Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight upward trend in certain products, driven by rising raw material costs and positive market sentiment towards future demand [1][3][4][6]. Price Trends - As of Friday, the price for 201J2/2B 1.0 macro steel coil is reported at 7300 CNY/ton, and 201J1/2B 1.0 at 8000 CNY/ton, both showing an increase of 100 CNY/ton compared to the end of July [1]. - The price for 201J1 five-inch hot-rolled steel has risen to 7650 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the end of July [1]. Raw Material Costs - Continuous increases in raw material prices are providing cost support, with copper prices rising to 79350 CNY/ton, an increase of 500 CNY/ton from the previous week [3]. - The cost of 201J2 private cold-rolled steel has increased by 89 CNY/ton compared to the previous week, indicating stronger cost support [3]. Inventory Levels - In the Wuxi market, the inventory of 200 series steel has decreased by 0.28 million tons to 62,000 tons, with cold-rolled inventory decreasing by 0.41 million tons and hot-rolled inventory increasing by 0.13 million tons [4]. Market Sentiment and Demand - The initial week saw a significant increase in futures prices, leading to a corresponding rise in spot market prices, with traders raising prices by 50-100 CNY/ton [6]. - As the week progressed, market sentiment shifted, leading to price reductions of 30-50 CNY/ton as traders sought to increase sales volume, resulting in a decrease in overall transaction volume [6]. - The market remains optimistic about the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, with expectations for increased downstream demand [6]. Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with 201J2/J5 cold-rolled steel projected to fluctuate between 7000-7500 CNY/ton [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply surplus pattern of nickel remains unchanged, and with the cost approaching, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, being easily affected by macro news [3]. - For stainless steel, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound [4]. 3. Market Analysis Nickel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 120,990 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous trading day. It fluctuated weakly around the 20 - day moving average, with a daily fluctuation range of 930 yuan/ton, 40% smaller than the previous day. Affected by the 0.26% decline of LME Nickel 3 to $15,240/ton, Shanghai nickel followed the decline, but the decline was smaller than that of the external market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remains stable. In September, 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 have completed transactions. The mine - end quotation in the Philippines remains firm. The new transaction price of downstream nickel iron is 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bullish sentiment is strengthening. The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia in September (Phase I) is expected to drop by $0.2 - 0.3, and the premium is expected to remain at +24. The current supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and Indonesian iron plants mostly stock up as needed [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market transaction of refined nickel has improved, and the premium of each brand of refined nickel has been slightly adjusted down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,013 (- 12.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,676 (456) tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,825 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. It showed the characteristics of falling price, shrinking volume, and a stalemate between long and short positions. The daily fluctuation range was only 105 yuan/ton, 30% smaller than the previous day. The trading volume decreased by about 13,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,188 lots, indicating a decline in market activity [3]. - **Spot**: As the futures market is still in the bottom - building process, the spot market is also weakening, and the spot quotation has been adjusted down. However, the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the transaction situation has not improved. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,025 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is also 13,025 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 320 - 470 yuan/ton [3]. 4. Strategy Nickel - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the cost is approaching. In the short term, nickel prices are mainly in a fluctuating market and are easily affected by macro news. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Supply - demand situation**: Although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 28, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume decreasing and the open interest decreasing. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 27, the main contract of stainless steel fluctuated within a range, with the trading volume increasing and the open interest decreasing. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment is relatively large. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate with the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On August 28, the Shanghai nickel main contract had a low - level oscillation. The trading volume was 129,831 lots (- 67,021), and the open interest was 92,205 lots (- 6,698). LME nickel rose 1.12%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased [2]. - **Supply Side**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and port inventories were replenished. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed. In August, domestic production decreased, while production in Indonesia increased, leading to nickel - iron accumulation. In August, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits decreased [2]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary material production increased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On August 27, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated within a range. The trading volume was 128,526 lots (+ 25,799), and the open interest was 12,804 lots (- 5,355). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased [2]. - **Supply Side**: In August, stainless - steel production increased [2]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 62,600 tons (+ 8,500) [2]. Industry News - On August 27, at the "Stakeholder Engagement in the Nickel Industry's Decarbonization Roadmap" FGD held by the Indonesian Metal and Mining Entrepreneurs Association, illegal mining was the core focus. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association pointed out that there are still loopholes in relevant regulations that need to be coordinated with ESG standards of some institutions [2].

Core Insights - Qingshan Holding Group ranked 14th in the 2025 China Top 500 Private Enterprises list with a revenue of 406.6 billion yuan, following Midea Group [1][3] - The company has a strong presence in the stainless steel industry and has expanded into the renewable energy sector since 2017, focusing on lithium batteries and photovoltaic energy storage [1][4] Company Overview - Founded in the 1980s and officially established in June 2003, Qingshan Holding has grown into a large enterprise group with annual revenues exceeding 400 billion yuan [3] - The company produces a wide range of stainless steel products, including ingots, bars, sheets, wires, and seamless pipes, serving various industries such as oil, chemicals, machinery, and automotive [3] - Qingshan Holding has over 10 million tons of stainless steel crude steel production capacity and 300,000 tons of nickel equivalent nickel iron capacity, with production bases in China and abroad [3] Renewable Energy Ventures - Qingshan Holding entered the renewable energy sector in 2017, establishing a complete industrial chain from nickel-cobalt mining to battery applications [4] - The first company in its renewable energy portfolio, Ruipu Lanjun, went public in 2023, marking a significant step in its investment strategy [4] - Qingshan Holding is also backing another renewable energy company, Maitian Energy, which is currently in the IPO process [5] Financial Performance - Ruipu Lanjun reported revenue of approximately 9.491 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, but also recorded a net loss of about 65.32 million yuan [5][6] - Maitian Energy has shown profitability, with revenues of approximately 2.486 billion yuan in 2022, projected to grow to about 3.392 billion yuan by 2024, alongside net profits of around 199 million yuan in 2022 [6] IPO Developments - Maitian Energy's IPO faced opposition from some minority shareholders, reflecting a cautious attitude from institutional investors regarding the company's industry valuation [7] - The company aims to raise approximately 1.661 billion yuan through its IPO to fund various projects, including a smart energy storage product manufacturing facility [7]

Core Viewpoint - Qingshan Holding Group has achieved significant revenue growth, ranking 14th among China's top 500 private enterprises in 2025 with a revenue of 406.6 billion yuan, highlighting its strong position in the stainless steel and renewable energy sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Qingshan Holding Group, founded in the 1980s and officially registered in 2003, has grown into a large enterprise with annual revenues exceeding 400 billion yuan [4]. - The company specializes in the production of stainless steel products, including steel ingots, bars, plates, wires, and seamless pipes, serving various industries such as oil, chemicals, machinery, and automotive [4]. - Qingshan Holding has established a comprehensive industrial chain in stainless steel, with over 10 million tons of crude steel production capacity and 300,000 tons of nickel equivalent nickel iron capacity [4]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Ventures - In 2017, Qingshan Holding entered the renewable energy sector, focusing on a full industrial chain from nickel-cobalt mining to battery applications [5]. - The company has launched two key subsidiaries in the renewable energy space: Ruipu Lanjun, which went public in 2023, and Maitian Energy, which is currently in the IPO process [6][7]. - Ruipu Lanjun specializes in the design, research, production, and sales of lithium-ion batteries, emphasizing innovation in materials and systems [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Ruipu Lanjun reported a revenue of approximately 9.491 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.9%, although it still faced a net loss [8]. - Maitian Energy has shown profitability, with revenues projected at approximately 2.486 billion yuan in 2022, increasing to 3.392 billion yuan by 2024, alongside positive net profit figures [9]. Group 4: IPO Developments - Maitian Energy's IPO has faced some opposition from minority shareholders, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutional investors regarding the company's valuation [10]. - The company aims to raise approximately 1.661 billion yuan through its IPO to fund various projects, including the construction of a smart energy storage product industrial park [10].

Core Insights - Qingshan Holding Group ranked 14th in the 2025 China Top 500 Private Enterprises list with a revenue of 406.6 billion yuan, following Midea Group [1][3] - The company has diversified into the renewable energy sector since 2017, focusing on lithium batteries and photovoltaic energy storage [1][4] Group 1: Company Overview - Qingshan Holding Group, established in the 1980s and registered in 2003, has grown into a large enterprise with annual revenues exceeding 400 billion yuan [3] - The company specializes in stainless steel production, with a capacity of over 10 million tons of crude stainless steel and 300,000 tons of nickel equivalent nickel iron [3][4] - Qingshan's operations span manufacturing, sales, warehousing, investment, and import-export trade, with production bases in China and abroad [3] Group 2: Renewable Energy Ventures - Qingshan entered the renewable energy market in 2017, creating a full industry chain from nickel-cobalt mining to battery applications [4][5] - The first company under Qingshan's renewable energy investment, Ruipu Lanjun, went public in 2023, focusing on lithium-ion battery design and production [5][6] - Qingshan is also backing another renewable energy firm, Maitian Energy, which is currently in the IPO process [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Ruipu Lanjun reported a revenue of approximately 9.491 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [8] - Maitian Energy has shown profitability, with revenues projected to grow from 2.486 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.392 billion yuan in 2024 [8][9] - Despite some opposition from minority shareholders regarding Maitian's IPO, the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, with an unchanged oversupply pattern and approaching lower costs, being more affected by macro - sentiment. Stainless steel prices may stop falling and rebound in the short term, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, and the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 7 consecutive times, also influenced by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,620 yuan/ton and closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 196,852 lots, and the open interest was 98,903 lots, a daily change of - 10,364. Overnight, LME nickel prices rose 2.04% to $15,280/ton. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly between 120,620 - 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 121,690 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton or 1.11%. During the day session, it continued to rise, reaching a high of 122,690 yuan/ton, a two - week high. However, the open interest decreased by about 9.5% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 had transactions. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mine quotations were firm, and the impact of rainfall on shipping efficiency was small. Downstream nickel - iron had new transactions, but iron plants were still cautious and price - pressing in nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to fall by $0.2 - 0.3, and the current mainstream premium remained at + 24, with the September (Phase 1) premium likely to remain unchanged [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,500 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was a bit light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,025 (- 61.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (72) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,526 lots, and the open interest was 128,，304 lots, a daily change of - 5,355. Overnight, boosted by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weakening dollar, the main contract quickly rose to 12,915 yuan/ton after opening at 12,850 yuan/ton, then fluctuated narrowly around 12,870. During the day session, it was driven up slightly by Shanghai nickel prices but then fell back due to the weak spot market, closing at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.12% [3]. - **Spot**: The trading heat in the spot market rebounded slightly as the futures market stabilized. Traders' quotations were still cautious as downstream acceptance of high prices was low despite approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 480 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.00 yuan/nickel point to 940.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term stainless steel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The Fed's dovish stance boosts the probability of a September rate cut, which in turn supports copper prices. However, the upside of copper prices is still restricted by the "stagflation-like" environment and the uncertainty of the rate cut amplitude. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - Aluminum: For alumina, the market is under pressure due to the overall oversupply, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, it is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and if the subsequent demand does not improve, there is a possibility of a pull - back [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and the spot price is expected to remain relatively firm. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [6]. - Zinc: The supply - side is loose and the demand - side is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the overseas inventory reduction provides price support. The short - term trend may be oscillatory, and the reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [10]. - Tin: Influenced by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts tin prices. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [13]. - Nickel: The macro sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides certain support. The short - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be an interval adjustment, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. - Stainless Steel: The cost support remains, but the fundamentals are restricted by the weak spot demand. The short - term trend is an interval oscillation, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - side contraction expectation is gradually realized, and the demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend. The market sentiment is still weak, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around 80,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The import loss is 1,431 yuan/ton, down 118.6 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The price difference between 2511 - 2512 contracts is 15 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The import loss is 1,810 yuan/ton, up 15.64 yuan from the previous day [8][9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan or 0.74% from the previous day. The import loss is 18,280.69 yuan/ton, down 3,051.62 yuan or 20.04% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [13]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 1.40% from the previous day. The import loss of futures is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan or 25.52% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume is 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference is 420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume is 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day. The price difference between 2509 - 2511 contracts is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 660,996 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the subsequent support from the new energy sector [1] - The intraday trend of nickel and stainless steel was oscillating, with limited improvement in fundamentals and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. There were no obvious logical changes in fundamentals [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating, with limited fundamental improvement and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. Indonesia is expected to slightly lower the first - phase benchmark price in September, with a firm premium. There was rainfall in some mining areas in the Philippines during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited overall impact. The price of nickel iron remained firm, and the new tender price of a large southern factory was 940 yuan/ton. The salt plants in the new energy chain were relatively strong, the MHP market was in short supply, and some traders raised the coefficient due to shortages. New energy vehicle sales remained strong, and subsequent support still existed. The intraday trend of stainless steel was also oscillating, some spot prices rose slightly, and attention should be paid to the sentiment trend approaching the peak demand season in September and October [5] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, and the bottom support has loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7] Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan or 1% from the previous day; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 1 was 120,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.05%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 2 was 120,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 3 was 120,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.02%; the LME nickel 3M price was 15,280 US dollars/ton, down 305 US dollars or 0.07% [7] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 196,852 lots, up 108,077 lots or 121.74% from the previous day; the open interest was 98,903 lots, down 10,364 lots or 9.49% [7] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 22,025 tons, down 61 tons or 0.28% [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 1040 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan or - 32.9% [7] Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0% from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.31%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 was 12,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.23%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 was 12,975 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [8] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 128,526 lots, up 25,799 lots or 25.11% from the previous day; the open interest was 128,304 lots, down 5355 lots or - 4.01% [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 100,851 tons, down 175 tons or 0.17% [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 6.78% [8] Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,872 tons, down 1019 tons from the previous period - The LME nickel inventory was 209,220 tons, up 72 tons from the previous period - The stainless steel social inventory was 933.4 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous period - The nickel pig iron inventory was 33,111 tons, down 304 tons from the previous period [9]