1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 | 花生日报 | | --- | 第一部分 数据 | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7972 | -50 | -0.63% | 65,180 | 75.14% | 26,967 | 1.06% | | PK510 | | 8186 | -24 | -0.29% | 74 | 80.49% | 733 | -0.14% | | PK601 | | 8056 | -12 | -0.15% | 32,547 | 7.34% | 64,428 | -12.62% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2261 | -34 | -1.50% | 914,137 | 13.64% | 848,965 | -8.56% | | C2605 | | 2265 | -21 | -0.93% | 163,794 | 7.61% | 429,267 | 2.48% | | C2509 | | 2274 | -16 | -0.70% | 11,319 | -32.07% | 33,117 | -0.51% | | CS2601 | | 2549 | -39 | -1.53% | 153,327 | 28.71% | 217,169 | -5.09% | | C ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美叙事 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA目前对2025/26 年度美豆的预估值为单产 53 蒲式耳 / 英亩，期末库存 2.9 亿蒲（对应库消比 6.7%）。后续美豆单产或因 8-9 月产区降雨偏少进 | | | | 一步下调；（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至11月29日，巴西大豆播种率为86%，上周为78%，去年同期为90%，五年 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 均值为84.4%。根据BAGE，截至11月26日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆进度达到36%，高于一周前的24.6%，但是同比落后9%，比五年均值落后1%。未来两 | | | | 周巴西产区降水预期有所改善，阿根廷天气偏干利于播种。（3）12-1月国内大豆、豆粕预期季节性去库；明年一季度国内豆粕供应存不确定性，需关注储 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [1] - **Bearish Dominance**: Red dates, live pigs [1] - **Range - bound**: Rapeseed oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. Although the current supply is sufficient, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) December report and follow the progress of South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The spot market is inactive, but due to weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low rapeseed import expectations, the far - month contracts are expected to be bullish. Pay attention to the USDA December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November in Malaysia, factors such as floods in Southeast Asia and increased Indian purchases have boosted market sentiment. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips after adjustments [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish oscillations. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than the five - year average. Follow the South American soybean weather and treat it as a range - bound market this week [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound. The fundamentals are strong, but the spot trading is sluggish. It is advisable to focus on far - month contracts when going long. Pay attention to the import situation of Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Globally, the market is more focused on weather. Domestically, new cotton sales are progressing quickly, and the cost support is strengthening. However, there are still pressures from high inventory and hedging. Consider going long on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Bearish oscillations. With the peak of new product listings and the arrival of the consumption season, the market is bearish overall. However, since most of the price premiums from speculation on production cuts have been squeezed out, avoid excessive short - selling and maintain short - term observation [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish oscillations. In December, the supply pressure is high, and it is difficult to support the spot price. For the near - month 01 contract, focus on short - selling opportunities. The 03 contract is also bearish, and the short - term long - buying opportunities for 09 and 11 contracts can be considered after the supply pressure is released [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week; and the soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3111.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from last week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2474.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% [4]. - **Spread**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8770 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the previous day; the national average price was 8798 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [7]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared with the previous month [8]. Cotton - **Global Situation**: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, but precipitation in late November was unfavorable for the harvest. In India, new cotton arrivals are stable, but rainfall in late November affected MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the 2026 new cotton planting has started in non - main producing areas [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume exceeds 474 million tons. The sales progress is fast, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased to 446 million tons [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15022 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% [9]. Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the acquisition progress in other areas is about 80%. The acquisition price is showing a weak trend [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3062 tons, but lower than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The futures prices of contracts such as CJ2601 and CJ2603 have increased to varying degrees, while most spot prices remain stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises has increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply may decrease as the number of fertile sows has decreased [16][17]. - **Demand**: The demand has marginally improved, with an increase in pork sales, but the slaughter profit has decreased [15][17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) remained unchanged at 11385 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of live pigs was 11540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5][7] 2. Report Core View - The domestic market of soymeal is in a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", with prices oscillating weakly under cost support and inventory pressure. The palm oil market is in a complex game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations", and the futures price may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is weak. The reference view is also weak [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic market is in a "strong supply and weak demand" situation. Soybean supply is abundant, and port soybean inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The soymeal market is in a game between high - inventory pressure and cost - support expectations, with short - term prices running weakly [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating weakly. The reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". Supply - side pressure is significant. Malaysia's inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high at the end of November due to high production and slow exports. The futures price is in a game between high - inventory and weak - export pressure and potential policy benefits and seasonal production - reduction expectations, and may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [7] Other Information - For varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The intraday closing price is the end price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. Oscillation strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [3][4] - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6]

2025年12月07日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：若无意外利多，盘面偏弱 | 8 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面偏弱 | 8 | | 玉米：或有回调 | 13 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 棉花：涨势放缓 | 26 | | 生猪：弱势难改，基差逻辑回归 | 33 | | 花生：关注现货 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：维持震荡运行，高产边际交易暂时充分，短期超跌后技术反弹支撑，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 1.67%，是否拐点出现仍需确认，抄底不宜过分乐观，建议轻仓操作。 豆油：美豆销售进度偏慢，如果缺乏南美天气炒作则上方驱动有限，暂跟随油脂板块区间震荡为主， 等待升水故事，豆油 01 合约周涨 0. ...

我农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 本周，玉米近月 2601 合约领涨，远期合约跟涨。1 月合约减仓，资金向 3 月和 | | | | 5 月合约转移，近月期价领涨、远期跟涨，期价以上涨打破震荡局面，价格恢复上 | | | | 行。近期中储粮哈尔滨库收购价格较高，对黑龙江产区价格直接形成支撑，黑龙 | | | | 江部分产区报价至 2100 元/吨以上。期货上涨，北港报价也有所上调。 山东深 | | | | 加工企业早间剩余车辆维持高位，部分企业继续窄幅 6-20 元/吨。河北、河南深 | | | | 加工企业价格保持稳定。贸易商收购价格保持坚挺，未跟随深加工企业价格频繁 | 震荡上涨 | | | 变动。当前华北玉米基层购销活跃度不强，供需维持动态平衡。 销区市场玉米 | | | | 价格继续窄幅上调。期货盘面继续上行，部分港口现货库存偏少，港口贸易商报 | | | | 价坚挺。饲料企业高价采买意愿不强，销售利润偏低，市场购销活跃度一般。技 | | | | 术上，现货玉米报价延续强势表现，期价结束 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-05 现货库存充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2833元/吨，较前日变动-213元/吨，幅度-6.99%；菜粕2601合约2422元/吨，较前 日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M01+237，较前日变动+203；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+187，较前日变动 +213；广东地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M01+167，较前日变动+203。福建地 区菜粕现货价格2570元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+148，较前日变动-4。 美豆进口情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯， 咨询机构Safras & Mercado的调查显示，基于港口装运计划，12月份巴西大豆出口量估计为281.4 万吨。11月的大豆出口量估计为423.4万吨，高于去年同期的233.9万吨。10月份的大豆出口量估计为639.8万吨。作 物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士表示，巴西2 ...