1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. Internationally, the USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production remains uncertain. Domestically, low commercial inventories support prices, but new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns. The sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and the increase in domestic imports suppresses prices. The pulp futures price oscillated. Supply pressure persists due to high port inventories, and demand remains weak both at home and abroad [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,235 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. Domestic: Low commercial inventories support prices, the sliding - scale duty quota policy has limited impact, and new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns [2] Strategy - Neutral. Monitor peak - season demand. If demand improves, the price may be strong before new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5688 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5860 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Brazilian mid - southern cane yield and sugar content decreased [2][3] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and some institutions have lowered production estimates. Domestic: High import profits and increased imports suppress prices [4] Strategy - Neutral. The downside is limited, with short - term range - bound trading and a possible end - of - year price increase [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5136 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5790 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged. Some imported pulp prices increased slightly [5] Market Analysis - Supply: High imports in the first half of 2025, more domestic production capacity in the second half, but slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand during the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamentals are not improving, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for various futures varieties, including "Short - term adjustment", "Short - term bullish", and "Cautiously bullish" [2] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, such as soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks, market influencing factors, and trading strategies for each variety [2] Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on -

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal market still exists, but the domestic soybean meal market has shown a certain rebound, and the rapeseed meal market has started to stabilize. The price center of the soybean system is expected to move downward, and the soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to oscillate at a low level [4][5][8] - In the medium - term market, the positives for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. The soybean meal monthly spread still has downward pressure, while the rapeseed meal monthly spread may be strong, especially for the far - month spreads [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - US soybean futures oscillated. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded, and the rapeseed meal futures began to stabilize. The soybean meal monthly spread continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread oscillated [4] - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions had different changes; for rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions also had corresponding changes. The spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, and spot spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed different trends [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US old - crop soybean balance sheet is bullish, with exports basically completed and crush adjusted upward, resulting in a decrease in ending stocks. New - crop soybean supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area despite an increase in yield per unit. New - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited [5] - South American old - crop soybeans are in a supply - demand loosening situation. The production and crush of major exporting countries are expected to increase, and the ending stocks or exports may rise. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] - The global soybean meal supply pressure is obvious, with an expected increase in soybean crush in major producing areas and a slight increase in imports in major importing countries [5] - The domestic soybean and rapeseed meal spot market is loose. The oil mill operating rate is high, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a high level. The market trading volume has increased, mainly in basis trading [7] - As of August 22, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, the operating rate was 63.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 0.31% from last week and a decrease of 5.46% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 3.8% from last week and a decrease of 29.71% year - on - year [7] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. As of August 22, the rapeseed crush of coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, the operating rate was 12.79%, the rapeseed inventory was 153,000 tons, an increase from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease from last week [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty, but macro - level disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to drop significantly due to high demand for US soybeans [8] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean meal 05 contract [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread [9] - Options: Buy call options (for reference only) [9] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data for Brazilian soybeans of different shipment periods, including CNF, CBOT contracts, exchange rates, soybean meal prices, soybean oil prices, and changes in pressing profits [9]

棉花走高、玉米下挫 （一）棉花：高开高走 一、农产品板块综述 棉花上涨，商业库存不断去化，下游金九银十消费旺季来临，纺 企订单改善，支撑棉价上涨。玉米大跌，进口玉米持续拍卖，部分地 区春玉米上市，小麦饲用替代持续，新玉米丰收预期较强，供应充足， 玉米承压大跌，延续下行趋势。鸡蛋弱势难改，无力反弹，供应端蛋 鸡存栏高企，供应充足，旺季预期落空，需求不振，鸡蛋承压下行。 二、品种策略跟踪 焦点关注：玉米主力 2511 合约大幅收阴，将前日反弹幅度回吐， 期价受到供应充足的压力： 1.中储粮持续拍卖进口玉米，拍卖常态化，市场氛围偏空，部分 地区春玉米上市，现货市场供应充足。小麦饲用替代持续，下游需求 疲弱，深加工亏损，养殖业利润一般，下游大规模补库动力不足，新 玉米丰收预期较强，利空因素压榨玉米期价大幅下跌。 2.大连玉米主力 2511 合约报收长阴，再度跌至均线系统之下， 各均线空头排列，MACD 持续下行，绿柱扩大，技术偏弱，策略上轻 仓空单。主力 2511 合约支撑 2140，阻力 2167。 焦点关注：棉花主力 2601 合约高开高走，增仓上行，触及两周 高点，受到需求旺季来临的提振： 1.棉花商业库存持续 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 1: Market Review Futures Contract Data - **DCE M2601**: Pre-settlement price was 3128, opening at 3116, reaching a high of 3116, a low of 3079, and closing at 3088, down 40 or 1.28%. Trading volume was 1,278,955, with an open interest of 2,000,115, a decrease of 58,947 [6]. - **DCE M2509**: Pre-settlement price was 3088, opening at 3079, high of 3079, low of 3033, and closing at 3041, down 47 or 1.52%. Trading volume was 110,869, open interest was 182,385, down 44,763 [6]. - **DCE M2511**: Pre-settlement price was 3107, opening at 3081, high of 3094, low of 3048, and closing at 3055, down 52 or 1.67%. Trading volume was 128,296, open interest was 559,890, down 1,897 [6]. External Market and Weather Factors - The US soybean futures contract on the external market rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. ProFarmer started its annual crop field inspection this week. Feedback on soybeans showed that the pod numbers in most major producing areas were historically high, in line with the USDA's high-yield forecast for this year. However, weather is still variable. Currently, about 9% of the US soybean area is in drought, up from 3% last week, and rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks [6]. Group 2: Industry News ProFarmer Forecasts - In 2025, the average number of soybean pods in Illinois is expected to be 1479.22, compared to 1419.11 in the 2024 crop inspection. In Iowa's D1 region, it's expected to be 1279.25 (1108.76 in 2024), in D4 region 1376.15 (1254.09 in 2024), and in D7 region 1562.54 (1366.22 in 2024) [9]. USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending August 14, total US soybean export sales increased by 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Current market-year sales decreased by 0.57 million tons, down 98% from the previous week and 105% from the four-week average, while the market expected a range from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 300,000 tons. Next market-year sales increased by 1.1426 million tons, higher than the expected range of 400,000 - 1 million tons. Export shipments were 517,900 tons, down 3% from the previous week but up 9% from the four-week average. New sales for the current market year were 136,500 tons, and for the next market year were 1.1454 million tons [8][9][10]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as the ex-factory price of soybean meal, basis of the M09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is bullish on the medium - to long - term outlook for vegetable oils, suggesting retaining existing long positions and adding new ones in small amounts. It also maintains a medium - term bullish view on double - meal products and recommends new long positions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 22, supported by macro factors and pressure release after previous adjustments, the vegetable oil futures market closed higher. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all saw price increases and position growth, except for the secondary main contract of rapeseed oil which had a slight position reduction [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - At the global central bank annual meeting on August 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was extremely dovish, increasing the probability of a rate cut and boosting global financial market enthusiasm. - The US Environmental Protection Agency approved some exemption applications for small refineries, which is expected to maintain or increase the overall demand for biofuels, benefiting the demand for soybean oil as a key raw material for biodiesel. - Canada's AAFC estimated the country's rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate. The governor of Saskatchewan plans to visit China to discuss rapeseed issues. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.2% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of August 22, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,660 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,010 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Powell's dovish remarks increased the expectation of a US rate cut in September, and the US bio - diesel policy was favorable, leading to a sharp rise in US soybean oil. The strong export data supported the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, policies and macro - economic factors were positive, and the inventory of the three major oils rebounded, mainly driven by soybean oil. With the approaching of the autumn semester and Mid - Autumn Festival, demand is expected to increase, and the soybean oil inventory in factories may peak soon and then gradually decline, with the possibility of an increase in spot basis quotes [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, hold existing long positions and add new ones in small amounts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 22, rumors of state - reserve auctions and expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest weakened South American discounts, causing double - meal futures prices to decline [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The US Midwest Pro Farmer crop tour results showed a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans this year, increasing supply - side pressure. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, US soybean export sales met expectations, with new - crop soybean sales exceeding expectations. - Brazil's Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in August would increase [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,078 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,515 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, although the US soybean yield exceeded expectations, market rumors of Chinese purchases and possible state - reserve auctions eased the supply - shortage expectation for the first quarter of next year, causing the double - meal futures prices to decline. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was at a high level, but market transactions improved, and the upward trend of the spot price remained unchanged [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, new long positions can be established. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3].

Report Information - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [1][4][12][15][19][23][30][32][33][37] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research [5][12][16][19][23][30][33][37] Overall Core Views - Palm oil: With the negative impact of US soybean oil SRE exhausted, international oils are rising [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is consolidating at a high level [2][4] - Soybean meal: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][12] - Corn: Oscillate [2][15] - Sugar: Fluctuate in a narrow range [2][19] - Cotton: Futures prices are oscillating strongly [2][23] - Eggs: Near - term, focus on the rhythm of old hen culling; long - term sentiment remains weak [2][30] - Live pigs: The positive impact of reserve purchases has materialized, awaiting spot market confirmation [2][33] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][37] Industry - Specific Summaries Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.78% increase and 9,570 yuan/ton at night with a 0.63% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,492 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.83% increase and 8,428 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.75% decrease [5] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [5] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 30 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 178 yuan/ton [5] - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 3.03% compared to the same period last month [6] - The US EPA announced the results of small refinery biofuel exemption applications, and will return 1.39 billion gallons of RIN credit for 2023 and 2024 [9] - Pro Farmer predicted record - high average yields for US corn and soybeans in 2025 [10] - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was estimated at 18 million hectares, up 8.4% from the previous year, and production was estimated at 50.9 million tons, up 5.6% [10] - In the 34th week, oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume was 227 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%, 134,300 tons lower than expected [10] - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3985 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.28% decrease and 3996 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3088 yuan/ton during the day with a - 1.28% decrease and 3108 yuan/ton at night with a 0.45% increase [12] - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal was 3060 - 3110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged from the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.1 million tons, and the previous week's inventory was 97.4 million tons [12] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 22, CBOT soybeans hit a two - month high, supported by Chinese demand expectations and strong soybean oil [12][14] - **Trend Intensity** - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean No.1 trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2509 closed at 2214 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.27% decrease and 2219 yuan/ton at night with a 0.23% increase; C2511 closed at 2175 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.32% increase and 2174 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.05% decrease [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangdong Shekou's price was 2360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [16] - Basis: The main 11 - contract basis was 85 yuan/ton; the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 39 yuan/ton [16] - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn port prices were 2210 - 2230 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou's prices were stable [17] - **Trend Intensity** - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: The main futures price was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - Basis: The mainstream spot basis was 310 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19] - **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened [19] - China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [19] - CAOC estimated domestic sugar production, consumption, and imports for 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [20] - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [21] - **Trend Intensity** - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: CF2601 closed at 14030 yuan/ton during the day with no change and 14155 yuan/ton at night with a 0.89% increase [23] - Spot: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15272 yuan/ton, unchanged [23] - Spread: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [23] - **Macro and Industry News** - Domestic cotton spot trading was partially good, and cotton yarn market trading was okay, while the cotton fabric market was weak [24] - ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Friday, driven by US interest - rate cut expectations [25] - **Trend Intensity** - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2509 closed at 2920 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.21% decrease; Egg 2601 closed at 3434 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.67% decrease [30] - Spot: The price of Liaoning eggs was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan [30] - **Trend Intensity** - Egg trend intensity: 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Live pig 2509 closed at 13760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; Live pig 2511 closed at 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; Live pig 2601 closed at 14145 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [33] - Spot: The price of Henan live pigs was 13780 yuan/ton, unchanged [33] - Spread: The live pig 2509 basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 9 - 11 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [33] - **Market Logic** - In August, the planned出栏 volume of large farms increased, demand growth was limited, and the spot market underperformed expectations. The reserve purchase policy has been implemented, but supply pressure needs multiple rounds of reserve purchases to ease [35] - **Trend Intensity** - Live pig trend intensity: 0 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 8008 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7802 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase [37] - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8200 yuan/ton, unchanged [37] - Spread: The Liaoning 308 common peanut basis was 192 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 206 yuan/ton [37] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, the volume of new peanuts on the market was small, demand was weak, and prices were mostly weak [38] - **Trend Intensity** - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved significantly, while the domestic soybean has obvious inventory - building pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stocking phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oils and fats sector, the price of palm oil is supported, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable. Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase, and the near - term pressure is obvious. Peanut prices are stable in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the new season. Egg prices are under pressure due to high supply, and apple prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [5][10][17][25][31][35][43][53][59] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.73% to 1067.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.17% to 296.6 dollars per short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: USDA data shows changes in US soybean and soybean meal export net sales; Pro Farmer predicts an increase in soybean pod numbers in some regions; IGC slightly increases the global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year + 1%); My Agri data shows the soybean crushing volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory situation [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, with reduced supply pressure in the US, potential price correction in Brazil, and improved export pressure in Argentina. The domestic soybean has high arrivals and crushing volume, with obvious inventory - building pressure [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal are recommended; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [6] Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fell 0.22 (- 1.33%) to 16.36 cents per pound, and London white sugar price fell 6.4 (- 1.31%) to 482.9 dollars per ton [7] - **Important Information**: SCA Brasil data shows a decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region this season; China's customs data shows the import volume of syrup and premixed powder; domestic sugar quotes in different regions are provided [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10] - **Position Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5700; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Oils and Fats - **External Market Situation**: CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by - 0.52% to 51.41 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.71% to 4529 ringgit per ton [16] - **Relevant Information**: ITS data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20; Indonesia plans to increase palm oil production; Pro Farmer provides soybean pod numbers in some regions; Australian rapeseed production forecast is stable; the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. Domestic soybean imports and crushing volume are decreasing, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable [17] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short - term oils and fats may correct, with limited correction range; for arbitrage, the YP01 spread may rebound, and the P15 spread can be expanded after correction; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [20] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December主力 contract rebounding 1.7% to 411.5 cents per bushel [21] - **Important Information**: USDA drought report shows the drought situation in US soybean and corn planting areas; Mysteel data shows the inventory and consumption of corn and corn starch [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside [25] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the external December corn and the 01 - contract corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, expand the spread between November corn and starch; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [25][26][27] Live Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Live pig prices have slightly declined in some regions; piglet and sow prices have changed; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices are provided [29] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs has slightly improved, but the future supply pressure is expected to increase, with obvious near - term pressure [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [32] Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are provided; most oil mills are in a shutdown state, waiting for new peanuts; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable [33] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are stable in the short - term, but the new - season supply is expected to be sufficient due to the expected increase in planting area [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the October peanut contract at high prices and currently wait and see; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8300 option [36][37][38] Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas have declined; the number of laying hens in production has increased; egg sales volume has decreased; inventory has increased; and profit has changed [40][41][42] - **Trading Logic**: The supply of eggs is high, and the short - term bearish logic holds [43] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [43][46][47] Apples - **Important Information**: Apple inventory in the main production areas has decreased; import and export volumes have changed; apple prices are stable, and the profit of apple storage has declined [49][50][51] - **Trading Logic**: The current apple inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the new - season production is expected to be similar to this season. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [53] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [54][55] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell, with the主力 contract falling 0.06 (0.09%) to 67.47 cents per pound [56] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volumes are provided; CFTC data shows the change in unfixed call sales of ICE cotton [57][58] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken, and the supply of cotton is tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [59] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a slightly stronger trend with limited upside; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil & Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply and demand, price trends, and policy impacts. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as considering buying at low prices for some products and being cautious about market uncertainties [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures contracts decreased with increasing positions. Short - term auction of domestic soybeans brought supply pressure, and weak demand depressed prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rebounded from a low level. US soybean prices were strong despite high - record yields due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Short - term attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic futures market continued to decline with decreasing positions. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerged due to biodiesel policies. In China, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year due to US tariff policies. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops. The relationship between US soybeans and domestic futures has weakened. If no trade agreement is reached by the end of this year, domestic soybean meal prices may rise. The medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean prices were strong due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Attention should be paid to the China - US soybean trade relationship. The US EPA's policy on small refineries may cause structural adjustments in biofuel demand. Indonesia's policies on palm oil may drive up prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in the production cycle. In the long - term, the development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains. Investors can consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil price rose while the rapeseed meal price fell. The vegetable oil sector was boosted by the overnight overseas market. The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel fields of the US and the EU is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and futures prices may continue to rise [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract showed a short - term adjustment trend. The auction of imported corn by CGSGB had a low success rate. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The weather in domestic corn - producing areas is favorable, and new - season production may increase. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The government announced a central frozen - pork purchase and storage plan, which led to a higher opening of the futures market. The supply of live pigs in the second half of the year is expected to be high, and the spot price may continue to decline. The policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [8]. Eggs - Egg futures prices dropped rapidly in the past month due to over - capacity in the industry and weak prices during the peak season. The industry has been in losses for four months. If egg prices remain weak during the peak season, there may be a significant capacity reduction, which could support prices next year. Investors can consider buying at low prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract's main funds are shifting to forward contracts, with the far - month 1 and 3 - month contracts under pressure. Spot market prices show different trends in different regions, and the futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. In the domestic market, although there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil fell for the third day on Thursday, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to fluctuate. The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract is approaching the delivery month with reduced positions, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. Northeast corn prices are slightly weak, Jiangsu's new - season corn has a low price, North China prices are stable with limited adjustments, and the sales area prices are generally stable with some ports rebounding. The futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday. In the domestic market, there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, but the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in positive spreads between months [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, and the inventory pressure is increasing. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to decline on Thursday, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - **USDA Drought Report**: As of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3%, 7% last year), and about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected (previously 4%, 6% last year) [3]. - **IGC Monthly Report**: The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast is slightly increased to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast is increased by 1 million tons to a record high (year - on - year +2%). The 2025/26 global corn production forecast is increased by 23 million tons to 12.99 billion tons, the trade volume is increased by 5 million tons to 192 million tons, the consumption is increased by 13 million tons to 12.85 billion tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 16 million tons to 2.94 billion tons [3]. - **India's Rapeseed Oil Purchase**: India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August, the first in nearly five years, as the domestic price reached a three - and - a - half - year high [4]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, despite increased production and accelerated exports. In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [4]. - **China's Central Reserve Frozen Pork Purchase**: Huachuwang announced a 10,000 - ton central reserve frozen pork purchase and auction on August 25, 2025 [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The content provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [5][6][7][11] - **Contract Basis**: The content provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [13][14][17][24] Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0243534 and Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of experience in the futures industry and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3048706 and Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3032578 and Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [26].