It is suggested to buy on dips but avoid over - chasing highs [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decline, and open interest increasing by 15,068 lots to 561,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and open interest increasing by 4,112 lots to 383,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract AD2603 closing at 23,445 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase, and open interest increasing by 306 lots to 22,296 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,659 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to par. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium purchasing sentiment, and costs continue to decline. After the environmental control of alumina ends, production resumes and imports supplement, causing inventories at manufacturers and downstream to accumulate, and the logic of spot converging to futures continues. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warrants may put new downward pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises are rushing to export, and the operating rate of the processing end is expected to remain resilient. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation eases, and the divergence between the macro and micro levels gradually converges, with the over - heating boost turning into a rational correction. Aluminum prices continue the high - level trend, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075/ton, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.04% to 141,520 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 600 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain strengthen, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons, which may put some pressure on the market price due to hedging demand. The Indonesian policy stimulates nickel prices to strengthen, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line, waiting for the actual implementation of the quota [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper rose from 100,240 yuan/ton on January 9th to 103,175 yuan/ton on January 12th, an increase of 2,935 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - copper rose from - 80 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased from 88,100 yuan/ton to 89,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased from 6,333 yuan/ton to 7,298 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME and SHFE registered and unregistered copper inventory remained unchanged at 138,975 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 2,760 tons to 469,921 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 353,000 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi aluminum price increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 24,390 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased from 23,700 yuan/ton to 23,950 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 497,825 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 6,501 tons to 97,413 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 129,818 tons to 143,828 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 730,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 144,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan increased from 13,200 yuan/ton to 13,300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered nickel inventory remained unchanged at 284,790 tons; SHFE nickel warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased from 45,544 tons to 46,650 tons. The social nickel inventory increased by 2,126 tons to 61,046 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 18 tons to 855 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 23,880 yuan/ton to 24,030 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The price of SMM 0 zinc increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 111,500 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 3,533 tons to 35,341 tons, and the LME registered warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 98,775 tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 349,000 yuan/ton to 364,320 yuan/ton, a 4.4% increase. The SMM spot price increased from 349,750 yuan/ton to 368,550 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,001 tons to 6,935 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 5,415 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 6,333 tons, and the LME registered warrants increased by 10 tons to 5,290 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides charts on spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals, covering the historical data from 2019 - 2026, but no specific data analysis in the text for these charts [13][14][20][26][32][39]. 4. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, mainly researching aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, focusing on lithium and nickel. They have rich experience and have won many industry awards [46][47].

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292- | 2026年1月13日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 368550 | 349750 | 18800 | 5.38% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 550 | 50 | 9.09% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 369050 | 350250 | 18800 | 5.37% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -30.00 | -39.00 | 9.00 | 23.08% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 我们 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13060.25 | -11338.32 | -1721.93 | -15.19% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.89 | 7.92 | | - | | | ...

Copper - LME copper experienced a high and then a pullback, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable [3][12] - LME inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons [3][12] - Domestic demand for copper is cautious, with transactions primarily based on immediate needs, despite optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.12% to $18,075 per ton, while SHFE nickel fell by 0.04% to 141,520 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local prices, but specific quota levels for 2026 remain undisclosed [4][13][14] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,821 yuan per ton, down 0.63% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum fluctuated positively, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan per ton, up 0.18% [6][15] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with expectations of continued production despite recent export tax adjustments [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,755 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices weakened, with the main contract at 49,995 yuan per ton, down 2.89% [7][16] - Inventory dynamics are shifting, with hidden stock levels increasing and speculative trading sentiment cooling [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures hit a limit up at 156,060 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 12,000 yuan to 152,000 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various lithium extraction methods showing growth [8][17] - Despite rising raw material prices potentially suppressing demand, strong market expectations and low downstream inventory suggest a bullish outlook for lithium prices [8][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term due to weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, geopolitical factors, tight copper mine supply, and high prices suppressing consumption [2][3] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high, driven by the strength of overseas supply - demand and the recovery of domestic downstream start - up rates, despite inventory accumulation pressure [5][6][7] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to stay high due to strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, with relatively average demand [9][10] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital [12][13][14] - Zinc prices are also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a large price increase compared to copper and aluminum, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial situation [15][16] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [17][18][19] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, constrained by inventory pressure but supported by domestic liquidity, and short - term waiting is recommended [20][21] - Carbonate lithium prices may see a "rush - to - export" effect, but rapid increases also bring回调 risks, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [23][24] - Alumina prices are facing multiple difficulties in continuous rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the option of shorting near - term contracts on price rallies [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper 3M rose 1.59% to $13,172/ton, and SHFE copper main contract was at 103,320 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 20,000 tons [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Fed rate - cut expectations are weakened, and geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The copper mine supply is tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum rose 1.33% to $3,191/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract was at 24,630 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level volatility of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has increased, and overseas geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The aluminum price is expected to remain high, with a reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract of 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum 3M of $3,120 - 3,220/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2603 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 23,340 yuan/ton, and domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory slightly increased [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side prices are strong, and there are continuous supply - side disturbances. Prices are expected to remain high [10] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.48% to 17,464 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,059.5/ton. The lead ingot social inventory increased [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital is intensifying. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [13][14] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.66% to 24,166 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,181.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has significant potential for a price increase compared to copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [16] Tin - **Market Information**: SHFE tin main contract rose 6.92% to 376,920 yuan/ton. The supply situation is complex, with some regions facing different problems, and the inventory decreased [17][18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - 47,000/ton [19] Nickel - **Market Information**: SHFE nickel main contract rose 3.67% to 144,200 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rebounded [20] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but domestic liquidity provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - 19,000/ton [21] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index increased by 10%, and the LC2605 contract price rose [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush - to - export" effect has raised demand expectations, but rapid price increases bring回调 risks. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 152,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton [24] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose 0.82% to 2,853 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider shorting near - term contracts on price rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan/ton [27] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased [29][30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel price is supported by the optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term [30]

每经AI快讯，白银有色1月12日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第三十一次董事会会议于2026年1月12日 以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举董事的提案》等文件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——年产量是传统大田120倍以上，1个人管理1栋楼！实探中国"植物工厂"：水 稻生产期从120天减到60天，没有虫害不用打农药 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the company, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (601212.SH), has approved the establishment of a gold company with a registered capital of 1.5 billion yuan, which has completed its business registration by November 2025 [1] - The company plans to increase the registered capital of the gold company by 240 million yuan after the completion of the capital contribution, which will involve transferring fixed assets and mining rights from its subsidiary, the copper company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved the establishment of a gold company with a registered capital of 1.5 billion yuan, which has been officially registered as of November 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company will contribute 1.5 billion yuan to set up the gold company [1] - After the completion of the gold company's registered capital contribution, the company plans to transfer fixed assets and mining rights from its copper subsidiary to the gold company, which will increase the registered capital by 240 million yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Macro remains strong, with the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosting risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthening demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - Zinc: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - Tin: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - Lithium carbonate: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market No relevant content provided. 02. Forecast of This Week's Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the slowdown in US non - farm employment growth in December exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate declined, boosting confidence in the economy avoiding recession. Fundamentally, domestic bauxite is in short supply in the north, and alumina plants' willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is weak due to the continuous decline in alumina prices. The domestic bauxite price is expected to decline further. The import bauxite market has a divergence in the intended prices of buyers and sellers, with overall sluggish transactions. However, the long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas supports future supply. Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, showing a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression", and high aluminum prices are the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and industry operating rate recovery [11]. - Viewpoint: Macro remains strong, and the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosts risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthens demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated at high levels. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat week - on - week, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 6.25 US dollars per dry ton. In January, the window for importing zinc concentrates in China remained open, and smelters' enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc concentrates decreased. The decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, and it will take time for processing fees to rebound. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 49.90%. In terms of inventory, after the New Year's Day holiday, the center of zinc prices shifted significantly upward, and die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was low, resulting in a decrease in raw material inventories and an obvious accumulation of finished product inventories. Terminal orders weakened, and new orders from enterprises were mostly concentrated on rigid - demand purchases. In addition, the price difference between copper and aluminum increased significantly, the zinc - aluminum price difference narrowed, and the zinc - copper price difference widened, leading to an increase in processing fees by die - casting zinc alloy enterprises [13]. - Viewpoint: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - **Tin** - Logic: In November, the shortage of raw materials eased, with an increase in the import volume of tin concentrates from Myanmar and Congo (Kinshasa). The operating rate of domestic smelting enterprises remained at the current level, with limited probability of further increase. The downstream semiconductor market is stable, but industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances are gradually entering the off - season. Recently, the sharp increase in tin prices is mainly due to the significant increase in the risk appetite of the metal market led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the price volatility of tin has increased significantly [14]. - Viewpoint: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Logic: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated significantly in the range, with the main contract rising 17.96% week - on - week to 143,420 yuan per ton. The spot price also increased. On the supply side, raw material prices rose sharply, the operating rate decreased slightly but production increased slightly, and there were significant differences in production processes. On the demand side, the production of cathode materials and power cells decreased slightly, but inventories were depleted, and the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles supported demand. In terms of inventory, the total inventory increased slightly, with significant differences in different links. In terms of cost and profit, the whole industry chain turned profitable, and the profit elasticity of lithium mica was high. Macroeconomic policies formed synergistic benefits, and short - term regulatory tightening measures were taken [15]. - Viewpoint: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 620 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 550 yuan per ton, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 67.61 US dollars per ton in the week of January 9, down 0.74 US dollars week - on - week and 40.65 US dollars year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 4.0423 million tons in the week of January 9, down 483,800 tons week - on - week and 186,500 tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 5.8804 million tons, up 1.1296 million tons week - on - week and 2.5927 million tons year - on - year [25]. - **Alumina** - Price, Cost, and Profit: The domestic price in Henan was 2,670 yuan per ton in the week of January 12, down 20 yuan week - on - week and 2,610 yuan year - on - year; the full cost was 2,714.3 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 59.6 yuan week - on - week and 734 yuan year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 171.67 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 27.14 yuan week - on - week and down 2,036.16 yuan year - on - year [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Total Cost: The total cost was 16,197.37 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 59.19 yuan week - on - week and down 5,054.46 yuan year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was 90 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 150 yuan week - on - week and 30 yuan year - on - year [30]. - **Downstream Processing of Electrolytic Aluminum** - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables was 59.6 in the week of January 8, up 2 week - on - week and down 0.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.7, up 1.4 week - on - week and down 3.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips was 65, up 2 week - on - week and down 1.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 48.8, down 1.9 week - on - week and up 13.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, down 0.2 week - on - week and up 3.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58, down 2 week - on - week and up 4.9 year - on - year [36][37]. - **Inventory** - Bonded - area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 41,000 tons in the week of January 8, up 2,700 tons week - on - week and down 3,800 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 55,400 tons, up 1,200 tons week - on - week and 1,400 tons year - on - year [42]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory was 730,000 tons in the week of January 12, up 46,000 tons week - on - week and 271,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - Weekly Outbound Volume of Aluminum Ingots in Major Consumption Areas: The weekly outbound volume was 66,100 tons in the week of January 5, down 33,500 tons week - on - week and 59,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - SHFE Inventory: The SHFE inventory was 143,828 tons in the week of January 9, up 14,010 tons week - on - week and down 34,646 tons year - on - year [43]. - LME Inventory: The LME inventory was 497,825 tons in the week of January 8, down 11,425 tons week - on - week and 121,450 tons year - on - year [43]. - **Spot and Basis** - Spot: SMM A00 aluminum [46]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was - 425 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 65 yuan week - on - week and down 210 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 300 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan week - on - week and down 25 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 390 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan week - on - week and down 85 yuan year - on - year [49]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Aluminum** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 125 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 100 yuan week - on - week and 130 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 35 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week and 150 yuan year - on - year [50]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and Processing Fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 20,755 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 12, up 135 yuan week - on - week and 657 yuan year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,500 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 450 yuan year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 37.5 US dollars per dry ton, down 6.25 US dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 7,668 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, up 598 yuan week - on - week and 42 yuan year - on - year; the import profit and loss was 398.7 yuan per ton, up 419.85 yuan week - on - week and 142 yuan year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 110,000 physical tons in the week of January 9, down 20,000 tons week - on - week and up 10,000 tons year - on - year [61]. - **Refined Zinc Inventory** - Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 118,300 tons in the week of January 12, up 3,500 tons week - on - week and 57,300 tons year - on - year [65]. - Bonded - area Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons in the week of January 8, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 2,200 tons year - on - year [65]. - SHFE Refined Zinc Inventory: The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 73,852 tons in the week of January 9, up 4,059 tons week - on - week and 52,812 tons year - on - year [65]. - LME Zinc Inventory: The LME zinc inventory was 107,450 tons in the week of January 8, up 1,125 tons week - on - week and down 109,450 tons year - on - year [65]. - **Galvanized** - Production: The production was 313,970 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,510 tons week - on - week and 4,520 tons year - on - year [69]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate was 54.39 in the week of January 8, up 1.41 week - on - week and 0.67 year - on - year [69]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory was 12,480 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,485 tons week - on - week and 1,335 tons year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 373,000 tons, up 10,100 tons week - on - week and down 20,300 tons year - on - year [69]. - **Basis of Zinc: SMM 0 Zinc Ingot** - Spot: SMM 0 zinc ingot [70]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was 110 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 190 yuan week - on - week and down 325 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was 60 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan week - on - week and down 565 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 20 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week and 720 yuan year - on - year [73]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Zinc** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 50 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 175 yuan week - on - week and 240 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 130 yuan per ton, down 195 yuan week - on - week and 395 yuan year - on - year [74]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.3362 million tons in the week of January 9, down 0.003 million tons week - on - week and up 0.0337 million tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 69.38% in the week of January 9, down 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.96 percentage points year - on - year [83]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory** - SHFE Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 6,935 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,001 tons week - on - week and up 582 tons year - on - year [86]. - Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in China by Region: The social inventory of tin ingots in China by region was 7,478 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,042 tons week -

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, Shanghai tin showed a strong high - level volatile trend. On January 9, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 327,000 yuan/ton, with large fluctuations in futures prices and significant changes in basis [16]. - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal in terms of both month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons. The cumulative domestic tin ore output from January to September was 56,500 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The domestic tin ore supply remained stable. The repeated process of mine resumption in Myanmar affected the price range. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [16]. - In November, the demand growth in integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white - goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging fields will maintain resilience, while the demand in some traditional fields will be adjusted. According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national passenger - car manufacturers was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase. The domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new - energy and semiconductor industries has improved; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest - rate cuts in the later period [16]. - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, under the background of mine - end interference, profits will remain at a low level [16]. - LME inventory increased slightly on a weekly basis; SHFE inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis; and social inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis [16]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts. The mine - end situation is unstable, and the futures price remains strong. However, high - price expectations may suppress demand and stimulate supply. The industry association has called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude. In terms of operation, hold long positions with a light position. Those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification and guidance of consumption data [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy - **View**: After - holiday high - level strong volatility in Shanghai tin, with large fluctuations in futures prices and basis. Supply, demand, cost - profit, and inventory show different trends. The domestic economy has resilience, and overseas uncertainties remain high [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions with a light position, reduce heavy positions appropriately. The reference support level is 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton, and long positions can buy put options for protection. Pay attention to macro - measures, mine disturbances, export speed, and consumption data [16]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3. Futures and Spot Markets No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than mentioning the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis figures. 4. Inventory - As of January 8, 2026, SHFE inventory was 6,788 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 7, 2026, LME total inventory was 5,405 tons, increasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 2, 2026, the refined tin social inventory was 9,309 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis [33][37]. 5. Cost and Profit As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 6. Supply - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. The domestic tin ore output in September was 6,263.28 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][53]. 7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile output was 3.519 million, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the output of electronic computers was 29.028 million, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's PVC output was 2.137 million tons, an 8.5% year - on - year increase; in November 2025, the output of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the refrigerator output was 9.442 million, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's washing - machine output was 12.013 million, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the color - TV output was 17.449 million, a 5% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's solar - cell output was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the integrated - circuit output was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [60][65][70][75][79]. 8. Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [83]. 9. Supply - Demand Table The table shows the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of tin from 2018 to 2026E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [86].