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贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global risk appetite has significantly increased due to the US releasing signals of trade relaxation. The short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported by factors such as the Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures to prevent RMB exchange - rate overshooting, strengthened domestic policy support, and the US - China trade relaxation signals. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations, treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The IMF has significantly downgraded the global economic outlook due to the impact of Trump's high tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade tension between the US and China will ease, and Trump has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell but hopes for a rate cut, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures have relieved the RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported [1]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as logistics trade, cross - border payment, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen slightly. With the relief of RMB exchange - rate pressure and strengthened policy support, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market continued to rise on Tuesday. The US government's credit damage, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and other factors will support the short - term strength of gold. If there is a correction, it may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but has greater correction pressure [2][3]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Tuesday, with a significant decline in trading volume. The real demand recovery lacks sustainability, and the supply remains high. The short - term steel market is recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures and spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday. The ore fundamentals are still good, but if the steel prices remain low, iron ore may experience a supplementary decline [5]. 3.4.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the operating rates of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises have decreased. The short - term ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [6]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand pressure is expected to be small. The 05 contract price will mainly oscillate, and the 09 contract has a large supply - expectation pressure, waiting for a short - selling opportunity on a rebound [7]. 3.5.2 PP - The domestic PP market quotation was slightly adjusted. Although there is new production capacity, the supply reduction on the supply side will relieve the overall pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [8]. 3.5.3 LLDPE - The PE market price was adjusted. The near - month price has limited downward space due to low - inventory support. The 09 contract's supply and demand situation needs to be tracked, and the long - term price is still under pressure due to new production capacity release [9]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - The copper price rose due to the weakening of the US dollar. The fundamentals are okay, and with the improvement of market risk preference and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening, the copper price will continue to rebound with short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, with significant inventory reduction. There is short - term rebound space, but it is still bearish in the medium term [10]. 3.6.3 Tin - The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term tin price will rebound, but the rebound space is limited [11]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean closed higher. The US soybean planting progress is slightly faster, and the weather conditions vary in different regions [12]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal - Since mid - April, the soybean meal spot basis has been strongly pulled up, but it may quickly decline later. The risk of a decline after May Day is relatively high [13]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal has entered the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has declined. The short - term price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to continue to widen [13]. 3.7.4 Oils - The inventory of soybean oil is accelerating to decline, the rapeseed oil is in the off - season, the Malaysian palm oil inventory has reached an inflection point, and the domestic palm oil is less driven by cost [14]. 3.7.5 Pigs - The current market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. After the second - fattening stimulates the spot price to rise, the demand matching is low, and the spot price may be under pressure around May [14]. 3.7.6 Corn - The upper - limit pressure of the current corn price range is due to weak demand and high inventory, while the lower - limit support comes from low inventory in the producing areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].