12月2日，港股恒生指数、恒生科技指数早盘集体上涨。 相关ETF方面，截至发稿，港股消费ETF（159735）涨0.6%。成分股中，快手-W涨超4%，比亚迪股 份、阿里巴巴-W、恒安国际、美的集团等涨幅领先。 东莞证券表示，当前消费环境呈现"政策支持增强、需求温和回升、结构亮点突出"的组合特征，在此背 景下，围绕景气度明确、商业模式成熟且具备长期扩展能力的细分方向展开，关注在品牌心智、供应链 效率与渠道能力上具备比较优势的企业。 华泰证券指出，2025年，新旧消费延续分化表现，"人货场"的变革与科技进步，正推动消费行业的快速 迭代创新与结构性成长机会，潮玩IP、美妆个护、现制饮品等新消费赛道涌现一批优秀龙头。展望2026 年，我们认为促消费政策持续发力有望激发供需潜力，内需有望延续稳健复苏态势，行业延续景气分 化，龙头凭借领先与创新优势，以及整合能力实现持续成长。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The market outlook for 2026 is generally optimistic, with expectations of increased capital expenditure (capex) in hardware and a tightening supply chain due to slow overseas production [1][5] - The AI industry is viewed as a revolutionary technology, but concerns about credit risks, potential price wars, and the sustainability of computational power accumulation are highlighted [1][9][11] Key Points and Arguments Market Trends - The market in 2025 is expected to outperform 2024, showing characteristics of a local bull market with rapid sector rotation [1][4] - Investors need to react quickly to market changes, as strong sector performance can reverse rapidly [1][8] - The consensus among investors is that the market is in a stable phase, with a positive outlook for the first half of 2026 due to anticipated monetary policy easing [2][7] AI Industry Risks - The AI sector faces several risks, including: 1. Credit risk, which historically has been a precursor to market bubbles [9] 2. The potential disruption of GPU monopolies by Google Gemini 3, which could lead to price wars affecting companies like NVIDIA [11] 3. Concerns about the sustainability of computational power accumulation [9] 4. Risks associated with private credit markets, particularly the reliance on low-interest environments [12][13] Economic and Policy Environment - The U.S. private credit market is experiencing a carry trade phenomenon, which is unsustainable in a changing interest rate environment [10][12] - Global supply chains are shifting towards a dual-track system, emphasizing self-sufficiency to mitigate risks [26] - Resource assets like gold and oil are viewed as safe investments, with gold prices rising due to various factors including central bank purchases and geopolitical instability [26] Investment Strategies - Some investment managers are increasing their positions in Chinese consumer stocks, focusing on high-dividend, stable ROE assets [25] - The performance of resource assets is expected to influence market dynamics, with potential implications for oil prices in 2026 [26][30] Additional Important Insights - Japan's economy faces significant challenges, including inflation, interest rate, and currency issues, which could lead to global market instability [16][20] - The U.S. economy is grappling with widening wealth gaps and inflation pressures, impacting consumer behavior and market dynamics [17] - The potential for synchronized recovery in China's PPI and CPI could enhance corporate ROE and attract investment [27] - The overall macroeconomic environment is less volatile than in previous years, with ongoing fiscal stimulus expected to support growth [15] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations.

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 01 日 哪些行业可能成为轮动的"下一站"？若市场继续追逐弹性，可能会选择"今年表现强势，但尚未明显修 复"的行业。从 SW 一级行业来看，电力设备在今年以来涨幅靠前，上涨 40.85%，但在 11 月 21 日至今仍下跌 1.22%，有望吸引资金关注。基础化工今年以来上涨 28.25%，而在 11 月 21 日至今仍下跌 1.39%，同样可能成为 轮动方向。而若市场避险情绪升温，则可能会选择"今年上涨不多，且尚未明显修复"的行业，如消费和红利品 种。此外，11 月以来的政策空窗期已基本进入尾声，市场可能提前博弈 12 月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议的政 策，消费、地产等行业有望迎来阶段性反弹。 港股科技和红利品种的调整幅度，已基本来到历史底部经验值。科技方面，恒生科技在 10 月 3 日至 11 月 21 日下跌 19.26%，从 2024 年 10 月以来的经验来看，其每段跌幅基本处于 20%-30%范围内；红利方面，港股通红 利低波指数在 2024 年 10 月以来的下跌分为两类，一是小幅下跌，跌幅处于 5%-7%附近；二是大 ...

Market Overview - The overall market has shown strength, with the index returning to a rating of 4.2 stars at the close [1] - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks have experienced similar upward movements [2] - In the value style, the free cash flow index has risen significantly and is approaching normal valuation levels [3] - Growth sectors, including the ChiNext and technology stocks, have also seen overall increases [4] - The Hong Kong stock market has risen, with the technology index leading the gains [5] - However, fluctuations in overseas markets caused a slight pullback in the gains of the Hong Kong market in the afternoon [6] Bond Market Dynamics - The stock market has been relatively strong, while the bond market has experienced significant volatility [7] - A three-year bull market for bonds is anticipated from 2022 to 2024, but current valuations are not particularly cheap [8] - The bond market has entered a bear phase over the past year, leading to a relatively subdued environment [9] - Recent regulatory changes regarding fund sales may impact institutional investors' bond fund returns, prompting some to redeem their bond funds and causing market fluctuations [10][12] - Last week, certain bonds and bond funds experienced significant declines, with Vanke bonds showing notable volatility [13][14] - Some bond funds faced "踩雷" incidents, with declines of around 5% within a week [15][16] Types of Bonds and Risks - Bonds are categorized into interest rate bonds and credit bonds [18] - Interest rate bonds, such as government bonds, are highly secure and typically do not face default risks, mainly experiencing short-term volatility [19][21] - Credit bonds, issued by corporations or local government financing vehicles, carry default risks, especially if the issuing entity is not performing well [25][28] - If a bond fund invests in such credit bonds, it may face significant price drops, leading to "踩雷" events [29][30] Identifying and Mitigating Risks - Identifying whether a bond fund has faced "踩雷" is relatively straightforward; a drop of 5% or more within a few days is abnormal for pure bonds [33] - Last week, some bond funds experienced declines exceeding 5% [34] - To mitigate risks, individual investors should focus on stability rather than high returns from bond funds [37] - It is advisable to prioritize interest rate bonds and maintain a diversified fund portfolio to reduce the impact of individual bond performance [41][42]

Group 1 - Wall Street enters a challenging year-end with optimism after experiencing its best week in nearly six months, reversing one of the worst November performances in over a decade [1] - The S&P 500 index has recorded a double-digit increase year-to-date, driven by the rise of "seven giants" in the tech sector, a strong U.S. economy, and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The market's rebound after a 19% decline over seven weeks ending April 9 is seen as a strong signal for investors, with historical patterns suggesting that mid-year double-digit declines often lead to full-year gains [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is approximately 87%, as indicated by futures prices, with the labor market becoming the Federal Reserve's primary focus [2] - The Republican tax and spending bill, effective January 1, is expected to increase spending and provide a strong combination of tax cuts and accounting changes, contributing to market optimism [2] - Recent volatility in tech stocks is viewed positively, as companies with clear AI profit paths are being rewarded, while those with weak balance sheets are losing ground [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the second half of December is typically one of the strongest periods for U.S. stocks, with an average return of 1% and approximately 70% of the time showing gains [4] - The market is currently experiencing a shift, with tech stocks giving way to sectors like healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary, indicating a broader market rally [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment among retail investors has turned cautious, with a net bearish sentiment of 42.7%, up from 36.3% at the beginning of the month, reflecting concerns over recent market volatility [5] - Seasonal factors suggest a slightly favorable market outlook at year-end, rewarding those already invested rather than those waiting for perfect entry points [5]

新华财经香港12月1日电（记者林迎楠）12月1日港股主要指数高开，截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.67%至 26033.26点，恒生科技指数上涨0.82%至5644.76点，国企指数上涨0.47%至9172.84点。 个股方面，腾讯控股涨1.31%，中兴通讯涨13.94%，泡泡玛特跌4.27%，紫金矿业涨5.28%，中芯国际涨 0.94%，建设银行跌0.24%，中国财险跌2.72%，耀才证券金融跌5.93%，中国黄金国际涨11.37%，五矿 资源涨12.88%，中国石油股份涨1.15%，中国移动涨0.52%，理想汽车跌2.29%，比亚迪股份涨0.46%。 成交额前三的个股中，阿里巴巴涨2.24%，成交超144亿港元；美团跌2.88%，成交超86亿港元；小米集 团跌1.76%，成交超78亿港元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当日恒指高开86.98点，开报25945.87点，开盘迅速拉高至当日最高26179.72点，随后回落，午后先跌后 涨，最终恒指涨174.37点，主板成交超2008亿港元。截至收盘，上涨股票1167只，下跌1015只，收平 1043只。当日，港股通（南向）净流入超21亿港元。 整体来看，多数板块上涨，科 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on December 1, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to surpass the 26,000-point mark [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.47% and 0.82%, respectively, indicating overall stable market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced upward trends, with NetEase rising nearly 4%, Alibaba increasing over 2%, and Baidu and Tencent both gaining over 1.3% [1] - JD.com saw a slight increase of 0.52%, while Meituan faced a decline of nearly 3% [1] - The commodities sector thrived, driven by rising copper and silver prices, with China Silver Group surging by 14% and China Nonferrous Mining rising over 10% [1] - Other strong performers included China Gold International and Jiangxi Copper, both showing robust gains [1] Shipping and Other Industries - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a nearly two-year high, leading to expanded gains in port shipping stocks [1] - Semiconductor, Apple-related, airline, lithium battery, and restaurant stocks were generally active in the market [1] Cryptocurrency and Other Sectors - The People's Bank of China made significant moves to stabilize the currency, resulting in declines in cryptocurrency-related stocks [1] - New consumption, biopharmaceutical, and insurance sectors saw some downturns, with notable declines in star stocks such as Pop Mart and Mixue Group [1]

投资者可以通过港股消费ETF（159735）一键布局港股消费板块上行机遇。 受盘面影响，港股消费ETF（159735）盘中涨超1%。Wind数据显示，该产品年内份额增长逾140%，吸 金4.66亿元。 港股早盘震荡走强，消费板块涨幅居前，老铺黄金涨超5%，思摩尔国际涨超4%，波司登、同程旅行、 中国旺旺、申洲国际、周大福、华润啤酒等涨超2%。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数从港股通证券范围内选取流动性较好、 市值较大的50只消费主题相关证券作为指数样本，以反映港股通内消费类上市公司证券的整体表现。 消息面上，近日，工业和信息化部等六部门制定了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施 方案》，提出到2027年，消费品供给结构明显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热点， 打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉全球的高品质消费品；到2030年，供给与消费良性互动、相互促进的高质 量发展格局基本形成，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳步提升。 有券商表示，本次政策所提及的系列供需适配实施方案，聚焦新兴技术发展潜力、市场热点产业链延 伸、基础市场场景结合创新与指引方向深化、消费端目标客群延 ...

关于港股后市 恒生指数高开0.34%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。盘面上，有色板块活跃，中国铝业涨近3%，紫金矿业涨 近2%；小米集团涨0.54%，公司11月交付量超过4万台。 东吴证券表示，港股短期风险因素在减少，但反弹确认还需要催化剂。从中长期配置来看，当前位置有 吸引力。该行指，如果美联储降息预期升温，有利于港股回升。此外，美股AI科技泡沫叙事有所减 弱，港股科技随之回调较多，当前具备配置吸引力。 浦银国际表示，"迎合新趋势，拥抱新消费"依然将是2026年消费行业的重要投资策略。在该机构看来， 以下五大消费趋势涵盖了中国消费行业2026年大部分的投资机会：(1)高质价比国产品牌将持续占领消 费者心智(比如连锁咖啡、运动服饰、美妆)，(2)情绪类消费的需求将保持旺盛(比如潮玩、美妆、宠 物)，(3)新兴销售渠道加速崛起(比如即时零售、会员店、零食量贩)，(4)中国消费企业出海正当时(比如 潮玩、咖啡、家电)，(5)健康类消费是长期趋势(比如银发经济、保健品与医疗服务)。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 中信证券表示，在增量资金越来越多的以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地 ...

轻工-行业深度汇报：供应链出海产业趋势开启 20251130 摘要 中国轻工企业通过产能转移至海外市场，如英科医疗、玉桐科技和中新 股份，显著提升了盈利能力，尤其在欧美市场占据重要地位，全球消费 市场份额高达 38%。 玉桐科技等轻资产公司通过租赁厂房快速扩张海外产能，其国际客户收 入占比达 40%，毛利率较国内高 10%，美盈森在墨西哥订单价格是中 国一倍以上，盈利能力显著增强。 全球经济环境变化对中国轻工企业出口影响显著，经历 2021-2022 年 美国去库存后，2023 年中期开始补库，欧美仍是核心出口市场，东南 亚、中东及非洲等新兴市场提供新的增长机会。 为应对关税及贸易壁垒，中国轻工企业优化全球供应链布局，如玉桐科 技、美盈森通过海外设厂降低关税影响，提高产能利用率，并利用当地 较低竞争环境实现更高定价。 中国企业通过加强产品设计研发和渠道对接实现海外扩张，匠心家居自 主品牌 Moto 通过参加国际展会，定位于中高端市场，凭借产品迭代能 力在欧美市场份额显著提升。 出海过程中，中国轻工企业在不同市场的表现如何？ 在欧美市场，中国轻工企业依然占据重要地位，占全球消费市场份额的 38%。 例如玉桐科技 ...