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铅锌日评20250702:区间整理-20250702
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 02:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]
永安期货有色早报-20250702
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 01:35
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/02 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 变化 70 ...
贯彻全会精神·看一线丨新材料引领新赛道
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-07-01 23:47
Core Viewpoint - The company, Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group, is undergoing a strategic transformation from traditional non-ferrous metallurgy to high-end lithium battery copper foil production, marking a significant shift towards new materials [1][2]. Group 1: Company Transformation - The copper foil production line at Yuguang Group produces ultra-thin copper foil with a thickness of only 4 micrometers, which is considered a hallmark of the company's transition to high-end materials [1]. - The company has evolved from a traditional smelting factory to a high-end lithium battery copper foil producer and supplier of high-purity metal new materials [1]. - The cleanroom environment in the copper foil production facility is maintained at a cleanliness level of 10,000, highlighting the company's commitment to quality [1]. Group 2: New Materials Development - Yuguang Group has established a new materials industry chain focused on high-purity metals, lead-zinc alloys, new energy materials, and rare metals, with over 260 types of lead-zinc alloy products and an annual output of nearly 300,000 tons [2]. - The company has achieved industry-leading standards with its 7N ultra-pure tellurium and 7N high-purity cadmium, showcasing its technological advancements [2]. - The company aims to accelerate its transformation into a new materials powerhouse, with plans for projects in copper, recycled lead, and a new materials research center, potentially reaching a revenue scale of 100 billion yuan [2].
中国创新服务能力日益增强(锐财经)
Core Points - The article highlights the significant growth in China's intellectual property landscape, with the number of valid invention patents reaching 4.97 million by May this year, establishing China as a major patent powerhouse [10] - The National Intellectual Property Administration (NIPA) is enhancing patent examination efficiency and quality, with a reported accuracy rate of 95.1% for invention patent examinations by Q1 2025 [3][4] - There is a strong emphasis on the transformation of innovative achievements into practical productivity, with successful collaborations between universities and enterprises leading to high-value patents [7] Group 1: Patent Growth and Innovation - As of May this year, China has 4.97 million valid invention patents, showcasing its status as a leading patent nation [10] - Various innovation entities, including universities and companies, are demonstrating robust creativity, contributing to the development of new productive forces [2] - The NIPA has reported a 37.5% year-on-year increase in patent applications entering examination through protection centers, totaling 109,000 applications from January to May [6] Group 2: Patent Examination Efficiency - The NIPA has conducted 84,000 priority examinations and 116,000 rapid examinations from January to May this year, enhancing the core competitiveness of industries [3] - The NIPA aims to improve the quality of patent examination by increasing the sample size for social satisfaction surveys regarding examination quality [3][4] - The introduction of artificial intelligence in patent examination processes is being explored to further enhance efficiency and quality [4] Group 3: Intellectual Property Protection - China has established 77 national-level intellectual property protection centers across 29 provinces, covering 80% of national high-tech industrial development zones [5] - These centers provide rapid pre-examination, confirmation, and rights protection services to 172,000 registered entities [5] - The centers have handled 38,000 intellectual property rights cases with an average resolution time of under two weeks from January to May [6] Group 4: Effective Transformation of Innovations - Successful collaborations, such as the one between Nantong University and related enterprises, have led to the development of over ten high-value patents, significantly improving road material durability and reducing costs [7] - The patent agency sector, with over 6,231 agencies and 41,026 registered patent agents, has a high patent agency rate exceeding 94% for invention patents [7] - The NIPA is committed to enhancing the service chain for innovation entities, providing high-quality and efficient intellectual property agency services [8]
铜陵有色: 关于2025年第二季度可转换公司债券转股情况的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-01 16:20
Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the conversion of the company's convertible bonds "铜陵定02" and the changes in the company's share capital structure, highlighting the bond's conversion period and price adjustments [1]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 12, 2023, to issue 2,140,476,679 shares and 3,336,626 convertible bonds to purchase related assets, with a fundraising limit of up to 2.146 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 21,460,000 convertible bonds were issued, with the bond code "124024" and the bond name "铜陵定02," which were registered on October 23, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at 3.38 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 3.30 yuan and then further reduced to 3.20 yuan due to annual equity distribution adjustments [1]. Group 3: Conversion and Share Capital Changes - As of the announcement, the remaining number of convertible bonds "铜陵定02" is 21,419,990, with the remaining amount reflecting the company's capital structure [1][2].
铜价午后增仓上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 13:32
有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价午后增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价增仓上行,主力期价站上 8.07 万关口,沪铜持仓量午后 上升超 2 万张。午后有色普涨,白银也上行明显。宏观层面,上周以 色列和伊朗停战,宏观氛围回暖,此外,美联储降息预期升温,美 元持续下挫,利好铜价。产业层面,Mysteel 电解铜库存为 12.35 万 吨,较上周去库 0.84 万吨。宏观和产业利好共振推动铜价站上 8 万 关口,预计铜价将维持强势。 沪铝 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 ...
冠通研究:易涨难跌
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 11:18
【冠通研究】 易涨难跌 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7,新订单指 数回升至扩张区 16040 间,非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在缩减与外国 达成全面对等协议的雄心,寻求达成范围更小的协议,以避免美国重新征收关税。伊朗 驻联合国大使强势表态:铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利,永远不会停止!基本面来看, 供给端,截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨,现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上,铜供应量依然在走强;库存端全 球铜库存去化,其中套利驱使下,伦铜大幅去化,美铜依然在快速累库,国内目前铜去 化幅度较缓,主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端,截至截至 2025 年 5 月,电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨,相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨,涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响,铜出口需 求增加,带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下,终端市场相对疲软,下 游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主,6 月系消费淡季阶段,终端家电排产减少,高温下 房地 ...
国泰海通|宏观:PMI整体暂稳,关注行业分化——6月全国PMI数据解读
供需整体回升,行业分化。 6 月供需指数回升,符合季节性规律。从行业看,食品及酒饮料精制茶、专用 设备等行业的供需指数位于扩张区间。究其原因,一方面,关税摩擦缓和后,出口链在供需端逐步恢复。 另一方面,积极财政发力,设备更新政策效果持续释放。相比之下,非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压 延加工等行业的供需指数继续收缩。主因或在于,房地产压力之下,终端需求不足。这一点价格指数也有 所体现。 6 月制造业价格指数回升,主要受中东局势紧张,油价飙升的推动。而黑色冶炼行业的价格指数 持续回落。 非制造业景气度:服务平稳,建筑分化。 服务业的商务活动指数略降,基本保持平稳。从行业看,邮政、 电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、互联网软件及信息技术服务等生产性行业的商务活动指数位于较高景气区 间;但是五一假期效应消退后,零售、道路运输、航空运输、住宿、餐饮、房地产等行业商务活动指数均 低于临界点。此外,建筑业景气度超季节性回升,子行业的分化值得关注。一方面,土木工程建筑业商务 活动连续三个月处于较高景气区间。另一方面,商品房需求在二季度较为疲软,可能对整体建筑业景气度 有所拖累。 政策或不断积极。 在关税摩擦缓和后,内部解决好低通 ...
有色及贵金属日度数据简报-20250701
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 10:34
| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/7/1 | 莫骁雄 | 王荣 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0019413 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | 王宗源(联系人) | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/7/1 | 2025/6/30 | 2025/6/24 | 20 ...
美欧关税谈判“大限将至”,欧盟列出哪四种可能?哪些领域绝不妥协?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 10:18
Core Points - The article discusses the potential outcomes of the upcoming US-EU trade negotiations, highlighting four possible scenarios that could unfold before the July 9 deadline [1][3][4] - The EU has shown a willingness to accept a 10% tariff on various goods, while seeking commitments from the US to lower tariffs in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1][3] - The EU has made it clear that digital legislation will not be part of the trade negotiations, maintaining its sovereignty over regulatory decisions [5][6] Group 1: Potential Scenarios - Four potential scenarios outlined by EU officials include: reaching an acceptable but asymmetric agreement, the US proposing an unacceptable agreement, extending the deadline for negotiations, or the Trump administration exiting the talks and raising tariffs [1][3] - The most likely scenario involves the EU retaliating against the US if the Trump administration withdraws from negotiations and increases tariffs [4] Group 2: Tariff Discussions - The EU is pushing for the US to significantly reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, which are currently at 25%, and on steel and aluminum products, which are at 50% [3][4] - The EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff marks a shift from its initial stance against such a rate, indicating a potential compromise in negotiations [3] Group 3: Digital Legislation - The EU has explicitly stated that its digital market and service laws will not be included in the trade talks, emphasizing its commitment to existing regulations [5][6] - The EU's digital market law aims to regulate major tech companies, predominantly US firms, and has already resulted in significant fines for companies like Apple and Meta [5][6] Group 4: Trade Data and Implications - The EU estimates that US tariffs currently cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, which constitutes about 70% of its total exports to the US [7] - In 2024, the EU exported $52.8 billion worth of automobiles and parts to the US, making it the largest export destination for these products [7]