Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; rebar recommends range trading; glass suggests selling out - of - the - money call options [1][9][10][11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommends moderately shorting at high levels; aluminum suggests strengthening observation; nickel and tin recommend range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][18][20][21][23][24]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to trade with a bullish bias; soda ash recommends shorting at high levels; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol recommend range trading [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][36]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a bullish bias; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][42]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 sideways; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; for soybean meal, be cautious about chasing long on contract 05; for oils and fats, gradually reduce previous long positions [1][44][46][47][49][50]. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations (e.g., the Iran - US conflict), economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors have different trends and investment strategies based on their specific fundamentals [5][14][26]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to the Iran - US situation and other factors, they may trade sideways in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The domestic capital market may remain loose in the short term, but the repair of the long - short spread may be affected by geopolitical and oil price factors [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal production has recovered, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The short - term price is bullish, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a narrow - range sideways movement. The valuation is low, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The supply has decreased, the inventory has continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the demand is general. The raw material soda ash is under pressure. It is expected to trade sideways with a bearish bias, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is under pressure from multiple factors such as inflation, a strong US dollar, and high inventory, but the domestic consumption season and inventory reduction will support the price. It is recommended to moderately short at high levels and closely monitor relevant factors [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The cost is stable, the production capacity is increasing, the demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is waiting for a turning point. It is recommended to strengthen observation and wait for a stable market sentiment to enter the market [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore price is strong, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The overall price is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and it is recommended to observe [18][19]. - **Tin**: The production has decreased, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. It is expected to trade in a wide range, and range trading is recommended [20]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision, the Iran situation, and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. It is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to relevant policy developments [24][25]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the short term, and trading within the rising - channel range is recommended [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is supported by alumina production and exports, and the supply may be affected by maintenance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and be cautious about chasing highs [28]. - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and buy on dips without chasing highs [29]. - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand, they are expected to trade with a bullish bias. Attention should be paid to relevant factors [31]. - **Rubber**: Affected by synthetic rubber and inventory pressure, it is expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [32]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agriculture and compound fertilizers, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and range trading is recommended [33][34]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both in a certain state, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and range trading is recommended [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short at high levels [36][37]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production has increased, the consumption has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The domestic market is active, and the price is expected to trade with a bullish bias [39]. - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is generally stable [40][41]. - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition is based on quality, and the market is relatively stable [42]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it sideways [44][45]. - **Eggs**: The demand is supported by festivals, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. It is expected to trade in a range, and be cautious about shorting on rebounds [46]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range. Pay attention to relevant factors [48]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as the US - China relationship and South American production, the price is in a low - level range. Be cautious about chasing long on contract 05 [49]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to trade at a high level. Gradually reduce previous long positions, and conduct range trading [50][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints -受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者需注意控制仓位、防控风险 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX黄金期货跌3.85%，报4376.90美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货跌6.22%，报68.12美元/盎司；沪金主力合约下跌2.83%，报980.08元/克；沪银主力合约下跌5.66%，报16841元/千克 [1] Important Information - 3月26日，全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日增加0.286吨，当前持仓量为1052.705吨；全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少104.21吨，当前持仓量为15409.46吨 [1] - 据CME“美联储观察”，美联储4月加息25个基点的概率为6.2%，维持利率不变的概率为93.8%；到6月累计加息25个基点的概率为19.9%，累计加息50个基点的概率为1.0%，维持利率不变的概率为79.2% [1] - 美国上周首次申领失业救济人数为21万人，预估为21万人，前值为20.5万人 [1] - 截至3月20日当周，土耳其央行黄金储备从820.8吨降至771.8吨，抛售约22吨黄金，还进行了约31吨的黄金互换交易 [1] - 特朗普称应伊朗政府要求将打击伊能源设施时间推后10天至4月6日，双方谈判进展顺利；伊朗官员称未就美国潜在袭击提出请求，已正式回应“15点计划”，认定美国谈判声明为“第三次欺骗”，目前无谈判安排 [1] Market Logic - 周四美伊紧张局势持续，美国延长对伊能源设施打击暂停期，伊朗回应无谈判安排；国际原油价格小幅上涨，美股下跌，2年期美债收益率上升约10个基点收报3.98%，美元指数上涨0.29%至99.92；叠加土耳其央行出售黄金消息，COMEX黄金和COMEX白银均回落；美伊双方立场差别大需调和，未来演变需持续关注 [1][2] Trading Strategy - 受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险 [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher across the board. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.22%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.02% [1]. - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward throughout the day, closed with a negative line, down 1.46%, with a trading volume of 1.96 trillion yuan, a contraction compared to the previous trading day's 2.19 trillion yuan [1]. Important Information - In the open market on Thursday, the central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 13 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 211 billion yuan [1]. - In the money market on Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.44%, also the same as the previous trading day [1]. - In the cash bond market on Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year Treasury bond decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.30%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.72 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.39 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.41 BP to 2.35% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 210,000, in line with expectations, compared to the previous value of 205,000 [1]. Market Logic - In the first two months of this year, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail sales all exceeded market expectations, and the growth of industrial added value above designated size also exceeded expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index rebounded compared to December last year [1]. - In the first two months, the sales area of new homes continued to decline significantly year - on - year, and the overall price of second - hand homes continued to decline month - on - month. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking [1]. - On March 18th, the enlarged meeting of the Party Committee of the central bank pointed out that according to changes in the economic and financial situation and the operation of the macro - economy, it will guide and regulate the interest rate level to promote the low - cost operation of the overall social financing cost [1]. Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, conduct band operations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unclear situation of the geopolitical conflict, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertain fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF, while being vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring to the stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics - The situation of the Iranian geopolitical conflict continues to affect the financial market, and the war situation has fluctuated. On March 26, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a series of large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in Isfahan, increasing market concerns about the further escalation of the war. Iran has responded to the US's 15 - point cease - fire proposal through an intermediary, but believes the US's negotiation stance is part of a "third deception" plan. The market's expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been dashed, resulting in a rebound in oil prices and a decline in major assets. The negotiation may still be in the intermediary - mediated stage, and it is difficult to reach a complete agreement quickly in the short term [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries on the basis of the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, and adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also prioritizes the rectification of involution - style competition and the promotion of carbon peak work, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, indicating that external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. Be vigilant about the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring, and it is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Sectors - **Financial Sector**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and risk appetite tightens. Stock index futures are affected by strong geopolitical risks and are in a volatile state; stock index options have a slight increase in implied volatility and are also in a volatile state; treasury bond futures have improved sentiment due to safe - haven demand and loose capital, and are in a volatile state [4]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: In the short term, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the risk of repeated conflicts. Gold and silver are affected by the repeated geopolitical situation, which raises inflation concerns, but the spot drive of silver is still weak, and both are in a volatile state [4]. - **Shipping Sector**: The opening freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month. The spot market has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The container shipping European line is in a weakly volatile state [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: The cost support has weakened, and the prices are falling from high levels. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as cost, production, and inventory [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are oscillating and rising. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The energy shortage continues to affect the market, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply, and demand [5][6]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The supply of pig sources is sufficient, and the price continues to fall. Grains, oils, livestock, and other agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. Among them, the price of live pigs continues to fall, and it is in a weakly volatile state [5][6]. 3.5 Market Fluctuation Data - **Financial Market**: On March 26, 2026, stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined; treasury bond futures such as 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year showed different degrees of increase; the US dollar index increased, and the US dollar intermediate price also changed; interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield also changed [8]. - **Industry Index**: On March 26, 2026, most industries in the CITIC Industry Index declined, with industries such as national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and electronics having relatively large declines, while industries such as coal and oil and petrochemicals had slight increases [9][10]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 25, 2026, energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil declined; precious metals such as COMEX gold and COMEX silver increased; non - ferrous metals such as LME copper and LME aluminum had different trends; agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn increased [11][12]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 26, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemicals, and agricultural products all showed different degrees of price fluctuations. For example, the container shipping European line increased, while gold and silver declined [13][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and changes in inflation expectations. The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to pricing and trading for stagflation and recession [4][8][41]. - The economic recovery in China shows signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still requires the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market may be under pressure due to inflation concerns [8]. - Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, while energy and chemical products are also influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as planting area, production, and international events [12][62][85]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US is reported to be planning a final strike against Iran. The OECD predicts that the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year. Chip stocks have seen increased selling. SMIC's revenue in 2025 was $9.327 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 93.5% [2]. - **Strategy View**: The conflict between the US and Iran affects global risk appetite. The hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The yield of Japanese two - year Treasury bonds reached a new high since 1996. The oil production in southern Iraq has decreased. The central bank conducted a net injection of 21.1 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile state [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell, while COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The inflation risk has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities for 10 days [9]. - **Strategy View**: The geopolitical conflict is the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum, but in the short term, precious metals will remain in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US military action against Iran has affected market sentiment, and copper prices have adjusted. LME inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories also decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: The Middle East situation is expected to be volatile. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and domestic refined copper consumption has improved. Copper prices may be in a short - term volatile state [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Middle East situation has affected the supply side, and aluminum prices have risen. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased [14]. - **Strategy View**: The Middle East situation has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. Aluminum prices may be in a short - term volatile state [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc rose slightly. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and the profit of the zinc industry has declined. The zinc price is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell slightly. The inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par [19]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the production of primary and secondary smelting enterprises has improved. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, with both support and downward pressure. The volatility may increase [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fell slightly. The spot premium of nickel decreased, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, nickel prices may follow the downward trend due to inflation expectations and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is expected to improve, and the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations within a range [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin fell. The production of tin smelters has recovered, but the demand has only marginally improved. The inventory has decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery state. Affected by geopolitical factors and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, tin prices are expected to be weak [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate showed a slight increase. The production increased, and the inventory also increased [25]. - **Strategy View**: The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, and the inventory increase is at a new high since August last year. The supply may be affected by the Zimbabwean mineral export ban. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the changes in the futures position, industrial events, and spot premium [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina fell. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the overseas price also increased. The futures inventory increased [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: The Guinean government may tighten bauxite exports, and the short - term supply of alumina has tightened. However, the long - term oversupply situation remains. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to domestic supply policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel fell slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the raw material price also remained stable. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Driven by raw material cost and policy, the price of stainless steel is supported. However, the supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fell. The trading volume increased, and the inventory decreased [31]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is still supported [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the positions decreased. The spot prices in some regions decreased [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, and the inventory has decreased, but there is no trend - driving force. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on costs [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis increased, and the position decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment is increasing, and the demand for iron ore is also rising. The port inventory is decreasing, and the bottom support of iron ore prices is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [37][38]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell. The spot prices of coking coal and coke had different premiums and discounts to the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure. In the short term, the supply - demand structure is relatively loose, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait and see. In the long term, the price of coking coal is still optimistic [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash fell, and the inventory also decreased [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The price of glass is restricted by high inventory and weak demand and is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. The supply - demand situation of soda ash is loose, and the price is expected to be in a low - level wide - range volatile state [43][45]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had premiums to the futures prices [46]. - **Strategy View**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession expectations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the impact of the black market and the cost and supply factors of the two products [47][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The production increased, and the demand improved slightly. The price of polysilicon fell, and the inventory increased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile state, supported by cost. The fundamental situation of polysilicon is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile state [51][54]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of butadiene is strong, and the production of butadiene rubber has been cut. The opinions of the long and short sides of natural rubber are divided. The operating rate of tire enterprises has changed, and the inventory has different trends [57][58][59]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to configure put options [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of INE crude oil rose, while the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils fell [62]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to start a strategic short - position allocation for crude oil. It is also recommended to widen the price difference between different oil types and short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [63]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol increased, and the MTO profit decreased [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [65]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed slightly, and the basis was - 15 yuan/ton [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - allocate urea. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [67]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis weakened. The supply and demand situation has changed [68][69]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large geopolitical impact on the disk [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The cost remained stable, the production decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [71]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of PVC is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [73]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [75]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The production increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [77]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [79]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [81]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of PP is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to production mismatch [83]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs generally fell, and the trading was not active [85]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [86]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable, and the supply was normal [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of eggs is expected to be strong, but the upside space is limited. The long - term price may fall, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [88]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted planting areas of US corn and soybeans have increased. The US soybean exports have decreased. The soybean inventory and crushing rate have changed [89]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran and the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards are negative for meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia has restricted the export of coal, palm oil, and its derivatives. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed. The inventory of domestic oils has decreased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran is negative for oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: China's sugar imports have increased, and the production and sales in some countries have changed [93]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran is negative for sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: China's cotton and cotton yarn imports have increased. The US cotton exports have decreased. The spinning mill operating rate has increased, and the inventory has increased [95][96]. - **Strategy View**: The new import quota is negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices in the short term and positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, the rising operating rate is positive for Zhengzhou cotton prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating" [9][10] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, leading to tightened risk - appetite. Stock index futures show a structural adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Stock index options' implied volatility has slightly rebounded, and the market is cautious. Treasury bond market sentiment has improved due to risk - aversion and loose liquidity, but there is still uncertainty [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Today's stock market oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.09%, the CSI 1000 down 1.44%, and the STAR 50 down 2.02%. Trading volume decreased by 240 billion yuan. Defensive sectors like energy and dividends strengthened, while high - beta sectors declined. It is currently a structural adjustment rather than a trend reversal. Short - term market is about style re - balancing. Wait for the right - side confirmation of capital indicators to lightly invest in IM [3][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The equity market had a volume - shrinking correction on Thursday. Implied volatility rebounded in the afternoon. Option market volume decreased, and the total trading volume fell below 10 billion yuan. Maintain the put - buying defense strategy and watch for out - of - the - money covered call opportunities [4][9] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The central bank's net injection of 21.1 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase kept the liquidity stable. Geopolitical uncertainties led to risk - aversion, driving up long - term bond prices. Short - term bonds were supported by loose liquidity. The short - term is relatively stable, while the long - term may oscillate. Adopt oscillating trend strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis, ultra - long - term reverse arbitrage, and short - term steeper yield curve [5][10] 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [11][15][27]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing significant volatility due to a combination of "hawkish monetary policy" and "geopolitical uncertainty," leading to a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while the stock market faces downward pressure [1] Oil - Oil prices have surged due to concerns over supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with WTI crude oil rising nearly 4% to above $93 and Brent crude oil surpassing $101 [1] - The hope for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict is fading, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing military options against Iran, which could include ground troops and large-scale airstrikes [12] Precious Metals - Precious metals are under pressure, with COMEX gold dropping over 3% to below $4400 and silver falling by 6%, primarily due to declining interest rate expectations and tightening liquidity [2][18] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to rising geopolitical risks and increasing central bank gold reserves [2][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have retreated, with significant declines in technology stocks, while coal and oil sectors have shown strength [3][10] - The market is transitioning from "trading on expectations" to "focusing on earnings reports," with high-valuation growth stocks facing pressure from rising interest rates [3][10] Industry News - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a revenue of $9.327 billion for 2025, a 16.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 39% to $685 million [8] Financial Market Trends - The financing balance increased by 3.16 billion yuan to 25.996 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3][10] - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Fed signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [3][10] Commodities - The energy sector, particularly methanol and asphalt, is leading gains due to cost-driven factors, while black commodities and some agricultural products are showing relative weakness [1][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the resurgence of concerns about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, precious metals fluctuated and declined. It is expected that precious metals will operate in a wide - range shock in the short term. One should closely monitor the progress of the peace talks between the US and Iran and the fluctuations in energy prices, and be vigilant against the risk of repeated geopolitical conflicts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Domestic and international gold prices fluctuated and declined during the day. COMEX gold fell by more than 2%, and SHFE gold fell below the 1000 yuan/gram mark. This was mainly dragged down by the repeated geopolitical situation, which pushed up inflation expectations and weakened market risk appetite. The US initial and continued jobless claims data still showed some resilience [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. One needs to be vigilant against the further deterioration of market risk appetite caused by the escalation of conflicts. In the long - term, the support for gold to rise is still strong [3]. Silver - **Logic**: Domestic and international silver prices both declined during the day. COMEX silver fell by more than 6%, and SHFE silver fell by nearly 1%. This was mainly due to the double suppression of the repeated geopolitical situation, which pushed up inflation concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar. In the short term, the spot drive of silver itself is still weak. If the geopolitical conflict does not ease, the market trading main line may gradually shift from "inflation" to "stagflation", and the suppression of silver's industrial product attributes will gradually appear [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, silver will operate in a shock. One should be vigilant against the risk of repeated conflicts. In the long - term, if the economic cycle rotates to the stagflation scenario, gold will continue to benefit, while the elasticity of silver may be limited, and its trend will generally follow gold. If the progress of the peace talks between the US and Iran exceeds expectations, the US economy is expected to return to the recovery path, and the elasticity of silver's industrial product attributes is expected to be gradually released [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2515.25, up 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial products index was 2545.38, up 0.15% [45]. Precious Metals Index - On March 26, 2026, the precious metals index was 3801.39, with a daily increase of 0.81%, a 5 - day decline of 1.02%, a 1 - month decline of 15.50%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.60% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The pessimistic sentiment in the base metal market has eased, and prices are expected to oscillate and recover. The supply side has potential support, and the demand side is gradually shifting to the traditional peak season, with consumption improving [1]. - Different metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, but generally show an oscillating trend. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Current situation**: On March 26, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -15 yuan/ton; the TC of 25% copper concentrate was -67.2 dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -1.7 dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main logic**: As the Middle East conflict eases, market risk aversion cools down, and copper prices stop falling and stabilize. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply of refined copper is expected to shrink, and overseas smelters have cut production. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline [6]. - **Outlook**: The macro uncertainty exerts pressure on copper prices, but supply and demand are gradually improving. Copper prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Current situation**: On March 26, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2788 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 415,268 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 3,599 tons [7]. - **Main logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the balance between upstream and downstream has improved, but there is still a slight surplus. The warehouse receipt level is increasing, and the spot price is rising slightly. The Middle East issue has affected the production of electrolytic aluminum, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices has also raised the cost support. In addition, the disturbance at the ore end has intensified the market's concern about resource stability, and the market price is running strongly in the short term [7]. - **Outlook**: The reduction of electrolytic aluminum production puts pressure on demand, but the policy of Guinea's ore provides support. Alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Current situation**: On March 26, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton; the spot discount was -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.371 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 339,500 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons; the warehouse receipt of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 404,742 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 69 tons [8][9]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, the US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. On the supply side, the domestic production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is high; the Middle East conflict increases the supply disturbance of overseas aluminum, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is still restricted by electricity and other factors. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the high price still restricts demand, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum is low. The support on the supply side has initially appeared [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, due to the repeated capital sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by electricity and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -100 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton [11]. - **Main logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains low, and the tax return policy and tax transfer may still restrict supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased. The high price restricts downstream demand in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased. In general, the cost support still exists in the short term, and the supply - demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, the supply side may have the risk of production reduction due to the cancellation of policies, the supply - demand maintains a tight balance, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Current situation**: On March 26, the discount of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was -15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was -20 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was -60 yuan/ton; as of March 26, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 214,400 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -5,100 tons [11][12]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, Trump released information that the military conflict between the US and Iran was easing, the macroeconomic expectation changed, and the pessimistic sentiment eased. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The previously locked - price zinc ingots have completed export, and the domestic supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new terminal orders are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. In general, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may oscillate and stabilize in the short term [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply of zinc ingots has increased month - on - month. Although the downstream demand has entered the peak season, the terminal demand is weak, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The social inventory has not decreased for a long time. However, the military conflict between the US and Iran has affected the supply of zinc ingots and zinc concentrates, and the rising energy price has increased the pressure on European zinc smelters. At the same time, the export window of domestic zinc ingots has closed. Before the overseas smelters significantly increase production, the LME inventory is difficult to continuously accumulate. Currently, the processing fees of domestic zinc smelters are low, and the recent decline in zinc prices will further compress the smelter's profit and stimulate downstream procurement demand. Zinc prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,250 - 16,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,300 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was -65 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton; on March 23, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 63,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 52,867 tons, with no change month - on - month [13]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has increased, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt has remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, the lead price has slightly decreased, the loss of recycled lead smelting is still large, the smelters have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly decreased. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [16]. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains high. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has gradually recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high. Lead prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,593 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -12 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -216 tons; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th; the Indonesian Minister of Finance said that if approved by the government, the windfall tax on nickel and coal may be implemented as early as April 1 [16]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the domestic production of electrolytic nickel decreased month - on - month in February, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to some extent. The overall supply pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory remains at a high level. The key is to focus on the realization of peak - season demand in the future. In terms of policy, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply - demand in February is still loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which exerts certain pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the realization strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance, which provides certain support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show an oscillating and strong trend, and the progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 45,736 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2,139 tons; the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the main stainless steel contract; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th [18]. - **Main logic**: The prices of raw materials remain stable, and there is still certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious. The key is to focus on the realization of the peak season in the future. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is running at a low level [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the realization strength of the peak season in the future. The current fundamentals exert certain pressure on prices. However, considering that the industrial chain profit has been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless steel is expected to show an oscillating and strong trend. The progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [18]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Current situation**: On March 26, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -25 tons to 8,780 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -387 tons to 7,757 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by -1,550 lots to 73,214 lots; the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 352,900 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -4,900 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - elevation areas, and the ore output in Wa State is expected to gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main producing areas is still fragile. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the high growth of the semiconductor industry, but the new global photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, the demand for tin ingots is expected to continue to grow. Overall, the supply risk still exists, and with the resilience of downstream demand, the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, in the short term, due to the weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, the price will maintain an oscillating trend [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, there is no obvious driving force in the short term, and with the macro - level pressure, tin prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,515.25, up 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2,811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial product index was 2,545.38, up 0.15% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 26 was 2,599.38, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a 5 - day increase of 0.86%, a 1 - month decrease of -4.40%, and a year - to - date decrease of -3.22% [149].